Has the best situation in the run home of the main contenders would think.
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter PowerfulPies2023
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- Mar 25, 2019
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After this round I've got Cripps on 24-26 votes
Give or take 1-2 annual howlers and 1-2 shit games that miraculously got 3 votes out of the blue.
Give or take 1-2 annual howlers and 1-2 shit games that miraculously got 3 votes out of the blue.
What do you have Neale on?
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
23-25
- Mar 25, 2019
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17-19
- Feb 25, 2013
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Yes but the same was said last year
Gift
Norm Smith Medallist
Exactly... two bs 3 vote games out of his arse gets him there.
The umps can barely umpire the game properly so theres no way their voting is going to be inline with any game by game predictors.
Some players are overpollers and some underpollers. Neale/Cripps types are overpollers.
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umps get bagged for this all the time yet they do a pretty remarkable job overall, if they didn't then coaches votes wouldn't correlate so well with them.
Neale was 6th favourite and this comparison that got posted in last years thread shows how close he was, he wasn't a massive upset who had no right of winning.
They have 3 less wins than last year, he has played one less match, he is not going to be on what he had last year at this stage.
Hope everyone had already cashed out on Heeney
Gift
Norm Smith Medallist
We just have different standards for the umps which is fair enough. Plenty of examples like Neale getting the 3 in R6 with 20 possies instead of Cameron when he kicked 7 which is damn hard for a small forward is why I have my view.
I didnt look at my tally when I made the reply that Neale can poll out of his arse. He very likely isnt on 23-25 but he can easily poll plenty of 3s in the remaining games to catch up. Looking at articles it said he was 5th fav last year at $13. To me $13 is a fair upset but no non trolling person is going to say he has no right of winning since hes always polled well playing for the Lions.
Also the coaches votes awards 30 votes to up to 10 players per game so it captures a larger pool of players whereas the Brownlow awards 6 votes per game to 3 players. They are very different voting systems to even compare. Midfielders are around the ball way more so the same players are going to show up in both awards. Thats why I find it dumb when people say "brownlow is so stupid, its such a midfielders award"... its because midfielders run around chasing the ball the whole game whereas players in other positions dont so midfielders are going to consistently have more influence, be seen more and get more votes over their 23 games.
70% of 10 coaches votes are 3s for Brownlow, its one of the stronger external counts to help in brownlow modelling, this is what I meant.
All awards have examples of bad votes being given out, just need to look at the Herald Sun each week, Coaches have their favourites also. AFL MVP is voted by the players, half of whom don't watch footy probably.
Overall I would say the umpires do a good job overall at it, never going to please everyone, you have mentioned why they show their bias which should be used in anybody's own handicapping of the brownlow.
Gift
Norm Smith Medallist
70% of 10 coaches votes being a 3 is a surprise to me. If thats the case then its a very fair point.
Herald Sun would depend on who gives the votes since a lot of them probably dont even watch the game as they would be busy and probably just base it on stats.
I think most coaches dont play favourites. They just view the game different to everyone else since they would know all the player roles. They will give taggers and interceptors votes if they excelled in their role whereas umps would never give these guys brownlow votes.
I dont think the umps purposely vote with bias either unless a player is mean to them. Some of them have other jobs and just dont have the time to understand the game to the extent where they excel at choosing which players have most influence. They will also be focused on umpiring so most of the play would be a blur to them which is why they will stick to who they know like the Neales, Cripps etc
- Mar 25, 2019
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Shouldn't get any. He was invisible in the 2nd half.
- Mar 25, 2019
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Cripps 3 votes tonight would make him extremely hard to catch I reckon. Games vs North, WCE, Hawthorn and Saints to come. Pies as well who he tends to perform well against.
Plenty on the line tonight in his 200th
Plenty on the line tonight in his 200th
Mara 3 Crippa 2?
- Mar 25, 2019
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Western Bulldogs - C.Curnow 3 votes
Cost Crippa the 3
- Mar 25, 2019
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They sure know how to shit on someone's milestone game this team
3 Dale 2 JUH 1 Cripps for me
- May 20, 2016
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neale playing for 2nd from the mighty crippa
- Mar 25, 2019
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How often do we see HBF's get votes though?
- May 20, 2016
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crippa minimum 2 on saturday, maybe even the 3 he was insane and game was tight
