AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[stusubz]

trifectas, first four's are out on TAB, plenty of value in first 4 boxed... keep in mind the dead heat rule!

 

[Geeves Train]

trifectas, first four's are out on TAB, plenty of value in first 4 boxed... keep in mind the dead heat rule!

Dont understand how the exactas for:
Lachie Neale/Nick Daicos
Lachie Neale/Patrick Cripps

Are shorter than:
Patrick Cripps/Lachie Neale
Nick Daicos/Lachie Neale

Like if Neale does crack top 2 isn’t it far more likely it’ll be 2nd than 1st?

 

[stusubz]

i agree, almost like a bait to go away from cripps/daicos bet maybe?? Weird??

 

[stusubz]

which exacta do you like?
I rekon Cripps/Neale is the standout ??

 

[stusubz]

I think someone may have stuffed up?? the odds could change soon... $21 Cripps/Neale (Exacta)... lets see what those odds do?

 

[NSWCROW]

opening round confuses things, Gawn to poll R1, 11, ?3 ?7 IMO

Got him BOG in 1 and 11
1 vote in 13 and 0 in 17

FWIW

 

[Geeves Train]

which exacta do you like?
I rekon Cripps/Neale is the standout ??

This was the bet I had on open. It was $23 and I got Cripps 37, Naicos 33, Neale 32.5. Seems value off my count and just so much more likely than Neale/Cripps at $17.

 

[NSWCROW]

Caldwell 25 touches, 9 clearances, 6 inside 50's, 5 tackles & team won by 40 getting overlooked here

I had it

LDU
Caldwell
Wright

 

[NSWCROW]

Can I ask what people have LDU vs Sheezel on?

I have LDU, trying to see how it’s $2 vs $2.. considering LDU polled really well last year

My NM votes -

17 - LDU
9 - sheezel
5 - Xerri, Wardlaw, Larkey
2 - simpkin
1 - McKercher, Powell

 

[NYRB]

I had it

LDU
Caldwell
Wright

The thing about Caldwell, was I thought he had a fairly good season. In fact, I reckon he can have a breakout Brownlow year. Has only polled 2 career votes from 78 games.

North Melbourne overall were +14 in clearances as a team that day. Usually Parish would be the Bombers number 2 guy in midfield , if the chips are down with their number 1. Parish didnt play. Caldwell had 9 clearances. If you had asked me what number he had after that game without looking at the stat sheet, I wouldnt have guessed it would have been that high, I hardly noticed him. A bit of an analogy, It was like eye candy with a lady with Guelfi, but the more trustworthy one , the one that was marriage material was sitting in the corner. Fox (who had coverage of the game) were talking up alot about Guelfis 100 but not much was said about Caldwells game throughout.

If there is a 'To Poll a Vote ' market in 2024 Count, those 3 players from a bit left-field probably have to have a look-in. Guelfi, Ben McKay and/or Jake Kelly. Am I dreaming if I can get prices of around $2.25+, $4s+, $6s+ for each of those 3 players? If there is a game where someone can sneak in votes Id imagine it would be that one.

 

[NYRB]

There has been a few glitches in my spreadsheet this year. Have had saving and technical problems with alot of games. Sometimes computer randomly turns off and restarts.

Rd 18 Western Bulldogs v Carlton, I originally had 3) H McKay 2) Weitering 1) Cripps. (up until 24 hours ago). That order did seem somewhat right up until half time. H McKay was best player in 1st half.

Im not sure how I had that. Might have to look for a computer upgrade from my side as silly laptop has been having issues. Am keen for any computer brands recommendations from forumites here. Upon 2nd review, I went 3) Ugle-Hagan 2) Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

28

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

1) Cripps.

Cripps could sneak the 2 here. The 2 votes is generally a toss up. Although Ill back my initial instinct watching it tonight.

After reviewing Round 0 and Round 18 Carlton games, I feel somewhat confident Curnow wins Carlton Most Votes W/O Cripps and Walsh. That is being priced around $2.00, I also see TAB have that at $1.75. Saw $3 when it opened but thats now long gone.

 

[Johanpetro]

Group C on Sportsbet I’ve got Holmes winning at $6. Don’t think Sheezel and LDU should be favs. Thoughts?

Sheezel $5
LDU $5
Whitfield $5.50
Holmes $6
Flanders $6
Sinclair $9
Zorko $10
Moore $10

 

[burge13]

Group C on Sportsbet I’ve got Holmes winning at $6. Don’t think Sheezel and LDU should be favs. Thoughts?

Sheezel $5
LDU $5
Whitfield $5.50
Holmes $6
Flanders $6
Sinclair $9
Zorko $10
Moore $10

Seems crazy for a team that got thumped most weeks being favs...

 

[NYRB]

Yeah Rozee looks to be good value in this market, $3 won't stay at that price for long you wouldn't think.

Sportsbet


Brownlow Group B
Rowan Marshall 3.75
McCluggage 4
Walsh 4.50
Wines 7
Gawn 10
Rozee 12
Young 13
Hogan 18


Sportsbet have Rozee $3 Top 20, Wines $9 Top 20.

Some unusual pricing in Sportsbet for Rozee. You would think that if Rozee is $3 for Top 20, he would be shorter in the Group B betting market in comparison to Wines.

 

[BOOYAH1987]

There has been a few glitches in my spreadsheet this year. Have had saving and technical problems with alot of games. Sometimes computer randomly turns off and restarts.

Rd 18 Western Bulldogs v Carlton, I originally had 3) H McKay 2) Weitering 1) Cripps. (up until 24 hours ago). That order did seem somewhat right up until half time. H McKay was best player in 1st half.

Im not sure how I had that. Might have to look for a computer upgrade from my side as silly laptop has been having issues. Am keen for any computer brands recommendations from forumites here. Upon 2nd review, I went 3) Ugle-Hagan 2) Bailey Dale 1) Cripps.

Cripps could sneak the 2 here. The 2 votes is generally a toss up. Although Ill back my initial instinct watching it tonight.

After reviewing Round 0 and Round 18 Carlton games, I feel somewhat confident Curnow wins Carlton Most Votes W/O Cripps and Walsh. That is being priced around $2.00, I also see TAB have that at $1.75. Saw $3 when it opened but thats now long gone.

3) Jamarra
2) Cripps
1) Dale

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Sportsbet


Brownlow Group B
Rowan Marshall 3.75
McCluggage 4
Walsh 4.50
Wines 7
Gawn 10
Rozee 12
Young 13
Hogan 18


Sportsbet have Rozee $3 Top 20, Wines $9 Top 20.

Some unusual pricing in Sportsbet for Rozee. You would think that if Rozee is $3 for Top 20, he would be shorter in the Group B betting market in comparison to Wines.

Port Adelaide must have had an outstanding year.

Butters, Rozee, Horne-Francis and Wines all finishing in the top 20.

 

[Spooka]

Hey all! What are people’s thoughts on Ports count? Personally I reckon JHF is going to surprise and win ports and over poll. The umps seem to love him, his had a far better year than last year. And Rozzee and butters have both had lesser years then last. JHF sorta reminds of a Fyfe where 20+ touches couple of goals could give him the 2 / 3 votes. Sounds silly but the socks up and hair, you just notice even watching on TV.

20+ votes is $2 and 25 votes is $34, most predictors have him 18-21, could he over poll and hit the 25? Port won 16 games and a few close losses. Might be worth a small wager?

(I have him 22, but gonna chuck a little on 25 votes)

 

[Johanpetro]

Hey all! What are people’s thoughts on Ports count? Personally I reckon JHF is going to surprise and win ports and over poll. The umps seem to love him, his had a far better year than last year. And Rozzee and butters have both had lesser years then last. JHF sorta reminds of a Fyfe where 20+ touches couple of goals could give him the 2 / 3 votes. Sounds silly but the socks up and hair, you just notice even watching on TV.

20+ votes is $2 and 25 votes is $34, most predictors have him 18-21, could he over poll and hit the 25? Port won 16 games and a few close losses. Might be worth a small wager?

(I have him 22, but gonna chuck a little on 25 votes)

I have him on 22 as well. Had a great year

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Anyone who enjoys betting exotics I'd be betting them on SB as they have excluded Heeney from their trifecta/first4 markets, can find some decent value around.

 

[ronpingwins]

Anyone got Sinclair pinching the saints votes? 21 votes last year, great second half of the year. Have no confidence in Marshall and Steele is pretty reachable. $5 atm

 

[Lunchtime]

Is Treloar a smoky to win the Brownlow? High possession getter and has kicked 15 goals too. Bont probably takes votes off him though.

 

[Lunchtime]

Will be interesting to see how many votes Horne-Francis gets. He played 21 games, and averaged 22 possessions per game plus he kicked 25 goals.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Anyone got Sinclair pinching the saints votes? 21 votes last year, great second half of the year. Have no confidence in Marshall and Steele is pretty reachable. $5 atm

Yeah Marshall so difficult to read. Last year had a very similar year and could have easily polled 15+ but ended up polling 3.

I guess the only difference is the absence of Brad Crouch. Last year Sinclair had 21, Crouch 18 and Steele 15. 13 wins vs 11 this year. Does Marshall just pick up votes because there's no one else this time esp w Sinclair playing more half back again?

I have him around 14 but seems a a consistent 17 across predictors

 

[Sausage Legs]

Groups and trios on tab if anyone still punts round here. Can multi

 

[the_big_sav]

Dawson
Mclug w/o neale
Martin w/o merrett
Serong
Green
Anderson
Newcombe
Heeney
Bont
@ 3.99