AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[NYRB]

AFL Rd 16 Brisbane v Melbourne

I originally had a clean sweep for Melbourne in a loss. But thinking about that, that cant be right in a loss.

Upon 2nd review I thought Josh Dunkley should be up in the votes in the narrow Brisbane win.

Brisbane had the better 2nd half with McCluggage kicking the winning goal.

Viney had the better metres per gain, most clearances, 10 scoring involvements.

Pickett had the eye-catching game with 5 goals. For a small forward he was very clean with his ball use all night. It wouldn't surprise me if he polled the 3 votes on the night. Has only polled one 3 voter in his career but that was for a goal haul of 6 votes.

Dunkley had a contested mark, 10 tackles, 10 scoring involvements.

Neale I dont think was better than the 4 players above, with him well held in that 1st half.

Try to watch that game without Jimmy Brayshaw commentary- its generally terrible and bias. Not sure what relation he had with the Viney family as former North Melbourne CEO but Brayshaw did a good job of swinging the 3 votes to Viney for me.

Doing zero research I feel metres gained isn't as big as u think it mite be for chazzy, titch, priddo, lach just to name a few

I had a look at a few variables (nine) which I think affect 2023 Brownlow voting, and surprisingly Metres per disposals or Metres seemed a significant factor. Feel like its a more important factor in todays footy than footy compared to 6-7 years ago. Players these days chip too much backwards, sideways and doesnt do damage or influence matches that much. I think thats on the back end of the umps minds too. Although in comparison to other measures its not as significant to: Goals, Intercepts, Disposals, Clearances, Scoring Involvements or a Contested mark though. Did something called an Ordinal Logistic Regression with about 9,500+ rows of data. (Read about it through eg ChewTheStat). A stat I believe is slightly overrated is the 'contested possession' when measuring performance. Thats just me though.

 

[5 Bucks]

Dusty the only player in the last decade to not be top 5 in contested possessions and win the brownlow. He was 7th so still around the mark. It's definitely not an overrated stat

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Wonder how many will give Cripps votes tonight.

 

[jikost]

Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

24

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182cm

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84kg

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M/F

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Last 5

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12.7

3star

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6.9

3star

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5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

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2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

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0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

$7 to poll a vote sb - Does anyone have him polling in round 6, 16 or 22?

 

[NYRB]

Zac Bailey $7 to poll a vote sb - Does anyone have him polling in round 6, 16 or 22?

Not me.

 

[ronpingwins]

Zac Bailey $7 to poll a vote sb - Does anyone have him polling in round 6, 16 or 22?

Got him in Round 22.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Got him in Round 22.

rd 22? he had 13 touches and 0 goals? am I missing something.. and they lost by 3 goals

 

[ronpingwins]

rd 22? he had 13 touches and 0 goals? am I missing something.. and they lost by 3 goals

The game against st Kilda. 20 and 3

 

[NYRB]

Got him in Round 22.

I didnt have him in my best 13 players.


It is on my 2nd Review some time this week.

Ive stuck 3) Hogan 2) Darcy Jones 1) Peatling

Tricky one to allocate votes.

 

[ronpingwins]

I didnt have him in my best 13 players.


It is on my 2nd Review some time this week.

Ive stuck 3) Hogan 2) Darcy Jones 1) Peatling

Tricky one to allocate votes.

View attachment 2104871

Meant round 21, the saints game

 

[NYRB]

Meant round 21, the saints game

I didnt him in my top 9 players. I remember that game, thats a clean sweep for Brisbane votes.

 

[sohohoho]

Neale, Luggage, Rayner and Daniher all better there.

 

[Mozza Mail]

Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

$6 to poll a vote I have him polling in round 12 and he's a small chance round 22. Also Logan McDonald $4.20 in round 18. Anyone else have them?

 

[NYRB]

Paddy Dow $6 to poll a vote I have him polling in round 12 and he's a small chance round 22. Also Logan McDonald $4.20 in round 18. Anyone else have them?

Paddy Who? I dont have him polling in that game. Was 5th best on the ground in Round 12 for me.

Umpires like this to Dow.

 

[Geeves Train]

AFL Rd 16 Brisbane v Melbourne

I originally had a clean sweep for Melbourne in a loss. But thinking about that, that cant be right in a loss.

Upon 2nd review I thought Josh Dunkley should be up in the votes in the narrow Brisbane win.

Brisbane had the better 2nd half with McCluggage kicking the winning goal.

Viney had the better metres per gain, most clearances, 10 scoring involvements.

Pickett had the eye-catching game with 5 goals. For a small forward he was very clean with his ball use all night. It wouldn't surprise me if he polled the 3 votes on the night. Has only polled one 3 voter in his career but that was for a goal haul of 6 votes.

Dunkley had a contested mark, 10 tackles, 10 scoring involvements.

Neale I dont think was better than the 4 players above, with him well held in that 1st half.

Try to watch that game without Jimmy Brayshaw commentary- its generally terrible and bias. Not sure what relation he had with the Viney family as former North Melbourne CEO but Brayshaw did a good job of swinging the 3 votes to Viney for me.


I had a look at a few variables (nine) which I think affect 2023 Brownlow voting, and surprisingly Metres per disposals or Metres seemed a significant factor. Feel like its a more important factor in todays footy than footy compared to 6-7 years ago. Players these days chip too much backwards, sideways and doesnt do damage or influence matches that much. I think thats on the back end of the umps minds too. Although in comparison to other measures its not as significant to: Goals, Intercepts, Disposals, Clearances, Scoring Involvements or a Contested mark though. Did something called an Ordinal Logistic Regression with about 9,500+ rows of data. (Read about it through eg ChewTheStat). A stat I believe is slightly overrated is the 'contested possession' when measuring performance. Thats just me though.

6 of the top 7 for contested possessions for season are top 6 in betting market, not overrated

 

[NYRB]

View attachment 2105361

6 of the top 7 for contested possessions for season are top 6 in betting market, not overrated

Over the course of a season, most likely Brownlow winner will be the player with most contested possessions. I cant argue with that. Game by game on an individual basis, I just a bit wary of using that as the main factor in assessing how well a player played. Each to their own. Hope to be able post show some models , showing how much the variables importance has changed in the space of 6-7 years. For me, its not the first metric I would use to assess how well a player played.

If you have 3-4 players that pick 10-12 contested possessions, there has to be some ice-breaker variable that determines the order. (and I dont think its CP alone) I looked at the Contested Possessions by Vote Category last year in 2023. Im also not sure if a player who picks up 17 CPs versus a player who had 12 CPs, the higher value will win out most of the time for higher votes. The 1 vote and 2 Vote medians are the same and often a toss of the coin to allocate the 1 and 2 vote if both the players finish on a similar number of CPs. The top 25% of CP in the 3 Votes , Quartile 3, picked up 15 Contested Possessions. (as shown on the Boxplot below)



Some summary stats I worked out, looking at the average CP By Vote in 2023. The averages for contested possession between the 1 vote, 2 vote and 3 votes is tight. But I dont buy into the theory , the more in a game, the higher the votes.



A case in point was this weeks Finals. Liberatore had most CPs, Cripps had most CPs, but I doubt both of them would have polled votes despite leading CPs for all players on ground.

Where my model differentiates and says 'contested possessions' isnt so much a big factor, is probably determining the best model for a midfielder especially if you have 2-4 that have a good day. How often have you finished analyzing a game , then question which mid had the better game from a choice of 4 ? Contested possessions becomes a lesser stat in determining the vote allocation.

 

[pharmafella]

I had a look at a few variables (nine) which I think affect 2023 Brownlow voting, and surprisingly Metres per disposals or Metres seemed a significant factor. Feel like its a more important factor in todays footy than footy compared to 6-7 years ago. Players these days chip too much backwards, sideways and doesnt do damage or influence matches that much. I think thats on the back end of the umps minds too. Although in comparison to other measures it’s not as significant to: Goals, Intercepts, Disposals, Clearances, Scoring Involvements or a Contested mark though. Did something called an Ordinal Logistic Regression with about 9,500+ rows of data. (Read about it through eg ChewTheStat). A stat I believe is slightly overrated is the 'contested possession' when measuring performance. Thats just me though.

You only use an ordinal logistic regression when analysing categorical data, not continuous variables like possessions or votes. Might need to start again, sorry mate.

 

[NYRB]

You only use an ordinal logistic regression when analysing categorical data, not continuous variables like possessions or votes. Might need to start again, sorry mate.

I read something on this:

Building Your Own Brownlow Model

A quick guide

analysisofafl.netlify.app

Votes I classified as Categorical Data.

Used a package in R called 'clm' similar to that one.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

The betfair browlow predictor usually a good guide.



Link here if you want their round votes.

Brownlow Medal Predictor | 2024 AFL Season | Betfair Hub

Betfair's unique & renowned Brownlow Medal predictor offers game-by-game analysis & vote predictions for every round of the 2024 AFL premiership season.

www.betfair.com.au

 

[NYRB]

AFL Round 15 Carlton v Geelong

Watched that on 2nd review and my votes were different to the 1st review. Although weighted review goes 3) P Cripps 2) Curnow 1) Walsh.

Tom De Koning

12

Tom De Koning

Age

25

Ht

201cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

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8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

2star

HO

1.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.0

4star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

1.5

5star

has a very good game but dropped off significantly in the 3rd quarter. Cripps had 14 clearances, 41 disposals and 18 Contested Possessions. Each of those numbers would have him in the top 25% in 2023 Count for 3 Votes in those categories. Given the choice of giving 3 votes to Cripps or the other 3 , it would be a brave man to bet against him here based on those numbers in those categories. I had him as my 4th best in my 2nd review. (without glancing at stats 2nd time)

TDK never polled a vote before , so thats why Ill lean towards the other 3 to poll. I reckon coaches may have got swayed by the commentators. (in Coaches Votes) Can see any of the above 4 players polling, just a matter of order.

Curnow kicked 5 goals but feel that a goal in 4th quarter when game wasnt on line and high scoring game overall means less.


In the 2nd review, in terms of eye-catching, i think Cripps just want about his business with no fuss. The other 3 probably played a more 'attractive ' game. TDK V his brother, Walsh with his goal celebration and metres gained, Curnow with his goals.

 

[Sausage Legs]

A case in point was this weeks Finals. Liberatore had most CPs, Cripps had most CPs, but I doubt both of them would have polled votes despite leading CPs for all players on grouground.

My AI model
1. Did team win?
2. Did player top CP without someone having 40+ or kicking 5+?
3. Is name pat cripps?
Science bitch

 

[Johanpetro]

Anyone have this losing?

To Poll 10+ votes

Rozee
Wines
McCluggage
R Marshall
Dawson
H Young
Hogan
Whitfield
Holmes

@ $4.16

Adding Steele and Sinclair is $8.17

 

[invisible_]

AFL Round 15 Carlton v Geelong

Watched that on 2nd review and my votes were different to the 1st review. Although weighted review goes 3) P Cripps 2) Curnow 1) Walsh.

Tom De Koning has a very good game but dropped off significantly in the 3rd quarter. Cripps had 14 clearances, 41 disposals and 18 Contested Possessions. Each of those numbers would have him in the top 25% in 2023 Count for 3 Votes in those categories. Given the choice of giving 3 votes to Cripps or the other 3 , it would be a brave man to bet against him here based on those numbers in those categories. I had him as my 4th best in my 2nd review. (without glancing at stats 2nd time)

TDK never polled a vote before , so thats why Ill lean towards the other 3 to poll. I reckon coaches may have got swayed by the commentators. (in Coaches Votes) Can see any of the above 4 players polling, just a matter of order.

Curnow kicked 5 goals but feel that a goal in 4th quarter when game wasnt on line and high scoring game overall means less.


In the 2nd review, in terms of eye-catching, i think Cripps just want about his business with no fuss. The other 3 probably played a more 'attractive ' game. TDK V his brother, Walsh with his goal celebration and metres gained, Curnow with his goals.

I'm not sure the coaches votes would be swayed by the commentators too much. Not many of them have time to tune into channel 7 in between... ya know... coaching.

For what its worth, end up roughly agreeing with your analysis. I had Cripps > TDK > Walsh > Curnow > M.Kennedy as the best 5 that game- but Cripps a fair way ahead

 

[invisible_]

You only use an ordinal logistic regression when analysing categorical data, not continuous variables like possessions or votes. Might need to start again, sorry mate.

neither possessions or brownlow votes are continuous variables
Might need to start again, sorry mate.

 

[pharmafella]

neither possessions or brownlow votes are continuous variables
Might need to start again, sorry mate.

Fair shout on the votes being categorical, good point, but possessions definitely are.