AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[Johanpetro]

Wish you could multi the “to poll a vote” market. I spy some locks in the $1.40-$1.60 range

 

[invisible_]

Fair shout on the votes being categorical, good point, but possessions definitely are.

possessions would actually be discrete (not continuous) as you can't have 12.752579 possessions in a game. But thats besides the point - votes being ordinal variables does mean ordinal logistic regression is the right approach for a predictive model though, and that article NYRB linked is a good starting point

 

[sohohoho]

I reckon coaches may have got swayed by the commentators. (in Coaches Votes)

wow

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Wish you could multi the “to poll a vote” market. I spy some locks in the $1.40-$1.60 range

There was actually no reason for you to post this, enjoy them now

 

[Mozza Mail]

Wish you could multi the “to poll a vote” market. I spy some locks in the $1.40-$1.60 range

And this is exactly the reason sb aren't allowing multis and have just slashed prices in this range...

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Wish you could multi the “to poll a vote” market. I spy some locks in the $1.40-$1.60 range

Bookies are tracking threads like these, and have been across recent seasons.

Take note - anyone chasing clout... don't. That's a reason why there are secret Brownlow societies nowadays, like faceless men in suits operating speakeasys of yesteryear.

 

[Johanpetro]

Bookies are tracking threads like these, and have been across recent seasons.

Take note - anyone chasing clout... don't. That's a reason why there are secret Brownlow societies nowadays, like faceless men in suits operating speakeasys of yesteryear.

I was in those groups couple of years ago so I’m aware.

 

[Jugada]

Sportsbet definitely not paying someone to monitor the punting board of BF lol

 

[sohohoho]

Bookies are tracking threads like these, and have been across recent seasons.

Take note - anyone chasing clout... don't. That's a reason why there are secret Brownlow societies nowadays, like faceless men in suits operating speakeasys of yesteryear.

Its people betting into the markets being mentioned on here which makes them change the prices



Can say I'm wrong if they put up the same random list of names NYRB has on his 3 vote tables

 

[Johanpetro]

Sportsbet definitely not paying someone to monitor the punting board of BF lol

They wouldn’t be. But similar to the afl round punting thread, heaps of randoms will read the tips then get on them, bringing the odds in. So the threads will definitely be dictating markets, but ain’t no way some nerd on SB is reading them

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Nobody is launching into 1.40-1.60 PAV as singles. They took the whole market down and repriced everything

 

[NSWCROW]

AFL Round 15 Carlton v Geelong

Watched that on 2nd review and my votes were different to the 1st review. Although weighted review goes 3) P Cripps 2) Curnow 1) Walsh.

Tom De Koning has a very good game but dropped off significantly in the 3rd quarter. Cripps had 14 clearances, 41 disposals and 18 Contested Possessions. Each of those numbers would have him in the top 25% in 2023 Count for 3 Votes in those categories. Given the choice of giving 3 votes to Cripps or the other 3 , it would be a brave man to bet against him here based on those numbers in those categories. I had him as my 4th best in my 2nd review. (without glancing at stats 2nd time)

TDK never polled a vote before , so thats why Ill lean towards the other 3 to poll. I reckon coaches may have got swayed by the commentators. (in Coaches Votes) Can see any of the above 4 players polling, just a matter of order.

Curnow kicked 5 goals but feel that a goal in 4th quarter when game wasnt on line and high scoring game overall means less.


In the 2nd review, in terms of eye-catching, i think Cripps just want about his business with no fuss. The other 3 probably played a more 'attractive ' game. TDK V his brother, Walsh with his goal celebration and metres gained, Curnow with his goals.

I had TDK - Cripps - Curnow

 

[NYRB]

Its people betting into the markets being mentioned on here which makes them change the prices



Can say I'm wrong if they put up the same random list of names NYRB has on his 3 vote tables

Can respect if you think my tables are way off.

 

[pacemaker]

View attachment 2105860

I was in those groups couple of years ago so I’m aware.

I should have been "drafted" in one of those groups. They would have gotten Pittonett 2+ for $34.

Oh well...

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Poll A Vote multi now available SB

 

[NYRB]

Went 3) English 2) Treloar 1) Bont for Rd 3 WB V WCE on initial inspection.

Lost my odds spreadsheet as I saved it under the wrong file name. Will look to review it again in my spare time, which would be a 2nd time I would watch it. Have vague memories if you ask me right now.

English and Treloar to battle it out for the 3/2

The 1 vote is up for grab.

What did people give for the Bulldogs V Eagles match in round 3? Was just going through my votes again and haven’t got Bont polling. Noticed a few of the popular counts gave him 2 but also got 0 coaches votes that game.

I revisited this game in my review today, as its one of the few games I didnt have a proper odds table compiled.

Bont was very quite up until half time. 6 disposals up until half time. Game was over by 3/4 time. Bont kicked 2 goals in the last 9 minutes of the match. Did initially have the Bont to have 1 vote but have taken it off him.

A left-field for me to Poll the 1 vote is Naughton. Yeo and T Kelly best for Eagles but in a 12 goal loss, doubt they get in here. Naughton had 13 score involvements, 3 Contested Marks and 10 contested possessions.

My final spreadsheet using close to 100% overround margin.




Libba had a good game up until half time, and you could have made a case of him being best up half-time. Dale, Bont, Bailey Williams (WB) all could sneak in for the 1.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Poll A Vote multi now available SB

Wow cheers, wot we like. I see Collins won gold coast b and f. He looks like a solid anchor.

 

[Spooka]

Some of my bets and the odds I got,

JHF 25+ Votes $34
Waterman WCE team $12
Brayshaw FREO team $18
Balta RICH team $41
Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

poll most games $21

My main single bets then have a heap of team / top 20 markets. Anyone got some nice single bets on?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Some of my bets and the odds I got,

JHF 25+ Votes $34
Waterman WCE team $12
Brayshaw FREO team $18
Balta RICH team $41
Tom Green poll most games $21

My main single bets then have a heap of team / top 20 markets. Anyone got some nice single bets on?

Na just yuuge caterpillar 10 leggers

 

[Spooka]

Na just yuuge caterpillar 10 leggers

Haha be rude to not chuck some of them on!

 

[NYRB]

Wow cheers, wot we like. I see Collins won gold coast b and f. He looks like a solid anchor.

Poll A Vote multi now available SB

The maximum limit 'To Poll a Vote' on the SB multi markets is 10 legs. I tried 11 and it wont allow me.

I noticed PointsBet is the other site, of the other major sportsbooks that has the markets 'To Poll a Vote' up at the moment. Offering a bit better pricing. Only allowing Single bets at the moment though.

 

[Gazza Guru]

English and Treloar to battle it out for the 3/2

The 1 vote is up for grab.

I revisited this game in my review today, as its one of the few games I didnt have a proper odds table compiled.

Bont was very quite up until half time. 6 disposals up until half time. Game was over by 3/4 time. Bont kicked 2 goals in the last 9 minutes of the match. Did initially have the Bont to have 1 vote but have taken it off him.

A left-field for me to Poll the 1 vote is Naughton. Yeo and T Kelly best for Eagles but in a 12 goal loss, doubt they get in here. Naughton had 13 score involvements, 3 Contested Marks and 10 contested possessions.

My final spreadsheet using close to 100% overround margin.


View attachment 2106771

Libba had a good game up until half time, and you could have made a case of him being best up half-time. Dale, Bont, Bailey Williams (WB) all could sneak in for the 1.

I was at the Dogs vs WC game. Bont is polling, just looking at the stats doesn’t tell the story. His first half was actually influential even tho low possessions

 

[demon_fanatic]

hey guys what other bookies apart from sportsbet and tab are offering the first 4 brownlow atm? I am pretty confident it'll be daicos/cripps/heeney/neale just going to throw a few bets on different orders with decent stakes.. and then maybe do smalller stakes with bont/merret included incase they spike just as cover bets.. thanks

 

[Johanpetro]

hey guys what other bookies apart from sportsbet and tab are offering the first 4 brownlow atm? I am pretty confident it'll be daicos/cripps/heeney/neale just going to throw a few bets on different orders with decent stakes.. and then maybe do smalller stakes with bont/merret included incase they spike just as cover bets.. thanks

Dabble, Ladbrokes… probably all of them tbh

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

English and Treloar to battle it out for the 3/2

The 1 vote is up for grab.

I revisited this game in my review today, as its one of the few games I didnt have a proper odds table compiled.

Bont was very quite up until half time. 6 disposals up until half time. Game was over by 3/4 time. Bont kicked 2 goals in the last 9 minutes of the match. Did initially have the Bont to have 1 vote but have taken it off him.

A left-field for me to Poll the 1 vote is Naughton. Yeo and T Kelly best for Eagles but in a 12 goal loss, doubt they get in here. Naughton had 13 score involvements, 3 Contested Marks and 10 contested possessions.

My final spreadsheet using close to 100% overround margin.


View attachment 2106771

Libba had a good game up until half time, and you could have made a case of him being best up half-time. Dale, Bont, Bailey Williams (WB) all could sneak in for the 1.

For what it is worth, if you are still reviewing a round 3 game at this stage with a view to deciding a 1 vote, then I'd wonder if a) the time was worth it and b) whether the overall model might have flaws.