AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[NYRB]

Hey amateur question here guys,

For the dead heat rule, if I was betting on the trifecta market and Daicos and Cripps were to draw on 33 votes and say 3rd place was 30 votes alone. Does that mean if a bet was paying $9 odds, it would end up being a $4.50 payout?

Or would the dead heat rule only apply if say the 3rd placegetter was equal on 30 votes with another player.

Yep pretty much, dead heat rule would apply for 1 and 2 if they happen to tie and there was an outright 3rd place votegettor.

 

[showeringrn]

Reckon it's as simple as if he polls 26 he wins. Hippy should bank 25.5

I think if he gets 25 he’ll win it, and he’s 1.05 to get 25 votes. Hipwood I think will get 2 votes so that won’t even be enough. McCluggage is probably the only realistic danger but even if he gets 17-18 votes which would be over achieving for him (I am expecting 14-15), that probably won’t be enough either. Even 17 for him would mean Neale with 26 wins it as you said and I think Neale can get 30. Tempted to put more on him tbh hahah


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[Sausage Legs]

I think if he gets 25 he’ll win it, and he’s 1.05 to get 25 votes. Hipwood I think will get 2 votes so that won’t even be enough. McCluggage is probably the only realistic danger but even if he gets 17-18 votes which would be over achieving for him (I am expecting 14-15), that probably won’t be enough either. Even 17 for him would mean Neale with 26 wins it as you said and I think Neale can get 30. Tempted to put more on him tbh hahah


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Just seems legit 1.20 shot. Anchor in all my multis anyway

 

[showeringrn]

Wines I think is a great look for Port. Definitely have him clearing Butters, only danger was Rozee for me but I think with the extra handicap he’ll clear him too by at least 2 or more votes. I’m a little unsure on Jezza tbh, might have to look into that a little more but I think Holmes and Stewart could make that one really close


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[Johanpetro]

Wines I think is a great look for Port. Definitely have him clearing Butters, only danger was Rozee for me but I think with the extra handicap he’ll clear him too by at least 2 or more votes. I’m a little unsure on Jezza tbh, might have to look into that a little more but I think Holmes and Stewart could make that one really close


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I’ve personally got Holmes just pipping Jezza with the handicap. Could be my Geelong bias but he’s had a great year. Would catch umps eyes as well with his run and carry

 

[NYRB]

I'm actually really disappointed this year with the handicaps. Something is so off. Normally they open everything at least $4-5+ , this time they've really favoured so many of the scratch players and opened them really short. Normally a good 3 leg multi would be 120:1+, now its ~20:1. It's almost like taking the player votes over/under market on those main guys.

The margin overrounds at TAB around the 125-140% margin range. Hoping another sportsbook can offer better overrounds closer to the count but those margins are pretty bad aren't they? but for the fun of the multi, I gather thats the only good thing about it.

I reckon this might be worth putting up on the sticky as people have been referring to Team Vote Handicaps since they have been posted up yesterday.




Above prices were recorded at 9PM AEST on 17th September 2024 from TAB website.

Last year I played around with the 'System Multi' which allowed one to place up to 5 legs in any combinations (eg doubles, trebles, four-folds and five folds).

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

I think if he gets 25 he’ll win it, and he’s 1.05 to get 25 votes. Hipwood I think will get 2 votes so that won’t even be enough. McCluggage is probably the only realistic danger but even if he gets 17-18 votes which would be over achieving for him (I am expecting 14-15), that probably won’t be enough either. Even 17 for him would mean Neale with 26 wins it as you said and I think Neale can get 30. Tempted to put more on him tbh hahah


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This is what I have for the Brisbane handicap, got a fair bit of breathing space and his back half of the year was huge. Reckon 26+ gets it done and he should get that comfortably.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

I’ve personally got Holmes just pipping Jezza with the handicap. Could be my Geelong bias but he’s had a great year. Would catch umps eyes as well with his run and carry

If you look at the vote breakdown for Jezza its almost always either 3 votes or 0. He's got some big games banked (R5, R7, R17, R21, R24 - 10 coaches votes in all these games) and a chance for some minors in R1 and R4. If he converts his big games into 3s then he's in a great spot to win the handicap.

I have Max Holmes a chance to poll in more games (10 games v 7 games) but Jezza has the big vote games banked. Holmes polling history is a bit unknown and I'd be weary in a breakout year, seems like he's got a bunch of games where hes in contention for the 1-2 and if he misses a few of those he'll be in trouble.

Happy to just take Jezza here.

 

[Sausage Legs]

View attachment 2113974

If you look at the vote breakdown for Jezza its almost always either 3 votes or 0. He's got some big games banked (R5, R7, R17, R21, R24 - 10 coaches votes in all these games) and a chance for some minors in R1 and R4. If he converts his big games into 3s then he's in a great spot to win the handicap.

I have Max Holmes a chance to poll in more games (10 games v 7 games) but Jezza has the big vote games banked. Holmes polling history is a bit unknown and I'd be weary in a breakout year, seems like he's got a bunch of games where hes in contention for the 1-2 and if he misses a few of those he'll be in trouble.

Happy to just take Jezza here.

Likewise, by a couple for me. Wondering your thoughts on kozzie, thinking about going again.
Also like a 2 bet play on hawks, can't see one of worps or nuke losing

 

[sohohoho]

The margin overrounds at TAB around the 125-140% margin range. Hoping another sportsbook can offer better overrounds closer to the count but those margins are pretty bad aren't they? but for the fun of the multi, I gather thats the only good thing about it.

140 is getting on high side but Disposal Groups are 130ish and 8 players in those so pretty similar.

Doubt you will get other books doing better, not sure many other books offer the team handicap either

 

[Johanpetro]

Neale, serong, Newcombe, Cripps at $32 I like. I’ve got Cripps polling a fair bit though. Take out Cripps $13.50

 

[NYRB]

140 is getting on high side but Disposal Groups are 130ish and 8 players in those so pretty similar.

Doubt you will get other books doing better, not sure many other books offer the team handicap either

Fair enough. The one beauty is they allow multis which sort of makes up for it.

Would be a good option if other sportsbooks , eg Sportsbet, if they decided to put it up as they have a #BYOSportsbet where you can request certain markets. One market that I asked hasn't been put up yet- which is a tad strange from my side.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Likewise, by a couple for me. Wondering your thoughts on kozzie, thinking about going again.
Also like a 2 bet play on hawks, can't see one of worps or nuke losing

I've got Kozi winning this as well, +11.5 is a big head start in a team with no clear standouts. Has the big game banked in R16 against Brisbane and then a chance to poll in a few others.

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet are infuriating to bet with. If your going to be man enough, and put a BYOBet request, be man enough to accept the requests. I can accept at the end of the day if they decided 'we have decided not to put up the request on our behalf' or some statement along those lines.......

This was their BYOB on their site .

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/offers/byobrownlow

 

[invisible_]

Neale, serong, Newcombe, Cripps at $32 I like. I’ve got Cripps polling a fair bit though. Take out Cripps $13.50

Yeah Cripps the danger there - personally have Walsh leading by quite some margin there and happy to keep backing at $3.25. 17.5 is an insane head start for someone who has polled very well historically. Agree its a 2 horse race though, so taking the value.

Have looked into Neale and agree with posters above. Overpolled by 7 on almost all predictors last year, and this year as long as he doesn't UNDERpoll by 4-5 votes he will be home. Will keep throwing in all combos at $1.80

 

[Billionaire Panda]

The margin overrounds at TAB around the 125-140% margin range. Hoping another sportsbook can offer better overrounds closer to the count but those margins are pretty bad aren't they? but for the fun of the multi, I gather thats the only good thing about it.

I reckon this might be worth putting up on the sticky as people have been referring to Team Vote Handicaps since they have been posted up yesterday.

View attachment 2113958


Above prices were recorded at 9PM AEST on 17th September 2024 from TAB website.

Last year I played around with the 'System Multi' which allowed one to place up to 5 legs in any combinations (eg doubles, trebles, four-folds and five folds).

You happen to have last years starting price handicaps and what they ended up at time of count?

Seems like in the next few days Neale Merret Serong Jezza Heeney Daicos and Cripps are gonna get to prices where it would be better to just take them at their over/under mark. From memory only guys like English and Gawn were in the 2’s last year

 

[Billionaire Panda]

What’s the lowest price to take on Neale?

Betfairs predictor would have McCluggage winning it by 2 votes. Seems like a minimum I agree but there’s a definite pathway to him getting beaten. I’m thinking $1.65.

 

[NYRB]

You happen to have last years starting price handicaps and what they ended up at time of count?

Seems like in the next few days Neale Merret Serong Jezza Heeney Daicos and Cripps are gonna get to prices where it would be better to just take them at their over/under mark. From memory only guys like English and Gawn were in the 2’s last year

I didnt keep them. I placed my bets on the Saturday.

Last year, only one player on the +0 favourite won on the handicap- it was Gulden.

Had some winners on Ben King +15.5 handicap ($6.50), Viney ($10) +13.5 handicap and Brad Crouch +5.5 handicap ($9) (dead head with Saints)

Odds will probably change somewhat between: yesterday, today, Saturday and I guess 1 hour before the count.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

What’s the lowest price to take on Neale?

Betfairs predictor would have McCluggage winning it by 2 votes. Seems like a minimum I agree but there’s a definite pathway to him getting beaten. I’m thinking $1.65.

Betfair have Clugga too high imo, 19.5 votes seems a bit of a stretch. Think Cluggas vote range is closer to 12-15 and he has shown to underpoll in the past.

 

[invisible_]

Whats the news with 3 vote games this year? Any bookies confirmed to be offering them? When can we expect a market to open?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Betfair have Clugga too high imo, 19.5 votes seems a bit of a stretch. Think Cluggas vote range is closer to 12-15 and he has shown to underpoll in the past.

19.5 wow, he's gunna win it. Proven underpoller. 15s a stretch.
Edit. just checked, even if he does poll ridiculous and gets to 20. Still comes up short. 8.5 not enough. 4 players to look at before hughy

 

[sohohoho]

19.5 wow, he's gunna win it. Proven underpoller. 15s a stretch.
Edit. just checked, even if he does poll ridiculous and gets to 20. Still comes up short. 8.5 not enough. 4 players to look at before hughy

If he gets to 20 then it means others poll less though. He would win it most likely.

Don't think Neale deserves the love he has got this year overall but still have him winning this handicap with some room to move.

 

[ronpingwins]

Whats the news with 3 vote games this year? Any bookies confirmed to be offering them? When can we expect a market to open?

Won't happen I suspect. Probably due to that umpire leaking results last year.

 

[NSWCROW]

For those asking about Holmes , i had him on 11

3 best-on's and a 2

 

[Johanpetro]

Won't happen I suspect. Probably due to that umpire leaking results last year.

Happened in 2022 they still had 3 vote markets in 2023. $250 max payout