AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[Sausage Legs]

For those asking about Holmes , i had him on 11

12 here, still a comfortable gap for jizza.

 

[NYRB]

Happened in 2022 they still had 3 vote markets in 2023. $250 max payout

I thought it was $100 in 2023. Maybe my account had restrictions that I cant remember .

 

[Johanpetro]

I thought it was $100 in 2023. Maybe my account had restrictions that I cant remember .

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Last year, only one player on the +0 favourite won on the handicap- it was Gulden.

Yeah damn seems like they're overcompensating this year on the scratch guys. Not that anyone really cares but here was 2021 handicaps when 6 of the 18 guys won off scratch. Look at those prices compared to this year.



I think if we get a high count like 2021 it will really help a lot of scratch players and a lot of other 20+ 25+ markets

 

[showeringrn]

If he gets to 20 then it means others poll less though. He would win it most likely.

Don't think Neale deserves the love he has got this year overall but still have him winning this handicap with some room to move.

Him to get 20 is paying 8$ and even if he does get that, Neale can get 30 (paying close to 2$)


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[Billionaire Panda]

How many votes do people have for Richmond? Betfair's seems to be 17.5 whereas AFL's is at 30. Line on Sportsbet is 22.5. Seems key to their handicap.

 

[Johanpetro]

How many votes do people have for Richmond? Betfair's seems to be 17.5 whereas AFL's is at 30. Line on Sportsbet is 22.5. Seems key to their handicap.

19 for me

 

[sohohoho]

Him to get 20 is paying 8$ and even if he does get that, Neale can get 30 (paying close to 2$)


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You realise if someone polls so far ahead of their handicap then their team mates then poll less most times

 

[Johanpetro]

How many votes do people have for Richmond? Betfair's seems to be 17.5 whereas AFL's is at 30. Line on Sportsbet is 22.5. Seems key to their handicap.

Also afl website have Taranto on 14. In what world is he polling 14

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Also afl website have Taranto on 14. In what world is he polling 14

Thought it was 10 but yeah they gave him a random 3 in that 48pt loss in Dusty's 300th. Still if it is a higher tigers count then all these 0.5 handicaps won't mean much at all. If its a low count like most people expect then it comes down to the 2 wins.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Anyone have Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

overpolling by a vote or 2? Seemingly right in the mix in round 1 and another chance for 3 in round 8. Can't be ruled out for 1 in round 3 and my HT notes on round 22 v Giants read "Oliver actually looking reasonably good for once".
+10.5 handicap @$7

 

[Lunchtime]

Two-man Brownlow thriller looms, but AFL’s stats gurus name clear favourite... and shock dark horse

Two-man Brownlow thriller looms, but AFL’s stats gurus name clear favourite... and shock dark horse

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[showeringrn]

You realise if someone polls so far ahead of their handicap then their team mates then poll less most times

Yeah I get it… I’m just stating the odds and how unlikely it is for someone like Hugh to poll that much to begin with


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[showeringrn]

Do we like Martin on the handicap too? Think that one’s ok as well I have Merrett underpolling a bit


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[Sausage Legs]

Do we like Martin on the handicap too? Think that one’s ok as well I have Merrett underpolling a bit


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Like Martin and short there. I have short a chance to even poll the 3 in crows game, if he does wrap it up. Dusty should have 2.

I'm a merrett fan. Reckon he gets all the 50/50 votes off the less namers

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Merrett was nice at $3+. Is $2.25 for 25+. $2.40 for the handicap. Might need 25-26 to take the handicap with Martin possibly reaching 14 and Durham exuding big poller energy. Just a fair price now I reckon.

 

[BOOYAH1987]

When does the round by round betting votes come out ?

 

[Geeves Train]

When does the round by round betting votes come out ?

4:17pm today

 

[Billionaire Panda]

If it actually does come out then, we've found our Sportsbet mole

 

[FootyStar#1]

Anyone going to start sharing their final counts? Don't think it's going to be affecting the odds now after they've been absolutely r*ped and pillaged.

 

[Angel Pie]

Across all brownlow bets eg: top 20, teams, head to head, trios etc) where is there still guaranteed value?

 

[demon_fanatic]

they are all up on b365... I don't mind Petracca 2.00 to upstage Cripps in that 1 point loss vs Carlton.. he was simply crazy kicking like 5 goals to keep us in it.. this game was debated heavily.

solid lower odds single bets i've only looked rd 1-10 would be dangerfield 1.44 vs saints rd 1 due to the fact he did the clutch mark and goal late and was probably already best on.. umps love him and Holmes is way lesser known at that stage.. Harley Reid rd 10 1.40 vs dees this was the game he was doing fend offs on petracca and kicking goals he will get it ahead of waterman who did kick 5 but I feel the Reid stuff will be front and centre in umpires mind.

EDIT:RD 11 wines 3.60 and horne francis 5.50 surely are value to top marshall at 1.33... marshall kicked 5 but this is a mids medal and wines kicked 2 with possessions and Horne Francis 24 touches with game high 10 clearances and we know he would of stoood out here with attention due to the argy bargy with north etc

RD 16 we have daicoss 4.00.. yes gold coast won but Daicos had some memorable moments.. could easily get 3 here with Anderson 2 , flanders 1.. anderson did have it 39 times but daicos 32 and 2 goals will stand out.. also in umpires eye all game 4 free kicks for and 3 against.. I think ill go a bit on daicos at 4.00 and anderson 2.25.. im confident flanders doesn't really stand out and won't get it

RD 16:Serong 3.00 vs syd.. they won the game and yes he was a bit quieter after qtr time but he's still got the advantage over blakey and ryan of being under the umpires nose all game.. i'll take the 3.00 here

RD 18: Rivers 4.75 vs Essendon.. we won this game pretty easy and Martin is very short as most of his 4 goals did come basically in junk time... rivers did have 7 tackles and 8 clearances here.. whether he is known enough to umpires is disputable but same could be said of Martin.

RD 18: Neale seems a banker at 1.20 vs Eagles.. 2 goals 34 touches and a crucial goal late.. proven voting record over mcluggage here... can take this to the bank I feel.. would be adding this as a multi leg if any sites release 1.20 about this elsewhere and enable multis

rd 20: Neale 3.00 vs Gcoast.. giving me 3.00 for an umps bet vs Zorko 1.33 who yes had a good game but Neale still had 35 and a goal here with 10 clerances.

rd 21: taking neale 2.00 and rayner 4.50 vs saints.. once again going to fade mccluggage here and stake more towards neale but still profit if rayner gets the 3.. rayner had 22 and 3 goals and he really stands out in games like this.. but simply cant ignore an umps pet in neale at 2.00 when he has over 30

rd 22: Horne francis 1.80 vs dees... fading butters at 2.00 as Horne Francis was everywhere in final term taking several clutch defensive marks.. he also kicked 2 goals vs butters 1 in a low scoring game and basically just putting faith in him being more eye catching.. pickett a good cover bet at 7.00 as he did kick 4 goals and was clearly dees best.

rd 23: Viney 1.33 vs gold coast.. 40 touches 2 goals.. a big F U game to those saying he was going to north.. langdon had 40 too but it was clear it was viney the standout... 1.10 cripps vs eagles is surely a lock too if you want better than bank interest.. can't see hewitt troubling him

rd 24: Cripps 3.75 vs saints... the game that could win him the brownlow.... I still think he stood out more than Walsh and Sinclair.. whether a quiet 4th qtr costs him is the question..

NICK DAICOS 1.20 vs dees.. yes his bro also had 40 but Nick had 2 goals and umps would of been all over knowing this could decide brownlow.. can't see them being potential villains and not giving him the 3

 

[Johanpetro]

they are all up on b365... I don't mind Petracca 2.00 to upstage Cripps in that 1 point loss vs Carlton.. he was simply crazy kicking like 5 goals to keep us in it.. this game was debated heavily.

solid lower odds single bets i've only looked rd 1-10 would be dangerfield 1.44 vs saints rd 1 due to the fact he did the clutch mark and goal late and was probably already best on.. umps love him and Holmes is way lesser known at that stage.. Harley Reid rd 10 1.40 vs dees this was the game he was doing fend offs on petracca and kicking goals he will get it ahead of waterman who did kick 5 but I feel the Reid stuff will be front and centre in umpires mind.

EDIT:RD 11 wines 3.60 and horne francis 5.50 surely are value to top marshall at 1.33... marshall kicked 5 but this is a mids medal and wines kicked 2 with possessions and Horne Francis 24 touches with game high 10 clearances and we know he would of stoood out here with attention due to the argy bargy with north etc

My max stake is $3… fkkn cowards

 

[NYRB]

RD 16:Serong 3.00 vs syd.. they won the game and yes he was a bit quieter after qtr time but he's still got the advantage over blakey and ryan of being under the umpires nose all game.. i'll take the 3.00 here

That Rd 16 Sydney v Freo game was a bit of a hard one to pick. Blakey had a dominant spell late in the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter. You wouldnt have named Blakey in your top 8 players , with 5 minutes remaining late in the 3rd quarter. Serong had the more consistent game throughout the 4 quarters. Blakeys stats seemed rather impressive especially metres gain, a goal and bounces of the ball he took around the ground. Bouncing the ball around the ground generally means you have confidence in your game, and its something that catches the umps eyes. And the forwards that kicked multiple goals all played rather well (in patches) that day. In terms of Dockers defenders, you could have made a case that Draper and Jordan Clark had better games than Ryan.....but one doubts the umps will go to the lesser known names.

Had the chance to relook into that game last night.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Don’t mind Will Day against Adelaide round 20. Was classy all game and kicked a great goal. 7’s @ 365. Let me on for $10.
JHF against Blues same round good value @ 11s.