AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Yeah go on I dare ya
Would love to see it - every bit of information helps
Yeah go on I dare ya
Tab has the same, however Heeney is listed
Have him on 19
Nah, Martin on 24 is being too focused on disposal number. I’ve got Butters on 23, am I the only one with him in the 20’s?
Only have him on 13
$15 for 18 votes on Dabble, maybe worth a Dabble?
keen to see it
| Tom Green | |
| Coll | 3 |
| NM | 3 |
| WCE | 3 |
| Bris | 3 |
| Port | 2 |
| Carlton | 2 |
| Richmond | 2 |
| GC | 3 |
| Mel | 3 |
| Bris | 1 |
| Fremantle | 1 |
| 26 | |
| Listed in top 5 | |
| R9 v ESS | 4th line |
| R10 v DOGS | 5th line |
| R11 v CATS | 5th line |
| R15 v SWANS | 4th line |
| R16 v CROWS | 4th line |
| R21 v HAWKS | 5th line |
| R24 v DOGS | 5h line |
good stuff man.The case for Tom Green
Tom Green seems to be a hell of a smokey for this year’s brownlow at the price that he is (~80:1 at time of writing). His line on SB is 21.5 and I feel that’s a lot closer to his minimum than his expected mark.
I initially had him around 31 votes. Thought that must have been too high as there was no market confidence. Started looking for every reason under the sun why he wouldn’t do well, which is why I was speculating about Whitfield, Hogan and Briggs on here a few months back. Went back and watched all their games again, my bias on noticing him must be really really really high because I had him polling even more the 2nd time around.
The micro analysis
Rounds 1-7
- Expected across most predictors to pick up 10-11 votes in rounds 1,2,3 and 7.
- The initial 3 vote odds market had him fave to poll the 3 votes in all 4 of those games.
- Was the Brownlow favourite across these rounds too as GWS were also early flag favourites.
- Round 5 v Saints has potential for a surprise vote or 2. Leading their disposals for a midfielder and their most clearances and con pos. They were 5-6 goals up with 8mins to go and had the game in control all day before a random saints surge. Giant’s players could get the 2 and 3. Outside of Whitfield there really wasn’t much from their side.
Rounds 8-16
- This is where his odds began to drift. He injured his ankle against the Swans in round 8 as the Giant’s form began to fall away.
- Round 9 was a loss but he’s still in the mix. The Giants were in the match throughout, 8 points at 3qt ending in a 20pt loss. He was clearly the Giant’s best and his 34 touches were the most in the match. Huddo’s commentary in the last qtr when he got the ball “Tom Green again, there’s only so much one man can do”. There's no real standout mids in the match. Guys like Langford and Guelfi were most influential. Merret and Durham had nice moments throughout but not big touches.
- Round 11 v the Cats is not clear cut. Isn’t expected to poll on any predictors but can’t be ruled out. Most touches for the Giants. Toby is expected to be in the votes. Max Holmes would be in the mix for the cats if they get votes. Then it's guys like Leek Aleer who was awesome and possibly Riccardi if they want to reward another goalkicker. With the bias for inside mids Green is a chance to sneak into it. His clangers are the only knock but having re-watched this game they weren’t really noticeable because it was mostly in the contest (Most contested possessions in the match with 17). At 3qt I thought he was the best player on the ground.
- Round 14 v the Power. 1-2 on some predictors, missed by others. Green had their most touches and was the best inside mid on the ground. Kelly kicked his goal with 90secs to go when the game was over and was more on the outside as always. Houston could make a case for the 3 here. Him and Farell really got a lot of ball with the 19 behinds the Giants kicked. Briggs was enormous in the first qtr and isn’t out of this either.
- Round 15 v Swans. 27 point loss. He’s had 35 but ~17 were in the first qtr so not much impact after that. 0.5 at best.
- Round 16 v Crows: Loss of 16points. Rankine was best player in the first half but really faded out a lot. Probably still did enough to set up the win and get the votes. Tom Green was easily the dominant midfielder on the ground. Again Whitfield racks up a lot of touches off half back but nowhere near as noticeable as Green. Margin close enough for Tom to get 2 here.
Rounds 17- 24
- Round 17 v Blues. This could really shape the count. Personally I thought Cripps will get the 3 despite the loss. Giants got out to a big lead of 6 goals at 3qt and the Blues comeback never really seemed likely so the umps could elect to give him 1 and give 2 giants players the 3 and 2. Hogan deserves big votes not sure if they’ll reward him. Green very much in the mix. 33 and a goal. Ward, Daniels and Briggs also chances. Really seems like any of a few could get maximum votes.
- Round 18 v Tigers. Seems to be between Toby Tom and Whitfield. Toby should get the 3. Toss up bw the others. I would edge toward Tom as the inside mid for 2.
- Round 19 v Suns. Initially I thought Tom Green would get the 3 for sure. Was easily the best mid in a big win. Hogan the main danger kicked 4 and had big infuence. Whitfield probably 1 despite the big touches. Flanders not out of this either for a minor vote. Predictors uncertain on the 3 here. Green is fave with the bookies here.
- Round 20 v Demons. Again I thought Tom Green would get the 3. Kicked their first goal. Had most clearances and got that final centre clearance late when the game was in danger. Seems like most predictors have him highest rated but not a clear 3. Hogan’s hands were so good in the wet and could challenge. Even Callaghan could spoil the party here was quite good. Viney and Oliver the demon chances. Green is bookie fave here again.
- Round 21 v Hawks. Probably doesn’t deserve votes but kicked the winning goal, had their most con pos easily and most clearances. Competition in Whitfield Toby and Hogan, with Newcombe a huge chance to get 2 or 3 as well. Probably a 0.5 at best.
- Round 22 v Lions. Another Giants win and Green likely the fave to get the 3. Was good throughout this match but wasn’t anything special. Has competition from a few places - Hogan and Cadman kicked 3 each but felt like high influence. Callaghan not far off. Peatling 6 free kicks at the stoppages shouldn’t go missed. Darcy Jones good in the last. Will Ashcroft also a huge chance to get into the minors was good all day. Looks like he’s $3.50 3rd fave for the 3 here with B365.
- Round 23 v Freo. Career high 40 touches. 13 clearances. Was enormous but there’s other good performances. Would back Jesse Hogan to get the 3. Daniels a chance with 29 and 3 and Brayshaw racked up 41 as well. I didn’t really notice that Daniels had 29, to me it felt like a typical 3 goal small forward game and doing some nice things in the middle. I would’ve thought Green has to be the fave for the 2 votes.
- Round 24 v Dogs. 37 and a goal but margin blew out in the final 5-10 mins of the match so Giants lost by 37 points. Probably allocate a 0.5. If the margin didn’t blow out late Green would be a 2 on a lot of predictors.
The Macro analysis
- If Tom Green was 10:1 and predictors had rewarded him more, no one would bat an eye. Was the fave at certain points across the first 7 rounds. Only drifted because the Giants went through a losing patch. When they found form again his price never returned despite strong enough performances.
- Games having the highest touches for their team for a midfielder: 18 for Tom Green, equal with Daicos. The opportunities will be there all season for him to consistently pick up votes. Wines also had 18 in 2021. (This stat may be overrated though - Neale ~11 in 2023, Cripps ~7 in 2022)
- The main dangers for players stealing votes comes in the form of Hogan, the key forward and Whitfield, the half back. Callaghan a chance in a few but that’s a real unknown and only 2 games over 30 touches.
- Last years vote breakdown: Toby got 20 votes putting in an all-australian captain type year. Led the goalkicking in every match he polled in. Tom Green polled 16 votes which was around his expected mark. Was suspended and ineligible since round 5 so never really had any hype. Coniglio and Kelly combined for 18 votes. Both those guys are not huge factors at all this year playing 11 and 13 games respectively and being well down on output. 2 extra wins this year.
- Eye catching factor: Tom Green at his best is a real mix between Cripps and Fyfe. Has the big frame and has the eye catching handball ability where he jumps above the tackle and releases it to the outside. Has probably been down on this with lower clearances this year but has more than made up for it with the highest average disposals in the comp (removing his r8 injury game).
Using a 3,2,1 on b365 odds on the to poll a 3 markets, this is what Green gets:
Tom Green Coll 3 NM 3 WCE 3 Bris 3 Port 2 Carlton 2 Richmond 2 GC 3 Mel 3 Bris 1 Fremantle 1 26 Listed in top 5 R9 v ESS 4th line R10 v DOGS 5th line R11 v CATS 5th line R15 v SWANS 4th line R16 v CROWS 4th line R21 v HAWKS 5th line R24 v DOGS 5h line
I think that 26 is a lot more reasonable than the lower mark he’s been given everywhere. And you can see there’s a further 7 games where he’s in the mix on the 4th and 5th line.
Summary: Who knows what he’s on but has potential to go right into the 30’s if needed.
Was really confident on him with 2 rounds to go but Daicos and Cripps were strong late. Think all the other markets involving him provide some value. Eg- over 21.5, player to poll in most games, elite player handicap, 25+, 30+ etc.
