Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

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Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me
 

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Race 5: Lexus Stakes (Hotham Handicap) now to be run on Makybe Diva Stakes Day instead of being run on Victoria Derby day

Winner still gets automatic entry into Melbourne Cup.


 

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Grosvenor Square can stay home.

You wouldn't send Jan Brueghel down here now.

Illinois or bust. Run of the race there and would be the best type for him to send anyway at this point I think
 
Why did they move it ? Always was a novelty that last cup spot days before

Not sure why. Maybe because in its original timeslot (run on Vic Derby day) the Archer Stakes/Melbourne Cup double has not been done since 2009.

Archer Stakes/Melbourne Cup Double

2009: Shocking
2000: Brew
1974: Think Big
1958: Baystone
1949: Foxzami
1944: Sirius
1943: Dark Felt
1931: White Nose
1922: King Ingoda
1870: Nimblefoot

Maybe in its new timeslot, the "double" can be achieved once again. There used to be a lot of tired horses/tired winners of the Archer Stakes heading into the Cup when the race was run on Vic Derby Day. By running the race on Makybe Diva Stakes Day in September, it makes things easier for the horse.

See article below about why the change was made:

 
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Oh wow - we could be on here



Would be happy with either but Illinois just makes the most sense. More ready, had his chances to win a Euro G1, has shown ability over the mile and a half which you want.

JB looks just far too much like he could be the next Strad or Kyprios in waiting to risk cooking him with a trip to Melbourne as a 3yo. Racing style also a lot more dour which isn't really the ideal type anyway
 

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Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

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