Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me

 

[Lunchtime]

Since 1970, the Archer Stakes (Hotham Hcp)/Melbourne Cup double has only been done three times:

2009: Shocking
2000: Brew
1974: Think Big

 

[juice t]

And only 1 horse has placed in the Cup after winning the Hotham in the last 10 years

 

[Lunchtime]

And only 1 horse has placed in the Cup after winning the Hotham in the last 10 years

Since 2000, the following Hotham Hcp winners have placed in the Melbourne Cup, 3 days later:

2006: Maybe Better - 3rd (50kg)

2010: Maluckyday - 2nd (51kg)

2018: Prince Of Arran - 3rd (53kg)

Not that it's relevant to the Melbourne Cup but Kalapour won the Hotham Hcp in 2023, then ran 20th in the Melbourne Cup. He ended up winning the G1 WFA 2400m Tancred Stakes at big odds in the 2024 Sydney Autumn carnival, then ran 3rd in the Sydney Cup (3200m).

 

[Jugada]

To be honest all of the win and your in races are garbage and have been for some time so not really fussed where they put them

 

[Lunchtime]

To be honest all of the win and your in races are garbage and have been for some time so not really fussed where they put them

Caulfield Cup (win and you're in race) has held up in recent times in terms of the Melbourne Cup.

Mackinnon Stakes was a good guide to the Melbourne Cup, another "win and you're in race" but it was moved to final day of 4 day Flemington Melbourne Cup carnival.

It's the lower level win and you're in races which haven't been good guides to the Melbourne Cuo in recent times.

 

[Jugada]

Caulfield Cup (win and you're in race) has held up in recent times in terms of the Melbourne Cup.

Mackinnon Stakes was a good guide to the Melbourne Cup, another "win and you're in race" but it was moved to final day of 4 day Flemington Melbourne Cup carnival.

It's the lower level win and you're in races which haven't been good guides to the Melbourne Cuo in recent times.

Yeah mean the races that they're only real merit is a ticket to the Cup not the actual G1 races with a token ticket

 

[Jugada]

Adelaide River first up in AUS in the Lord Mayors Cup similarly to Without a Fight last year.

Form on paper last year reads incredibly strong around Auguste Rodin, Feed The Flame and White Birch

 

[Play On Advantage]

Adelaide River first up in AUS in the Lord Mayors Cup similarly to Without a Fight last year.

Form on paper last year reads incredibly strong around Auguste Rodin, Feed The Flame and White Birch

$34 on SB

 

[Areyoufireal]

Adelaide River first up in AUS in the Lord Mayors Cup similarly to Without a Fight last year.

Form on paper last year reads incredibly strong around Auguste Rodin, Feed The Flame and White Birch

Had a nibble EW @ 51s on b365

 

[Lunchtime]

The Grey Wizard has win a free ticket into the Melbourne Cup.

Saratoga: The Grey Wizard wins by head in Belmont Gold Cup

Saratoga: The Grey Wizard emerges in 3-way photo among grays to win Belmont Gold Cup.

www.horseracingnation.com

 

[Jugada]

Wouldn’t waste their time coming here. Belmont Gold Cup is rubbish form for the Cup in general and he is a pretty weak winner

 

[Jugada]

T O Royal injured and spelling too so obviously rules out any slight chance

 

[Jugada]

Middle Earth going around in the Hardwicke this weekend as about a 3-1 chance in what is a pretty strong field looking ahead to our carnival. If he was to win it well he would be the clear best horse in the mix but would get lumped with a decent weight

 

[Jugada]

Good run if you are on Middle Earth. Nice closing third without being good enough to re route to the Euro G1s or a Cox Plate when they come here.

The winner Isle of Jura on the other hand has gone from being a speculative option to too good to come out here with that win

 

[Jugada]

Little bit of a rundown of all the internationals that have been mentioned or are in the betting

Middle Earth: Really nice win at Newbury where he showed a good turn of foot to win and then pass mark in the Hardwicke where he ran on best of those out the back. Goes really well on firm tracks but flops out of the barriers. Caulfield Cup into Melbourne Cup the plan as of now.

T O Royal: Was highly unlikely to come anyway but in the paddock at the moment after an injury so wont be out here.

Vauban: Everything being planned out this prep to have him peaking for the Cup so that's a positive I guess but big questions on whether he is good enough out here still and his runs this time in haven't been as strong as this time last year. Still doesn't want a firm track either.

Belloccio: Owners want to come out but the horse is pretty average for mine. Tracks similar to a horse like Absurde did when he ran in the Copper Horse. He will follow the same path into the Ebor to try to get a run but would need to run to a much higher rating much like Absurde did to be any chance.

Crystal Black: Looks likely to end up out here. Original owners want to come and potential AUS buyers also looking to get him out here. Tracks similar to a horse like Okita Soushi who came out last year after winning the same race at Ascot.

Sayedaty Sadaty: Not the worst horse the AUS Bloodstock boys have purchased for the Cups to be honest. Ran a reasonable 5th in the Epsom Derby behind City of Troy. Was 7 lengths off him but only a length and a half off Los Angeles which is decent and there were big margins in behind. Probably most similar to a horse like Hoo Ya Mal who was sold by the same owner.

Tower of London: Travelled well to Saudi and Dubai already this year and won. I presume they will throw a nom in to see what weight he gets but I get the feeling the lads think he will get too much weight and don't think he runs out 2 miles so will dodge it anyway.

Isle of Jura: Won too well in the Hardwicke. Won't be coming out here now.

Sevenna's Knight: Not a betting proposition at the moment. That second rate G2/G3 French form is very questionable out here and on top of that OTI seem to have lost the plot with talks of an Arc prep should he run well on the weekend

Blow The Horn: Nothing at all to suggest he would come.

Changingoftheguard: Already out here but complete guesswork as to what its level will be when it gets to the track. Last seen running 3rd to Pyledriver in last years Hardwicke is good form for out here as he would have crossed the line with West Wind Blows if not for interference. At his best would be a great bet particularly at the odds in both features but hard to get too excited when his stablemate Adelaide River has turned to complete shit out here.

 

[Jugada]

SEVENNA'S KNIGHT lapped in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Puts to bed those ludicrous thoughts of an Arc prep I would have thought but you couldn't entertain it as a Cups horse off a run that poor either

 

[Lunchtime]

SEVENNA'S KNIGHT lapped in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Puts to bed those ludicrous thoughts of an Arc prep I would have thought but you couldn't entertain it as a Cups horse off a run that poor either

Probably in their own mind it's a good thing now to send to Melbourne, not up to world class 2400m+ WFA at this stage so head to Melbourne and get an "ideal-ish" weight in the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Fabab]

I bet bear on the loose for both cups on Friday before its 1st Oz run on Saturday ,won at 1800m Waterhouse has it how do you fellas rate it?

 

[Jugada]

I bet bear on the loose for both cups on Friday before its 1st Oz run on Saturday ,won at 1800m Waterhouse has it how do you fellas rate it?

Miles off it really. Paltry wins at Chester and running in BM78s in June not going to be where to look for G1 horses in the Spring 99.99% of the time

Would have him on a similar level to a horse like Wineglass Bay who came out previously

 

[Jugada]

Probably in their own mind it's a good thing now to send to Melbourne, not up to world class 2400m+ WFA at this stage so head to Melbourne and get an "ideal-ish" weight in the Melbourne Cup.

He won't be winning much out here either though off that sort of run. I presume he is coming out here to stay otherwise you wouldn't even bother sending him unless he turned it around next run

 

[diggo1]

Thoughts on Crystal Black Jugada? Couldn’t resist taking 100/1 on Betfair. Not entirely sure if he’s coming though?

 

[Jugada]

Thoughts on Crystal Black Jugada? Couldn’t resist taking 100/1 on Betfair. Not entirely sure if he’s coming though?

Looks very likely to end up out here given current owners want to come and Aussie buyers are also trying to get him to bring out for the Cups so that's a positive.

Whether he is good enough is questionable as horses who are Duke Of Edinburgh horses are typically not good enough out here. Here is a list of horses who have come through that race and ended up out here over the last 5 years

Okita Soushi, Just Fine, Mirann, Raymond Tusk, Favorite Moon, Le Don De Vie, Durston, Collide, Downdraft.

Durston the obvious exception but just an idea of the quality of horse that comes through that race.

Positives would be he has a turn of foot that is needed as he has mainly been a miler in Europe until recently but has improved remarkably well as a 6yo this time in stepping out in trip

 

[Fabab]

Is jugada Paris lite? who are your picks jugada?

 

[Jugada]

Is jugada Paris lite?

 

[Jugada]

So little to go on at the moment so just throwing darts but a loose top 5 would probably be

Middle Earth ($18)
Saint George ($55)
Mark Twain ($26)
Sayedaty Sedaty ($51)
Changingoftheguard ($41)