Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

POST CAULFIELD CUP RANKINGS

Likely going to see a lot of movement after the Geelong Cup and MV Cup in the bottom half but for now

1. BUCKAROO - Had severe doubts on him running out the 2400m last week but the way he ran out that Caulfield Cup I have a lot less doubt on him at Flemington. The absolute quality in the field with strong WFA form and a turn of foot. He doesn't even need to super strong over 2 miles to be winning this, just handle it well enough. Take DDS out of that CC and he wins by 5 with huge margins in behind and cops a big penalty so pretty well weighted with that in mind.

2. ABSURDE - Pushing him above JB with the latter's odds coming in a bit and Sayedaty Sedaty not really franking that Euro 3yo form. Happy to bank on a firmish track at this point which will suit him most of the Euros and we are still getting a reasonable price about him.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Slips down simply because his odds are getting in too short and the form around SS didn't look that strong on Saturday.

4. VAUBAN - Simply through a ton of failures with the locals he has continued to ladder up. Still not a huge fan of the horse and if its a firm track on the day ill be leaving him out of pretty much everything.

5. WARP SPEED - Dreadful in the CC but to be fair it is exactly what I was expecting on a wet track. A firm track and 3200m will be completely different but would want to be getting a decent price about him on the day to make up for getting beat 16L leading in.

6. LAND LEGEND - Couldn't possibly have him beating Buckaroo after the CC but still ran 3rd after getting worked up pre race so has to slot in around here.

7. FRANCESCO GUARDI - Ticking along reasonably well behind WFA horses running on ok over unsuitable trips. Has raced three times beyond 2000m in this country for two huge runs and the flop that was too bad to be true in the CC last year so can see him improving well at his next run and coming into First 4 contention. Needs to pass the ballot still but would want to be doing that if he is any chance anyway.

8. SAINT GEORGE - Likely gone based on last run but if he was to bounce back in the MV Cup he is at least one who has the ability to win at his best which a lot of these don't.

9. KINESIOLOGY - Hard to see him getting a run at this point but if Birdman is favourite in a Geelong Cup and a 30-40s chance then this guy is a watch bringing in better form.

10. OKITA SOUSHI - Simply a tail end of First 4s option but has finally found some sort of form in this country and will run out the 2 miles and if he could run 11th in the race last year I could easily see him picking up a spot or 2 this year.

 

[Hamingja]

I don't think there was a market. Had to put on a multi, but it would work on Sportsbet. I used Pointsbet to put the bet on.
Sportsbet is weird like that sometimes, won't let you put on a 2 race multi if it is the same horse.

It is a related contingency. I couldn't put the double on my accounts, so had a crack today and a small all in bet for the cup. Usually the bookies will give it to you for less than the combined odds but perhaps they just got sick of people arguing about it so don't bother doing that anymore.

 

[diggo1]

Who’d have ever thought 2 of the top 5 in the market would have come through the E(slow)bor.

What a time to be alive. They are 2 of the top 4 on Betfair now. I wish Paris was here to see this sh*t!

David Hegan mentioned that Onesmoothoperator’s rating was so low that he should be carrying 48.5kg. Sea King also had the same rating leading into the Bendigo Cup.

 

[Chism]

What a time to be alive. They are 2 of the top 4 on Betfair now. I wish Paris was here to see this sh*t!

David Hegan mentioned that Onesmoothoperator’s rating was so low that he should be carrying 48.5kg. Sea King also had the same rating leading into the Bendigo Cup.

Says more about our horses than theirs IMO. Aussies are impatient and dont spend big on expensive staying breeds that take a lot of time to come on and mature. Most that are sold here are taken straight overseas for their careers.

We want fast 2yo breeds that will hit the ground running for Blue Diamond type races etc.

It is like taking a young gun key 17yo ruckman with pick No.1 in the draft and you just know in time they will be okay but you have to wait! Most are going the Harley Reid type for instant results!

 

[FFB1]

I don't think there was a market. Had to put on a multi, but it wouldn't work on Sportsbet. I used Pointsbet to put the bet on.
Sportsbet is weird like that sometimes, won't let you put on a 2 race multi if it is the same horse.

Yeah definitely wasn’t one SPB, Lads there was (double allowed with related outcome).

 

[bigblueboy]

Eustace only brought Sea King here to keep Docklands company. Seriously our staying horse depth is the lowest of all time.
Vauban which was found out last year is a level above this year’s Ebor lot.

 

[The GOAT]

Eustace only brought Sea King here to keep Docklands company. Seriously our staying horse depth is the lowest of all time.
Vauban which was found out last year is a level above this year’s Ebor lot.

Tend to agree. Great work those who got the good odds on Sea King but $10 now is big unders for mine. Prefer Absurde and even Vauban if looking at the overseas horses.

 

[Jugada]

Absurde for me looking better and better odds by the day with these other Euro C graders hosing up

 

[Suncraze]

How is Absurde not shorter? Id have it fav with Buck

 

[Viva la Mattner]

How is Absurde not shorter? Id have it fav with Buck

Those on at 41’s laughing

 

[Joker91]

No way a local wins it this year and the Euro invaders are just a class above.

Sea King is a massive chance and i got the $151 as well but couldnt see a market in Sportsbet for the Bendigo double so just took him to win the Cup.

Buckaroo says hi.

 

[Chism]

Buckaroo says hi.

I will happily wave back IF he wins!

 

[Joker91]

I will happily wave back IF he wins!

Just not sure how you can say or believe the euro invaders are a class above…

People getting a bit carried away over a Geelong cup and a Bendigo cup.

 

[bigblueboy]

Just not sure how you can say or believe the euro invaders are a class above…

People getting a bit carried away over a Geelong cup and a Bendigo cup.

The best euros - if you can call them that - haven’t run yet.

 

[Sockeye]

If anything, The wins by Smooth Operator and Sea King have made me reassess the chances of Vauban and Absurde. Rewatching the 2023 Cup, if Absurde was ridden a bit quiter he definitely runs a place.
Steffi from barrier 4 in the GE should give a sight. 140/1 Ab x Steffi good enough.

 

[mcs095]

Just not sure how you can say or believe the euro invaders are a class above…

People getting a bit carried away over a Geelong cup and a Bendigo cup.

Happens so often. The form can stack up at times, especially for minor places, but I'd be suprised if a weak Bendigo Cup with a long tail that allowed the softest of wins for the winner amounts to anything, despite the poor quality field for the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Track was upgraded last year to a good3 late in the day. Doesn't look like a lot of rain coming (I'm not in Melbourne), could be looking at something similar this year.

My notes do say to treat the early races like a soft5. The early start combined with the overnight watering, that is needed.

 

[Aussie Assault]

If anything, The wins by Smooth Operator and Sea King have made me reassess the chances of Vauban and Absurde. Rewatching the 2023 Cup, if Absurde was ridden a bit quiter he definitely runs a place.
Steffi from barrier 4 in the GE should give a sight. 140/1 Ab x Steffi good enough.

Dunno about that with Absurde. It sat midfield away from that leading pack with it's stablemate. Yeah it may have hit the front fractionally early before it was gobbled up by Without a Fight, but that was due more to circumstance of that leading group of horses dying at the top of the straight rather than Purton getting going. It and WaF really got riding around the same time and it was only that Absurbe was closer in running that it ended up leading. Of the top 10ish horses across the line, it was the only one going backwards.

Vauban had a similar run to Absurbe, yet it gave 2 pumps and gave nothing a long way from home.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Happens so often. The Geelong Cup form occasionally stacks up to some degree, but I'd be astounded if a weak Bendigo Cup with a long, long tail that allowed the softest of wins for the winner amounts to anything, despite the poor quality field for the Melbourne Cup.

Small sample size, but Bendigo Cup winner gets you thereabouts the last couple of years.

2023 - Interpreation 6th in the Melb Cup
2022 - High Emocean 3rd in the Melb Cup

 

[balmainforever]

 

[mcs095]

Small sample size, but Bendigo Cup winner gets you thereabouts the last couple of years.

2023 - Interpreation 6th in the Melb Cup
2022 - High Emocean 3rd in the Melb Cup

Very small sample size, and 6th doesn't mean a whole lot really - just an early loser after all.


Could well see another place getter this year - but not sure its a strong form line all the same. Saying that, there arguably are no strong form lines this year with the dross that will be running around haha.

 

[lightred]

Dunno about that with Absurde. It sat midfield away from that leading pack with it's stablemate. Yeah it may have hit the front fractionally early before it was gobbled up by Without a Fight, but that was due more to circumstance of that leading group of horses dying at the top of the straight rather than Purton getting going. It and WaF really got riding around the same time and it was only that Absurbe was closer in running that it ended up leading. Of the top 10ish horses across the line, it was the only one going backwards.

Vauban had a similar run to Absurbe, yet it gave 2 pumps and gave nothing a long way from home.

I see vauban/absurde the same way as this. They had no excuses last year and weren't good enough (by a fair margin). I don't think they are going significantly better this year & they will likely get the same track conditions.

Who you got on top Aussie?

 

[Peter Doherty]

Very small sample size, and 6th doesn't mean a whole lot really - just an early loser after all.


Could well see another place getter this year - but not sure its a strong form line all the same. Saying that, there arguably are no strong form lines this year with the dross that will be running around haha.

6th, in a field of 23.

 

[Peter Doherty]

I see vauban/absurde the same way as this. They had no excuses last year and weren't good enough (by a fair margin). I don't think they are going significantly better this year & they will likely get the same track conditions.

Who you got on top Aussie?

They will want to be fit as a starting point. I remember Vauban in particular paraded terribly, melted with the crowd and to the knowledgeable watchers looked unfit.

There's been a lot of talk about how that camp have changed up a few things, think the prepace will be pivotal.