Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

Last top 10 thoughts before Tuesday. Will post my actual bets later if anyone is interested but...


1. BUCKAROO - Just has to go on top for me after that Caulfield Cup run. Whether there are doubts on the trip or not the eye test from that race said back me in a MC. Brings through the super strong WFA form which historically is very good and just has panels on what these others are coming through. Draws the carpark but really not that concerned when they have an age to find a position and he can slot in anywhere in the run and be fine.

2. ABSURDE - Brings across much stronger form than the Euros who have already been out here and dominated and price has barely budged the whole way through. Travelled and ran well enough last year in a stronger race and meeting the stablemate a kilo better off a good advantage.

3. VAUBAN - Another Euro who brings out much better form than the ones we have already seen out here. Failing last year as favourite isn't ideal but basically the same horse and getting a bigger price this year in a weaker field. I do have concerns on a firm track but his best is better than most we have seen.

4. SEA KING - Fantastic win in the Bendigo Cup making a run from a long way out and just going clear up the straight. Little between him and Onesmoothoperator but have to give him the slight edge coming through the Ebor together where he held an SP profile advantage and have seen nothing in their runs out here to move the needle on either of them.

5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - Great win in the Geelong Cup showing a decent turn of speed off a slowly run race. Should suit these conditions but have yo have him just behind Sea King.

6. SAINT GEORGE - Entire prep looked absolutely cooked coming up to the bend in the MV Gold Cup but really got warmed up late for a nice Cup trial. One time favourite and on his European form last year would be likely winning so you at least know he has a level in him that could win if 3200m at Flemington wakes him up.

7. OKITA SOUSHI - Finally found form in this country and running well. Was going like complete dog shit into the race last year and still ran pretty well so should go much better this year. Will be really strong at the end of 2 miles as well.

8. WARP SPEED - Went like shit at Caulfield but to be fair that's exactly what most were expecting once the track was soft. Flemington and a firm track are what he needs and at his best could easily be running into F4s here and we are getting a price now to find out for exotics.

9. MOSTLY CLOUDY - Looking for the Sheraz style blow out chances now for rough F4s because I don't think there is much between what we have here in the staying ranks and the ones at triple figures are only marginally behind those much shorter. He is a real tough 2 miler who will run the trip right and SPd $4.80 against Point King a couple runs ago who was like 4th or 5th pick in the betting before coming out.

10. FANCY MAN - Another real bolter to include for F4s. Was 3WNC in the Naturalism and ran well, ran a decent 3rd in the Herbert Power just behind Okita Soushi and then 6th in the Caulfield Cup was probably better than everything outside the first 3 home.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Sushi into 11's from $20....

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

There’s some money going around already.

 

[mcs095]

Sushi into 11's from $20....

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Some money for St George too, in from $31 to $23 on B365. A bit of easing too as well on a few that I think are very skinny at current odds - Land Legend, Zardozi, Interpretation, and even Buckaroo getting out a little bit too.

Means not too much really at this point, but interesting to observe nonetheless.

 

[Jugada]

Interpretation might get out to a price you can throw in exotics again

 

[Bombers32]

Yep definitely could see it getting buried. Personally just put very little stock into both barriers and jockeys in these sort of races. Not enough difference for me to bother factoring that much into it

I’m more the opposite and think barriers and jocks are always important, Cup included. Joe jumping Buckaroo from 21 has far less margin for error. I can’t have Buck at 6’s given the potential for a poor map on a horse that is questionable at 2 miles.

 

[Jugada]

I’m more the opposite and think barriers and jocks are always important, Cup included. Joe jumping Buckaroo from 21 has far less margin for error. I can’t have Buck at 6’s given the potential for a poor map on a horse that is questionable at 2 miles.

With an 800m straight to find a position on a horse that can slot in anywhere I'm not overly bothered. It factors into the price more than it matters I think.

 

[Bombers32]

With an 800m straight to find a position on a horse that can slot in anywhere I'm not overly bothered. It factors into the price more than it matters I think.

Good point and good reference to price. I’d be more inclined to include at a far better price given the unknowns. Joe won’t be aggressive or push hard early and that’ll leave him needing to potentially round up the big field and the 2 miles might come into play. Will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

 

[qarocks]

whats everyones betting strategy for the win? favs rarely win, but this year seems kinda weak. with the top 2 around $6 if you bet on 3+ your returns start to drop off pretty quick.

what about trifectas?

 

[mcs095]

whats everyones betting strategy for the win? favs rarely win, but this year seems kinda weak. with the top 2 around $6 if you bet on 3+ your returns start to drop off pretty quick.

what about trifectas?

Everyone is different, and depends on $ you want to spend in regards to trifectas.

I reckon this year is one depending on budget) for taking your top few picks, a couple of mid tier chances (i.e. those around $20 +) and a wipe out option for 1st and 2nd, and then going wide with a fair amount of horses for 3rd. If you can afford/be willing to spend that much.

I don't think the roughies are good enough to win it this year (although there is always a risk of a total blowout - so never mind throwing one in). I usually spend about $200 on a trifecta of some form in the cup (50/50 with the Mrs). Haven't yet decided how I'll do it this year, but probably will do something like: 6 or 7 horses for 1st and 2nd, Those horses + 4 or 5 others for 3rd. Usually aim to get 50% of the dividend.

But I'm not a hugely confident punter on the horses (more of a sports/dishlickers man), so I like to go wide and give lots of opportunities - whereas one could argue its a narrow cup in terms of genuine chances that could win it), and have more sophisticated approaches, including some on here that have been successful in the past.

 

[Bucking Beads]

$5EW on all the $100 pops and hope one lands

 

[Play On Advantage]

Any thoughts about Sea King being second up from the crew on here?

I really finding it hard to judge as a runner - I certainly think it is very skinny in the markets, but it was impressive at Bendigo (albeit imho a pretty shallow field). - but how much consideration should be given to just how horrendous it has been second up the last two times, after winning first up... seems a horse when it runs poorly, it runs pretty badly.

Go an watch Sea Kings Slowbor run. It's actually a ripping run. Gets held up at least 3 times in the straight before waiting for Onesmoothoperator to get passed him and shifting lines to go around him at the 100m mark and still beats him. He's skinny in price now, but to my eye he's shown the ability to do a long sustained run and has very good tactical speed.

I would take the Bendigo run as a positive that it has shown it's arrive well here and not be too fussed about 2nd up form.

Gotta thank Jugada for tipping most here into it at $100+

 

[kicksome]

Go an watch Sea Kings Slowbor run. It's actually a ripping run. Gets held up at least 3 times in the straight before waiting for Onesmoothoperator to get passed him and shifting lines to go around him at the 100m mark and still beats him

I might be mistaken but from memory there was a really unlucky run in that race where I actually thought it was sea king but it ended up being a horse called Hipop De Loire, which finished right beside them.
I got them mixed up

 

[Jugada]

I might be mistaken but from memory there was a really unlucky run in that race where I actually thought it was sea king but it ended up being a horse called Hipop De Loire, which finished right beside them.
I got them mixed up

Yep tragedy that he failed the vets or didn't come or whatever

 

[dontlimitme]

a horse called Hipop De Loire

incredible name as well lmao

 

[Play On Advantage]

I might be mistaken but from memory there was a really unlucky run in that race where I actually thought it was sea king but it ended up being a horse called Hipop De Loire, which finished right beside them.
I got them mixed up

Disappointingly, you are right. God it wouldn't kill them to have decent 4K replay.

Those 3 hit the line together. Sea king rail, OSO middle, HDL outside.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Totally Confused.

Aussie form says Buckaroo but will get the trip. I guess he does not know his Dad is Fastnet Rock.

Vauban Has the best O/S form but hard to forget last years failure.

Onesmoothoperator and Sea King were both good in the country cups but hard to get enthused on O/S form and how strong were those races.

Interpretation will run the trip but lacks class.

Warp Speed was terrible in the CC Cup even allowing for the track but had good Japanese form

Oukita Soushi beat Serpentine in MV Cup say no more

Land Legend is a chance but will he settle

Every horse remotely in the market has question marks and the others are just crap.


I guess I am trusting Francesca who says that Vauban is much improved horse physically and mentally and his form this time is in better races. So it is:

1, Vauban
2. Buckaroo
3. Interpretation
4 Warp Speed

 

[Aussie Assault]

Sportsbet same race multi doing Top 10 for the cup.
I think there's some good bets to be had there, pick 4 or 5 runners to get top 10 and will get some nice odds

These are good!

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

To be clear, I doñt believe it will win, but it's the kind of year that something like Valiant King wins, to throw everything into a spin.

 

[cruskits]

Latest forecast has Melbourne up to 25 on Cup day with some outlets calling 27. This was about 20 not even a week ago. Can see it going up a little bit more over the next 24 hours.

BOM has it 27 now and still warming up….

 

[Suncraze]

Here comes the money for Absurde! Into $7.50

 

[PieBeast]

I have Interpretation going for over 10K, can somebody please tell me i'm at least a 1 percent chance

 

[cruskits]

I have Interpretation going for over 10K, can somebody please tell me i'm at least a 1 percent chance

A definite chance… fairytale story

 

[kicksome]

i cant believe both the geelong cup and bendigo cup winners have me thinking they can win it. Years gone by i would be kidding myself but its just one of those types of years.
buckaroo drawn wide af.
Can vauban and absurde improve?
zardozi with the unusual prep and can it improve from the CC?

all i know is that i am ready to lose money.
melbourne cup is here lads

 

[Pancakes]

Has there been a Melb cup before when the top weight has carried less than 55.5kg?

 

[mcs095]

I have Interpretation going for over 10K, can somebody please tell me i'm at least a 1 percent chance

As good as any chance if one of the few key favourites don't waltz away with the race.

I don't think it quite has the class to get the job done unless there is a fair bit of misfortune, bad riding or whatever else with the best horses in the race, but you know it'll probably be thereabouts when it matters.

 

[Sockeye]

Yeah, I'm confused with where to place Sea King and Smooth Operator.
If my dodgy maths is correct The Ebor was run about 5 seconds slower than the pace they usually run in the Cup, and over 400m less.
Doesn't sound like much but it is about 60 meters, (80 meters off WAF pace last year) and they ran 5th and 6th. This is normal for the Ebor, hence Paris' nickname the Slowbor.
Smooth Operators Geelong Cup was won in decent time for a Geelong Cup, similar to Emissary and Prince Arran, who both ran very well in their Melbourne Cups, but is still well short of the pace WAF runs to win the CC last year over the same distance.
To the eye Sea Kings and Smooth Ops recent Cup wins looked great, but maybe because they beat nothing?
Conclusion, F if I know?? but seems they are unlikely to win, but certainly could run into 3rd or 4th at best, and anything they beat in those races is hard to see running top 6, except Interpretation, who was gaining ground and we know from last year gets the trip.