Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

Last top 10 thoughts before Tuesday. Will post my actual bets later if anyone is interested but...


1. BUCKAROO - Just has to go on top for me after that Caulfield Cup run. Whether there are doubts on the trip or not the eye test from that race said back me in a MC. Brings through the super strong WFA form which historically is very good and just has panels on what these others are coming through. Draws the carpark but really not that concerned when they have an age to find a position and he can slot in anywhere in the run and be fine.

2. ABSURDE - Brings across much stronger form than the Euros who have already been out here and dominated and price has barely budged the whole way through. Travelled and ran well enough last year in a stronger race and meeting the stablemate a kilo better off a good advantage.

3. VAUBAN - Another Euro who brings out much better form than the ones we have already seen out here. Failing last year as favourite isn't ideal but basically the same horse and getting a bigger price this year in a weaker field. I do have concerns on a firm track but his best is better than most we have seen.

4. SEA KING - Fantastic win in the Bendigo Cup making a run from a long way out and just going clear up the straight. Little between him and Onesmoothoperator but have to give him the slight edge coming through the Ebor together where he held an SP profile advantage and have seen nothing in their runs out here to move the needle on either of them.

5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - Great win in the Geelong Cup showing a decent turn of speed off a slowly run race. Should suit these conditions but have yo have him just behind Sea King.

6. SAINT GEORGE - Entire prep looked absolutely cooked coming up to the bend in the MV Gold Cup but really got warmed up late for a nice Cup trial. One time favourite and on his European form last year would be likely winning so you at least know he has a level in him that could win if 3200m at Flemington wakes him up.

7. OKITA SOUSHI - Finally found form in this country and running well. Was going like complete dog shit into the race last year and still ran pretty well so should go much better this year. Will be really strong at the end of 2 miles as well.

8. WARP SPEED - Went like shit at Caulfield but to be fair that's exactly what most were expecting once the track was soft. Flemington and a firm track are what he needs and at his best could easily be running into F4s here and we are getting a price now to find out for exotics.

9. MOSTLY CLOUDY - Looking for the Sheraz style blow out chances now for rough F4s because I don't think there is much between what we have here in the staying ranks and the ones at triple figures are only marginally behind those much shorter. He is a real tough 2 miler who will run the trip right and SPd $4.80 against Point King a couple runs ago who was like 4th or 5th pick in the betting before coming out.

10. FANCY MAN - Another real bolter to include for F4s. Was 3WNC in the Naturalism and ran well, ran a decent 3rd in the Herbert Power just behind Okita Soushi and then 6th in the Caulfield Cup was probably better than everything outside the first 3 home.

 

[Sockeye]

Should add that there is no WAF this year, or peak Gold Trip, so you might not need to run the times they did to win.

 

[Jamz]

Interpretation's run in the Geelong Cup was pretty good.

 

[cruskits]

Vauban - Had the dream run last year three back the fence and when asked for at the top of the straight it found zilch. They have made a heap of changes to its lead up prep this year and that could be the difference. Is going to hate the warm day that is getting warmer by the hour. Will probably be sweating up again. Perfect barrier to launch from a long way out. It is either going to win by panels or come 14th again.

Buckaroo - Different horse since being gelded. Running really well in WFA races, one of the form horses this Spring. Out of Galileo (which has never won a MC but places a lot), question marks are still there on the 3200m. Jockey is hungry to win one and the trainer knows what he is doing. Top chance if it runs the trip. Will have to go further back than they planned, cut the corner and weave.

Circle of Fire - Like the trainer and profile being a 4YO Stallion. Can run the 2 miles. Just not doing anything in its races. One paced and not running on or making an impression at all. That Sydney Cup running three wide the trip no cover might have cooked it. Was going to have this in my F4’s all along, but am leaving out of everything.

Warp Speed - No idea. Its run in the CC didn’t give us anything, can’t imagine it appreciated the give in the ground. Jeez, what do you do with this horse. My gut says no. Imagine being knocked out of your F4’s leaving out the Jap horse. Gets a dry track, will be back on the fence and will have to wait for its chance to wind up. No from me.

Kovalica - Interesting runner, was the MC was the plan all along? Out of Ocean Park so worth a shot to see if it can run the trip. It has form around some good horses this Spring and thinking that the CP run might bring her on again. Will put in the backend of F4’s. Drops a little bit of weight. Waller is on fire.

Sharp ’N’ Smart - Trained by Williams old trainer Rogerson. Hasn’t showed much until the MV running into 3rd. Looks better on top of the ground and over a trip. Doesn’t mind Flemington and was caught 4WNC in the white hot Turnbull Stakes towing Via into the race. Can begin fairly so should put itself into a spot. Initially totally dismissed him but putting it in.

Just Fine - Front runner with attractive racing pattern. Won through to the MC winning the Bart Cummings. Out of Seaofthestars. Been racing in G3’s. I think the owners are just happy to be there. Will be leaving out of everything.

Land Legend - If this horse settles it should run a huge race. If the 90,000 people get to her on the way out to the gates or she throws her head around the first 1800m then her race is done and dusted. Good breeding. Think he would have liked some more pace in this race. Great profile and got a trainer and a jockey. Don’t mind it being three wide in the run. Back end of F4’s on the chance it settles. Ear muffs on doesn't fill you with great confidence.

Absurde - He only just missed 4th last year with the perfect run in transit but faded badly last 150m. Think it is running just as well if not better and drops in weight from last year. Gets McEvoy here who whilst isn’t the same jock he once was, does know this race like the back of his hand winning three. Perfect gate again. From memory a tonne of money came for it in the last 5 minutes before the jump. Expect the same this year. I reckon instructions will be to hold it for an extra 100/150m this year before pushing the button. He only has a short sprint on him.

Athabascan - Unlucky runs last few before a good run in the St. Ledger. Not sold on the form or the horses it was running against in that run. Looks like it wants it wet to run up to its peak and will not get conditions to suit. Has run the trip and run it well earlier in the year. Will sting if it turns up but leaving out.

Knights Choice - Leaving out of everything. Every horse in the race was running past it in the Turnbull. Getting fractious behind the barriers, will not help on MC Day. Out of Duke of Marmalade which is good. No from me

Okita Soushi - Settling a little closer to the speed last couple. Second prep in Australia and seems to be hitting form at the right time. Got a trainer who knows how to produce. Jockey riding on emotion. Would be a hell of a story. Warming more and more to the Sushi train. MV cup winners don’t usually do much in the MC. Has run the distance, got shuffled back to last, last year when drew wide. Dry track out of a Galilleo x Fastnet Rock. Spewing about the extra kilo. Hoping Kah lets a few go past it and puts him to sleep one out 4/5 back.

Onesmoothoperator - Good run in the Geelong Cup. Has been up and running each month since March 2022, WTF!! This would be a true fairytale story with the trainer winning his hometown cup (Northumberland Plate) with this horse earlier this year. Ellison, keeps on fronting up and presenting horses to this race. Has a sense of timing about it. Will run the distance and showed a turn of foot. Got the right jockey on its back. POA feels all over again. Australia might just be the ultimate gear change. Draws perfectly.

Zardozi - Liked it for the CC, had the run of the race but couldn’t go with them. It was flying before that run and loves racing at Flemington. Ran the Saturday before the MC, loves the quick backup, winning twice off it. You have to be a special Mare to run a place in the MC. I’m putting it in.

Sea King - Same sire as Marmelo, took off from the 1000m mark to claim victory in the time honoured Bendigo Cup. Funny though that the BC has shown a bit of form in the MC in the last few of years. Has run 7 times over 2500m for one win and no placings, also 0/4 second up. Hollie Doyle first time ever riding in a MC, jetlagged. Barrier 1. It will miss the kick and be buried back and pulling. Leaving out.

Valiant King - Gets into good positions in its runs. Has every chance to show something and then doesn’t. Leaving out of everything. Be prepared to be Wallered with this one.

Fancy Man - Hasn’t placed at over 2400m from multiple attempts. Has been running some OK races since coming back from an injury lay off. Is out of a Galileo. Trainers haven’t exactly been setting it alight lately. Doesn’t seem to like big fields, did have the dream run in the CC but still didn’t make a huge impression. Leaving out

Interpretation - Running to the same level as last year getting in with the same weight. Was trucking into the race along with WAF and then badly held up at the 600m mark last year (worth a watch), had to circle the entire field. Do they get a little bit more aggressive out of the gates and push a bit further forward from 14. They are peaking it for the run. If it can cut the corner and weave instead of going around the whole field it could surprise. I love they are running with the same jockey as last year.

Manzoice - Nup

Mostly Cloudy - Finally gets back on top of the ground. Bred out of the much loved Montjeu. Loves the track, loves the distance. Can hold a spot mid field. This years Sheraz?? Going into my exotics.

Positivity - 4YO Mare trained by Forsman. Prepped to run to its peak 5th up. You have to be a stellar mare to run a place in the MC. I think she should run a good race but not having in my F4.

Saint George - Now this would be a story. 4YO Stallion with 50kg on its back. The rate of attrition in the years cup has made this possible. Held up first run, loomed but didn’t finish second run after 14 months off the scene, third run didn’t like the soft track and then a kind of flashing light run last start in the MVGC. Breeding’s good, will see out the trip based on runs back in Europe. Set for this race. Its feet are a mess with bar plates on. Maher and Ozzie teaming up. Don’t mind the booking of Tyler Schiller, first time he has ever rode for Maher.

The Map - Just not showing anything when presented with opportunities this prep. They have the luxury of a guaranteed start and therefore can train a bit differently but its runs have been underwhelming. Gets back to Flemington but leaving out of everything. Could bite back this one.

Trust In You - Tried over the trip with no success. Would prefer softer ground. Actually not running the worst. Can’t have.

1st: Bucks, OSO, ’terps, King George
2nd: Bucks, LL, Absurde, OSO, Sushi Train, Dozy, ’terps, King George
3rd: Bucks, Special K, Sharpy, LL, Absurde, OSM, Sushi Train, Dozy, ’terps, Cloudy, King George
4th: Bucks, Special K, Sharpy, LL, Absurde, OSO, Sushi Train, Dozy, ’terps, Cloudy, King George

Will get 20% for $400

My notes I always refer back to:

• Read as much as you can but always back yourself in, you can’t have them all
• Always reduce your win bet and spend more on a F4. A percentage of a MC F4 divvy can be short term life changing

Side Note: Have Saint George going for $11,146.76 all up combined in two separate stake bets. One $47 stake, multied up with Cripps to win the Brownlow. Other was a $10, 3 leg multi I placed last Thursday with Royal Toronado and Super Smink over here at Ascot in Perth on the weekend into Saint George when he was $61.

Once again have thoroughly enjoyed reading the thread these last few months. Thank you to all the contributors and good luck Tuesday.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Great preview . Hollie Doyle rode Future History last year.

 

[Gaston]

Has there been a Melb cup before when the top weight has carried less than 55.5kg?

They changed the rules, previously if the top weight didn't accept for the race, the weights would be raised so to have a top weight carrying 57 or 58kgs.

As per totmorrow's cup, these rules no longer apply.

 

[Hawksboy72]

Don't know who to back...got reservations on nearly all of them.


On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[pendlebury_10]

Can someone also do Paris’ preview where half the field are cats or should be turned into dog food ?

 

[Jamz]

They’ve started swinging into Zardozi, 21 into 12 is the official fluctuation although I only seen 17 after the barrier draw.

 

[Sockeye]

They’ve started swinging into Zardozi, 21 into 12 is the official fluctuation although I only seen 17 after the barrier draw.

Think that's the bookies playing games. They wind them in to flush out the punters who think they are losing their price.
They have already done a few - Absurde now Zardozi.

 

[Aussie Assault]

Can someone also do Paris’ preview where half the field are cats or should be turned into dog food ?

1. Vauban (11)
2. Buckaroo (21)
3. Circle Of Fire (24)
4. Warp Speed (3)
5. Kovalica (17)
6. Sharp 'N' Smart (15)
7. Just Fine (13)
8. Land Legend (18)
9. Absurde (7)
10. Athabascan (2)
11. Knight's Choice (6)
12. Okita Soushi (10)
13. Onesmoothoperator (12)
14. Zardozi (4)
15. Sea King (1)
16. Valiant King (22)
17. Fancy Man (19)
18. Interpretation (14)
19. Manzoice (8)
20. Mostly Cloudy (16)
21. Positivity (20)
22. Saint George (9)
23. The Map (23)
24. Trust In You (5)

 

[dontlimitme]

paris is going to puke when kovalica wins this

 

[FFB1]

Arrived at the Call, the Wolfden boys are on the table next to us, should be entertaining

 

[pendlebury_10]

Arrived at the Call, the Wolfden boys are on the table next to us, should be entertaining

Can you please strike up conversation with one of them to see if they are decent human beings ?
Kingsley Bartholomew the third comes across as an A grade fl0g

 

[FFB1]

Call about to start boys (and girls). The Wolfden gang have their video cameras read to record;Kingsley got stripped out 2 years ago, only $7k loss last year. I’ll post any pints of note.

 

[FFB1]

Trust in You to win $200k.

 

[FFB1]

The Map 500ew $71

 

[FFB1]

St. George - all of them stick at $26 to the mirth of the room.

 

[FFB1]

Nobody taking $26

Edit to win $200k I think.

 

[FFB1]

Positively $201

$1k each way Juppy

 

[FFB1]

Mostly cloudy $400 at $101

 

[FFB1]

Manzoice $151 no bets

 

[FFB1]

Interpretation $21.Wolfden boys and cameras ready to go.

Win $500k

 

[FFB1]

Fancy man $151.

$1k each way

 

[Play On Advantage]

For those who are not fully aware, can you explain what the call of the card is and how it works?

 

[FFB1]

V King.

$151, few bets, best to win $250k I think.