F1 The Wash Up - Previous 2024 Race Weekends

[Simon_Nesbit]

Oscar is 44 points behind Lando, and 106 behind Max. (Leclerc is currently 3rd, 20 points above Oscar).

Oscar has outscored Lando over the last 4 races, by a whopping 3 points.

The time for this argument was before Zandvoort. Lando's dominant performance there essentially ended Oscar's challenge. Oscar's outscored Max by 25 points over the same time, but he's simply too far back.

He's not catching Lando in the championship, let alone Max. Catching Leclerc (20 points) for 3rd is more realistic, but also requires Ferrari to drop off.

Even if Oscar won every race from now, with Lando 2nd and Charles 3rd - they all end up with 397 points or less. Max could come home fourth each race and still take the WDC.

Change that order to Lando winning every race, and Max needs to finish 2nd every race to keep the championship.

I think Oscar will win a WDC before Lando. I think Oscar will have a better career. I also think McLaren already favour Norris unfairly. I don't think Oscar will be directly asked to give up positions, at least not unless Lando gets within a race win (25pts) of Max.

 

[Jatz]

No, saying Oscar is "no chance" is ridiculous. In fact, I don't think you understand the logic behind saying "No reason he can't", because he absolutely can.

A lot can happen. We're talking about an entire third of the season here. He doesn't need to win 6 of 8, he needs to win 2-3 and be on the podium for the others. Granted, it requires Max and Lando to have poorer races, but with the form of Mercedes and Ferrari in the last few races, it's not impossible.

Obviously, Lando has a higher probability of catching Max at this point, but it's too early to be putting all your eggs in that basket. Especially when there has been races when Oscar simply looks the quicker of the two.

So in your absolute best case scenario (where Oscar only gets good luck and Max/Lando/Charles only get bad luck):

3 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds lands him at approximately 350 points.

Max just needs to come 6th or better across those 8 races to cover that off...

Lando is the only one that is realistically any chance of catching Max. Anything else is just fantasy.

 

[Sixpence]

So in your absolute best case scenario (where Oscar only gets good luck and Max/Lando/Charles only get bad luck):

3 wins, 3 seconds and 2 thirds lands him at approximately 350 points.

Max just needs to come 6th or better across those 8 races to cover that off...

Lando is the only one that is realistically any chance of catching Max. Anything else is just fantasy.

I've given you a scenario that's plausible.

Hawthorn made finals after an 0-5 start. Raikkonen won the last two races of 2007 to win the title over Lewis who got a DNF and a 7th place. Vettel won 3 of the last 4 races of 2010 to win the title too.

To quote Murray Walker: "Anything can happen in Formula 1 and it usually does!"

FWIW, I wouldn't put my house on it, just saying that it can be done. I more than realise the likelihood of it isn't high and would take some luck as well as strong results.

 

[skam85]

Copied my post from the F1 main thread

Just some stats on the title fight:

232 points on offer for the remaining races.

To win the driver's championship:
Norris must outscore Max by 8pts per race
Leclerc - 11pts
Piastri - 14pts
Sainz - 15pts
Hamilton - 18pts

While Russell and Perez are still mathematically a chance, nobody really care about either of them.

The remainder of the field can now no longer mathematically win the 2024 WDC.

I have more faith in Leclerc winning a race on merit than Lando.

All in all it seems to be a 2009 repeat, Button ran out to a big lead, Vettel almost reeled him in but fell short.

I still back Max in to dig deep and take at least one more race win, and a few podiums. That will need Lando to almost win every single race but there's just too many other good cars taking points, like Oscar, Ferrari and Lewis.

 

[Jatz]

I've given you a scenario that's plausible.

Hawthorn made finals after an 0-5 start. Raikkonen won the last two races of 2007 to win the title over Lewis who got a DNF and a 7th place. Vettel won 3 of the last 4 races of 2010 to win the title too.

To quote Murray Walker: "Anything can happen in Formula 1 and it usually does!"

FWIW, I wouldn't put my house on it, just saying that it can be done. I more than realise the likelihood of it isn't high and would take some luck as well as strong results.

Except what you're talking about has never happened in F1...

 

[happy_eagle]

Except what you're talking about has never happened in F1...

Can Oscar win the world title this year

Mathematically = Yes
Realistically = No

 

[Forward Press]

Mathematically, I have a chance at hooking up with global superstar Taylor Swift.

Realistically, it's far more likely that I run over Mark Taylor in my Suzuki Swift.

 

[Gunf]

Lando has had the fastest car since around Miami and has bottled it or his team has bottled it so may times since.

While Max had the fastest car he made sure to take as many points as possible and even when he no longer had the fastest car he still got the maximum amount of points possible pretty much every time.

If you swap which driver is in which car and put Lando in the Redbull from the start and Max in the MCL. Max is clearly winning the title at this point as he would of maximised points early and won i would say at least 5+ races since Miami.
And he probably would have won 1 or 2 early when the Redbull was by far the best car as at some point Lando according to recent history would have bottled a few races

 

[Duck Farmer]

As they pleaded with Lando on the radio in Hungary, saying you can't win this without Oscar's help, this is the time to start helping IMO. It could be situation reversed next year. If it was for a race win then i agree, but swapping 2nd and third seems like a no brainer at this point. And i hate Lando!

My point was that if Lando stopped bottling his first laps and McLaren stopped fluffing their strategy then they wouldn't need Oscar to sacrifice himself. If they can't do the first two, Lando ain't winning the WDC. The conversation only turns to Oscar once Lando or the team has stuffed something up. If they want that, recruit a loyal wingman like Bottas and see how well they do.

Edit: what Gunf said above.

 

[Jatz]

Mathematically, I have a chance at hooking up with global superstar Taylor Swift.

Realistically, it's far more likely that I run over Mark Taylor in my Suzuki Swift.

Mark Taylor out here catching stray...Suzuki Swifts

 

[Not Important]

Can Oscar win the world title this year

Mathematically = Yes
Realistically = No

reckon it won’t be long before team rules will clearly favor norris. there was talk that the so-called ‘papaya rules’ would be adjusted.

 

[Vader]

Apparently the damage to Russell's front end plate wasn't the result of contact with Piastri going into the 1st corner - it was apparently due to contact with Verstappen's left-rear wheel after he re-joined the track. This contact wasn't shown in the broadcast, as they (quite reasonably) chose to focus on replays of the two Papayas going head-to-head.
https://au.motorsport.com/f1/news/t...on-penalty-call-early-in-italian-gp/10650708/

 

[Duck Farmer]

Apparently the damage to Russell's front end plate wasn't the result of contact with Piastri going into the 1st corner - it was apparently due to contact with Verstappen's left-rear wheel after he re-joined the track. This contact wasn't shown in the broadcast, as they (quite reasonably) chose to focus on replays of the two Papayas going head-to-head.
https://au.motorsport.com/f1/news/t...on-penalty-call-early-in-italian-gp/10650708/

Russell's slaloming through the barriers on the chicane run off was pretty impressive. Reminded me of a Forza Horizon driving challenge.

 

[gaskin]

F1TV commentary were saying it probably happened when he was slaloming through the bollards and you can see him visibly hit one of the last ones.

 

[Vader]

F1TV commentary were saying it probably happened when he was slaloming through the bollards and you can see him visibly hit one of the last ones.

Apparently it happened when he hit Max, after re-emerging from the bollards. I presume this would be supported by on-board camera shots.

 

[Barrybran]

Russell's slaloming through the barriers on the chicane run off was pretty impressive. Reminded me of a Forza Horizon driving challenge.

You would have loved lap 1 of the F2 then

 

[BomberFan355]

F1TV commentary were saying it probably happened when he was slaloming through the bollards and you can see him visibly hit one of the last ones.

I saw the start of Ted's Notebook yesterday where he said it was from contact with Oscari and i was confused as it never looked like he touched Oscar.

 

[imadodgyumpire]

Some of you might want to calm down over Norris' bad starts and make out like he's some mental pygmy.

Every mention of his bad starts just automatically reminds me of Damon Hill being crap at starts through 96.

Towards the end of the season, he started nailing them.

If you followed motogp (or not blinded by F1 for that matter), you'd recognise that Fabio Quartararo scored 6 PP in 19 for no wins.

Scored 4 PP in 20, the most of anyone that season, and was nowhere near championship contention, which is where he was expected to be.

If you don't know of Quartararo's record since. He turned it around.

 

[Duck Farmer]

Some of you might want to calm down over Norris' bad starts and make out like he's some mental pygmy.

Every mention of his bad starts just automatically reminds me of Damon Hill being crap at starts through 96.

Towards the end of the season, he started nailing them.

If you followed motogp (or not blinded by F1 for that matter), you'd recognise that Fabio Quartararo scored 6 PP in 19 for no wins.

Scored 4 PP in 20, the most of anyone that season, and was nowhere near championship contention, which is where he was expected to be.

If you don't know of Quartararo's record since. He turned it around.

Lando's a great talent. Oscar's just as great a talent, and maybe potentially better.

Most of the anti-Lando comments are reactions to the constant calls by the Sky UK mafia for Oscar to gift Lando a win as if he was trailing Max by 3 points in the WDC in the last race of the season.

 

[Black_White]

F1TV commentary were saying it probably happened when he was slaloming through the bollards and you can see him visibly hit one of the last ones.

Except for the fact he hit Oscar on the right hand side of the car, and hit the bollard on the left hand side of the car.
Right hand end plate was damaged, not left.

 

[Vader]

Except for the fact he hit Oscar on the right hand side of the car, and hit the bollard on the left hand side of the car.
Right hand end plate was damaged, not left.

To be fair to the F1TV commentary team, the collision which caused the end plate damage was not shown on TV. It was the result of him hitting Verstappen after re-joining the track. That particular collision was not shown because they were too busy showing replays of the Papaya cars going head-to-head.

I don't blame them for being confused about the source of the damage, given that it was never shown in the broadcast. I was guilty of the same thing, assuming that it was the result of Piastri swerving left across his front at the start.

 

[BomberFan355]

To be fair to the F1TV commentary team, the collision which caused the end plate damage was not shown on TV. It was the result of him hitting Verstappen after re-joining the track. That particular collision was not shown because they were too busy showing replays of the Papaya cars going head-to-head.

I don't blame them for being confused about the source of the damage, given that it was never shown in the broadcast. I was guilty of the same thing, assuming that it was the result of Piastri swerving left across his front at the start.

They showed Russel's in car replay showing Piastri moving across, I'm sure.

Just checked and yeah they did and it does look like Oscar clipped Russel's wing.

 

[Vader]

They showed Russel's in car replay showing Piastri moving across, I'm sure.

Just checked and yeah they did and it does look like Oscar clipped Russel's wing.

Yes, they showed Piastri moving across the front of Russell. They never showed the contact with Verstappen's car, which is where the wing damage was sustained.

 

[Black_White]

Yes, they showed Piastri moving across the front of Russell. They never showed the contact with Verstappen's car, which is where the wing damage was sustained.

The Piastri Russell collision you could clearly see movement of Piastri car when contact occurred.
It was a classic bump.

 

[Vader]

The Piastri Russell collision you could clearly see movement of Piastri car when contact occurred.
It was a classic bump.

Yes... but it wasn't where the damage was sustained.

Russell made contact with at least 3 things on the first lap - Piastri's car, the bollard, and Verstappen's car. It was the latter incident (not shown on TV) which resulted in the damage to his end plate.