Discussion 2025 Fantasy Pre-Season Planning Discussion

[happy_eagle]

By my calcs magic number is 9082. Could be wrong

Salary cap is up by 2 million this year

Rowan Marshall is $1.2 million
Sam Lalor is $340,000

That much has been confirmed already

 

[BloodBrother1]

Salary cap is up by 2 million this year

Rowan Marshall is $1.2 million
Sam Lalor is $340,000

That much has been confirmed already

Thanks mate...all updated. I am now just under 470k over budget... back to the drawing board

 

[Demon in Hell]

Agreed, Magic number approx 10,280

 

[ShadowCat]

First rough draft (figures may be slightly off based on discounts given/decimal points on averages rounded down or up)


Fantasy mock using magic number of 10,280:

DEF: Holmes (966), Sicily (894), D. Rioli (863) Short (822), Cumming (575) Coleman (524)

4.643 MIL


MID: T. Green (1.028), LDU (986), Taranto (975), Petracca (925), W. Day (760), J. Smith (334), S. Draper (331), L. Ashcroft (328)

5.660 MIL


RUC: Xerri (1177), TDK (904)

2.081 MIL


FWD: Macrae (729), Phillipou (647), B. Smith (596), Daniel (514), Lalor (340), E. Hewett (260)

3.086 MIL


+ 2.4 MIL for bench (8 x 300K)


17.872 MIL (70K over budget - 1 basement bench rook)

 

[bettingonbetts]

First rough draft (figures may be slightly off based on discounts given/decimal points on averages rounded down or up)


Fantasy mock using magic number of 10,280:

DEF: Holmes (966), Sicily (894), D. Rioli (863) Short (822), Cumming (575) Coleman (524)

4.643 MIL


MID: T. Green (1.028), LDU (986), Taranto (975), Petracca (925), W. Day (760), J. Smith (334), S. Draper (331), L. Ashcroft (328)

5.660 MIL


RUC: Xerri (1177), TDK (904)

2.081 MIL


FWD: Macrae (729), Phillipou (647), B. Smith (596), Daniel (514), Lalor (340), E. Hewett (260)

3.086 MIL


+ 2.4 MIL for bench (8 x 300K)


17.872 MIL (70K over budget - 1 basement bench rook)

Cumming mid only unfortunately

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'll tell you who I won't be touching this year. That bum Tom Green.

Yes he has a 7 in his average which gives him a slight discount but I think he's established pretty clearly he is not a 110+ guy.

Don't know what everyone sees in him.

 

[Barrybran]

I'll tell you who I won't be touching this year. That bum Tom Green.

Yes he has a 7 in his average which gives him a slight discount but I think he's established pretty clearly he is not a 110+ guy.

Don't know what everyone sees in him.

Without numbers in front of me, he seems to be a pretty good starting pick but not a season keeper? You could do worse than starting Green and trading him out at his bye (where have I heard this before?).

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Without numbers in front of me, he seems to be a pretty good starting pick but not a season keeper? You could do worse than starting Green and trading him out at his bye (where have I heard this before?).

Priced at 99, averaged 104 if you exclude the injured 7 he had. 8 scores under 95 (not including the 7), being 88, 72, 83, 91, 77, 88, 84 and 94. 7 scores above 120 but only one big score over 130, being 145 against North in Round 1.

With his history of generic 85-105 scores, his early bye and his absence of marks (only averaging about 3 per game) I just can't see him ever being a justifiable selection.

 

[Barrybran]

Priced at 99, averaged 104 if you exclude the injured 7 he had. 8 scores under 95 (not including the 7), being 88, 72, 83, 91, 77, 88, 84 and 94. 7 scores above 120 but only one big score over 130, being 145 against North in Round 1.

With his history of generic 85-105 scores, his early bye and his absence of marks (only averaging about 3 per game) I just can't see him ever being a justifiable selection.

I'll have to look at his front 12 / back 12 splits but from memory there was a difference across multiple years

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'll have to look at his front 12 / back 12 splits but from memory there was a difference across multiple years

Not much of a difference last year. Averaged 104 up until his Bye in Round 12 last year (which included his 145 in Round 2, again this is excluding the 7 from calculations - so still was quite poor even at the start of the season with 88, 72, 98, 83 and 91 all coming before the bye), then 104 after his bye.

 

[danster168]

I wished the mid priced players were reduced significantly in price so that people would have different teams. Everyone is going to have the same rookies, same value guys like Bailey Smith etc. with the only difference being the odd promo. I also think goals should be worth more points to make key forwards relevant again.

 

[ShadowCat]

Not much of a difference last year. Averaged 104 up until his Bye in Round 12 last year (which included his 145 in Round 2, again this is excluding the 7 from calculations - so still was quite poor even at the start of the season with 88, 72, 98, 83 and 91 all coming before the bye), then 104 after his bye.

The highest averaging mid only averaged 110 (Treloar). Scoring is trending downwards, so 104 is decent if it carries a discount, and he's semi reliable.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The highest averaging mid only averaged 110 (Treloar). Scoring is trending downwards, so 104 is decent if it carries a discount, and he's semi reliable.

Sure, you go for it. Would love people to go for Green, he's great!

Scores coming down makes him even a worse selection. Why pay 99 priced at for 104 output when you can pay 80 priced at or lower for 100 output

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I wished the mid priced players were reduced significantly in price so that people would have different teams. Everyone is going to have the same rookies, same value guys like Bailey Smith etc. with the only difference being the odd promo. I also think goals should be worth more points to make key forwards relevant again.

I think we've legitimately had this discussion every single season for the past 3 years. You say this every time.

The more discounted the mid priced guys are the more uniform teams would be. Take a look when Supercoach priced Coniglio at like 300,000 two years ago and he was about 600k in Fantasy. Every single Supercoach side had him, whereas it was only about 20% who took the punt in Fantasy.

If mid priced guys were cheaper teams would be identical.

I slightly agree with the goals point, but with the number of goals kicked from the midfield I don't think it would actually make the key forwards any more viable. I'd like to see extra points for contested marks though.

 

[happy_eagle]

I wished the mid priced players were reduced significantly in price so that people would have different teams. Everyone is going to have the same rookies, same value guys like Bailey Smith etc. with the only difference being the odd promo. I also think goals should be worth more points to make key forwards relevant again.

If you want unique teams, play draft.

 

[Dan12]

Green has been a 110 player for the past two years, except for a six week patch where he scored his 7 then was playing hurt after that. Just 23yo with a full time mid role. He's an obvious pick and a captain option.

 

[happy_eagle]

Green has been a 110 player for the past two years, except for a six week patch where he scored his 7 then was playing hurt after that. Just 23yo with a full time mid role. He's an obvious pick and a captain option.

I carried two early bye premiums last year (Daicos and T.Green) and ultimately I'd say it wasn't worth it as these guys were more affordable later on, and neither were standouts in their position like I had thought they would be either.

I think this year I will try and avoid early bye premiums.

 

[danster168]

If you want unique teams, play draft.

I don't have 10-16 friends that would take it seriously so it'd just be a circus of incomplete lineups etc.

 

[Shaunn]

I carried two early bye premiums last year (Daicos and T.Green) and ultimately I'd say it wasn't worth it as these guys were more affordable later on, and neither were standouts in their position like I had thought they would be either.

I think this year I will try and avoid early bye premiums.

I did that and missed Heeney and Whitfield though, both with early byes. Doesn't always work.

Although i think Whitfield wasn't that great early on if i recall.

 

[Keystone agony]

I did that and missed Heeney and Whitfield though, both with early byes. Doesn't always work.

Although i think Whitfield wasn't that great early on if i recall.

I think comparing Heeney 80 Forward (In a very poor position last year) to Whitfield 95 Def, Naicos 110~ and Green 105~ Mid/Defs is a bit different. Heeney was also round 5 last year, which meant their had been 5-6 price rises (incl Round Zero), so it was a little further on making it more ok (Thats before we discuss him avg like 115 after 5 weeks)

I just dont see the point in starting any of those really early bye premium guys. I wouldve started Heeney last year

Your replacing their bye in the first 4 rounds probably with a 50-60 from the bench and also making yourself vulnerable if you have a hit of injuries that week which can force you to trade in a certain direction you may not want to go

But yes the game has become who can trade best as starting sides are very similar outside of maybe a handful of different premiums. All the rooks and value guys are picked the same

With the strength of the midfield this year i will consider bypassing starting Tom Green, Ashcroft, Naicos types that will be very popular and look to grab after their bye

Think i like enough of Brayshaw, Walsh, Butters, Rozee, Cerra, LDU ect types

edit: Although if there are 3 trades each bye round then you may be able to just sideways trade them in/out

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Calvin mentioned this year's Magic Number in a rudimentary way the other day: ie. Cripps averaged 100 and his price is $1,026,000. Therefore: 10260.

It's never as basic as that calculation due to the real price then being rounded to the nearest $1000. We'll never know the number for sure but we can get closer to it.

I've got on this sheet detailed averages of the 25 highest priced players. We now know their price so I used that info to get a consensus of what is the likely real Magic Number.

The far column has the possible Magic Number for each player. The average of all them (highlighted bottom right) shows the Magic Number is more likely just over 10261.

Nothing of note, but since I did the exercise I thought I would share. I do this for every season and the difference has been greater at other times. I can now use that number to accurately price the other 750 players.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Early byes to throw up a quandry again. Will obviously be a bit different to last season.

Here is the list of total points up from Rd 1 to Rd 7 with those who had a bye highlighted. Would wearing the bye and taking a rookie score have been the right tactic?


a

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I think comparing Heeney 80 Forward (In a very poor position last year) to Whitfield 95 Def, Naicos 110~ and Green 105~ Mid/Defs is a bit different. Heeney was also round 5 last year, which meant their had been 5-6 price rises (incl Round Zero), so it was a little further on making it more ok (Thats before we discuss him avg like 115 after 5 weeks)

I just dont see the point in starting any of those really early bye premium guys. I wouldve started Heeney last year

Your replacing their bye in the first 4 rounds probably with a 50-60 from the bench and also making yourself vulnerable if you have a hit of injuries that week which can force you to trade in a certain direction you may not want to go

But yes the game has become who can trade best as starting sides are very similar outside of maybe a handful of different premiums. All the rooks and value guys are picked the same

With the strength of the midfield this year i will consider bypassing starting Tom Green, Ashcroft, Naicos types that will be very popular and look to grab after their bye

Think i like enough of Brayshaw, Walsh, Butters, Rozee, Cerra, LDU ect types

edit: Although if there are 3 trades each bye round then you may be able to just sideways trade them in/out

No 3 trades during the early Byes.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Calvin mentioned this year's Magic Number in a rudimentary way the other day: ie. Cripps averaged 100 and his price is $1,026,000. Therefore: 10260.

It's never as basic as that calculation due to the real price then being rounded to the nearest $1000. We'll never know the number for sure but we can get closer to it.

I've got on this sheet detailed averages of the 25 highest priced players. We now know their price so I used that info to get a consensus of what is the likely real Magic Number.

The far column has the possible Magic Number for each player. The average of all them (highlighted bottom right) shows the Magic Number is more likely just over 10261.

Nothing of note, but since I did the exercise I thought I would share. I do this for every season and the difference has been greater at other times. I can now use that number to accurately price the other 750 players.


View attachment 2185480

The magic number is 10280

 

[Shaunn]

Calvin mentioned this year's Magic Number in a rudimentary way the other day: ie. Cripps averaged 100 and his price is $1,026,000. Therefore: 10260.

It's never as basic as that calculation due to the real price then being rounded to the nearest $1000. We'll never know the number for sure but we can get closer to it.

I've got on this sheet detailed averages of the 25 highest priced players. We now know their price so I used that info to get a consensus of what is the likely real Magic Number.

The far column has the possible Magic Number for each player. The average of all them (highlighted bottom right) shows the Magic Number is more likely just over 10261.

Nothing of note, but since I did the exercise I thought I would share. I do this for every season and the difference has been greater at other times. I can now use that number to accurately price the other 750 players.


View attachment 2185480

Bolter already has the prices for all players fyi .