Discussion 2025 Fantasy Pre-Season Planning Discussion

[pupstar]

It's just Fantasy bro

Bite your tongue Barrybran Ha Ha just fantasy.

 

[Zevon]

Sorry Zevon

What on Earth for

Uh I mean that’s ok it sounds like you’ve learnt your lesson Baz now don’t do it again

 

[Duke of Windso]

Mine at the moment. Not sure if I'll end up going with Darcy, but my reasoning was Darcy+Farrell/McKercher/some other defender in that range>Marshall/Xerri+ the 3rd best scorer of the rookie defenders I go with.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

New year, new version! Pretty content with the current lineup but constant tinkering will mean it end up absolutely nothing like this I’m sure.

 

[Phar Ace]

New year, new version! Pretty content with the current lineup but constant tinkering will mean it end up absolutely nothing like this I’m sure.

View attachment 2197872

Think all our teams are yet to suffer the ol death by a 1000 swaps - you look well placed through the early byes so maybe 999 swaps

 

[Duke of Windso]

Something to consider regarding mid-season byes: 7 of the 8 teams with early byes are on the round 14 and round 16 byes. So if you're avoiding early bye players your starting team will be skewed towards the round 12, 13, and 15 byes (almost definitely worth it, but still to be considered). Richmond arguably has an even better bye than St. Kilda and Fremantle, because if you take out the teams with early byes, they're the only round 14 bye team.

 

[bettingonbetts]

Thoughts on D Rioli?
I think he goes bananas, will be interesting to watch OR.
If he scores 100+ watch his 4% ownership sky rocket

 

[DenieD]

Thoughts on D Rioli?
I think he goes bananas, will be interesting to watch OR.
If he scores 100+ watch his 4% ownership sky rocket

Bye in round 2. Would need to go massive (like 130+) for me to consider starting him. Would rather not have premos (or underpriced premos) on any of those early byes.

Any injuries or late outs for any of your other premos and suddenly you're having to field 7+ rookies. That makes me nervous (even if its best 18).

 

[happy_eagle]

Bye in round 2. Would need to go massive (like 130+) for me to consider starting him. Would rather not have premos (or underpriced premos) on any of those early byes.

Any injuries or late outs for any of your other premos and suddenly you're having to field 7+ rookies. That makes me nervous (even if its best 18).

If he has the role that Flanders had last year, and he's the only one doing it then he's worth a shot for sure.

But as you mentioned, you can probably wait till after his bye and jump on if he seems like he's a must have by then.

 

[Thelethal97]

Thoughts on D Rioli?
I think he goes bananas, will be interesting to watch OR.
If he scores 100+ watch his 4% ownership sky rocket

Currently injured fyi (MCL). Think he was supposed to have surgery but haven't seen an update

 

[bettingonbetts]

Currently injured fyi (MCL). Think he was supposed to have surgery but haven't seen an update

Did see that, couldn’t find an update anywhere

 

[bettingonbetts]

Bye in round 2. Would need to go massive (like 130+) for me to consider starting him. Would rather not have premos (or underpriced premos) on any of those early byes.

Any injuries or late outs for any of your other premos and suddenly you're having to field 7+ rookies. That makes me nervous (even if its best 18).

If he has the role that Flanders had last year, and he's the only one doing it then he's worth a shot for sure.

But as you mentioned, you can probably wait till after his bye and jump on if he seems like he's a must have by then.

I was hesitant at starting early bye players last year but felt like I learnt you don’t need to be that hesitant.
Let’s say you have Tom Green and Rioli on that bye, it gives you two extra field on field (looking at a normal structure and including Hewitt that’s 7. 22 on field means you’ll have 15 premium/mid prices and then 3 rookie scores and I’m sure players like Draper, Travaglia and Jagga will push out reasonable scores.
I don’t think it looks that bad on paper.
Everyone still looking at avoiding early byes as much as they can???

I also saw a really relevant post by I believe Duke of Windsor about early byes have later byes. I’m really keen on Walsh this year but that’s adding another player to round 12 (hardest round to play I think) and so many other relevant teams on that round. Is it better going a player who has round 14/15 bye? Like a Green or Merrett (both have early byes I’m aware) or are we not thinking that much into it?
My team at the moment round 12 would have 5 players: Dale, Walsh, Rozee, DeKoning, Daniel (not including rookies)

 

[Phar Ace]

I was hesitant at starting early bye players last year but felt like I learnt you don’t need to be that hesitant.
Let’s say you have Tom Green and Rioli on that bye, it gives you two extra field on field (looking at a normal structure and including Hewitt that’s 7. 22 on field means you’ll have 15 premium/mid prices and then 3 rookie scores and I’m sure players like Draper, Travaglia and Jagga will push out reasonable scores.
I don’t think it looks that bad on paper.
Everyone still looking at avoiding early byes as much as they can???

I also saw a really relevant post by I believe Duke of Windsor about early byes have later byes. I’m really keen on Walsh this year but that’s adding another player to round 12 (hardest round to play I think) and so many other relevant teams on that round. Is it better going a player who has round 14/15 bye? Like a Green or Merrett (both have early byes I’m aware) or are we not thinking that much into it?
My team at the moment round 12 would have 5 players: Dale, Walsh, Rozee, DeKoning, Daniel (not including rookies)

I think early Bye players are still worth a look - but maybe just not be quite as paranoid as last season when I had perhaps just one. After the early Byes it seemed like playing catch up all season (or maybe I'm just a shit Fantasy coach - hand away from the keyboard tigs2010 )

The week to watch any sort of imbalance is Round 3. There are four teams on that Bye, after two teams the week before (with only the usual two trades). You wouldn't want to be using both those trades to fix up Round 3 is all I'm saying - better to be bringing one or more of them in for Round 4 is my early plan. There is always an exception in this game though.......

 

[Phar Ace]

Did see that, couldn’t find an update anywhere

He was a wait and see how treatment responded - I'm guessing we'll know more as players get back

 

[Thelethal97]

I was hesitant at starting early bye players last year but felt like I learnt you don’t need to be that hesitant.
Let’s say you have Tom Green and Rioli on that bye, it gives you two extra field on field (looking at a normal structure and including Hewitt that’s 7. 22 on field means you’ll have 15 premium/mid prices and then 3 rookie scores and I’m sure players like Draper, Travaglia and Jagga will push out reasonable scores.
I don’t think it looks that bad on paper.
Everyone still looking at avoiding early byes as much as they can???

I also saw a really relevant post by I believe Duke of Windsor about early byes have later byes. I’m really keen on Walsh this year but that’s adding another player to round 12 (hardest round to play I think) and so many other relevant teams on that round. Is it better going a player who has round 14/15 bye? Like a Green or Merrett (both have early byes I’m aware) or are we not thinking that much into it?
My team at the moment round 12 would have 5 players: Dale, Walsh, Rozee, DeKoning, Daniel (not including rookies)

I think there's an alternative way to look at it that's not being spoken about much.

If we look at the byes, it finishes R4. If you were to have a Tom Green (99.9avg), think about what score he may be replaced with for his bye. Let's say a 70 (probably too much). So if you think Green can go 110 at the start, do this:
110 x 3 + 70 (rookie score) = 400 (avg of 100)

So really Tom Green going 110 for the first few rounds of the season is no different to say a Rozee (97.1 avg), going at 97 himself for the first four rounds. That's why premos with in-built value and don't have the bye feels a much better pick.

Alternatively, you can look at it this way:

Instead of looking at what they're priced at, look at what they are priced at factoring in a rough rookie score that replaces them (70 again ie)

So Green is priced at 99.9 but is actually truly priced at 110 to start due to the loss of a game and a replacement rook score (rookie score = 70), therefore needs 330pts from the other 3 games = 110 per game to reach the 400pts that he is priced at for the first 4 rounds

When looking at the early round byes, focus on just the first four rounds and not the whole season, as you can pick up a Green ie AFTER his bye for not much more

 

[Phar Ace]

I think there's an alternative way to look at it that's not being spoken about much.

If we look at the byes, it finishes R4. If you were to have a Tom Green (99.9avg), think about what score he may be replaced with for his bye. Let's say a 70 (probably too much). So if you think Green can go 110 at the start, do this:
110 x 3 + 70 (rookie score) = 400 (avg of 100)

So really Tom Green going 110 for the first few rounds of the season is no different to say a Rozee (97.1 avg), going at 97 himself for the first four rounds. That's why premos with in-built value and don't have the bye feels a much better pick.

Alternatively, you can look at it this way:

Instead of looking at what they're priced at, look at what they are priced at factoring in a rough rookie score that replaces them (70 again ie)

So Green is priced at 99.9 but is actually truly priced at 110 to start due to the loss of a game and a replacement rook score (rookie score = 70), therefore needs 330pts from the other 3 games = 110 per game to reach the 400pts that he is priced at for the first 4 rounds

When looking at the early round byes, focus on just the first four rounds and not the whole season, as you can pick up a Green ie AFTER his bye for not much more

The other hard-to-quantify cost is the opportunity cost of already having Tom Green (your example) and not needing to trade him in, and so using that trade (if you are certain to want him as per your example infers) to create a further opportunity of cash cowing or a trade that creates more cash and/or points than might otherwise not have been made. Same is true if it helps you avoid a loss that you might otherwise have incurred - easy game this!

All things are subject to change, but knowing the keepers you want and/or expect, helps solidify this construct in your mind.

I'm yet to be entirely unconvinced that the ' Zevon technique' of using pins and darts is just as effective

 

[Nunez]

If Wardlaws fitness has improved, he will take a big jump this year imo. One to watch for sure.

 

[Nunez]

Mckercher is continue his scoring in 2025?

 

[Barrybran]

If Wardlaws fitness has improved, he will take a big jump this year imo. One to watch for sure.

Mckercher is continue his scoring in 2025?

Who are Wardlaw and McKercher taking points from? I don't disagree with you but someone is going to have to make way for these kids to come through. Powell and Fisher the obvious answers but North also have to squeeze in Parker, Daniel, O'Sullivan and find more time for Duursma, etc.

 

[Nunez]

Who are Wardlaw and McKercher taking points from? I don't disagree with you but someone is going to have to make way for these kids to come through. Powell and Fisher the obvious answers but North also have to squeeze in Parker, Daniel, O'Sullivan and find more time for Duursma, etc.

Risky business taking any north player outside of Sheezel, really. Just feel Wardlaw is one good preseason away from being their #1 midfielder and his ability to clear and tackle should translate to strong scores when he's fit enough to do it consistently.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Who are Wardlaw and McKercher taking points from? I don't disagree with you but someone is going to have to make way for these kids to come through. Powell and Fisher the obvious answers but North also have to squeeze in Parker, Daniel, O'Sullivan and find more time for Duursma, etc.

Sheezel ?

 

[Nunez]

Sheezel ?

I think Sheezel is in a league of his own. Is a lock imo.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think Sheezel is in a league of his own. Is a lock imo.

I'm not taking Sheezel ....overpriced, and adds way too many players to my R12 Bye Round ....and will teams start tagging ?

I've already got Xerri, Rozee, JHF, Caleb Daniel .....and possibly Walsh and/or Dale

 

[DenieD]

I think Sheezel will have a very tough season in 2025.

North should be more competitive this season with the players they brought in and the improvement of their younger players. Not necessarily more wins, but their games will be much closer and other teams will be worrying more about North's best player (which is obviously Sheezel).

I bet this will be the season of Sheezel trying to understand how to shrug off a tag. If he plays pure mid with a bit of forward time, he will be Norths most damaging player by far. Other teams will do everything they can to shut him down.

I still think he will probably be a top 6 defender, just not value at all. And will have some very poor scores this season when he gets a lot of attention.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think Sheezel will have a very tough season in 2025.

North should be more competitive this season with the players they brought in and the improvement of their younger players. Not necessarily more wins, but their games will be much closer and other teams will be worrying more about North's best player (which is obviously Sheezel).

I bet this will be the season of Sheezel trying to understand how to shrug off a tag. If he plays pure mid with a bit of forward time, he will be Norths most damaging player by far. Other teams will do everything they can to shut him down.

I still think he will probably be a top 6 defender, just not value at all. And will have some very poor scores this season when he gets a lot of attention.