2025 Ladder Predictions

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The Feeder Club said:
You might be right. The way the AFL is going, you'll soon get bonus premiership points for the number of views a team generates on tik tok.
But more likely you're wrong, and it will only take a couple of bad losses for the finger pointing within the team to start and this sort of shit to be just sort of shit
Click to expand...
Naah there are no bonus premiership points but certainly is an increase to the bottom line with ppl showing up to games and buying merchandise. It's OK though Freo don't need all that. Footballs a job and u must not enjoy what ure doing or show any emotion while doing it. It's interesting u call it shit perhaps ure just not accustomed to enjoying yourself when freo play and who can blame u
 
For Christ sake, shut up. People can have different opinions about your own team and you can keep scrolling. I think Essendon will finish above the bottom four where most have us but I’m not stinking this thread up trying to argue it. It’s someone’s opinion and nearly all of them will be wrong come the end of next year as it’s always way too hard to predict.
 
I haven't stopped anyone from having an opinion. But fair enough I will make like a shepherd.
 

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Seattle Mariners said:
The bias on this thread is laughable.

Saw a Freo poster tip Freo to finish second. Freo are projected to finish 9th according to the bookies.

Saw a St Kilda poster tip St Kilda to finish 5th. St Kilda are projected to come 13th according to the bookies.

Let’s get serious for a second here and show some objectivity when doing your predictions.

For the record I had Melbourne finishing 13th next year.
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If I went and put a billion dollars on West Coast to win the flag they'd be the bookies favorites to win the flag.
Do you get that bookies aren't making predictions, they're managing risk from bets already taken from mug punters?
 
Saints43 said:
If I went and put a billion dollars on West Coast to win the flag they'd be the bookies favorites to win the flag.
Do you get that bookies aren't making predictions, they're managing risk from bets already taken from mug punters?
Click to expand...
What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...
 
Fadge said:
What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...
Click to expand...
People are sheep, you only have to look at the world's various stock markets to know that.

The betting reflects the current sentiment, which can and will change.
 
Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide
 

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TheWalyalupFan said:
Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide
Click to expand...
Out of interest - reason behind Crows 18th?
 
TheWalyalupFan said:
Well it's that time of year again where more predictions are shared for the upcoming AFL Year ahead. So let's take it all away with my (Updated) predictions:

1. Greater Western Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Hawthorn
4. Collingwood
5. Sydney
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
__________________________________

9. Port Adelaide
10. Geelong
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Richmond
16. North Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. Adelaide
Click to expand...
Tigs at 15? Ya dreamin'
 
bato said:
Out of interest - reason behind Crows 18th?
Click to expand...
Probably felt like it was Cumming... & Peatling. ;)

We won't finish 18th as would sack Nicks midseason & bring in someone else who would win more than Richmond.
 
Fadge said:
What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...
Click to expand...
Betting odds current https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2025-8577634
this is your first and purposeful mis-quoting of the current 'opinions' of an agent and its customers who wish to play guessing games

Guessing games arent probabilities - they are merely aggregated 'opnions'... different to your 'opinion' which is not only biased but also different to the aggregate of opnions as expressed in the current betting odds.

So NO Brisbane or any other Club is NOT more likely to do ANYTHING if you are referencing probability - because probability has NOTHING to do with 'opnion' or betting odds.

Betting agencies are merely 'market makers' - something I am familiar with over 3 decades of practise in markets FAR more compelx than 'opnions' about football rankings...

'Actual' probabilities is a funny and strange red herring you use because of ignorance of basic startistical theory as well ...

people can come up with all sorts of multi factor equations using all sorts of arithmetic gymanstics to try and 'argue' a probability - but none of these attemtps woudl be adressing 'actual' probability - becaue 'actual' probability is (effectively) indeterminable for rational thinkers...

nto so much for irrational or naive thinkers ( like yourself)

SO NO a rational person cant make 'plenty' by beting on non -existant 'actual' probability either.

You seem to not understand the business of market making and seem to conflate opnion with probability - every time you reference odds as being equivalent to probability. AFL is not a coin toss situation.

Instead I suggest that you just say - 'my opniuon' is that this team will beat these teams. Dont try and add gravitas to yoru 'opnion' referencing things you clerly dont understand- be proud of your 'opnion' and all its repetitive biases.
 
Fadge said:
What is the best way to determine the probability of each of the clubs winning the flag in 2025?

Are Brisbane not the most likely, slightly ahead of Hawthorn, who are slightly ahead of Collingwood and Sydney?

Because that's what the betting agencies indicate.

And if they're not right, you should be able to make plenty by betting based on the 'actual' probabilities, if betting agency odds are simply the result of 'risk management of mug punters'...
Click to expand...
Fudging facts again.Carlton and GWS are same level as both Collingwood and Sydney , yet you forgot them in your statement.
 
JustaBattler said:
Betting odds current https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/afl-premiership-winner-2025-8577634
this is your first and purposeful mis-quoting of the current 'opinions' of an agent and its customers who wish to play guessing games

Guessing games arent probabilities - they are merely aggregated 'opnions'... different to your 'opinion' which is not only biased but also different to the aggregate of opnions as expressed in the current betting odds.

So NO Brisbane or any other Club is NOT more likely to do ANYTHING if you are referencing probability - because probability has NOTHING to do with 'opnion' or betting odds.

Betting agencies are merely 'market makers' - something I am familiar with over 3 decades of practise in markets FAR more compelx than 'opnions' about football rankings...

'Actual' probabilities is a funny and strange red herring you use because of ignorance of basic startistical theory as well ...

people can come up with all sorts of multi factor equations using all sorts of arithmetic gymanstics to try and 'argue' a probability - but none of these attemtps woudl be adressing 'actual' probability - becaue 'actual' probability is (effectively) indeterminable for rational thinkers...

nto so much for irrational or naive thinkers ( like yourself)

SO NO a rational person cant make 'plenty' by beting on non -existant 'actual' probability either.

You seem to not understand the business of market making and seem to conflate opnion with probability - every time you reference odds as being equivalent to probability. AFL is not a coin toss situation.

Instead I suggest that you just say - 'my opniuon' is that this team will beat these teams. Dont try and add gravitas to yoru 'opnion' referencing things you clerly dont understand- be proud of your 'opnion' and all its repetitive biases.
Click to expand...
A lot of drivel without saying anything.

But are you saying that it is not more 'probable' for Brisbane to win the flag than any other team in the competition? For example, Richmond?

Opinions are based on data, and betting markets are based on these opinions.

Otherwise, how do YOU assess the relative 'probabilities' of each team winning the flag?
 

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