2025 - Predictions for our most important season in a long time

[the big lebowski]

I’ve stated before that I think 2025 is the most important year for our club since 2007.

Whereas in 2007 we required a jump from bottom 4 to top 4 to save us, 2025 only requires modest improvement to “well below average side” up from “statistically worst team ever assembled”

I fear for the club if we can’t make that ultra modest jump

That said, what are your predictions for 2025?

Wins: 7

B&F: LDU

Does LDU stay: Yes

All Aust: LDU, Xerri

Does FOS place in Rising Star: Yes 3rd

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Zuhaar, Curtis

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: back

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: No

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Kerch

Short summary of season: definite improvement in win/loss and %. Highlight is a 3 game winning run mid year vs Tigers, Pies and West Coast.

 

[The Talent Scout]

2025 AFL SEASON

WINS: 12

B&F: CHARLIE COMBEN

DOES LDU STAY: YES

ALL AUST: CHARLIE COMBEN, LDU, XERRI

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: 2ND PLACE

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: LARKEY, ZUHAAR, CURTIS

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: BACK

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: NO, NOT YET

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: WARLORD

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: BREAK OUT YEAR FOR THE "JOEYS", EXCITING/DYNAMIC PLAY HIGHLIGHTED BY A STUNNING 7 GAME WINNING STREAK STARTING IN ROUND 15 ENDING IN ROUND 22 BY THE GIANTS.
THE EXPERIENCE & THE KIDS TOOK THE COMPETITION BY STORM, WITH A PERCENTAGE OF 116.9 COMPARED TO LAST YEARS 63.5, NORTH NEARLY DOUBLED IT FROM LAST YEAR WITH THE MOST EXHILARATING PASSAGES OF PLAY NOT SEEN SINCE THE EARLY 90S, THE MESSAGE, "THE KANGAROOS ARE BACK"!

 

[Twangler]

2025 season

Wins: 8 (12th)

Premiership: GWS

Wooden spoon: Richmond

Brownlow: Bontempelli

B&F: Sheezel

Biggest improver: McKercher

Biggest disappointment: Simpkin

Does LDU stay: Yes

All Aust: Sheezel and McKercher (named wing)

Does FOS place in Rising Star: Yes 5th

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Curtis and Comben

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: both but more fwd

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: yes

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Sheezel

 

[Scottroo]

2025 AFL SEASON

WINS: 9

B&F: LDU

DOES LDU STAY: YES

ALL AUST: LDU and Sheezal

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Wins it

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: LARKEY, ZUHAAR, CHOM

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Forward

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Yes

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Sheezal

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Win 2 of our first three and look finals bound after round 9, but the boys run out of steam in the second half of the season

 

[Makeshift Park]

LDU, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Xerri, Parker, Kerch, and FOS emerge as one of the competition's premier midfield units.

Wins: 10
B&F: LDU, who stays because we've won 10 games
3 Leading goal kickers: Larks, Darling, Curtis
Chom plays swingman
Wardlaw, Sheezel and Kerch all play well so its a subjective call
Kerch, Curtis and Phillips biggest improvers
FOS plays most games (when he isn't injured) and is thereabouts in the rising star
Who cares about AAs

 

[Chadwiko]

WINS: 8

B&F: Harry Sheezel

DOES LDU STAY: No

ALL AUST: Sheezel

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Not in 2025. Plays fewer than 10 games, but remains eligible in 2026 and dominates.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Darling, Curtis

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back for 17 games. Forward for 7.

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Yes

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Sheezel, and it's not particularly close.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Promising signs, led by Sheezel who cements himself as a genuine top 3 player in the AFL. A bit of inconsistency amongst our younger brigade, both in terms of on-field performances, as well as selection, means we struggle a bit at times.

 

[Loose_Cannon]

Wins: 8

B&F: Sheezel

Does LDU stay: Yes (signs just before the bye)

All Aust (squad): LDU, Xerri, Sheezel, McKercher

Does FOS place in Rising Star: No, I don't think he will play enough first year out with the depth at HBF/Wing. I think the older guys will get first crack while he gets to grow a bit in the VFL

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Zuhaar, Darling

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: por qué no los dos (I like him back more but I'm not a coach)

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: Yes

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: McKercher will see more growth, but I think Sheezel will have a better overall year

Short summary of season: I thought we'd win 4-6 games last year, with a strecth target of 8, and the close losses to Collingwood, Melbourne, and West Coast were the difference between on target and missing IMO. The late fade-outs and the sheer panic that seemed to come over the side as a collective will be eliminated, in no small part due to the influence of the veterans recruited this year. Darling to take a late game-saving mark. I see Melbourne and Essendon having tough years, along with Richmond, and we should look to keep pace with the likes of West Coast and Adelaide. If we can jag a win or two from a top 8 side to go along with the natural growth you'd like to see in a young list, then that's an A+ result.

But at the end of the day, who knows what the hell happens? Any team can get bit by the injury bug (Carlton) or have a bad day against a bottom side (Sydney) and I think it's time for us to have some luck.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

2025 AFL SEASON

WINS: 7

B&F: LDU

DOES LDU STAY: YES. Top line players stay far more than they leave.

ALL AUST: NONE. Popularity contest as usual which is why our players are easily overlooked. Let's be honest, we all know this.

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: No. The media will fawn over the Lawlor and Jagga for starters because it is a popularity contest like the All Australian.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: LARKEY, CURTIS, ZURHAAR

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: BACK

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: No

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: KERCH. Sheezel will cop more attention.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Generally far more competitive on a regular basis with an important scalp or two along the way, setting us up to take another leap forward in 2026.

 

[Secret Arden]

Long time reader ... very, very rare contributor (for good reason as you'll see) ...

2025 AFL SEASON

WINS: 4-6, but with positive momentum in the last month or so

B&F: SHEEZEL

DOES LDU STAY: I hope so, but I am concerned (Question: what happens with Tier 1 Free Agency Draft Compensation if you don't have a First Round pick? What do they peg it to?)

ALL AUST: I suspect none; very rare for a team winning less than six games to have a representative unfortunately

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Top Two (I'm not sure he wins if he plays at HB all year collecting uncontested possies and kick-outs; the media and so-called pundits seemed to have latched on to that as a cheat code)

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: LARKEY, CURTIS, PARKER (he'll be playing forward >50% of the time I suspect)

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: BACK, subject to injuries

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Yes (I'll make a dumb call and say he starts to show some pluck playing behind the ball as an interceptor, a la Tom Stewart)

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: In terms of contribution to team outcomes, Sheezel. But I have no doubt the other two will jump drastically too ... good problem to have!

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Clarkson continues with theme to simplify game-plan and slow down ball movement. We become harder to play against as the year goes on as (i) we gradually improve in the contest as young pups find their feet, (ii) skill level improves overall and we turn the ball over less, (iii) team is better organised behind the ball with continuity of playing stock and better pressure through middle of ground and (iv) we become far more effective in converting I50s to scores through better distribution and F50 pressure

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[CURVE]

Wins: 9-11

B&F: Harry Sheezel

Does LDU stay: Signs a 5 year deal to stay at Arden Street.

All Aust: Sheezel, Xerri

Does FOS place in Rising Star: No

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Curtis & Zurhaar. All over 35 goals.

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: Makes the AA squad as a CHB.

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: No, but shows enough improvement to suggest he will become a certainty by the end of 2026.

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Harry Sheezel finishes 2nd in the Brownlow

Short summary of season: An early upset against the Dogs or Dees in the open rounds propels North to a better than expected season missing the finals by only a few games.

 

[Only Forwards]

WINS: 8

DOES LDU STAY: No

If this occurs I expect multiple heads to roll.

8 wins would represent significant improvement from where we have been and then to lose him on top of that would be a gross failing by the FD.

I don't really care for more magic beans at the draft if we are losing premium players who are in the peak of their career.

It would be by far the biggest talent management blunder we have made.

 

[StazMob]

WINS: 6

B&F: Sheezel

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Xerri in final team, Sheezel & Larkey to make the 40 man squad

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Top 3

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey (50-60) Darling (30-40) & PC (25-35)

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back, but swings foward from time to time.

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: No, only because of how competitive his position will be this year.

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Removing Sheezel from this question, I think Kerch will.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Another up and down season at times, but the blowout 50+ loses are a thing of the past. Will be in games more often and for longer but will still fall short to the powerhouses. Roos will take a few nice scalps during the year but games we're expected to win, we win comfortably. The end of the year primes the Roos to be pushing for a spot in the 8 in 26'

 

[shintemaster]

DOES LDU STAY: I hope so, but I am concerned (Question: what happens with Tier 1 Free Agency Draft Compensation if you don't have a First Round pick? What do they peg it to?)

Goes to your "natural" finishing position. ie. if you finish last and have traded your R1 pick away you would receive Pick 2 as compensation in that scenario. In reality it won't matter, we can match any offer as he will be a RFA and we wouldn't not match if the offer wasn't better than Pick 2.

At the risk of going too early and well before much of the pre season:


Wins: 12+, it's time

B&F: Heart says LDU / X, head says Sheezel starts to provide more noticeable impact in wins with a stronger team around him.

Does LDU stay: Yes

All Aust: LDU, Xerri, Sheezel should finally be rewarded. McKercher will be good enough but pay the North tax and get a patronising pat on the head for consideration in a couple of years.

Does FOS place in Rising Star: No idea on this one as little idea who is still eligible, he's bigger than I thought, but I tend to think it rewards accumulators. I'd say ~5-6th

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Sheezel - I see real time forward if McKercher explodes, Powell steps up and Parker provides more middle relief, Curtis

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: Like many I think "both" but mostly injury dependent (to others). IMO Clarko still wants him forward and if opportunity suggests that he will make it happen.

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: Tough to say without seeing him get a run before the New Year. Honestly think he easily has the talent and was picking up ridiculous numbers in the VFL at times. I think yes, by the end of year.

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Tough, real tough. I think Sheezel is already underrated and hard to beat. Different roles and all that, I'm very comfortable with the view that McKercher will have the biggest improvement, not that he is coming from a low base either.

Short summary of season: Genuine, competitive football side again - albeit with development to come. I'm on the bullish side. Leaving aside all the trade talk: Parker is a massive plus, Daniel is underrated - in particular for what he offers to a team that lacks his strengths - and a back end of career Darling is still fundamentally a comprehensive change from a makeshift tall forward setup. I see a couple of repeat back to back wins in the first half of the season as getting the monkey off our back then anything possible after years in the wilderness.

 

[Wild Kangaroo]

Wins: 6.5

B&F: Sheezel

Does LDU stay: No ( Hope Im wrong)

All Aust: Sheezel, Xerri, Larkey

Does FOS place in Rising Star: wins it

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Darling, Curtis

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: Back ( and to stay there)

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: Yes

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Sheezel, just goes to even another level.

Short summary of season: Improvement, but still go back to old habits. Still get disrespected in the media.

 

[Ura]

2025 AFL SEASON

WINS: 10

B&F: LDU

DOES LDU STAY: YES

ALL AUST: Sheez, LDU

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: 4th

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: LARKEY, CURTIS, Zurhaar

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: BACK

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: by the start of 2026?

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Sheez

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: Kerch has massive season with move to wing/middle. Warlord goes top 5 BnF and instrumental in season success. Our game style moves back towards run and gun as we develop a better engine with 2 way running. Curtis has a sneaky chance for most improved as he pushes up the feild and leads back to goal

 

[Orange Peanut]

WINS: 9

B&F: Sheezel

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Sheezel, Larkey

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: not quite. (Ashcroft, Smith, Draper stand out a bit more)

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Darling, Curtis

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: yes. (But mostly back)

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: yes he is.

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Sheez

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: we suck less, and have some great games.

 

[northbergs]

Top 4.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[RossHenshaw]

Wins: 5

B&F: Sheezel

Does LDU stay: No

All Aust: Sheezel

Does FOS place in Rising Star: Top 3

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Bull , Curtis

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: both Fwd & Back - swing man .

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: No , needs to work harder on fitness & size .

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Sheezel but Kerch just behind him .

Short summary of season: Improvement, but still lack of fitness & skills will cost us games. Knowing / learning how to win still being the biggest hurdle.
VFL will make finals easily.

 

[itchyscratch]

WINS: 8

B&F: Sheezel

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Sheezel, Xerri

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Yes.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Curtis, Darling

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: No, but hope I’m wrong. Another year.

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: The Big Cheese.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON. Still frustrating but better than they’ve been for years. Will take some scalps and win some close games that they would have lost last year. Fewer last quarter meltdowns. Better fitness. Will weed out some players who aren’t up to the new standards.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Wins: 8.5

B&F: LDU

He stays.

AA: LDU & Harry

FOS : yes

GK: Larkey, Curtis & Duursma

Chom: Back

Harry by a whisker.

Kids pedal hard and the old hands of LP, Daniel and Logue steer the ship in the right direction

 

[zoomba23]

Wins: 6.5

B&F: Sheez

LDU: Goes

AA: Sheez

FOS: Yes

GK: Larkey, Curtis, Comben

Comben: See above point

Duurs: No

Sheez, but not by a ton

Think we need at bare minimum 8 wins for LDU to stay. Can't see that yet, but I'm saying 6.5 wins based on the parallel universe of shitness which we inhabit. If the club functioned as any other club does, we'd win around 10 with our list and a bit of injury fortune

 

[Shazeezal]

WINS: 8

B&F: McKercher

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Sheezel, Xerri, McKercher

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Yes.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Curtis, Darling

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back mostly with maybe 5-6 games pushed forward

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Yes. Expect him to play 3-5 magoos games across the year

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Kerch. I think we're about to see just how prolific and damaging he can be.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON. I'm expecting our results to be patchy still - especially as we are vulnerable to injuries. We will go on a couple of good runs though, winning a few games on end, but the start to the season is incredibly important for us and I do fear a big early loss. Hoping we finish the season with (Will) Dawson, Goater, Duursma, Hansen deserving a place in our best 22 (with Hail Mary hopes for Urquhart and George).

 

[zoomba23]

WINS: 8

B&F: McKercher

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Sheezel, Xerri, McKercher

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Yes.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Curtis, Darling

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back mostly with maybe 5-6 games pushed forward

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Yes. Expect him to play 3-5 magoos games across the year

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Kerch. I think we're about to see just how prolific and damaging he can be.

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON. I'm expecting our results to be patchy still - especially as we are vulnerable to injuries. We will go on a couple of good runs though, winning a few games on end, but the start to the season is incredibly important for us and I do fear a big early loss. Hoping we finish the season with (Will) Dawson, Goater, Duursma, Hansen deserving a place in our best 22 (with Hail Mary hopes for Urquhart and George).

Your summary is basically my realistic wishlist too. Very scared of R1. I don't think it'll be 96 points but if it's anything worse than a 30 point loss, our start will have been subpar

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Goes to your "natural" finishing position. ie. if you finish last and have traded your R1 pick away you would receive Pick 2 as compensation in that scenario. In reality it won't matter, we can match any offer as he will be a RFA and we wouldn't not match if the offer wasn't better than Pick 2.

At the risk of going too early and well before much of the pre season:


Wins: 12+, it's time

B&F: Heart says LDU / X, head says Sheezel starts to provide more noticeable impact in wins with a stronger team around him.

Does LDU stay: Yes

All Aust: LDU, Xerri, Sheezel should finally be rewarded. McKercher will be good enough but pay the North tax and get a patronising pat on the head for consideration in a couple of years.

Does FOS place in Rising Star: No idea on this one as little idea who is still eligible, he's bigger than I thought, but I tend to think it rewards accumulators. I'd say ~5-6th

Top 3 Leading goal kickers: Larkey, Sheezel - I see real time forward if McKercher explodes, Powell steps up and Parker provides more middle relief, Curtis

Does Chom play Fwd/Bck: Like many I think "both" but mostly injury dependent (to others). IMO Clarko still wants him forward and if opportunity suggests that he will make it happen.

Is Durz locked best 22 come seasons end: Tough to say without seeing him get a run before the New Year. Honestly think he easily has the talent and was picking up ridiculous numbers in the VFL at times. I think yes, by the end of year.

Who has the better year out of Sheez, Warlord, Kerch: Tough, real tough. I think Sheezel is already underrated and hard to beat. Different roles and all that, I'm very comfortable with the view that McKercher will have the biggest improvement, not that he is coming from a low base either.

Short summary of season: Genuine, competitive football side again - albeit with development to come. I'm on the bullish side. Leaving aside all the trade talk: Parker is a massive plus, Daniel is underrated - in particular for what he offers to a team that lacks his strengths - and a back end of career Darling is still fundamentally a comprehensive change from a makeshift tall forward setup. I see a couple of repeat back to back wins in the first half of the season as getting the monkey off our back then anything possible after years in the wilderness.

Agree with everything here except the wins total.

10+ is absolutely attainable.

 

[travelli]

WINS: 13, 7th spot

Captain: Parker

B&F: sheez

DOES LDU STAY: Yes

ALL AUST: Sheezel, Xerri, Caleb Daniel

DOES FOS PLACE IN RISING STAR: Yes, 1st.

TOP 3 LEADING GOAL KICKERS: Larkey, Zurhar, Darling

DOES CHOM PLAY FWD/BACK: Back

IS DURZ LOCKED BEST 22 COME SEASONS END: Has good games, but still fringe

WHO HAS THE BETTER YEAR OUT OF SHEEZ, WARLORD, KERCH: Sheez. Kerch kills it on the wing. Warlord serviceable, but questions asked

SHORT SUMMARY OF SEASON: the midfield clicks. Backline solid. Forward improves due to delivery. Club breakout year.