Player Watch #38 Noah Cumberland

[Vassp]

Cumby has 4 hard ball gets in his last 16 AFL matches at average 0.25 per game. Jaidyn Stenpheson averages almost 3 times as many as that across his last 3 seasons. Dusty in his last decet season(2023) was winning 2.9 per game.

As to that, Dusty won his offensive 1 v 1's at the highest rate ever recorded in the AFL. And convernted that into goals like a precision insrument. Cumby is nowhere near on that level, so has to have a greater defensive focus. Dusty robbed himself of defensive statistics by simply winning so may contests. In any event, he played the role the team wanted him to play defensively.

stats are so misleading.

 

[Andyy]

Cumby has 4 hard ball gets in his last 16 AFL matches at average 0.25 per game. Jaidyn Stenpheson averages almost 3 times as many as that across his last 3 seasons. Dusty in his last decet season(2023) was winning 2.9 per game.

As to that, Dusty won his offensive 1 v 1's at the highest rate ever recorded in the AFL. And convernted that into goals like a precision insrument. Cumby is nowhere near on that level, so has to have a greater defensive focus. Dusty robbed himself of defensive statistics by simply winning so may contests. In any event, he played the role the team wanted him to play defensively.

Have you compared Cumberland's 2022 stats in isolation? Because that was when I thought he was playing 'freely' and was coached into a lull thereafter.

Cheers

 

[Meteoric Rise]

stats are so misleading.

You think the hard ball get stats are misleading you into thinking Cumby got less hard ball gets than was the case in reality?

 

[Forensi Tiger]

Bloke is a natural goalkicker IMO who had his instinct coached out of him in favour of becoming a 'defensive forward'.

Anyone at the Brisbane game could see he has talent. How he avoided a Brownlow vote that day is utterly beyond me.

Just play him forward and let him do what he wants. Bolton was allowed to do the same.

Our forward line in '25 is going to be dogshit anyway. Lynch will get injured again 100%. Lefau out for half the year. No Bolton. No Dusty.

Leaves us with a forward line of guys like Kosi, Bauer, Gray, MRJ, Smith/Campbell etc. We will be comfortably worse than '24.

Yes he transforms our forward line from a shite one to a still shite one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Have you compared Cumberland's 2022 stats in isolation? Because that was when I thought he was playing 'freely' and was coached into a lull thereafter.

Cheers

Cumberlannd had a purple patch in 2022, we all know that. At least part of that was oppo teams didn't know how to beat and exploit him. But they do now.

The easiest way to reference a player's performance is by his player rating.

For the record his 2022 average player rating was 10.02 from his 9 matches. He had a very poor final. When he played, the team wet 4-1-4. When he did not play, the team went 9-4.

Players in recent years who played a roughly similar role and had something of a purple patch:

2016 Sam Lloyd 20 matches, player rating 9.07 - 35 goals @ 1.6 average
2017 Jacob Townsend 5 matches, player ratig 12.34 - 16 goals @ 3.2 average
2018 Josh Caddy 22 matches, player rating 13.29 - 46 goals @ 2.1 average

2022 N Cumberland 9 matches, player rating 10.02 - 19 goals @ 2.1 average

18/19yo Jack Higgins had a hot run in a similar role in 2018
18/19yo S Stack had a hot run in a similar role in 2019

Some of these guys had things go wrong but none of them lasted the next season as a permanent fixture in the role. And as we can see, Cumby was far from the best of them.

 

[Andyy]

Yes he transforms our forward line from a shite one to a still shite one.

Well I'm not convinced that Kosi or MRJ will be the answer. Lefau looks a good 3rd option.

Cumberland has at least proved he can hit the scoreboard and it will never be his fault that the forward line is so crap.

We are just bereft of forward options.

 

[Vassp]

You think the hard ball get stats are misleading you into thinking Cumby got less hard ball gets than was the case in reality?

for example, 2017 stats vs 2024 stats, you can look at them and come to some conclusion right, how many hard ball gets did our forwards get.
But do the stats tell you during 2017 season the ball was living in our forward line much, much more than it did during the 2024 season. Stats are always misleading in the wrong hands which is probably 95% of the time they are quoted as gospel.

 

[Karp3_dm]

Give the kid another year
he’s got the talent

 

[Meteoric Rise]

for example, 2017 stats vs 2024 stats, you can look at them and come to some conclusion right, how many hard ball gets did our forwards get.
But do the stats tell you during 2017 season the ball was living in our forward line much, much more than it did during the 2024 season. Stats are always misleading in the wrong hands which is probably 95% of the time they are quoted as gospel.

What has that got to do with the fact that Noah Cumberland got zero hard ball gets in 9 games in 2023?

*Hard ball get stats only available from 2021.

 

[THE_GUN]

We will get him to free agency the way some people want to wait with this bloke

piss him off now

 

[Vassp]

What has that got to do with the fact that Noah Cumberland got zero hard ball gets in 9 games in 2023?

*Hard ball get stats only available from 2021.

missed the point entirely, which proves my point . need to think deeper. this isnt just about cumbo, its an example.

 

[Danog]

I'm fine to back our football department as to who they feel we should keep.

We could get rid of all of Dow, Cumberland, Kmac, Coulthard, Colina, and pick up an extra kid in the rookie/PSD/SSP.

I'd also be fine keeping 1 of the first 3. Leave it to Blair.

 

[beema limapep]

Let's get around him lads.

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Let's get around him lads.

Noah continuing his journey