Analysis 4 Areas Richmond Should Find Improvement in 2025, All Being Equal...

[SplintWhisky]

The all being equal bit might be the issue, never seems to be the case for us in recent years.

1. Coaching stability. Along with Suns, the only 2 teams to enter 2024 with new coaches in place. Will be Yze's 2nd year and Newman, Ziebell also. It is tough to quantify and calculate this effect with any precision, but it should be worth a couple of extra wins on average.

2. The draw. We finished 13th last year and the way the draw is intended to work, our median double up opponent finishing position should be around 10.5th. In the event it is 2 positions tougher than that, 8.5th. Cats, who finished higher than us, and in the top 12 should have had a double up draw of 9.5th median finishing position. What they actually got was 11.8th The difference between our draw and theirs is like us both having the same draw bar one game where they play 17th and we play 3rd. So there is some significance to it. If that corrects in 2025 as it should, we get at least one extra very winnable game.

3. Umpiring. We remain 18th. We know what causes this and it is bias, there can be no doubt about it. We are a free kick a 1/4 below AFL average. The difference between our umpiring and average umpiring is a goal a game, based on the average free being from the centre circle therefore an inside 50 and about every 4th inside 50 yields a goal. A goal a game added to our score this season is another extra win.

4. Injuries. We have obviously had a massive outlier season in 2024. It is surely impossible to have a worse season and also very highly unlikely to be anywhere near as badly off. And it is not just a matter of 10 players got injured and were missing from our best team but the teams we fielded were stable from then on and able to improve as the season progressed, there has barely been any stability in the team all season. After 21 matches, 19 players have played between 5 and 14 matches. The corresponding figure for Geelong is 11 players. These are the players coming in and out of the team the most. For the blues that figure is 11 players. For Collingwood it is 16. Collingwood and Carlton are recognised as badly affected by injuries so it shows just how unstable we have been due to injury. We are seeing those 2 teams likely to finish finish at least 3-4 wins below what they were universally expected to achieve. So it is not difficult to extrapolate from that our injuries have cost us 5-6 wins minimum.

So we can see from using reasonable estimates for all these factors where our 10 extra expected wins have vanished. Hopefully we get a fair run next year and that alone will lead to big improvement.

Against that, we look likely to lose 3-4 of our best players from this season and replace them with kids from the draft. Hopefully we get a better run with these mainly uncontrollable factors though, and see some improvement that way.

1. Yze now has 1 year in the club and has seen what is up. Would hope that Newman at the very least was a pick by Yze. Will have to start to slowly turn over the Dimma Coaches and build what works for him

2. We will always have a more favourable draw no matter where we finish. The AFL will hedge that we could get better without injuries we could still be a bit more commercially viable.

3. Umps are looking much better in the recent weeks. No idea what happened but they are starting to not look as bad as previous years or the start of the year. The Saints game wasn't great but it wasn't as terrible.

4. The whole team will be looked at. I have never seen so many players with back injuries. These are young men in a professional sport environment, how the hell are their backs shit an broken? Would have to think that a new and improved team will come in. I hope we also look at all of it, the training, the facilities and the recovery process.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

A vital factor in us progressing is cleaning out dead wood that is going to cost our youngsters valuable games in 2025.

Please please please … we need to delist Macca and Pickett. If either of those guys are commanding a wing spot with players like Smith, Banks, Hugo or our new elite draftees playing VFL or as the sub I’ll fair dinkum spew up. Next year has to be wholly focussed on 2026-2030, which means getting as many games as possible into all of our youngsters in 2025.

We need to be one of the youngest lists in 2025, not mid-table or even at the higher end. There’s no time to waste.


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All Richmond dynasty Premiership players AFL games played in first 4 seasons after natural draft year:

88 B Ellis
86 D Martin
80 N Vlastuin
77 D Rioli
73 D Prestia
69 S Edwards
68 J Riewoldt
64 T Cotchin
60 T Lynch
58 J Caddy
56 J Short
55 J Graham
52 J Castagna
47 S Bolton
44 A Rance, N Balta
43 S Grigg
42 L Baker
38 Dan Butler
37 T Nankervis
29 K McIntosh, D Astbury
28 J Townsend
26 B Houli, D Grimes
8 I Soldo
0 K Lambert, N Broad, M Pickett

Other future flag players on our list in that period;

16 T Stengle
15 O Markov

31 flag players there. Only 13 had played 50 games within 4 years of their natural draft age. 11 had played less than 30 games. 3 had not even played 1 game. The media amount of games played by these 31 players by 4 years after their natural draft age was 44.

If I were to list all the spuds that got games ahead of most of these guys in their early seasons it would include players orders of magnitude worse than McIntosh and Pickett.

I don't see the sense in delisting players just because you think you will be tempted to pick them in your team. I think it should mostly work the other way around. Delist players if you think you won't be tempted to play them in the team.

The likes of McIntosh and Pickett will happily play VFL, set a great example at the club and help others on their journey to becoming AFL players - in the event that others go past them in the pecking order. They are not unsackable but with a load of retirements and trades likely, and some other delistings looking near certain, there could easily be another year for either or both of this pair.

 

[tigs2010]

The likes of McIntosh and Pickett will happily play VFL, set a great example at the club and help others on their journey to becoming AFL players

This will be the key. Which of the older guys are willing to play some VFL and have some premiership experience with the younger more project types.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This will be the key. Which of the older guys are willing to play some VFL and have some premiership experience with the younger more project types.

This pair have good form in this respect.

 

[Noidnadroj]

All Richmond dynasty Premiership players AFL games played in first 4 seasons after natural draft year:

88 B Ellis
86 D Martin
80 N Vlastuin
77 D Rioli
73 D Prestia
69 S Edwards
68 J Riewoldt
64 T Cotchin
60 T Lynch
58 J Caddy
56 J Short
55 J Graham
52 J Castagna
47 S Bolton
44 A Rance, N Balta
43 S Grigg
42 L Baker
38 Dan Butler
37 T Nankervis
29 K McIntosh, D Astbury
28 J Townsend
26 B Houli, D Grimes
8 I Soldo
0 K Lambert, N Broad, M Pickett

Other future flag players on our list in that period;

16 T Stengle
15 O Markov

31 flag players there. Only 13 had played 50 games within 4 years of their natural draft age. 11 had played less than 30 games. 3 had not even played 1 game. The media amount of games played by these 31 players by 4 years after their natural draft age was 44.

If I were to list all the spuds that got games ahead of most of these guys in their early seasons it would include players orders of magnitude worse than McIntosh and Pickett.

I don't see the sense in delisting players just because you think you will be tempted to pick them in your team. I think it should mostly work the other way around. Delist players if you think you won't be tempted to play them in the team.

The likes of McIntosh and Pickett will happily play VFL, set a great example at the club and help others on their journey to becoming AFL players - in the event that others go past them in the pecking order. They are not unsackable but with a load of retirements and trades likely, and some other delistings looking near certain, there could easily be another year for either or both of this pair.

Looking at Player Ratings, McIntosh has literally been the worst ‘midfielder’ in the entire competition to have played 20+ games across 2023-24.

So I’m not saying delist just because you ‘might’ pick him …. I’m saying delist because he is now a washed up and unfortunately terrible footballer… this wasn’t always the case, but on any measure … any …. it is now.

Of 121 mids to have played 10+ games in 2024:

• one of 29 to have zero coaches votes
• 120th in player ratings (ahead of only Gallagher who debuted this season)
• 114th for inside-50’s
• 114th for disposals per clanger (every player worse than him has a higher CP%)
• 114th disposals per turnover (see above)
• 116th for CP%
• 120th for ground ball gets
• stone motherless last for loose ball gets
• 110th for handball receives
• 115th for score involvements
• 115th for tackles
• 114th for pressure acts
• 117th for disposals
• 118th for SC points

He has played 20 games.

He literally does nothing well any more. Nothing. And it has been 2 x years now. And he’s 30yo+.

It beggars belief he plays every week. He’s selected on-field this week, on the back of player ratings games of -0.2 (yes, minus) v Saints and 1.2 v Roos (he was sub).

WTF are we doing?? Is Smith sub again? Or Ross? Or Coulthard?

It does my head in, it really does.


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[4tune8]

Looking at Player Ratings, McIntosh has literally been the worst ‘midfielder’ in the entire competition to have played 20+ games across 2023-24.

So I’m not saying delist just because you ‘might’ pick him …. I’m saying delist because he is now a washed up and unfortunately terrible footballer… this wasn’t always the case, but on any measure … any …. it is now.

Of 121 mids to have played 10+ games in 2024:

• one of 29 to have zero coaches votes
• 120th in player ratings (ahead of only Gallagher who debuted this season)
• 114th for inside-50’s
• 114th for disposals per clanger (every player worse than him has a higher CP%)
• 114th disposals per turnover (see above)
• 116th for CP%
• 120th for ground ball gets
• stone motherless last for loose ball gets
• 110th for handball receives
• 115th for score involvements
• 115th for tackles
• 114th for pressure acts
• 117th for disposals
• 118th for SC points

He has played 20 games.

He literally does nothing well any more. Nothing. And it has been 2 x years now. And he’s 30yo+.

It beggars belief he plays every week. He’s selected on-field this week, on the back of player ratings games of -0.2 (yes, minus) v Saints and 1.2 v Roos (he was sub).

WTF are we doing?? Is Smith sub again? Or Ross? Or Coulthard?

It does my head in, it really does.


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Isn't he a winger? Where does he rate in ratings for wingers?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Looking at Player Ratings, McIntosh has literally been the worst ‘midfielder’ in the entire competition to have played 20+ games across 2023-24.

So I’m not saying delist just because you ‘might’ pick him …. I’m saying delist because he is now a washed up and unfortunately terrible footballer… this wasn’t always the case, but on any measure … any …. it is now.

Of 121 mids to have played 10+ games in 2024:

• one of 29 to have zero coaches votes
• 120th in player ratings (ahead of only Gallagher who debuted this season)
• 114th for inside-50’s
• 114th for disposals per clanger (every player worse than him has a higher CP%)
• 114th disposals per turnover (see above)
• 116th for CP%
• 120th for ground ball gets
• stone motherless last for loose ball gets
• 110th for handball receives
• 115th for score involvements
• 115th for tackles
• 114th for pressure acts
• 117th for disposals
• 118th for SC points

He has played 20 games.

He literally does nothing well any more. Nothing. And it has been 2 x years now. And he’s 30yo+.

It beggars belief he plays every week. He’s selected on-field this week, on the back of player ratings games of -0.2 (yes, minus) v Saints and 1.2 v Roos (he was sub).

WTF are we doing?? Is Smith sub again? Or Ross? Or Coulthard?

It does my head in, it really does.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

He is a fat winger playing in a badly struggling midfield for most of the year. You don't get ratings points for being in a position that dissuades the opposition from taking a certain otherwise efficient route to goal. And that is what a lot of his role has always consisted of. Granted he hasn't exactly been in AA form in 2024, and in certain scenarios he might get the chop. But there are definitely scenarios you can keep a guy like this, and we might be in one of those scenarios.

 

[Noidnadroj]

He is a fat winger playing in a badly struggling midfield for most of the year. You don't get ratings points for being in a position that dissuades the opposition from taking a certain otherwise efficient route to goal. And that is what a lot of his role has always consisted of. Granted he hasn't exactly been in AA form in 2024, and in certain scenarios he might get the chop. But there are definitely scenarios you can keep a guy like this, and we might be in one of those scenarios.

Kaleb Smith is dropped and Macca plays… seriously, Yze will lose me quick smart if he makes decisions like this in 2025 !!


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[Meteoric Rise]

Kaleb Smith is dropped and Macca plays… seriously, Yze will lose me quick smart if he makes decisions like this in 2025 !!


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Kaleb Smith clearly has some things to work on before he is anywhere near an AFL standard player.

The club will be aiming to teach him how to play the game at that level. Part of that is giving the player a taste of AFL footy, and another part is sending him back the VFL level so he can hone his game at a level he can cope with.

In Smith's last 2 matches combined he has done 98% TOG.

He got 9 disposals, 2 contested possessions, 1 intercept, 1 goals, no assists, 2 score involvements, no tackles and 9 pressure acts. Across his 4 games so far(184% TOG total) he has 1 tackle and 10 pressure acts. That is not AFL football.

Playing him in the AFL team is not likely to help Smith.

McIntosh knows how to play AFL football. In his last 3 matches(192% TOG) he has:

31 disposals, 8 contested possessions, 1 goal, 1 assist, 7 score involvements, 4 tackles, 23 pressure acts.

---------

I don't think it is just a matter of playing youngsters and they get better. They need to get appropriate selection feedback when they are not doing what the team needs them to do. If McIntosh is keeping someone out of the team who is playing AFL level footy, your point is fair. Keeping the current version of Kaleb Smith out of the team is only doing the team, the young player and the club's future a favour.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Looking at Player Ratings, McIntosh has literally been the worst ‘midfielder’ in the entire competition to have played 20+ games across 2023-24.

So I’m not saying delist just because you ‘might’ pick him …. I’m saying delist because he is now a washed up and unfortunately terrible footballer… this wasn’t always the case, but on any measure … any …. it is now.

Of 121 mids to have played 10+ games in 2024:

• one of 29 to have zero coaches votes
• 120th in player ratings (ahead of only Gallagher who debuted this season)
• 114th for inside-50’s
• 114th for disposals per clanger (every player worse than him has a higher CP%)
• 114th disposals per turnover (see above)
• 116th for CP%
• 120th for ground ball gets
• stone motherless last for loose ball gets
• 110th for handball receives
• 115th for score involvements
• 115th for tackles
• 114th for pressure acts
• 117th for disposals
• 118th for SC points

He has played 20 games.

He literally does nothing well any more. Nothing. And it has been 2 x years now. And he’s 30yo+.

It beggars belief he plays every week. He’s selected on-field this week, on the back of player ratings games of -0.2 (yes, minus) v Saints and 1.2 v Roos (he was sub).

WTF are we doing?? Is Smith sub again? Or Ross? Or Coulthard?

It does my head in, it really does.


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“But he’s a solid role player”



He needed to go 3 years ago. All he offers is a big tank which is required for a winger. If we don’t have a single player that has a tank on our list to play that role we may as well fold because that’s disgraceful.

 

[Tigerish09]

Interesting post and I like the way you back up your argument with stats. BTW, what do you do for a living and what data sources do you use for your commentary?

 

[Azzleberry]

There will be a stage in 2-3 years where Yze needs to look at what we have bought into the club and whether his gameplan is suited to the players at his disposal. This was the critical juncture when Hardwick was coach.

We either draft the best available kids at each pick and adapt the game plan to suit their strengths (Dimma approach) or we need to be set on the game plan and only bring in kids who align to that model (like hawthorn).

At the moment I'm no clearer to which way we will go but would be hoping we are putting a high priority on speed, decision making and skill for anyone bought into the club