Ashman OG
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Player Watch #40: Callum Coleman-Jones
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Would be the best deal we could get for him.
TigerPaul71
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Just watch second half again,
Defiantly can have all of CJ, Lynch and jack in our forward line
3 marking forwards
I think cj better on the ground than lynch
MJ, shai, Edwards, Dusty
our full healthy team
Look out
Pretty good forward line
Defiantly can have all of CJ, Lynch and jack in our forward line
3 marking forwards
I think cj better on the ground than lynch
MJ, shai, Edwards, Dusty
our full healthy team
Look out
Pretty good forward line
Who the f is Hollands dad? Ben Hollands? Oops you're right. I only remembered Ben Holland who was a good player
We simply cannot afford to lose him, I understand the debate that Lynch, Riewoldt and CCJ may make us a little top heavy but with a genuine lack of young talls at the club what are we going to do when Jack retires??
Ruckwork looked better. I've changed my mind again on chol after his last couple of weeks. Keep ccj.
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Jack can move to a half forward flank or forward pocket. He is one of the smartest players so he can adapt to another role easily
sante
Emu
Did about as much as Chol has been in all honesty. I’m saying that, his upside is a lot higher
Ashman OG
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Disagree hes been decent in all the games hes played besides the gc one where he got subbed out. Chols been non-existent all year besides the lions game.
Yeah Jack can do that, but it changes SFA to the fact that all 3 of them are too slow to apply genuine forward pressure and are fairly hopeless once the ball hits the ground. No matter what you change with these 3 offensively, defensively the problem will always remain and be bigger than any reward that all 3 playing alongside each other offensively might create
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CHol's sh*t games have him getting 6 touches and nil impact...
That was a relatively quiet game from CCj, but he still kicked 2 goals, and WASN'T outmarked when we needed him to make a contest
Just a bit of info regarding CCj in 2021
6 games - 10 Goals
Ben Brown - 7 games 11 goals $750k a year
Esava Ratugolea - 12 games 10 goals
Mason Cox - 7 games 8 goals $550k a year
6 games - 10 Goals
Ben Brown - 7 games 11 goals $750k a year
Esava Ratugolea - 12 games 10 goals
Mason Cox - 7 games 8 goals $550k a year
Obviously more to a player than just games and goals but they are still quite compelling stats. Hopefully he repays the faith and signs a new contract (unless we have lined up some deal where we he is part of something special coming back the other way).
There really isnt a 'team' thats been linked to him apart from GC which Tiger71 mentioned
Im really not too fussed anymore if he stays or leaves and really dont care if both Chol & CCj leave and we get some kids coming in like Vanrooyen/Amiss/Williams.
Tem is bigger than the individual and was excited with some of the kids like Dow / Ralphsmith / Stack / Mrj and think we could transition well to our next group and if CJ is not wanting to be apart of that then bring in the kids that will
Decent game yesterday, I'm on record as saying I'd really like to keep both young R/F's, interesting to see how many people who have 'written Chol off' were really happy with CCJ's game yesterday.
He had 4 hitouts, neither of his goals were from any act to write home about on his part, numerous of his disposals were wild turnovers in key parts of the ground and he didn't exactly look mobile at various stages.
Like I said, I was happy with his game and really hope we retain him, but can't help but point out that given the exact same game from Marbs, his critics would be harping on what he got wrong and going out of their way to minimise what he did right (including the fact we played the spoon side).
He had 4 hitouts, neither of his goals were from any act to write home about on his part, numerous of his disposals were wild turnovers in key parts of the ground and he didn't exactly look mobile at various stages.
Like I said, I was happy with his game and really hope we retain him, but can't help but point out that given the exact same game from Marbs, his critics would be harping on what he got wrong and going out of their way to minimise what he did right (including the fact we played the spoon side).
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You make a great point, but I'm not sure it makes the point you want it to make to be honest...
A good guide, with young developing players, might not be comparing them in their best performances, but what exactly do their worst performances look like side by side... Meaning, at their worst, this is the minimum output you will get from player X vs player Y. As it stands, Chols best game has been better than CCJ's, happy to admit that, but Chol is once a year, and his low performance games are putrid.
In CCJ's low performance games, he has still managed to hit the scoreboard, he might not have the total hit-outs as Chol but he's not having any less impact when in the ruck compared to Chol, and he's a marking target, which Chol refuses to be.
The best example, that won't be on the stat sheet was a contest on Centre wing late in the 3rd qtr I think, outnumbered 2v1, just makes an aerial contest and brings it to ground (went OOB for a stoppage). You could hear all the boys yell in congratulations... Chol all year has failed to make that a contest and is easily outmarked.
I agree yesterday wasn't great from CCJ, but it does still make the case his weaker games are far more of a contribution than Chol's
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We have to do everything we can to keep him..
I'm sure you didn't set out to provide a textbook example of the kind of confirmation bias I was referring to, but you did.
CCJ played as a 2nd ruck yesterday, he had 4 hitouts and zero clearances. If Marbs had given the same return his detractors would be howling that he's a useless ruckman not worthy of the title and couldn't even get close to breaking even against Campbell. Triple the vitriol if we'd lost.
If he'd got the exact same two goals CCJ did, his detractors would be falling over themselves to point out that one came from a free kick that had everything to do with a defender's error in giving the free away, while the other came in a half we completely dominated and came largely thanks to him being on the fortunate end of team play.
When the raw stats comparing the two don't back up your bias, you point to an isolated example, when anyone with the same bias towards Chol could find a couple of dozen 'CCJ couldn't/wouldn't have done that' examples from his past block of games. Highlighting that he is considerably more mobile, way better below his knees and in numerous games has won clearances at levels above our midfielders.
Both players have different - I would argue complimentary - strengths and weaknesses, it'd be nice if more people threw the confirmation bias in the bin where it belongs.
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My Bias is in the bin... I already said CCJ's game yesterday was poor, I'm not pretending to make it better than it was...I'm sure you didn't set out to provide a textbook example of the kind of confirmation bias I was referring to, but you did.
CCJ played as a 2nd ruck yesterday, he had 4 hitouts and zero clearances. If Marbs had given the same return his detractors would be howling that he's a useless ruckman not worthy of the title and couldn't even get close to breaking even against Campbell. Triple the vitriol if we'd lost.
If he'd got the exact same two goals CCJ did, his detractors would be falling over themselves to point out that one came from a free kick that had everything to do with a defender's error in giving the free away, while the other came in a half we completely dominated and came largely thanks to him being on the fortunate end of team play.
When the raw stats comparing the two don't back up your bias, you point to an isolated example, when anyone with the same bias towards Chol could find a couple of dozen 'CCJ couldn't/wouldn't have done that' examples from his past block of games. Highlighting that he is considerably more mobile, way better below his knees and in numerous games has won clearances at levels above our midfielders.
Both players have different - I would argue complimentary - strengths and weaknesses, it'd be nice if more people threw the confirmation bias in the bin where it belongs.
And the non stat based things are important... this is not Supercoach...
How many times has Marbs been outmarked when he's our bailout, a lot, he often doesn't even make a contest.
How many times has the Oppo ruckman drifted fwd to take a mark and then kick a goal against Marbs, regularly...
None of that is on Marbs's stats sheet, but it happens a lot...
I'm not silly enough to sit here and argue that CCJ is already better than Chol, and I've conceded Chol's best at the moment is better than CCJ's...
What I am saying is, Chol only produces his best 1 in every 20 games, and the rest are relatively poor... and I don't htink he will ever improve if he hasn't over the first 6 years...
What I am saying is, that CCJ's minimum output is at worst the same as Chol's, but his upside and consistency (IMO of Course) is on a better course than Chol's and if I am thinking future structure of our side 3 years from now... CCJ can fill a role left by JR , Chol can't
Of course the 'non stat' things are important, but so is the perception of them. Recorded stats become important partly so you can compare and contrast your perception with the statistical facts. For example, if Marbs was getting outmarked as often as your perception insists he has been, that would show up as a statistical fact. The fact is, it doesn't - take a look for yourself how many marks his opponents have taken and contrast that with your perceptions. You're taking a small handful of instances and blowing them out to a massive generalisation.
I'm going to spare you (not to mention anyone else reading) a blow-by-blow list of instances in games, but I would add, for all you or I know, in numerous pack situations he's been specifically asked to play a role which doesn't include contesting in the air when there's been other talls there - it's certainly seemed like it at times when he's very deliberately moved to the rear of the contest to try and take advantage of the ball spilling out the back.
As for him having '19 poor games out of every 20', I realise you're probably exaggerating for effect, but he's played exactly 20 games over the last two seasons. If we look at just his 11 games this year, IMO any fair minded person would have to give him a pass for at least half of them when you consider he got thrown in the deep end as a no.1 ruck against some of the best in the competition. And most fair minded people would grant the fact he's played at least 4-5 good/really good games out of that 20. That's the kind of expectation we should have of him at this stage.
Well, that's quite different to what you said in your earlier post:
"I agree yesterday wasn't great from CCJ, but it does still make the case his weaker games are far more of a contribution than Chol's..."
FWIW, I agree that their lesser games are fairly similar, though in all cases Chol has been the better ruckman. I was also happy enough with CCJ's game on the weekend, it was a pass with some promising signs.
Regarding Marbs' improvement levels and upside, I very much agree with Dimma's on the record statement after the Brisbane game that he's improved every season and his efforts this year have clearly exceeded those from last season. Rucks and ruck/forwards are different beasts, overwhelmingly they don't hit their prime years until their mid-late 20's and from Paul Salmon right on through to this year's poster boy Tom Hickey (without whom the Swans certainly wouldn't be playing finals), history well and truly supports this view.
Marbs has the athleticism and talent to become a very good player 2-4 years from now, by which time he'll have finished his proper apprenticeship of 50-100 games and unlike so many rucks, he has the body type to play well into his 30's in the kind of key mobile big man role Hickey is. IMO, that a fair and reasonable timeline to hold him to.
There's really no better baseline to judge his progress against highly rated players at a similar stage of their career than the WCE game. He smashed Allen in their 1:1 contests - despite also wrestling NicNat all game - and his Brisbane effort far exceeds anything Allen's done this year. Yet most here would probably parcel up our #1 pick to swap him for Allen in a heartbeat, based on nothing but confirmation bias and flawed perception.
_RT_
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For mine it's not the stats that are the difference between CCJ & Chol it's their attitude within the game. Chol goes when it suits him, if he is needed to make a contest invariably there won't be a contest or a token effort unless he has no choice and it hasn't changed since game 1. On the other hand CCJ will have a crack and make a contest pretty much every time it's asked of him. He keeps doing that often enough and the results will come where he will have bigger impacts on games even when the going gets tough. With Chol I just don't see that happening unless everything lines up perfectly for him.
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I can live with your other opinions on Chol, no dramas...
But this bit I can't live with....
In most of those games, he's playing the number 1 ruck role right?
You are trying to tell me that "Role" is to not contest the high ball?
If you are, then someone has clearly forgot to tell Nank that. He competes in the air at every contest (bar the odd one in the fwd line, which I understand the structure, and recognise when Chol should or shouldn't fly there)
He's moved to the back of the pack because he is looking for the easy ball out the back... And I tell you right now, even if that was a game plan for any team, it certainly isn't the ruckman sneaking out the back getting the cheap one... If anything, Chol would be flying and looking to knock it over the back, you know, being the tall athletic one...
I don't know if you meant it to sound that way so apologies if you didn't, but the above comes across like you think there's elements of a) selfishness b) laziness c) lack of courage in his aerial game. I really don't see it that way.
Just because a player is tall, doesn't mean they're naturally great contested markers, sometimes it's an element of the game they need to work on and confidence does wonders in this area. I see Marbs as *sometimes* (I think to say 'often' would once again be feeding into the perception bias I spoke of earlier) being in two minds about whether to go or not. We almost certainly need to take into account coaching instructions, which as I alluded to earlier may involve him being told to play to a bigger current strength and stay down ready to break apart from the pack at ground level, but quite likely also involve him being under instruction to preserve his body a bit in games where he was rucking solo.
I really think there's plenty of examples to support the opposite to what you seem to be suggesting. To take just one example we can all view easily, look at his aerial contest in the Adelaide game when the result was up in the air and Jack took his mark of the year contender. There's no lack of anything, it's just pure attack on the ball.
To me, the biggest, most blatantly obvious difference between Marbs and CCJ in regards to senior level contested marking is a significant contrast in body size.
Yes, CCJ's younger, yes he's had less time in the system, but there's a serious difference in weight and bulk. Until very recently, Marbs has been a skinny kid always contesting against much bigger men. He's bridging that gap in size every year, but there's still a way to go yet.
I think he deserves a season or two at his ultimately filled out size (which CCJ has already reached and Marbs may well be another year, possibly even two away from) before we go making sweeping conclusions.
His primary role when rucking solo was to survive a far greater workload than usual and still have something left at the end if possible. So yes, I do doubt that blowing stamina flying for every very low percentage contested pack mark over others who are better at it (which includes all our tall defenders) was part of his instructions.
Nank is a seasoned 4-quarter senior ruckman, chalk and cheese comparison.
Your 'easy cheap ball' assumption is just that - an assumption. As all his clearances show, his ability to do well at ground level using his pace and agility is a bigger strength at this stage.
And of course, it's also an assumption on my part to read those instances the way I have, I'm just weighing the evidence and coming to that conclusion. If his instructions were to fly for everything, no doubt he's been told his responsibilities and like so many other aspects of his game where he's improved, he'll work at doing better.
A great example of his ability to quickly develop under coaching instructions was how much he's improved at dropping into the hole and taking marks there over his block of games this year - he's now averaging above what Nank has over his career.
