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Consider Hurley and Hooker in comparison to Rance. Rance is certainly the better player but the primary reason that Hurley and Hooker (who were the other two preeminent big daddy key backs of that era) didn’t stack up more genuinely great seasons is because we catastrophically mismanaged them through a combination of a doping scandal, playing them out of position and not keeping them fit and healthy.
Possibly, but it would not have yielded that many more AAs. Perhaps Hurley may have received one in the banned year as he was peaking back then. Even with the banned year though, Hurley only played 8 games less than Rance and Hooker played more.

My point remains, multiple AA players are typically much better than the average AA player who only achieves one. Hurley himself is a better player than most of our single AA players.

EDIT: FWIW, Lore's AA graphs above reinforce this point further as Essendon (who has not been strong enough to win a single final during the times displayed) actually emerges like we've been recruiting better than Geelong, Hawthorn, and Richmond, who collectively have 9 flags over that time.
 
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Possibly, but it would not have yielded that many more AAs. Perhaps Hurley may have received one in the banned year as he was peaking back then. Even with the banned year though, Hurley only played 8 games less than Rance and Hooker played more.

My point remains, multiple AA players are typically much better than the average AA player who only achieves one. Hurley himself is a better player than most of our single AA players.

EDIT: FWIW, Lore's AA graphs above reinforce this point further as Essendon (who has not been strong enough to win a single final during the times displayed) actually emerges like we've been recruiting better than Geelong, Hawthorn, and Richmond, who collectively have 9 flags over that time.
Not recruiting, drafting. And only the national draft. And only since 2008.

Geelong's best players were drafted pre-2008, or else were rookies or trade/FA recruits. They are maximising their recruiting by using multiple currencies, not just draft capital.

Hawthorn's golden era players were recruited 2000-2004.

Colemans: Buddy, Tomahawk were drafted pre-2008, and Cameron was an under-age selection for GWS as a 17 year old, so not national draft either. See also, Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy. Carlton's McKay and Charlie Curnow won the most recent ones, the only players drafted via the national draft since 2008 to do so.


You have to understand the data set before you can analyse it.
 
EDIT: FWIW, Lore's AA graphs above reinforce this point further as Essendon (who has not been strong enough to win a single final during the times displayed) actually emerges like we've been recruiting better than Geelong, Hawthorn, and Richmond, who collectively have 9 flags over that time.

And that's because we've got as much talent through the door but not creating an environment for it to have continued success by not investing in development, coaching and strength and conditioning.

And also, might I add, some of that talent has walked out the door at an absolute rate of knots because we haven't been able to do the above.
 
Not recruiting, drafting. And only the national draft. And only since 2008.

Geelong's best players were drafted pre-2008, or else were rookies or trade/FA recruits. They are maximising their recruiting by using multiple currencies, not just draft capital.

Hawthorn's golden era players were recruited 2000-2004.

Colemans: Buddy, Tomahawk were drafted pre-2008, and Cameron was an under-age selection for GWS as a 17 year old, so not national draft either. See also, Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy. Carlton's McKay and Charlie Curnow won the most recent ones, the only players drafted via the national draft since 2008 to do so.


You have to understand the data set before you can analyse it.
Ok fair enough, I should have said drafting, not recruiting.

That explains why Hawthorn comes out so low. A lot of their AA players over the past decade were traded in so were not drafted by them. Geelong I would have thought would be better, as they still have a lot of AAs over the past decade.

Out of curiosity, why did you select data only from 2008 onwards? Would be interesting to do one going back to 1998.
 

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Ok fair enough, I should have said drafting, not recruiting.

That explains why Hawthorn comes out so low. A lot of their AA players over the past decade were traded in so were not drafted by them. Geelong I would have thought would be better, as they still have a lot of AAs over the past decade.

Out of curiosity, why did you select data only from 2008 onwards? Would be interesting to do one going back to 1998.
Because I originally pulled the data based on a post that said "last 15 years"
 

Both were blatantly obvious bad list decisions. Tippa, smith, Stewart all players whose bodies and fitness were quite obviously nowhere near up to requirement of the AFL anymore.

Does Stewart's $300k+ or so for next year still count against the cap?

Imagine being able to offer a free agent a extra 300k to seal the deal in year 1. Not fussed with either McKay or parish but if Byran leaves for slightly better contract elsewhere emphasises consequences of poor list mgmt.
 
Both were blatantly obvious bad list decisions. Tippa, smith, Stewart all players whose bodies and fitness were quite obviously nowhere near up to requirement of the AFL anymore.

Does Stewart's $300k+ or so for next year still count against the cap?

Imagine being able to offer a free agent a extra 300k to seal the deal in year 1. Not fussed with either McKay or parish but if Byran leaves for slightly better contract elsewhere emphasises consequences of poor list mgmt.
Stewart's money comes out of the cap unless he gets a gig at another club, but we can choose to pay him out early rather than in the next calendar year.

There's enough money for all four to get another $300k and still have some left..
 
Stewart's money comes out of the cap unless he gets a gig at another club, but we can choose to pay him out early rather than in the next calendar year.

There's enough money for all four to get another $300k and still have some left..
It adds up though as we could use it to front load as many contracts and as much as possible. I mean we missed out on Bowes, well pick 7. I would have paid 300k for pick 7.

I think rather than requiring obvious pay outs because we have cash to burn. We could have tried to use that space to take on a bad contracts that have picks attached. Beats doing it for free.
 
Since it's been discussed a bit in here and for anyone who's interested, here are two scatterplots that show the relationship between AAs awarded (not AA players) and flags won during the period, excluding the expansion clubs.

I plotted it going back to 1998 (first plot) and 2008 (second plot).

Interestingly, for anyone interested in statistics those are actually strong correlations. Going back to 1998 gives r = .64, and going back to 2008, it actually increases slightly to r = .66.

Shows that AAs awarded tend to go hand in hand with winning flags, which is why I think they matter. I couldn't get the data but would be interesting to plot this against spoons and finals won during the period as well.



AAs 1998.jpg

AAs 2008.jpg

EDIT: in case anyone is interested, I've highlighted essendon on each graph in red. The second one is revealing, showing the second worst AA record behind North. What an atrocious record.
 
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It's a sign of high quality list management.
This is my gripe with the imbeciles on the main board.

Sure McGrath over McCluggage/Taranto isn’t great but having A 150 game player isn’t a fail.

The gripe I have is this man offers undeserving players contracts that are simply not bang for buck. 2 years in a row is evidence enough. Not to mention the dozen or so recycled Essendon players I mentioned since he was in a position of power under his tenure he has offered second, and sometimes third chances too Without a genuine 100 game player among them.
 
Since it's been discussed a bit in here and for anyone who's interested, here are two scatterplots that show the relationship between AAs awarded (not AA players) and flags won during the period, excluding the expansion clubs.

I plotted it going back to 1998 (first plot) and 2008 (second plot).

Interestingly, for anyone interested in statistics those are actually strong correlations. Going back to 1998 gives r = .64, and going back to 2008, it actually increases slightly to r = .66.

Shows that AAs awarded tend to go hand in hand with winning flags, which is why I think they matter. I couldn't get the data but would be interesting to plot this against spoons and finals won during the period as well.



View attachment 1784554

View attachment 1784555

EDIT: in case anyone is interested, I've highlighted essendon on each graph in red. The second one is revealing, showing the second worst AA record behind North. What an atrocious record.
Correlation or causation?

Do you win the flag because you have AAs, or do your players get AA jackets because you performed well that year? Or perhaps because you played in more prime time games or in more of the games commentated by the AA selection panel? 🤔
 
Correlation or causation?

Do you win the flag because you have AAs, or do your players get AA jackets because you performed well that year? Or perhaps because you played in more prime time games or in more of the games commentated by the AA selection panel? 🤔

AA awards are an outcome, as are flags. Neither cause each other.

What causes both AA awards and flags is having good players, being well coached, etc. Having said that, because they tend to co-occur, they are a good indicator of a high performing side.
 

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Moved Thread Adrian Dodoro - Lodged a dispute with FairWork. Paid out. Gone. #putoutyourjackets

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