AFL 2014 ROUND 1

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A few fantasy markets already appearing so thought I would get 2014 fantasy betting underway.

2 units Lumumba (strange writing that!) U89.5 DT @ $1.75

Last year was a break out year DT wise for Lumumba/O'Brien who increased his average from an incredibly consistent (from 2009 onwards) 62.1, 62.6, 62.2, 62.1 to 87.5. I can't see him averaging anymore than that this year and with Shaw gone may attract a bit more opposition attention. Main reason for this bet however is that is against Freo who rarely give up big DT scores. For what it's worth he also scored just 63 against them last year and 40 the year before.


2 units Ablett O122.5 SC @ $1.87

Ablett's lowest average in the last 6 years is 127.1 and he isn't slowing down yet. On that alone I think the line should be closer to the 130 mark. Gaz has opened the account in the last 2 years with 178 and 139 and covered this line in 9 of his first 12 games in 2013 and 6 of first 7 in 2012. Basically I find that he always starts with a bang and until I see reason to think otherwise he should still average 130 across the year.
 
A few fantasy markets already appearing so thought I would get 2014 fantasy betting underway.

2 units Lumumba (strange writing that!) U89.5 DT @ $1.75

Last year was a break out year DT wise for Lumumba/O'Brien who increased his average from an incredibly consistent (from 2009 onwards) 62.1, 62.6, 62.2, 62.1 to 87.5. I can't see him averaging anymore than that this year and with Shaw gone may attract a bit more opposition attention. Main reason for this bet however is that is against Freo who rarely give up big DT scores. For what it's worth he also scored just 63 against them last year and 40 the year before.


2 units Ablett O122.5 SC @ $1.87

Ablett's lowest average in the last 6 years is 127.1 and he isn't slowing down yet. On that alone I think the line should be closer to the 130 mark. Gaz has opened the account in the last 2 years with 178 and 139 and covered this line in 9 of his first 12 games in 2013 and 6 of first 7 in 2012. Basically I find that he always starts with a bang and until I see reason to think otherwise he should still average 130 across the year.

What agencies have the DT markets up?

PS. Agree with Lumumba, would go under with Ablett, reckon he'll go around 111. 4 of his first 6 games last year were under that spread.
 

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What agencies have the DT markets up?

PS. Agree with Lumumba, would go under with Ablett, reckon he'll go around 111. 4 of his first 6 games last year were under that spread.

Those 2 are with Betstar and Sportsbet. The Ablett bet is Supercoach not Dream Team as it looks like you are thinking of otherwise I would agree if it was a DT line.
 
Those 2 are with Betstar and Sportsbet. The Ablett bet is Supercoach not Dream Team as it looks like you are thinking of otherwise I would agree if it was a DT line.
My mistake
 
Collingwood vs Fremantle

Collingwood 25+ @ $5.90 Centrebet 1 Unit

GWS vs Sydney
Wire to Wire Any Other Result @ $4.25 1 Unit
 

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Bit late to the party this year but G'day.
Looking forward to another winning year here.
Nice to see that this thread taken off this week, still catching up on everything here.

I've taken:
1U - GCS/Richmond Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

I personally think that Collingwood are a much better chance than most are giving for tomorrow. I understand the line movement due to Collingwood's injuries, but those saying it's 'free money' and the 'bet of the round' is wrong IMO.

I've taken:
0.5U - Fremantle @ $2 (Tom Waterhouse Special)

Will also take 1U Magpies SU @ $2.XX with Sportsbet (Lead at any Qtr Break = Refund). Think they will drift from the $2.30 they are atm. so happy to wait till tomorrow.
 
I personally think that Collingwood are a much better chance than most are giving for tomorrow. I understand the line movement due to Collingwood's injuries, but those saying it's 'free money' and the 'bet of the round' is wrong IMO.

Completely agree.

Have taken Col v Fre, neither team to win by 39.5+. Multied with Richmond +12.5. For 1.5.

Had to get to 1.5 to use up a bonus, hence the nervous nancy multi.
 
Alright GROTTO , I finally got my Sportsbet account verified, just in time for footy. Where's my value bet for the round? :p

Well for this week Daleks I like the Power, I think personally they are overs, which may differ to other peoples views on here.

I am not sure of your bet size, but if you are betting $100 or less, Sportsbet have an offer where if the Power leads at any stage during the game (Yes that is correct, at the end of QT,HT,3QT) but loses the match, you get your money back.

(Note that offer is valid for any team you select in R1 or R2 head to head single bets only.)

Good Luck champ.:thumbsu:

**EDIT
 
Last edited:
Well for this week Daleks I like the Power, I think personally they are overs, which may differ to other peoples views on here.

I am not sure of your bet size, but if you are betting $100 or less, Sportsbet have an offer where if the Power leads at any stage during the game but loses the match, you get your money back.

(Note that offer is valid for any team you select in R1 or R2 head to head single bets only.)

Good Luck champ.:thumbsu:
Yep, I agree with you. Chucked a $20 on Port to win.
 
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