AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Walshawk]

2020 is a silly base year. NRL had no presence in Melbourne at all because of Covid.

In 2016 the average Melbourne audience was 641K for the NRL GF.

The NRL has pockets of support in Melbourne but mostly is, because of media relationships with News, nine and SEN, has a decent casual support among AFL fans. The best determinate of what the the TV ratings for the Storm will be in Melbourne at prime time is whether there is an AFL game on. I would hazard a guess that the same thing plays out on foxtel / kayo in Melbourne.

There is no real sign of growth and no real evidence of primary supporter base (i.e unlike the Swans in Sydney). And this is a team that has missed the finals once in 22 seasons and that was only because of the Salary cap cheating penalties. They have:
-finished outside the top 3 times in 19 seasons
-minor premiers 9 times in 19 seasons
-5 premierships (inc those not recognised)
-10 times G finalists

Essentially they have the success profile of a top soccer team in an uncapped european soccer league.

If and when (there may never be a when to be fair) they have a down turn, we will get a better look at how well the sport has established itself in Melbourne

Storm have never had the bandwagon like the Swans had in 86 - 88 and at ituer time over the years. Their support is fairly hardcore. There is not much crossover with AFL fans in my experience. I doubt their crowd would drop as much as the Lions for example, should their from drop.

 

[Angus Young]

Storm have never had the bandwagon like the Swans had in 86 - 88 and at ituer time over the years. Their support is fairly hardcore. There is not much crossover with AFL fans in my experience. I doubt their crowd would drop as much as the Lions for example, should their from drop.

Storm will be good for the next few years. But eventually a drop off will happen and yeah it will be interesting to see what transpires.

 

[Freomaniac]

AFL is becoming very big in Queensland.

The Lions need a 50k stadium.

I agree with the AFL growing slowly again in Queensland.

I dont think the Gabba needs to increase to 50,000 seats.

I remember the Gabba and the stadium capacity. In the mid 1990s when Brisbane started makng finals, the capacity was only 22,000 to 25,000.

When Brisbane had made those grand finals in 2001 to 2004, the Gabba capacity increased to 37,500. The Gabba was sold out each home game in 2002, 2003 and 2004 after the 2001 flag.


You could make a call to increase to 40,000 seats. But when Brisbane struggle again, the crowds will drop to 20,000 people a game.

 

[Freomaniac]

The AFL have a great opportunity to make inroads into the RL market in QLD. Free Auskick programs & junior league registrations & uniforms in a cost of living crisis?

AFLs new tv rights deal starts next season in 2025. That is 643 million a year or 4.5 billon over 7 years.

I think the AFL can spend $100,000 a week or $5.2 million a year on Queensland footy. take 5 million out of that 643 million and there is still 638 million left. Once we increase to 20 sides, Divide 600 million by 20 clubs and its 30 million per club.

 

[Angus Young]

I dont think the Gabba needs to increase to 50,000 seats.

I remember the Gabba and the stadium capacity. In the mid 1990s when Brisbane started makng finals, the capacity was only 22,000 to 25,000.

When Brisbane had made those grand finals in 2001 to 2004, the Gabba capacity increased to 37,500. The Gabba was sold out each home game in 2002, 2003 and 2004 after the 2001 flag.

You could make a call to increase to 40,000 seats. But when Brisbane struggle again, the crowds will drop to 20,000 people a game.

Their membership has doubled or more since then. It´s like 56,000 now

50,000 stadium means more ticketed members and more general public and casual fans etc attending.

Going by what I´ve seen in the media the Lions and AFL in general is as big as it´s ever been in QLD.

37 doesnt cut it anymore and 40 whats the point

Let´s say 45/50k

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Their membership has doubled or more since then. It´s like 56,000 now

50,000 stadium means more ticketed members and more general public and casual fans etc attending.

Going by what I´ve seen in the media the Lions and AFL in general is as big as it´s ever been in QLD.

37 doesnt cut it anymore and 40 whats the point

Let´s say 45/50k

The lions have 65000 members

 

[Bjo187]

Their membership has doubled or more since then. It´s like 56,000 now

50,000 stadium means more ticketed members and more general public and casual fans etc attending.

Going by what I´ve seen in the media the Lions and AFL in general is as big as it´s ever been in QLD.

37 doesnt cut it anymore and 40 whats the point

Let´s say 45/50k

Their membership has gone from low 40s to low 60 thousands in just 2 years.

Their social media added nearly 40k users in 2 weeks around the grand final, from 170s to 215k, which has been discussed in this thread previously.

So yes the lions are having some great growth and would no doubt grow into a 60k stadium over time, if that's what gets built. Again though, not every game needs to be a sellout, they would be no different to a marvel tenant that goes through a form slump in a 54k stadium. Their base level of support is much stronger now than it was 10 to 20 years ago.

 

[GC2015]

I agree with the AFL growing slowly again in Queensland.

I dont think the Gabba needs to increase to 50,000 seats.

I remember the Gabba and the stadium capacity. In the mid 1990s when Brisbane started makng finals, the capacity was only 22,000 to 25,000.

When Brisbane had made those grand finals in 2001 to 2004, the Gabba capacity increased to 37,500. The Gabba was sold out each home game in 2002, 2003 and 2004 after the 2001 flag.


You could make a call to increase to 40,000 seats. But when Brisbane struggle again, the crowds will drop to 20,000 people a game.

It's mostly dependent on how long the Lions stay in the top 8, and perhaps more specifically in the top 4. So far they've qualified for the finals in the last 6 consecutive years run (the only AFL team to do so) and each of those years they've either finished top 4 on the ladder or qualified their way into the prelim. During this time their membership has grown from 24k at the end of 2018 to 62k in 2024. Their average home attendance has gone from 18k in 2018 to well over 30k in 2024 - that number would be a lot higher if they weren't capped to 37k for their marquee clashes against teams like Collingwood on Easter Thursday. It's not a stretch to suggest that annual marquee fixture against Collingwood (and potentially others) would pull close to 50k if the stadium permitted.

You need a period of sustained success for 7-10 years in order to invoke a generational change within a market and the Lions look close to achieving that now that they're 6 years in and not looking like falling away anytime soon. Winning the premiership definitely helps as well. Think of it this way, when the Lions finished 2nd on the ladder and began selling out the Gabba again in 2019, you had juniors like Sam Marshall and Levi Ashcroft who were 12 years old at the time and may have just started to take their footy seriously by taking pride in being a Lions supporter. The longer you sustain this success, the lower that age goes and the less likely they are to remember a time when the Lions weren't playing finals. Get a full generation of kids who grew up dreaming of playing for the Lions one day and you'll see that a lot of them will become lifelong rusted on Lions supporters who will continue to support/attend games even when the Lions aren't doing as well onfield. You'll also see some talented local kids coming through their academy and that's a good thing for the game.

The Lions are the premiers and are about to add Levi Ashcroft to their line up. They aren't dropping away anytime soon. Build the 50-60k stadium and watch them continue to grow / prosper over the next decade. That's good for footy.

 

[Freomaniac]

Their membership has doubled or more since then. It´s like 56,000 now

50,000 stadium means more ticketed members and more general public and casual fans etc attending.

Going by what I´ve seen in the media the Lions and AFL in general is as big as it´s ever been in QLD.

37 doesnt cut it anymore and 40 whats the point

Let´s say 45/50k

Maybe so...

But those 50,000- 55,000 Brisbane members, How many of them are season ticket holders? How many of them just go to 2 or 3 or 4 games a year?


GWS has got 30,000 members and Struggle to get 10,000 at home games.

 

[Freomaniac]

It's mostly dependent on how long the Lions stay in the top 8, and perhaps more specifically in the top 4. So far they've qualified for the finals in the last 6 consecutive years run (the only AFL team to do so) and each of those years they've either finished top 4 on the ladder or qualified their way into the prelim. During this time their membership has grown from 24k at the end of 2018 to 62k in 2024. Their average home attendance has gone from 18k in 2018 to well over 30k in 2024 - that number would be a lot higher if they weren't capped to 37k for their marquee clashes against teams like Collingwood on Easter Thursday. It's not a stretch to suggest that annual marquee fixture against Collingwood (and potentially others) would pull close to 50k if the stadium permitted.

You need a period of sustained success for 7-10 years in order to invoke a generational change within a market and the Lions look close to achieving that now that they're 6 years in and not looking like falling away anytime soon. Winning the premiership definitely helps as well. Think of it this way, when the Lions finished 2nd on the ladder and began selling out the Gabba again in 2019, you had juniors like Sam Marshall and Levi Ashcroft who were 12 years old at the time and may have just started to take their footy seriously by taking pride in being a Lions supporter. The longer you sustain this success, the lower that age goes and the less likely they are to remember a time when the Lions weren't playing finals. Get a full generation of kids who grew up dreaming of playing for the Lions one day and you'll see that a lot of them will become lifelong rusted on Lions supporters who will continue to support/attend games even when the Lions aren't doing as well onfield. You'll also see some talented local kids coming through their academy and that's a good thing for the game.

The Lions are the premiers and are about to add Levi Ashcroft to their line up. They aren't dropping away anytime soon. Build the 50-60k stadium and watch them continue to grow / prosper over the next decade. That's good for footy.

this is true.

Saying that... Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1995 to 97.

As I said earlier. Wooden spoon in 1998. Leigh Matthews became coach at the end of 1998. Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1999 to 2004.


They needed that finals run in 1999 to 2004. They needed at least one flag from 2001 to 2004. they needed that.

Brisbane needed that flag in this 2019 to 2024 period as well for the next generation of fans.

 

[dave10]

this is true.

Saying that... Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1995 to 97.

As I said earlier. Wooden spoon in 1998. Leigh Matthews became coach at the end of 1998. Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1999 to 2004.


They needed that finals run in 1999 to 2004. They needed at least one flag from 2001 to 2004. they needed that.

Brisbane needed that flag in this 2019 to 2024 period as well for the next generation of fans.

All that is true. And those periods of success, and the covid free kick have all contributed to a positive and noticeable increase in AFL presence, participation and support in SEQ over the last 25 years. The support for AFL up here can’t be compared to 10 years ago, let along 25 years ago. There’s been an astronomical increase in general coverage, attendance and participation.

AFL ovals are now popping up, academies are generating local talent which is fuelling further participation, competition and interest.

AFL used to be a niche support that was noticed at times and in certain areas. It’s now an everyday competitor with tangible interest levels throughout, albeit certainly not the leading sport.. That’s great progress.

I think NSW / Sydney is a tougher market and the growth of the code in the west is slower than hoped.

 

[Freomaniac]

All that is true. And those periods of success, and the covid free kick have all contributed to a positive and noticeable increase in AFL presence, participation and support in SEQ over the last 25 years. The support for AFL up here can’t be compared to 10 years ago, let along 25 years ago. There’s been an astronomical increase in general coverage, attendance and participation.

AFL ovals are now popping up, academies are generating local talent which is fuelling further participation, competition and interest.

AFL used to be a niche support that was noticed at times and in certain areas. It’s now an everyday competitor with tangible interest levels throughout, albeit certainly not the leading sport.. That’s great progress.

I think NSW / Sydney is a tougher market and the growth of the code in the west is slower than hoped.

I always knew a decent grass roots footy in Queensland was achievable. For some reason there has been some younger players being drafted from the QAFL.

Not elite talent or all Australian talent or Brownlow medal winners but some decent kids that become b graders or solid players.

This is without mentioning the academy camps.

If Brisbane lions do well, people will rock up to the Gabba.

Brisbane struggles, it reminds me of a struggling Victorian side that hosts Docklands games.

Brisbane being bottom 4 from 2014 to 2018 wasn't good. 15,000 people rocking up in the Gabba wasn't great for tv.

Need gold coast to be making finals. The Gold coast suns can fill Gold coast stadium if they win games.

I agree on NSW, that's gonna be harder to convert them to paying fans.

 

[GC2015]

this is true.

Saying that... Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1995 to 97.

As I said earlier. Wooden spoon in 1998. Leigh Matthews became coach at the end of 1998. Brisbane had a sustained finals run in 1999 to 2004.


They needed that finals run in 1999 to 2004. They needed at least one flag from 2001 to 2004. they needed that.

Brisbane needed that flag in this 2019 to 2024 period as well for the next generation of fans.

It's important to consider the context of what was happening in Brisbane at the time. The Broncos had just become Brisbane's pride and joy by winning the 1992 & 1993 NSWRL premierships (they averaged home crowds of 43k in 1993) and followed it up with finals appearances between 1994-96 as well as another premiership in 1997. No doubt that would have stunted the growth for the Bears to some degree, but they still went from average home crowds of 11k at the Gabba in 1993 to 19k in 1997.

No doubt the Lions gained a lot more from their 2001-2004 run. Obviously three premierships and four grand finals helps, but you also had the Broncos not going deep in the finals those years. Then you have the ultimate scenario that we saw play out this year when the Lions walked away with the premiership and the Broncos (+ Dolphins) don't even qualify for the finals. The current membership + attendance numbers back up that growth for the Lions and it would be in the AFL's best interests (in terms of growing the game) to try to keep this going in Brisbane as long as they can to ensure a generational change within Brisbane.

 

[RedV3x]

I always knew a decent grass roots footy in Queensland was achievable.

People are falsely talking as if Queensland football is coming from a low base - it wasn't.
The QAFL was once a retirement home for big name VFL coaches and QAFL finals drew some relatively decent crowds.
Regional football has grown since then, arguably more isolated .from AFL movements.

AFLW has been a huge addition to football in Queensland and cannot be excluded from the equation.

Brisbane and Gold Coast are more directly connected to the AFL and obviously onfield performance is very important to growth like it is with any club at any level, but the baseline has definitely improved.
I cannot believe all these proposed theoretical "what ifs" - it's obvious that Brisbane needs a word class stadium to showcase the world on part of Australia.
Now is NOT the time to debate the basic cost - that should have been done BEFORE acceptances.

I agree on NSW, that's gonna be harder to convert them to paying fans.

First of all nobody is going to "convert" fans - that's very rare.
Anecdotes.
A workmate, not into sports, listening to VFL of the radio thought it sounded exciting. he and his wife became one of the most passionate Swans fans and his wife scattered some ashes (illegally) on the SCG.
My wife's family who followed East Sydney actually supported the Swans by becoming members.
MY boss was a N.S. Bears tragic but his daughters followed the Swans and thus so did he.

The Swans did their research and originally based their crowd expectations on expats and local league supporters.
The SFL was the first local league to be decimated by the the AFL!
The Giants apparently don't have that luxury and thus it was always going to be a generational change.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Their membership has doubled or more since then. It´s like 56,000 now

50,000 stadium means more ticketed members and more general public and casual fans etc attending.

Going by what I´ve seen in the media the Lions and AFL in general is as big as it´s ever been in QLD.

37 doesnt cut it anymore and 40 whats the point

Let´s say 45/50k

Sold out games at the Gabba rarely get close to the venue’s capacity either. Pretty sure 10/12 Lions games were sellouts this year, which ensures there are thousands of fans missing out on attending games most weeks. This isn’t my area of expertise, but I’m assuming that playing at a modern, higher capacity venue would see the Lions expand their number of season ticket holders, whilst also offering a greater volume of GA options. That can only fuel the club’s growth, so I think that a 50k+ venue is necessary to serve the club for now and the next 30 years of its existence.

 

[dave10]

Sold out games at the Gabba rarely get close to the venue’s capacity either. Pretty sure 10/12 Lions games were sellouts this year, which ensures there are thousands of fans missing out on attending games most weeks. This isn’t my area of expertise, but I’m assuming that playing at a modern, higher capacity venue would see the Lions expand their number of season ticket holders, whilst also offering a greater volume of GA options. That can only fuel the club’s growth, so I think that a 50k+ venue is necessary to serve the club for now and the next 30 years of its existence.

I think you’re on the money.

Assuming the Lions form holds up, you'd expect their crowds would only strengthen next year as more members would be obviously using their memberships and this increased participation at the turnstiles grows crowds.

I’d say there’s genuine demand in Brisbane for a ~55,000 seater, knowing reality is that working capacity would only top out at around 45-50k. Obviously economics aside on building it, a big cuty with expected growth if AFL warrants more capacity.

Queenslanders a miffed why their city hasn’t secured big live concerts so working these into the economics, with other commercial opportunities inside the venue (eg: a hotel?) suggests long term vision warrants a bigger venue for the city.

 

[RedV3x]

Assuming the Lions form holds up, you'd expect their crowds would only strengthen

That's logical but in fact the reverse could be true.

When the SCG capacity lowered due to reconstruction then memberships went up to secure seats
but the actual attendance went down as members didn't always use there seats.

Waiting for attendance "improvements" at the Gabba is quite meaningless.