AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[mighty_lions]

The Brisbane Lions had 65000 members in 2024 compared to Brisbane Broncos 40000.

So the argument is that Brisbane city has more passionate AFL fans than passionate NRL fans.

Am I wrong?

When I say passionate, I mean they genuinely go for their team. Not just because they’ve grown up in a traditional NRL state and identify with a team, or watch the game but barely care if their team wins or loses.

that's not accurate broncos posted around 61-62k to from memory late august

 

[Coolangatta]

I can understand your hesitation from a Lions' perspective after what happened last time another Queensland team entered the league. From an AFL perspective, a second team in Brisbane essentially means double the chance of Brisbane being represented in the finals each year. So even if the Lions do fall away (which they eventually will), there's always the possibility that a second Brisbane team makes the finals and the Brisbane market remains engaged in the product during September. Don't forget, Brisbane is the only major city that doesn't have two teams in the AFL so it's completely dependent on the Lions remaining highly competitive. That's not a good long term strategy because we know the Lions are going to eventually fall away.

There's also the dream scenario that has the Lions, Suns AND Brisbane2 all playing finals at the same time. That would really super charge growth up here!

Canberra Saints, North Brisbane Kangaroos, Tassie Devils team 19, Perth Miners for team 20.

Then maybe in 30 years, Auckland Pirates and Newcastle Hunters to make it 22 teams and in 50 years finish off with Darwin Dingoes and Cairns Crocodiles.

Won’t happen but that’d be a much more national league with Victoria still having 8/24 so 1/3 of the teams.

 

[raskolnikov]

Am I wrong?

Yes. For some reason, probably because watching RL on tv loses nothing compared to watching it live, RL has never attracted huge crowds. However don't be deceived, RL is a much more popular sport. Outside the 65,000 members no one in Queensland would give AFL more of a passing interest. A couple of years ago I was at a pub when the Geelong- Collingwood final was on. A NRL final was on at the same time. Every tv had the NRL final on. I had to request if one of the tvs could be turned over to the AFL final. At work on a Monday morning everyone is talking about the NRL results, not the AFL results.

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

that's not accurate broncos posted around 61-62k to from memory late august

Ah I see. The NRL site must be horribly wrong. I don’t see it anywhere saying it’s over 60000 though? The Lions membership numbers will be up near 70000 next year, and I’d expect the Broncos numbers to dwindle.

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Outside the 65,000 members no one in Queensland would give AFL more of a passing interest.

No true by a long stretch.

A couple of years ago I was at a pub when the Geelong- Collingwood final was on. A NRL final was on at the same time. Every tv had the NRL final on.

Yeah 2022, but that was a Broncos game.

At work on a Monday morning everyone is talking about the NRL results, not the AFL results.

That is your work place. My last 2 work place talk about the AFL.

 

[GC2015]

Canberra Saints, North Brisbane Kangaroos, Tassie Devils team 19, Perth Miners for team 20.

Then maybe in 30 years, Auckland Pirates and Newcastle Hunters to make it 22 teams and in 50 years finish off with Darwin Dingoes and Cairns Crocodiles.

Won’t happen but that’d be a much more national league with Victoria still having 8/24 so 1/3 of the teams.

I'm sure the AFL would like that outcome if they could somehow manufacture it, but like you said it's not going to happen. The 10 Victorian teams are very likely to be retained going forward and we're working towards 10 non-Vic teams at the moment with Tassie19 on the way and whatever the 20th team ends up being.

I'd be seriously looking at North Brisbane (with the Sunshine Coast involved) for the 20th team if I was the AFL because there's still so much room for growth in the fast growing Brisbane market and we've seen very promising results from the Lions (who are based in the western corridor) in recent years. Add in the new 50k+ oval stadium that's coming for the Olympics and it just makes a lot of sense to me, particularly if the NRL are about to start a third team in Brisbane.

It's fairly likely that the finals system will be expanded to 10 teams soon so you have a pretty good chance of at least one Queensland taking part every year should you have three competing. From a growth perspective, you want to keep each major market engaged in the product as long as you possibly can and if you double the likelyhood of Brisbane participating in September action each year, that's going to pay dividends when the Lions eventually drop off.

 

[Bjo187]

I'm sure the AFL would like that outcome if they could somehow manufacture it, but like you said it's not going to happen. The 10 Victorian teams are very likely to be retained going forward and we're working towards 10 non-Vic teams at the moment with Tassie19 on the way and whatever the 20th team ends up being.

I'd be seriously looking at North Brisbane (with the Sunshine Coast involved) for the 20th team if I was the AFL because there's still so much room for growth in the fast growing Brisbane market and we've seen very promising results from the Lions (who are based in the western corridor) in recent years. Add in the new 50k+ oval stadium that's coming for the Olympics and it just makes a lot of sense to me, particularly if the NRL are about to start a third team in Brisbane.

It's fairly likely that the finals system will be expanded to 10 teams soon so you have a pretty good chance of at least one Queensland taking part every year should you have three competing. From a growth perspective, you want to keep each major market engaged in the product as long as you possibly can and if you double the likelyhood of Brisbane participating in September action each year, that's going to pay dividends when the Lions eventually drop off.

Where do you see more potential, Brisbane or Perth for another team? I don't think it would go down too well in w.a if qld has 3 teams and they only have 2, w.a is growing pretty quickly too. Also, where would they be based, would they play some games out of a city on the sunshine coast?

Overall I like the idea, but it's a long haul kinda idea, as if it wasn't a relocated club, it would struggle to build a fanbase for 25 years or so similar to the suns and giants.

 

[RedV3x]

That's true and it would be highly unlikely that the Kangaroos were going to move in the first place even if I still think the best case would be a North Melbourne and NT joint-venture model IMO.

No possibility.
I would hope for a N.M. in Canberra. leaving Br3 as an option.

it's only recently that the Lions have gained decent popularity again from numerous finals appearances and a premiership

You forget the threepeat!!

I'm still a little concerned what will happen if the Lions have a dip again or the Gold Coast continues to fail.

Onfield succes is integral to any success.
Unfortunately that made any expansion difficult as it gets proportionally difficult to play finals football.
AND there isn't enough recognition that a team is successful in just playing finals.

Hopefully the NRL don't locate another team in SEQ though but if the Perth or PNG bid fails, they will definitely replace that with another SEQ team in Ipswich as you said.

Ipswitch is a no brainer w.r.t. NRL consolidation.
but really have zero effect on AFL.

No offence to RL supporters but funny how they consider themselves a national sport also

Unfortunately common sense does not prevail but money and government preferences do.

 

[Macca180]

Be good if Brisbane could get a state of the stadium like Optus or Adelaide Oval

 

[Go GWS!]

Ah I see. The NRL site must be horribly wrong. I don’t see it anywhere saying it’s over 60000 though? The Lions membership numbers will be up near 70000 next year, and I’d expect the Broncos numbers to dwindle.

I just did some googling, and don't have any answer whatsoever for 2024, but did find the following in the Broncos 2023 Annual Report. Guess we will need to wait another 6 months for a definitive answer for this year? Make of this what you will.

Total membership, ticketing, corporate sales and game day revenue increased 35.3% to $23,249,764 (2022: $17,177,715). Home game attendance increased 15.2%, with crowds averaging 33,793 (2022: 29,343). In the 2023 season, three NRL games were played at The Gabba due to Suncorp Stadium being unavailable during the Women’s soccer World Cup. This resulted in a Suncorp Stadium average crowd of 36,008 and Gabba average crowd of 27,151. Total 2023 membership numbers increased to 47,346 (2022: 36,800) with ticketed membership numbers increasing to 37,916 (2022: 25,132) and non-ticketed membership numbers decreasing to 9,430 (2022: 11,668).

https://www.broncos.com.au/siteassets/about-us/pdfs/240424---2023-annual-report-to-shareholders.pdf

 

[GC2015]

Where do you see more potential, Brisbane or Perth for another team? I don't think it would go down too well in w.a if qld has 3 teams and they only have 2, w.a is growing pretty quickly too. Also, where would they be based, would they play some games out of a city on the sunshine coast?

Overall I like the idea, but it's a long haul kinda idea, as if it wasn't a relocated club, it would struggle to build a fanbase for 25 years or so similar to the suns and giants.

Brisbane currently has a larger population than Perth. Both Brisbane and Perth appear to be growing at a similar rate at the moment (both 81k increase in 2022-23) but Brisbane also has other fairly large cities around it that it can tap into like the Sunshine Coast (370k), Ipswich (250k), Logan (380k), Toowoomba (180k) and even the Gold Coast (700k) that are growing quickly as well. I'd be surprised if the areas within 100kms of Perth are as populated or growing at the same rate as those in south east Queensland. Being on the east coast and only 1-2 hours flight away from all teams not based in WA likely favours Brisbane as well.

Brisbane is a growth market for the AFL. Perth is not. Aussie rules already dominates in Perth. It is a clear second (maybe even third) in Brisbane. Perth already has two AFL teams. Brisbane has one AFL team. If my goal is to maximise growth of the game (which the AFL has clearly prioritised lately) then I'm picking Brisbane2 instead of Perth3 for expansion.

You could base them anywhere between north Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, as long as the name of the team uses the word 'Brisbane' and they play mostly in Brisbane then they have the best opportunity to tap into the biggest market in the state. As for the split of where they play, I'd suggest playing 9 home games at the Gabba/new stadium and 2 home games on the Sunshine Coast. That means they would play at the Gabba 10 times a year when you consider the away game against the Lions and another away game an hour away on the Gold Coast. Overall, fans of a Brisbane2 AFL team would get 13 opportunities to see their team play each year without having to get on a plane.

That also takes the total AFL games played in Brisbane to 20 each year and the Sunshine Coast get their opportunity to connect with the team twice a year as well. It's the GWS-Canberra model (with a much shorter distance) that has worked out well for the Giants and it's basically what the Dolphins do with 10 games in Brisbane and 3 in Moreton Bay. That's how I would do it.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Brisbane currently has a larger population than Perth. Both Brisbane and Perth appear to be growing at a similar rate at the moment (both 81k increase in 2022-23) but Brisbane also has other fairly large cities around it that it can tap into like the Sunshine Coast (370k), Ipswich (250k), Logan (380k), Toowoomba (180k) and even the Gold Coast (700k) that are growing quickly as well. I'd be surprised if the areas within 100kms of Perth are as populated or growing at the same rate as those in south east Queensland. Being on the east coast and only 1-2 hours flight away from all teams not based in WA likely favours Brisbane as well.

Pretty sure Ipswich and Logan already count in Brisbane's population.

I agree that Southeast Queensland's population of four million represents greater growth potential than Perth's 2.5 million.

But I think the focus for Southeast Queensland should be the new stadium. Hopefully, capacity in Brisbane is about to go from 35k to 60k seats every fortnight. Jumping to 120k seats a fortnight might be an oversupply.

I absolutely think SEQ should be on the radar for Team 21/22.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

You could base them anywhere between north Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, as long as the name of the team uses the word 'Brisbane' and they play mostly in Brisbane then they have the best opportunity to tap into the biggest market in the state. As for the split of where they play, I'd suggest playing 9 home games at the Gabba/new stadium and 2 home games on the Sunshine Coast. That means they would play at the Gabba 10 times a year when you consider the away game against the Lions and another away game an hour away on the Gold Coast. Overall, fans of a Brisbane2 AFL team would get 13 opportunities to see their team play each year without having to get on a plane.

That also takes the total AFL games played in Brisbane to 20 each year and the Sunshine Coast get their opportunity to connect with the team twice a year as well. It's the GWS-Canberra model (with a much shorter distance) that has worked out well for the Giants and it's basically what the Dolphins do with 10 games in Brisbane and 3 in Moreton Bay. That's how I would do it.

If the team represented the Northern corridor, extending up to the SC, then I would have thought that ‘Moreton Bay’ would be a fairly apt name for a club like this. Moreton Bay Bullsharks or even Moreton Bay Bulls would work.

 

[Bjo187]

I would say Perth is fishing where some fish are, with a dominant media to back you up in a severely under serviced market. There are a lot of new Australians in Perth too, which is a market that could be captured with a new team (instead of being lost) and greater access to games. It's kinda the theory of keeping current customers is easier than trying to attract new customers.

Brisbane's growth could come from a new bigger stadium capacity alone (although the liberals are acting dodgey, maybe the nrl got to them too as their new sports minister is an former nrl referee), plus gold coast is somewhat like a rivalry club, that's only an hour away, so fills the derby void.

I don't think another Brisbane team would necessarily grab much additional media for the game either, much like the giants haven't gotten much in Sydney compared to the swans.

I don't mind the idea overall, I just think as team 20 it would be a bit too early. I do hope they bid for a new licence though to create competition and draw out extra government funding from the other bid locations.

 

[Coolangatta]

I'm sure the AFL would like that outcome if they could somehow manufacture it, but like you said it's not going to happen. The 10 Victorian teams are very likely to be retained going forward and we're working towards 10 non-Vic teams at the moment with Tassie19 on the way and whatever the 20th team ends up being.

I'd be seriously looking at North Brisbane (with the Sunshine Coast involved) for the 20th team if I was the AFL because there's still so much room for growth in the fast growing Brisbane market and we've seen very promising results from the Lions (who are based in the western corridor) in recent years. Add in the new 50k+ oval stadium that's coming for the Olympics and it just makes a lot of sense to me, particularly if the NRL are about to start a third team in Brisbane.

It's fairly likely that the finals system will be expanded to 10 teams soon so you have a pretty good chance of at least one Queensland taking part every year should you have three competing. From a growth perspective, you want to keep each major market engaged in the product as long as you possibly can and if you double the likelyhood of Brisbane participating in September action each year, that's going to pay dividends when the Lions eventually drop off.

I agree the 10 VIC clubs are staying.

In which case I’d go Canberra team 20.

Not to be negative but I don’t think the AFL ever gets that popular in Sydney that a third team there would be necessary, so then I’d go Perth 3 and Brisbane 2 for teams 21 and 22 in about 25-30 years time.

And then in 50 odd years I’d be looking at Auckland and Newcastle.

That’s 24 teams with top end teams either never happening or not until next century when we aren’t around rendering it irrelevant for us.

 

[Aussie in exile]

As I find rugby league a bit boring, I'd love this to happen it won't. Once they change their coach, the Broncos are going to get their house in order in the next few years.

Make no mistake Michael McGuire will return a winning culture to the Broncos.

 

[Bjo187]

Make no mistake Michael McGuire will return a winning culture to the Broncos.

You must he pumped about this Michael McGuire bloke quoting a post from back in 2020 to bring him into the conversation .

 

[PhatBoy]

That's true and it would be highly unlikely that the Kangaroos were going to move in the first place even if I still think the best case would be a North Melbourne and NT joint-venture model IMO.

Regarding a third SEQ team, still have doubts about that happening especially if it is a brand new team coming in and representing the North Brisbane / Sunshine Coast as we saw the ramifications of Gold Coast coming in and causing Brisbane's membership base to half.

As much as it would be nice to have another team up there, it's only recently that the Lions have gained decent popularity again from numerous finals appearances and a premiership to their name while the Suns haven't played finals since their inception so I'm still a little concerned what will happen if the Lions have a dip again or the Gold Coast continues to fail.

Plus, QLD3 would not be ready for the 20th team slot IMO (either Canberra, WA3 or NT) and would have more luck bidding for the 21st and 22nd team.

Hopefully the NRL don't locate another team in SEQ though but if the Perth or PNG bid fails, they will definitely replace that with another SEQ team in Ipswich as you said.

No offence to RL supporters but funny how they consider themselves a national sport also

I don’t consider it a national sport. The fact that it has a national team might drive that view in some quarters but the fact is, it’s not.

I like that it has a presence in Melbourne, it has a following of sorts in WA in that it draws reasonable crowds and even the Reds during their brief history did ok crowd wise but it was niche and they didn’t have an imprint at all. It’s not a national code in any way beyond that people from Tassie, NT, SA and WA could probably name some teams and that’s about it. I think a fair few Melbournites by now probably at least know a bit about the storm albeit they still don’t really give a shit

 

[PhatBoy]

The Brisbane Lions had 65000 members in 2024 compared to Brisbane Broncos 40000.

So the argument is that Brisbane city has more passionate AFL fans than passionate NRL fans.

Am I wrong?

When I say passionate, I mean they genuinely go for their team. Not just because they’ve grown up in a traditional NRL state and identify with a team, or watch the game but barely care if their team wins or loses.

I feel this needs to be pointed out - the usual suspects can jump all over this all they want but it doesn’t matter.

Membership is not the inherent part of rugby league culture that it is in AFL.

I have never, ever been a member of the Roosters and nothing drives me to want to be one. It’s not really a done thing. And I think a part of that is - it’s undeniable - related to the fact that it’s easier to go to a game most of the time. The games aren’t as well attended, so you don’t need to be a member to get a ticket. You rock up most weeks and you can go. But whatever the reason, it doesn’t happen.

Even as an interstater, I’ve had memberships to the Cats for probably 5-6 seasons in total because it has always been a very rusted-on aspect of AFL culture

 

[Go GWS!]

I'm usually a lurker, so excuse me for coming in two days in a row. Just wanted to share that headlines like this do not help us:

‘WTF?’: Lions fans outraged at ‘premiership tax’ price hikes​

The Brisbane Lions have been accused of slugging loyal fans with a “premiership tax”, with member seat prices at the Gabba soaring by up to 55 per cent.

Upset members have taken to social media to vent their anger over the “reclassification” of their seats for 2025, following last month’s historic grand final triumph over the Sydney Swans.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/wtf-lions-fans-outraged-at-premiership-tax-price-hikes/news-story/1dd0fece23ba50aebb5eb6d5971388be?amp

It's actually a nothing story, but don't underestimate the media in Queensland.

 

[Cmarsh]

I'm usually a lurker, so excuse me for coming in two days in a row. Just wanted to share that headlines like this do not help us:

‘WTF?’: Lions fans outraged at ‘premiership tax’ price hikes​

The Brisbane Lions have been accused of slugging loyal fans with a “premiership tax”, with member seat prices at the Gabba soaring by up to 55 per cent.

Upset members have taken to social media to vent their anger over the “reclassification” of their seats for 2025, following last month’s historic grand final triumph over the Sydney Swans.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/wtf-lions-fans-outraged-at-premiership-tax-price-hikes/news-story/1dd0fece23ba50aebb5eb6d5971388be?amp

It's actually a nothing story, but don't underestimate the media in Queensland.

Is it a nothing story? Seems a very big price rise.

 

[raskolnikov]

As I find rugby league a bit boring, I'd love this to happen but it won't. Once they change their coach, the Broncos are going to get their house in order in the next few years.

League is a bit of an enigma. The best games (state of origin, GFs) are absolute crackers. Most games are typically boring though.

 

[Go GWS!]

Is it a nothing story? Seems a very big price rise.

On balance it is okay. Sitting down is the detail that "membership of the Lions has soared to more than 63,000, with 70,000-plus members expected next season..."

That's a great message to get out there. Just a shame about the headline, but seriously, the content seems to be lifted from a couple of comments on reddit. Not exactly journalism.

 

[Bjo187]

It does seem too big of a raise at once, but 70k members in a 35k stadium and off the back of a flag, is probably the best time to do it. I don't doubt the media biased of news corp in the northern states either, but I don't think courier mail is anywhere near the level of trash as the daily telegraph, I know they're pushing for a new stadium in Victoria park.

Essendon did a big raise too off the back of another ordinary season. I had family that have been reserved seat members for over 20 years cancelled, you've gotta really pick your time to raise your prices as a club imo, because you can lose lifelong fans from attending forever.

 

[GC2015]

membership of the Lions has soared to more than 63,000, with 70,000-plus members expected next season...

That's a great message to get out there.

Securing 70k members for the Lions in 2025 would be an outstanding effort. I think the Suns will be pushing for 30k next year as well after hitting 26k this year. So it's not unreasonably to suggest we're going to see 100k AFL members in Queensland next year.