AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[Johnny Bananas]

And yet today you are bigger than ever,

Don't confuse the afterglow of a premiership victory with the new normal. If a premiership victory always meant lasting off field success, the entry of the Suns wouldn't have harmed the Lions at all given they had three premierships within the past ten years.

and there is also a second club which, while struggling on field, is growing along fine off field and doing wonders for participation and interest in the gold coast.

Yes they are, but remember how much they've had to struggle to get to this point. There were plenty of absolute halfwits in the media and here on BF who wanted to take away their licence at various points in the past 15 years. Those people should never be listened to ever again on any matters to do with expansion.

I am not so sure that a third Brisbane club is that bad an idea... yes it will hurt the lions in the short and perhaps medium term, but long term it would make the league and code stronger. And that's the point.

Sure, in the long term. But you need to survive the short and medium term to make it in the long term. The Lions are not at that point yet, and won't be at least until the stadium question is sorted.

 

[Fire]

Don't confuse the afterglow of a premiership victory with the new normal.

I didn't? I just said you were bigger than ever.
Yes, you have obviously ebbed and flowed with your ladder position as all teams do, but over the past 20 years since your three-peat, you have grown. And in that time you have had the suns move in. So footy, over SEQ, is much stronger than just the Lions now.

Yes they are, but remember how much they've had to struggle to get to this point.

Have they though? On field sure, but have they really off? They seem to be kicking all the goals they need to be.

There were plenty of absolute halfwits in the media and here on BF who wanted to take away their licence at various points in the past 15 years. Those people should never be listened to ever again on any matters to do with expansion.

There still are, and they are ignorant to what is actually happening and the strategy. Complaints about costs and confusion with on field success just show they have NFI. We both understand this.

Sure, in the long term. But you need to survive the short and medium term to make it in the long term. The Lions are not at that point yet, and won't be at least until the stadium question is sorted.

The Lions aren't going anywhere. Realistically you would be looking for a ~2030 entry anyway, so we aren't talking about tomorrow. So if the stadium isn't sorted by then, then you probably need the pull of another club to help it get sorted. 22 games is twice the case of 11.

Look, I am not putting Brisbane 2 above Canberra. I am really hoping for a Canberra team for 20. But I would much rather see a second Brisbane team over a third Perth one.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I didn't? I just said you were bigger than ever.

Did you mean that this is a short-term flash in the pan then?

Yes, you have obviously ebbed and flowed with your ladder position as all teams do, but over the past 20 years since your three-peat, you have grown.

No, in the past eight years we've grown. In the 13 years before that we went significantly backwards.

And in that time you have had the suns move in. So footy, over SEQ, is much stronger than just the Lions now.

Of course it is. I never disputed it'll make the game stronger in SEQ. It'll just screw the Lions for a decade to begin with and take a big chunk of our membership. If you thought the impact of the Suns on our membership numbers was significant, wait until it's another team within Brisbane itself, the impact will be greater because the geographic separation will be shorter.

You can argue the Suns were filling a genuine need for more football in SEQ and a geographic need for a separate city to have its own team. You can't for a second Brisbane team, at least not right now.

Have they though? On field sure, but have they really off?

Yes, they trained in tin sheds for years. And you can't just hand wave away on-field performance. They've been a joke on the field and that contributes significantly to their perception off the field. Their attendance figures were stagnant between 2015 and 2023, even adjusting for Covid. It looks like they've started to turn that around under Hardwick, but the only definite success story about the Suns so far is their academy. If you believe the biggest criteria for off-field success is to create more players at the grassroots and more draftable prospects, the AFL can accomplish that by providing more grassroots funding and setting up and running more academies themselves. It doesn't require another AFL club in Brisbane.

There still are, and they are ignorant to what is actually happening and the strategy. Complaints about costs and confusion with on field success just show they have NFI. We both understand this.

We do indeed. But even if they have NFI, perception still matters in terms of winning a local fanbase. This isn't Victoria, Queenslanders are fairweather fans, especially when it comes to a game that isn't firmly embedded in culture and prominent in the media. The Lions rose and fell and rose again, not just on the ladder but in attendance and membership. Brisbane Roar might be an even better example, had some level of prominence and sold out Lang Park when they were hosting and winning grand finals, but are pretty irrelevant nowadays.

The Lions aren't going anywhere.

Well, actually, we may be off to Carrara or Springfield for up to 5 years, depending if the state government decides to redevelop the Gabba and not build a temporary facility to house games during construction. That's looking like the most likely outcome at this point.

Realistically you would be looking for a ~2030 entry anyway, so we aren't talking about tomorrow. So if the stadium isn't sorted by then, then you probably need the pull of another club to help it get sorted. 22 games is twice the case of 11.

If the stadium isn't sorted by 2030, it won't happen. The state government, regardless of party, doesn't care much about AFL (or even cricket). The current push is only getting any traction because the Olympics will require a new athletics facility anyway, and the Lions have the potential to give it a long term use instead of collecting dust like previous Olympic stadia. If not for that, they'd put in the minimum to stop the Gabba collapsing or looking like a third world stadium, and tell the AFL to be happy with that.

2030 is far too late for anything to change in Olympics planning. Whether the Olympic stadium is suitable for the Lions after the games or not is based on political wrangling now, not in speculation of a second team several years down the track. There is no pull of a second club right now. And the AFL won't promise a second club without a new stadium. Tasmania showed how they'll do things from now on.

At this stage it looks like the new Queensland government might redevelop the Gabba for the Olympics and send us to Carrara for multiple years. We'll likely be disrupted during 2032 itself, too. That's a terrible environment for the Lions to be dealing with new competition in, because of the lack of stability. It'd be much better if it happened in the late 2030s after the club has been able to establish itself at the new stadium for at least a few years.

Look, I am not putting Brisbane 2 above Canberra. I am really hoping for a Canberra team for 20. But I would much rather see a second Brisbane team over a third Perth one.

Wherever there is demand for a team and it won't damage the existing ones badly, can be a good idea for expansion. I think both the Eagles and Dockers are better placed to handle added local competition than the Lions are.