AFL R10

[TheKanga]

Geelong - $1.33
vs.
North Melbourne - $3.15

Line is 20.5

GWS - $4.00
vs.
Richmond - $1.22

Line is 27.5

Collingwood - $1.31
vs.
West Coast - $3.45

Line is 22.5

Port Adelaide - $1.40
vs.
Hawthorn - $2.95

Line is 15.5

Gold Coast - $1.20
vs.
Western Bulldogs - $4.30

Line is 29.5

Carlton - $2.05
vs.
Adelaide - $1.74

Line is 4.5

 

[TheKanga]

Early on i think North H2H or even North 1-39 could value at 3.80, we have won 2 of our last 3 against Geelong.
Although these encounters have been at etihad.
At the Cattery it will be harder however they have a short turn around and are returning from Perth.
Maybe the line would be a safer bet.

GWS at 4.00 SU could be value at home, if you go 1-39 you can get 4.70.
They have a decent headstart as well.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

North's odds are pure stupidity. Would be all over that but giving myself a week off the punt this week after a stinker.

 

[Anzac16]

Can get GWS at $4.50 at Luxbet. Very tempting to jump on early. Expect that the odds will come in towards $3.50 during the week.

North at $3.50 on Luxbet as well. Tempting.

 

[laam]

agree with the north and GWS talk, both are definite value. North are a bit of a bogey side for the cats.

 

[TheKanga]

Very tempting, gonna hold off abit before i commit.
I want this to be a good week for once so will be very cautious and selective.
Was going well on the horses and won on North until i stupidly bet on Geelong last night.


btw Wells is still unlikely to return from injury.

 

[bombers21]

Adelaide looks amazing odds right now

 

[boyOboy]

Planning on just tailing foxy_dal all round for some easy cash

 

[GROTTO]

Planning on just tailing foxy_dal all round for some easy cash

Wouldnt it be easier to just give him your username and password for each book so that he cant enter it for you.

 

[iluvparis]

See the Suns are into even money to make the 8 - I reckon that's a lay. Obviously any injury/suspension to Gazza absolutely kills them and I'm sure they will have the odd slump at some stage during the season. Had a quick look through their fixture and I'll still think they'll come up short of the 12 wins I'll reckon you'll need this year.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Hawks value at $2.90 for sure. Missing key players, I still expect us to bounce back.

GWS at 4's... After watching Richmond last week there is no way anyone could back them, something at the line looks good.

And crows.. Good price

 

[laam]

now b365 has the 1.91 lines out I've got on a few
1.5u north +19.5 @ 1.91
1u GWS +26.5 @ 1.91
2u adelaide-3.5 @ 1.91

 

[TheKanga]

GWS already in to 3.50 on sportsbet, gee that came in quick.

 

[GROTTO]

Hawks value at $2.90 for sure. Missing key players, I still expect us to bounce back.

GWS at 4's... After watching Richmond last week there is no way anyone could back them, something at the line looks good.

And crows.. Good price

Hawks are missing 6 of their top 10 players in

Mitchell
Hodge
Rioli
Gibson
Roughead
Lake

Port are going in almost if not full strength who are in-form and are playing at AO. Expect the minus handicap to move out when Hodge is ruled out.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Hawks amazing value but will wait until late thursday night/early friday.

Adelaide line seems value

Kanagroos is iffy, but i rate them a 45/55 chance so $3ish seems good value.

Richmond at the line will easily dispose of GWS.

 

[bombers21]

If the Hawks are still missing those 6 Hodge, Mitchell, Lake etc then Port Adelaide should win very well and the line (-16.5) looks attractive. I will be waiting until the teams are announced though.

 

[jaymasha]

If the Hawks are still missing those 6 Hodge, Mitchell, Lake etc then Port Adelaide should win very well and the line (-16.5) looks attractive. I will be waiting until the teams are announced though.

the line might drift if you do that. but then again, it may come in, too

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

See the Suns are into even money to make the 8 - I reckon that's a lay. Obviously any injury/suspension to Gazza absolutely kills them and I'm sure they will have the odd slump at some stage during the season. Had a quick look through their fixture and I'll still think they'll come up short of the 12 wins I'll reckon you'll need this year.

I should do this, but as Lenny says, only pussies hedge. Got on the GC for the top 8 in Feb at $4, **** it, let it ride

 

[Lensen]

I should do this, but as Lenny says, only pussies hedge. Got on the GC for the top 8 in Feb at $4, **** it, let it ride

there's nothing wrong with hedging if information changes and the hedge is value as well. it's the "i'm doing a 4 leg multi this weekend and if the first 3 legs win i'm automatically hedging" stuff that is shit

 

[tibor]

Under 168.5 Geelong/North looks alright.

Both teams have been hitting under that more often than not. Stevie J probably out. Both teams are similarly skilled at the moment so should be a tight game.

 

[kickazz]

North are tempting, especially at the line.
Note they did beat Geelong at KP in the pre-season - I know that counts for little but at least there is some familiarity with the ground.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

there's nothing wrong with hedging if information changes and the hedge is value as well. it's the "i'm doing a 4 leg multi this weekend and if the first 3 legs win i'm automatically hedging" stuff that is shit

Yea, agree, was saying it a bit in jest mate, ill be collecting $800 on my GC bet if it gets up so im happy to let it ride anyway. Would be a good collect but not life changing money by any means, the only times I can think of that I've hedged are the last leg of quaddies on the horses when on a heavy collect (5k and over).

 

[GROTTO]

If the Hawks are still missing those 6 Hodge, Mitchell, Lake etc then Port Adelaide should win very well and the line (-16.5) looks attractive. I will be waiting until the teams are announced though.

Hodge will probably most likely be named, even if he isnt going to play. Im sure against the Swans they knew on Thursday night when line ups were announced, that they were not going to play Hodge. It will be interesting if he trains during the week, that will probably be the biggest indicator. Clarko is the kind of coach that will probably see that their next three games at "home" against GWS, Eagles and Carlton are much more winnable than playing the Power at AO.

 

[GROTTO]

North are tempting, especially at the line.
Note they did beat Geelong at KP in the pre-season - I know that counts for little but at least there is some familiarity with the ground.

A lot those pre-season games have played out as you would expect during the season, except when the Clubs ran second string teams. I forgot that in the preseason that the Demons beat the Tigers.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Geelong to beat North (It's at Simonds Stadium , Geelong are hard to beat over there and North's form has been wary)
Collingwood to beat WCE ( Collingwood will come out firing after the loss against us , WCE don't travel well against Collingwood in Melbourne)
Gold Coast to beat Dogs ( Gold Coast are superb at the moment and are starting to make Metricon a fortress)

$2.30 plus 10% (if you are with sportsbet)

I know it's $2.30 but if you put $50 you will double your money. I am quite confident of a win out of this.