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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Round 10
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,776
- 8,930
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Hmm interesting
Any reasons as to why you dont rate Essendon? havnt done much wrong this year have they?
Sydney are now much worse out Sydney then people think (they still win/Draw) but not by as much dominance as people think against very average teams usually.
ROKs role on Watson will be huge but essendons inside game is massive. Watson, Goddard, Hocking, Howlett, Myers, Heppell ect is quite something this year.
Bit of a roughie for most goals in Crows and Dockers, Zac Clarke at $51. Named at full forward, although i'm sure he will spend more time in the ruck anyway but in a low scoring game 2 goals is likely to be a winner/tie. Has kicked 1 goal and 1 point in his 2 games this year and averaged almost a goal a game last year so he could pop up with 2. Small goes at Mzungu $34, Petrenko $17 and Unlisted at $9 in case a backman kicks a couple.
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
I definitely rate Essendon as a team overall, to me they are still a team that will crumble against the power teams though, I really expect Sydney to follow on from last week, to apply relentless pressure, and I don't consider Goddard, Howlett, or Heppell to be great inside mids. I think ROK can stop Watson from being dominant, and I think the supply to the Dons forwards will be infrequent and hurried.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,776
- 8,930
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Thy are all avg over 3 clearances a game. heppell is almost 4 from memory watson only 6 for comparison he positions really well at clearances andhis side step agility is great around congestion. sydney wont come out this week like they did against the piea imo and pies were woefu melbourne wouldve got within 6 goals
Different stages in life and different bankrolls does not affect punting ability.
If I miss my 84.5 and 82.5 lines, I will still be cheering for your 99.5 line!
All the best
Thanks KP, bad luck on the 84.5 and 82.5 lines.
I've pretty much lost my 4-fold combinations now, I had GWS +84.5 as well.
I've got to say, betting my whole bank roll on 1 match is something I will never do again.
Way too stressful. This win wasn't due to my punting ability. I just got lucky.
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
Swans line/Cats -35.5 ish/Port line @5.25ish
Glad i discovered this site to discuss punting but too little too late. Has anybody ever done the unthinkable and pressed the wrong button on a keyboard whilst laying a bet? Thought i'd won the under 149.5 total points scored today only to realise that i'd somehow ended up with over showing in the transaction. No idea how it happened
Always double check the history after you place a bet, if it's incorrect you can ring em up for a void, bl mate.
- Dec 1, 2010
- 4,475
- 1,450
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Mt Buller Demons
Slooooow down Sydney, need you 1-39
Come on bombers, I need an interval lead change! ;-)
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
And i need Sydney -10.5... one of us will be disappointed
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
I would have gone GC +54.5, which I said earlier in the thread. Unfortunately Collingwood and Essendon both wiped men out for the weekend. That wasn't in my plan...
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
I reckon suns have earnt a lot of respect with this effort tonight. And what is with the channel 7 clock counting up? :/
- Dec 1, 2010
- 4,475
- 1,450
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Mt Buller Demons
That last goal by Sydney absolutely killed me
schnoods
Club Legend
Well done, was a close call in the end.
Had a mixed bag this weekend. But one punt tomorrow got my interest on sportsbet.
Supercoach, N Riewoldt vs T Goldstein .I have put a decent sized bet on Goldstein @ $1.95, moreso i think he is better value but also Riewoldt might even be a late out as concussion has knocked him about.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...after-concussion/story-e6frf9jf-1226654613791
TheMcGrathMan
Club Legend
- May 24, 2013
- 2,716
- 2,134
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
How do regular punters view the "First to ** score" markets? Are they reliable, worth punting on etc?
Because I think first to 25 with North Melbourne tomorrow is pretty good value at $1.52. I'm not sure what others view as value but I think North would be heavy favourites to beat St Kilda to 25 points.
North have 8 first quarter wins, St Kilda have two.
Only twice have North's opponents got to 25 in the first quarter (Hawthorn-34 and the Dogs-25) and only once have North failed to get to 25 in the first quarter (Hawthorn-23). Their first quarters are (win/loss first to 25) - North on LHS:
32-23 vs Pies (win)
43-24 vs Cats (win)
26-22 vs Swans (win)
40-8 vs Lions (win)
23-35 vs Hawks (loss)
44-11 vs Power (win)
35-25 vs Dogs (win)
37-20 vs Eagles (win)
28-8 vs Crows (win)
Saints, on the other hand, have these first quarters (win/loss first to 25) - Saints on RHS:
24-13 vs Suns (win, kicked first two goals of 2nd quarter)
29-19 vs Tigers (loss)
0-34 vs Giants (win)
38-20 vs Bombers (loss)
23-21 vs Swans (win, Swans got a point to go to 24 then Saints kicked the first goal of the 2nd)
22-20 vs Pies (win, again got first goal of 2nd quarter)
16-23 vs Blues (win)
16-16 vs Crows (lose)
34-20 v Dogs (lose)
So North 8-1 compared to Saints 5-4. Not only that, but for St Kilda to get first to 25 they have relied on getting there in the 2nd quarter in 4 of their 5 wins, only reaching 25 in the first quarter once. North, as I said above, have only not reached 25 in the first quarter once.
I think North are very likely to get a good start tomorrow and I'm hesitant to bet on the overall outcome, so I think this is a lot safer (and North for the overall win are only $1.25).
Considering that, is it worth it putting say, $20 on? Maybe chuck in Hawthorn first to 25 to make it that bit more valuable (for little risk)? How have others fared in the past with these sorts of bets?
Thanks guys.
Because I think first to 25 with North Melbourne tomorrow is pretty good value at $1.52. I'm not sure what others view as value but I think North would be heavy favourites to beat St Kilda to 25 points.
North have 8 first quarter wins, St Kilda have two.
Only twice have North's opponents got to 25 in the first quarter (Hawthorn-34 and the Dogs-25) and only once have North failed to get to 25 in the first quarter (Hawthorn-23). Their first quarters are (win/loss first to 25) - North on LHS:
32-23 vs Pies (win)
43-24 vs Cats (win)
26-22 vs Swans (win)
40-8 vs Lions (win)
23-35 vs Hawks (loss)
44-11 vs Power (win)
35-25 vs Dogs (win)
37-20 vs Eagles (win)
28-8 vs Crows (win)
Saints, on the other hand, have these first quarters (win/loss first to 25) - Saints on RHS:
24-13 vs Suns (win, kicked first two goals of 2nd quarter)
29-19 vs Tigers (loss)
0-34 vs Giants (win)
38-20 vs Bombers (loss)
23-21 vs Swans (win, Swans got a point to go to 24 then Saints kicked the first goal of the 2nd)
22-20 vs Pies (win, again got first goal of 2nd quarter)
16-23 vs Blues (win)
16-16 vs Crows (lose)
34-20 v Dogs (lose)
So North 8-1 compared to Saints 5-4. Not only that, but for St Kilda to get first to 25 they have relied on getting there in the 2nd quarter in 4 of their 5 wins, only reaching 25 in the first quarter once. North, as I said above, have only not reached 25 in the first quarter once.
I think North are very likely to get a good start tomorrow and I'm hesitant to bet on the overall outcome, so I think this is a lot safer (and North for the overall win are only $1.25).
Considering that, is it worth it putting say, $20 on? Maybe chuck in Hawthorn first to 25 to make it that bit more valuable (for little risk)? How have others fared in the past with these sorts of bets?
Thanks guys.
- Dec 1, 2010
- 4,475
- 1,450
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Mt Buller Demons
More than worth a 20 mate, quite good value, I put Hawks first to 15 and North to win the first quarter in a multi. Paid $1.70
Just had a scan of all the markets available. Has anyone put a large amount on a silly market like total match points odd or even? Or the winner of the coin toss?
Just had a scan of all the markets available. Has anyone put a large amount on a silly market like total match points odd or even? Or the winner of the coin toss?
TheMcGrathMan
Club Legend
- May 24, 2013
- 2,716
- 2,134
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Cheers. I will most likely bet tomorrow (if I sleep and still want to do it, I will). But thanks for the advice.
Am just confused whether I should do it now, because I had the window open to bet on Nathan Vardy for 3+ goals (Sportsbet) and decided not to risk it. Luckily Sportsbet had a money back offer for first goalscorer if a behind was scored first because I would have lost money on Vardy otherwise, which would have been my first bet in 6 months and most likely drove me away from betting again.
- Dec 1, 2010
- 4,475
- 1,450
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Mt Buller Demons
You always see a bet and think yep I should back that but won't. I must do it every single time I go to have a look at odds. If it's only a 20 you should be right, maybe just put it on both teams to win the first quarter instead of first to 15 or whatever. Would be extremely shocked if either team lost the first quarter
