AFL Round 10

[twarby]

For you it is. Its also very difficult to pick 7/8 with margins, he wont get near it again probably for many years. You also make it sound simple to lock in a $10K profit. He would need to have backed the dogs and also the overs for WC and the draw. No way is he getting $10K by hedging.

yeah i shouldn't have said 10k

he easily could have found a few $100 bucks though and got something out of it.

he doesn't seem to phased though and he only lost $5.

going into Sunday i would have thought he would have been more alert of it and keeping a close eye on each match.

i just noticed he included Hawks 39.5+, i actually applaud him now, very good pick

 

[twarby]

i havn't watched the Simpsons for ages, i can't even remember Surly

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Blasphemy!

 

[KardiniaPark]

yeah i shouldn't have said 10k

he easily could have found a few $100 bucks though and got something out of it.

he doesn't seem to phased though and he only lost $5.

going into Sunday i would have thought he would have been more alert of it and keeping a close eye on each match.

i just noticed he included Hawks 39.5+, i actually applaud him now, very good pick

He has said previously that the Hawks match overlaped with the WC game. From memory the hawks were only high 20's in front at that stage? Thats not enough to make me think they were sure things to get the overs.

So lets say he does assume Hawthorn will get the overs and he takes $200 out of his rent money to hedge :

Im not sure what the odds were so im guessing :

West Coast over 39.5 @ $8 x 43 = $344 - Profit $144

Dogs Win @$2.25 x $150 = $337.50 Profit $137.50

Draw @$51 x $7 = $357 Profit $157

Completely not worth it considering :

1. Its not money he can afford to lose.

2. Hawthorn were no good things to get the overs.

3. The payout isnt going to change his life but losing another $200 on top of the $5 probably would affect his life in the negative.

LAWYERED

 

[twarby]

i would have been betting InPlay, i wouldn't have taken the risk with a leg still pending which was lucky to win

baywatch posted a bet on this match
LIVE 2ND Q

ATS - EAGLES -34.5 (x2)

(2.2u @ 1.9 @ Centrebet)

there is your hedge with a 5pt middle

Dogs would have been at good odds also, and he would have only needed to take them to win, which he probably could have waited for.

he could have sat on the draw, as you can take that during the breaks

so yes if he wanted to he could have hedged, i know i would have tried to, and i know most others would have attempted to try something surely?


anyway back to this round

1. MELBOURNE 6.00
2. CARLTON 1.13

1. NORTH MELBOURNE 2.25
2. SYDNEY 1.65

1. FREMANTLE 1.44
2. ST KILDA 2.80

1. GOLD COAST 11.00
2. GEELONG 1.04

1. RICHMOND 1.20
2. PORT ADELAIDE 4.50

1. ADELAIDE 1.38
2. BRISBANE 3.05

1. COLLINGWOOD 1.20
2. WEST COAST 4.50

1. WESTERN BULLDOGS 3.15
2. HAWTHORN 1.35

**** all for h2h betting imo

perhaps Freo/Hawks @ around 2s.. but besides that i think it'll be line betting for me.
WC, Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn should cover the lines they are given

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sydney look massive overs, dont mind the look of the Saints & Lions with the start either. Sydney will be $1.40 by saturday, thats just a ridiculous price.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I'm not sure I can back them after last week's display

 

[Lensen]

Sydney look massive overs, dont mind the look of the Saints & Lions with the start either. Sydney will be $1.40 by saturday, thats just a ridiculous price.

North at Etihad should be favourites IMO. That was the one that stuck out to me

 

[laam]

North at Etihad should be favourites IMO. That was the one that stuck out to me

was just about to post the same thing, thought that was a good price for north. What have sydney done recently? Although you could say the same about north.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I'm not sure I can back them after last week's display

One week doesnt make a season. They are allowed the odd slip up its just the nature of the competition. Hawthorn may very well be a good team again as well but you are definately a 6-9 ranked team IMO. I would have north more 13-16 at their best. Sydney has them covered across every line, of course Petrie as always is a danger but with the limited inside 50's they will get its more than likely he wont have the opportunity to get that many shots on goal.

Seemingly North have gone out of their way to prove just how bad they are at times, they just have nothing to offer...in particular against a strong disciplined unit like Sydney. I think they can win by 10 goals so that $1.65 looks extremely appealing to me.

Fair dinkum Rooster if you dont go to that game expecting a percentage booster you should pack the scarf away for the season

 

[KardiniaPark]

North at Etihad should be favourites IMO. That was the one that stuck out to me

*Not sure if serious*

 

[twarby]

Sydney can get ****ed

 

[Lensen]

*Not sure if serious*

I'm not super confident about them but had it scored as a $1.80/$2.25 game.

Neither are much chop but North are better than most make them out to be given they've had a poor draw. The Lions loss wasn't flash but JB's a pretty big in to deal with.

The Swans are off the boil - belted by the Hawks, unimpressive vs Port (and against a half decent side would have been belted as well), even the Dogs win isn't that impressive given results since

 

[KardiniaPark]

Geez I give north no chance at all. I'm looking forward to trolling you all when the Swannies pull North's pants down

Cmon Twarbz you cant jump off yet, Jump on my wagon!

Does ANYONE like the swans this week?

Im lonely

 

[Nothing]

I think Sydney will win but they are a no bet for me at this stage - lost confidence throwing my money at them.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Get on sportingbet happy hour, only 3-4 mins to go!

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think Sydney will win but they are a no bet for me at this stage - lost confidence throwing my money at them.

Finally!

That makes two, our prescence is growing. I can smell the fear

 

[twarby]

Get on sportingbet happy hour, only 3-4 mins to go!

i want a winner though

 

[KardiniaPark]

i want a winner though

Sydney @$1.65 and Parra 9+/Parra13+

There is two

 

[adii_7]

if i get $7.50+ for melbourne under 39.5, ill go all in

 

[Ron]

lol no idea why people are saying that guys multi is a good effort, the fact he didn't even realise how it was going on the Sunday means his selections didn't have much thought about them.

to not lock in 10k profit is just a stupid error

Yes we all understand your shit doesn't stink, you remind us constantly. Now can you just **** off and stop shitting up every thread on this board.

 

[twarby]

Yes we all understand your shit doesn't stink, you remind us constantly. Now can you just **** off and stop shitting up every thread on this board.

why should i?
i might be negative towards some people on here, but i am pretty sure i provide as much quality in discussion as anyone else.

if you makes you upset move to a church forum

 

[Ron]

why should i?
i might be negative towards some people on here, but i am pretty sure i provide as much quality in discussion as anyone else.

if you makes you upset move to a church forum

You are negative towards everyone, and telling people how wrong they are isn't quality discussion.

Just good to finally see most people on here are realising what a massive ****wit you are.

 

[5 Bucks]

Settle down children.

 

[twarby]

You are negative towards everyone, and telling people how wrong they are isn't quality discussion.

Just good to finally see most people on here are realising what a massive ****wit you are.

upset are ya?

i provide more betting discussion on here than you do, the board turned to shit late last year, i think you will find that is when i started not worrying anymore about others on here.

share your thoughts on round 10 of the AFL, that is what this thread is for.