AFL Round 14

[KardiniaPark]

You've got it all wrong, it's his confidence which is suddenly going to improve. He's playing like shit on one leg in a basket case of a team, and getting caned by the media left, right and centre, so as a result he's going to be full of confidence going into round 15 against the Roos.

I'll be sitting at home pressing refresh until the odds show up. Sorry boss cant come in again!

 

[Mudeo]

Locks for the week:

Carlton Under 39.5
North -15.5

will be using these 2 in 90% of multis

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

The Age has the Gold Coast/Bulldogs odds the wrong way around:
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-match-preview/gold-coast-v-western-bulldogs-20110620-1gax9.html
I almost wet myself when I saw the dogs at $5!

 

[KardiniaPark]

The Age has the Gold Coast/Bulldogs odds the wrong way around:
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-match-preview/gold-coast-v-western-bulldogs-20110620-1gax9.html
I almost wet myself when I saw the dogs at $5!

They must have printed the 2013 edition early

 

[DanA]

I put $200 on Adelaide @ 15 (Betfair).

Geelong will probably have Bartel, Kelly, Milburn, Hunt, Stokes and Selwood missing from their best 22. And rumours that a few others need a rest (one of which is Ottens).

If the team sheet comes out like I think it will odds will drop to $5 or below very quickly I reckon.

 

[blue_boys]

Geelong with half of their best 22 would still beat Adelaide at Skilled quite easily

 

[KardiniaPark]

I put $200 on Adelaide @ 15 (Betfair).

Geelong will probably have Bartel, Kelly, Milburn, Hunt, Stokes and Selwood missing from their best 22. And rumours that a few others need a rest (one of which is Ottens).

If the team sheet comes out like I think it will odds will drop to $5 or below very quickly I reckon.

I could understand backing Adelaide with a 50+ start but outright they are no chance.

 

[DanA]

Geelong with half of their best 22 would still beat Adelaide at Skilled quite easily

We'll find out this weekend because I'm expecting 8 changes + selwood to be out.

Not suggesting Adelaide are favorites just that odds should be closer to $5 than $15.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Who are the 9 changes out of interest?

 

[yamahamoto]

early bet
Essendon +14.5
Collingwood -33.5
Adelaide +50.5
Freo h2h
$100 x 7.45 = $745 (hopefully)

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Carlton -15.5
Collingwood -24.5
Fremantle -15.5
Melbourne 1Q H2H
Adelaide +50.5

$100 @ $12.21

 

[DanA]

Who are the 9 changes out of interest?

Selwood Plus:
Bartel: Concussion
Hunt: Suspension
Stokes: Suspension
Kelly: Ankle
Milburn: Achilies
Duncan: neck
Ottens: on going knee issue
Wojcinski: calf

 

[uptheblues]

Richmond -2.5
Carlton H2H
Hawks H2H
Fremantle H2H
Collingwood H2H
Kangaroos H2H
@ 6.83

 

[duncs]

Sandilands a possible return for Freo, Ballantyne also possible along with Silvagni and Hayden. Would suspect that a few of these guys included would see the line go out, Sandilands being the main one that would affect it. Have taken the Dockers 1st quarter line at Sportsbet, expect to see them come out fired up at home a la the Essendon game and should cover the -7.5 for first quarter. After that, who knows...

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Agreed. I'm going to take them -14.5 and -24.5 in a couple of multis.

Clarke out

McPharlin a great matchup for Brown

Should also see Bradley for Freo back in

Still no Adcock and Merrett for Brisbane

 

[Vince Masuka]

Essendon
Richmond
Collingwood
Geelong all 1-39
1 unit @ 55.85

Melbourne more behinds
5 units @ 2.90

Adelaide more behinds
5 units @ 2.38

Port more behinds
5 units @ 2.55

Fremantle Highest scoring team
1.5 units @ 8.00

 

[TurboBreuster]

Sandilands a possible return for Freo, Ballantyne also possible along with Silvagni and Hayden. Would suspect that a few of these guys included would see the line go out, Sandilands being the main one that would affect it. Have taken the Dockers 1st quarter line at Sportsbet, expect to see them come out fired up at home a la the Essendon game and should cover the -7.5 for first quarter. After that, who knows...

I'd be careful with that bet. If their is one quarter that the lions win it will most likely be the first. You'd be surprised by their 1q record for the season.

 

[TurboBreuster]

My plays:
1.5U FREO -31.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
I want to get on early as I think that the line will blow out with the possible returns.

1U SYD 1Q +8.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
I do think that the Pies will win this game easily but I realy like this bet. They are coming off the bye and should take at least 20 minutes to get going. Sydney should also come out strong early as they will want to prove the whole footy world wrong in that they can't compete with the teams above them.

0.8U WCE 1Q +6.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Blues struggled early against the Power and the Swans. The Eagles have also started very well on the road in every game this season except v the pies. Like the above bet I like the Blues to win pretty easy and will most likely back them ats or in-play ats.

 

[twarby]

without looking i really like the look of that sydney 1Q bet

 

[Dingster]

I'd be careful with that bet. If their is one quarter that the lions win it will most likely be the first. You'd be surprised by their 1q record for the season.

If you think that, then Bris/Freo/Freo/Freo paying $9 might appeal.

 

[publicenemyk2]

haw/ess eith team <24.5 2.00
melb line (-3.5) 2.00
syd line (+33.5) 1.91
freo >39.5 2.15
geel 1-39 2.75
carl 1-39 2.20

total 99.37

 

[getthefooty]

Hawks H2H (1.58)
North -13.5 (1.91)
Richmond -3.5 (2)
@6.04

 

[FromDaics2Dids]

Early one:

Essendon +11.5
Melbourne H2H
Collingwood -33.5
Adelaide + 48.5 @ $13 /1 x $100

Had a good collect last week Nth / Geelong -21.5

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

Multi 1:

SANTOS FC H2H
CLUB DE GIMNASIA Y ESGRIMA LA PLATA or Draw
HAWTHORN - Head to Head
WESTERN BULLDOGS - Head to Head
MELBOURNE - Head to Head
COLLINGWOOD - Head to Head
FREMANTLE - Head to Head

1u @ 7.84


Multi 2:

WESTERN BULLDOGS (Handicap -33.5)
MELBOURNE (Handicap +24.5)
NORTH MELBOURNE - Head to Head
HAWTHORN (Handicap -15.5) - Line
WEST COAST | More Goals Than Behinds

1u @ 14.53

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

WEST COAST | More Goals Than Behinds

How much is this paying? Would love to fade it, West Coasts accuracy has been woeful this season