AFL round 3

[The Prosecutor]

As posted in another thread, I'm having a small go at a multi this week.

Collingwood +30.5 @ 1.20
Melbourne +40.5 @ 1.41
Port Adelaide +30.5 @ 1.38
Fremantle -49.5 @ 2.10
Essendon -58.5 @ 1.92
Western Bulldogs +30.5 @ 1.29
Hawthorn -17.5 @ 1.51
Geelong -9.5 @ 1.31

@ $24.02

 

[CamTinley]

In fairness, people said the same to me when I backed Jack for the Coleman at $81 after about round 8 2010, and when I backed Richo ew for the Brownlow at $101 and $21 in 2008.

Both of those seemed silly to others at the time but sometimes intimate knowledge of how a player is performing can be beneficial (as opposed to biased). Obviously a lot of the time it doesn't pay off, but all you have to do is pull off 2-3 in your lifetime to come out on top if you are being semi realistic with your picks.

I did exactly the same thing. I couldn't believe the abuse I got for putting that bet on. It seemed pretty realistic to me.

 

[Swan4Brownlow]

Hawks H2H * Tigers H2H * Essendon 40+ @ $2. Seems a great way to double your money to me

 

[carn tigez]

I did exactly the same thing. I couldn't believe the abuse I got for putting that bet on. It seemed pretty realistic to me.

I think he was third with 30 odd goals at the time and had kicked 3 bags in a row when I put it on. A couple of weeks after that he kicked 10 vs West Coast and I was laughing

 

[HurlsMeister18]

I'm pretty happy I got on the Tigers straight away yesterday at $1.30, already into $1.25 and will probably start around the $1.15 mark.

 

[PIESPREMIERS2010]

Hawks H2H * Tigers H2H * Essendon 40+ @ $2. Seems a great way to double your money to me

Not so sold on Eseendon as most people this week. GC have been average in their first 2 weeks, but get Bock and Stanley, two bigger bodies, back this week. They are at home, and lets not forget that GCS were not as bad as the first 2 games have indicated, last year.

Bock in particular up forward will be a huge in, just to straighten them up and give their talented youngsters a contest to work around.

Not backing GC by any stretch, just prefer to leave this game alone.

 

[Veroldin]

why are people taking the richmond price?

 

[HurlsMeister18]

why are people taking the richmond price?

because Melbourne are pathetic this year, Richmonds V Melbourne should be the price that Freo V Brisbane is. Richmond were ok against both Carlton and Collingwood and if they kicked straight against Collingwood they could have rolled them and they also finished full of run. Richmond easily by 8 goals.

 

[Veroldin]

But...it's richmond....and it's 1.30.....

 

[KardiniaPark]

But...it's richmond....and it's 1.30.....

Not anymore

 

[True North]

Richmond should be $1.15 and -34.5

If Moloney doesn't come up Richmond -59.5 $5.00 is a great bet.

There is no Sylvia to kick 5 this time around.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest this will be a contest, not even Richmond can find a way to lose this*

* It is Richmond

 

[CamTinley]

I think he was third with 30 odd goals at the time and had kicked 3 bags in a row when I put it on. A couple of weeks after that he kicked 10 vs West Coast and I was laughing

That day he kicked 10 was the highlight of my betting life. I won $24,000 for a bet I put on 10 minutes before bouncedown of the Friday night game. Everyone on front of him was a crock ... and you guessed it, they all got injured.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Not anymore

Glad I got on them last night...

 

[TigesArmy]

I always stay away from tigers matches as I always seem to bet with my heart but this week im loving them against the dees. Play of the week at -24.5. Does anyone know if West Coast are resting players this week, liking the 100 point thrashing

 

[quazza6]

Peoples thoughts on this multi:

Carlton line +15.5 $1.42
Richmond line -25.5 $1.91
Essendon over 24.5 $1.17
West coast Half time line -57.5 $2.00*
@6.35
*Thinking bout just holding off till west coast puts their team out.

 

[Tonche]

All over the Dees this week.

Line, win, +40 all way overs IMO.

Round 1 - Jimmy's funeral, heavy emotional letdown.
Round 2 - WC at Subi, not the first team to get pumped over there.

Last year showed the gap between Melbourne's best and worst was amongst the greatest of any team. If they come out 'on' and get a sniff, people taking the Tiges at short odds could be in for a nasty surprise...

 

[CamTinley]

All over the Dees this week.

Line, win, +40 all way overs IMO.

Round 1 - Jimmy's funeral, heavy emotional letdown.
Round 2 - WC at Subi, not the first team to get pumped over there.

Last year showed the gap between Melbourne's best and worst was amongst the greatest of any team. If they come out 'on' and get a sniff, people taking the Tiges at short odds could be in for a nasty surprise...

Richmond are no sure thing. There is huge pressure on them just like there was in Round 1 v Carlton.

 

[Gets!]

have turned $10 into $540 so far this year.

Mind you had $10 on Crows to win NAB cup at 21/1 and also had an incredibly lucky $10 bet on Kieren Jack to kick first goal in round 1 against GWS paying $26.

Won a few other bets along the way as well was losing a few but sitting at $540 at the moment.

Collingwood look like fantastic value to me this round. $2.00 for a side of that quality is nice. Carlton have only played Richmond and Brisbane so far.

Will assess after friday night.

 

[carn tigez]

Richmond are no sure thing. There is huge pressure on them just like there was in Round 1 v Carlton.

2nd premiership favourites Carlton (lol), who have now started favourites against Collingwood.

People have looked down on us way too much after round 1, we were competitive til the last quarter when their experience and composure blew us away. We didn't choke because of the pressure ala 2009 as many are suggesting.

 

[KP78]

All over the Dees this week.

Line, win, +40 all way overs IMO.

Round 1 - Jimmy's funeral, heavy emotional letdown.
Round 2 - WC at Subi, not the first team to get pumped over there.

Last year showed the gap between Melbourne's best and worst was amongst the greatest of any team. If they come out 'on' and get a sniff, people taking the Tiges at short odds could be in for a nasty surprise...

I think you are completely correct in your final paragraph. I do think Melbourne have looked very poor so far but they are definitely capable of stinging a team like Richmond who even though they have been very competitive against two strong teams, at 1.30/1.25, there just seems to be much better options this week. Richmond should get the win (and the line) but the risk/reward is not there for me given the unpredictability of Melbourne and I am going nowhere near that game.

 

[KP78]

2nd premiership favourites Carlton (lol), who have now started favourites against Collingwood.

People have looked down on us way too much after round 1, we were competitive til the last quarter when their experience and composure blew us away. We didn't choke because of the pressure ala 2009 as many are suggesting.

I don't think it was a choke at all, and I am not sure people are looking down on Richmond, moreso that the best and worst of Richmond and the best of worst of Melbourne do overlap massively, and at 1.30/1.25 the safety or risk/reward isn't there. (for some, to others on the Tiges, good luck!)

 

[KP78]

have turned $10 into $540 so far this year.

Mind you had $10 on Crows to win NAB cup at 21/1 and also had an incredibly lucky $10 bet on Kieren Jack to kick first goal in round 1 against GWS paying $26.

Won a few other bets along the way as well was losing a few but sitting at $540 at the moment.

Collingwood look like fantastic value to me this round. $2.00 for a side of that quality is nice. Carlton have only played Richmond and Brisbane so far.

Will assess after friday night.

I like Collingwood also this week (and I think you can find better odds) at that price. I definitely rate Carlton, but I am willing to risk them against a proven team they haven't beaten in the last 5? outings who are regaining players and will be determined to not go 1-2. Wins against Richmond and Brisbane where they played some pretty average footy in patches is not enough for me although if they knock off Collingwood Friday night (depending on the fashion of the victory) I will be a believer.

 

[carn tigez]

I don't think it was a choke at all, and I am not sure people are looking down on Richmond, moreso that the best and worst of Richmond and the best of worst of Melbourne do overlap massively, and at 1.30/1.25 the safety or risk/reward isn't there. (for some, to others on the Tiges, good luck!)

Look I agree 100% that this game isn't worth betting on, I'm not confident either, just wanted to clarify that those saying they 'fell for the hype, same old Richmond, etc' are misguided in their views.

 

[Keystone agony]

My bet for the week

Ess over 15.5
North +61.5
Hawks
WBD +34.5
Port +39.5
Richmond
Fremantle -20.5

Decided to bet big this week and try go safe. Was tempted to include Pies in the multi.

 

[infinity303]

Richmond are no sure thing. There is huge pressure on them just like there was in Round 1 v Carlton.

I completely agree. I'm not going anywhere near this game. It won't surprise me if Melb get up or at least give them a massive scare. Then again they may get another flogging.

BUT It is Richmond.

I like...

Collingwood $2.00
Port +24.5 $1.58
Freo Over 24.5 $1.33
Essendon Over 24.5 $1.17

@ $4.92

Hoping for better pies odds later this week as more people lap up the blues hype.

I got them @ $2.15 H2H on betfair.