AFL round 3

[Probitas_]

My bet for the week

Ess over 15.5
North +61.5
Hawks
WBD +34.5
Port +39.5
Richmond
Fremantle -20.5

Decided to bet big this week and try go safe. Was tempted to include Pies in the multi.

What price did you get on this? I like the looks of it, though I'll be staying clear of the Saints/Dogs match myself.

 

[infinity303]

My bet for the week

Ess over 15.5
North +61.5
Hawks
WBD +34.5
Port +39.5
Richmond
Fremantle -20.5

Decided to bet big this week and try go safe. Was tempted to include Pies in the multi.

I like your North and WBD bets. May add those to my multi and decrease my risk with Port from +24.5 to something a bit longer.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

My bet for the week

Ess over 15.5
North +61.5
Hawks
WBD +34.5
Port +39.5
Richmond
Fremantle -20.5

Decided to bet big this week and try go safe. Was tempted to include Pies in the multi.

I thought you liked Port this week

 

[Moses01]

Leg 1 - Carlton +31.5 @ 1.20
Leg 2 - Richmond Over 15.5 Points @ 1.54
Leg 3 - (25+) Fremantle @ $1.33
Leg 4 - (40+) Essendon $1.38
Leg 5 - (Line (2.0)) -109.5 West Coast @ $2.00
Leg 6 - Hawthorn @ 1.18
Leg 7 - Geelong Over 15.5 Points @ 1.40

1u @ $11

 

[twarby]

My bet for the week

Ess over 15.5
North +61.5
Hawks
WBD +34.5
Port +39.5
Richmond
Fremantle -20.5

Decided to bet big this week and try go safe. Was tempted to include Pies in the multi.

you use way too many legs for what seems like your only type of betting on afl

 

[Davedinkum]

My multi this week

Collingwoods + 23.5 @ $1.33
Port Adelaide + 35.5 @ $1.29
Brisbane + 40.5 @ $2.02
Bulldogs + 30.5 @ $1.35
Geelong - 4.5 @ $1.24
Adelaide + 39.5 @ $1.54

Total = $8.93

Pretty confident in this only worry is Collingwood vs Carlton

 

[wce_dyl]

Richmond 25+ @ 1.88
Sydney (line -17.5) @ 2.00
Essendon 40 + @ 1.32
Hawthorn 25+ @ 1.72
Geelong 25+ @ 1.65

Paying 14.73 with sporting bet, with a 25% bonus if it wins.

Not overly confident but it seems realistic enough to drop a $20 on.

 

[Keystone agony]

What price did you get on this? I like the looks of it, though I'll be staying clear of the Saints/Dogs match myself.

It paid $4.50 or something

Yeh i just see the most value in the dogs in the entire betting this week.

you use way too many legs for what seems like your only type of betting on afl

Each to their own. If it works, it works. I will also maybe put a shorter bet on for what i think will happen eg: dogs win, port 1-39 along with those other ones i already have. Maybe bring North in at +40.5 aswell. Maybe also freo -(40-60).

Im not one to talk down everyone else and not place a bet on the line and when i do i get beaten, but come crawling back.

I thought you liked Port this week

I try and play safe Hurls. I actually think i will lean to tipping Sydney this week but still think Port are every chance. The reason i went so high was because they are paying over in my eyes and also because of Sydneys recent dominance over port and some solid wins they have had. Gray in this week is a big plus, also expect Renouf to play. Mumford still in doubt. Right now im not sure why way i will tip i just talked myself into Port again.

 

[Lensen]

Round 1 H2H: +4.8 units
Round 2 H2H: -1.4 units

Round 3:

1 unit Melbourne @ $4.00 (Sportsbet) - more a knock on Richmond at the price than any great confidence in Melbourne. I do expect Richmond to win but happy to have a crack at the odds

1 unit Port Adelaide @ $2.77 (Betchoice) - Swans deserved favourites but interstate and against a much improved Port side I think they're a little to light on in the betting so Port offer some value here.

0.5 units Gold Coast @ $13 (Luxbet) - seems a silly price despite GC's poor form thus far. Despite being 2-0 I don't rate Essendon that highly and Bock and Stanley are massive ins for the light on Suns

1 unit Bulldogs @ $2.75 (TAB) - Bulldogs form isn't that bad, competitive at times vs West Coast and then pretty good against the Crows over there. Should be closer to 50/50 for mine

1 unit Adelaide @ $4.97 (Betfair) - Got to be a massive letdown for the Hawks this week, and I fear what Walker/Tippett can do if they get a reasonable amount of delivery. Again, a value bet here on a team that is IMO overs

 

[Keystone agony]

How much is a unit for everyone? $1 or 100 000

Edit: Great point about the crows with those big 2 forwards and how the hawks struggled to contain pods and hawkins last week

 

[Lensen]

How much is a unit for everyone? $1 or 100 000

Edit: Great point about the crows with those big 2 forwards and how the hawks struggled to contain pods and hawkins last week

1% of your bankroll

(although my most goals units are .5% of my bankroll, makes it easier to keep track)

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Collingwood H2H into Swans -14.5

Solid little multi for mine.

 

[demon_fanatic]

loving the brisbane +45.5 and might even have a nibble at 7.50 outright.. Brown back which alone adds 3-4 goals in terms of leadership and they walk taller.. also drummond.... freo have been known to sleep through games so the 45.5 start is looking nice

also think Carlton beat pies by 3-6 goals and announce themselves as real... will be getting on them...

 

[Holy Foley!]

Richmond definitely not a certainty this week. I think Richmond 1-19 @ $4.75 is great value.

But to play it safe;

Richmond <39.5 @ $2.25
Sydney -15.5 @ $1.95
Bulldogs +14.5 @ $1.90

= $8.12

 

[KP78]

loving the brisbane +45.5 and might even have a nibble at 7.50 outright.. Brown back which alone adds 3-4 goals in terms of leadership and they walk taller.. also drummond.... freo have been known to sleep through games so the 45.5 start is looking nice

also think Carlton beat pies by 3-6 goals and announce themselves as real... will be getting on them...

I like your line on the first bet but I think Lyon will show plenty of footage from the Sydney game of how much lapses can cost you. Barlow in the middle makes a huge difference also and at home they are going to be tough. I think that line actually looks close.

So interested for the Friday night game, I think the Pies but you are right, if Carlton win by 3-6 goals they will have announced themselves as a serious contender - should be a great game!

 

[Butler]

Seeing that i don't have a whole heap to do atm i will write up my thoughts on a game or two. Will start with Friday nights game.

Carlton v Collingwood
Carlton have been impressive against lower ranked teams in their first 2 matches this year but it was the same last year. They won the games they should have but didn't beat a top 4 team (came close). It's a really big game for them and they will be out to prove that they are a top 4 team. Jamison and Duigan are big inclusions and much needed against Collingwoods forwards.

Collingwood's form has been hard to judge imo. Last week they either took their foot off the pedal or ran out of legs rather than blowing Richmond away. I still believe their injury interrupted preseason might be having more of an affect on them than people think.

In their last two meetings Collingwood have won by 28 and 19 points. Heath Shaw was BOG in the first but didn't play in the second. It will be interesting to see how far up the ground he plays. I found it interesting that Murphy was relatively quiet in both of those matches considering Collingwood don't tag. I think he has really kicked it up a gear this year and is in for a big game.

Something that has impressed me with Carlton over the first 2 rounds is the form of Hampson, Kreuzer and Waite. They have been taking some strong grabs and giving Carlton something to bomb it long too. With Betts and Garlett lurking at their feet its a dangerous forward line.

In summary, i think between the improvement in Carlton and the preseason Collingwood has had Carlton are closing the gap but i can't back them with confidence without them getting a win against a top 4 side first. I believe this game will most likely be down to the wire. Should be good to watch.

Also Sportsbet are offering money back if your team loses by less than 13 on this match.

 

[reidfactor]

Round 1 H2H: +4.8 units
Round 2 H2H: -1.4 units

Round 3:

1 unit Melbourne @ $4.00 (Sportsbet) - more a knock on Richmond at the price than any great confidence in Melbourne. I do expect Richmond to win but happy to have a crack at the odds

1 unit Port Adelaide @ $2.77 (Betchoice) - Swans deserved favourites but interstate and against a much improved Port side I think they're a little to light on in the betting so Port offer some value here.

0.5 units Gold Coast @ $13 (Luxbet) - seems a silly price despite GC's poor form thus far. Despite being 2-0 I don't rate Essendon that highly and Bock and Stanley are massive ins for the light on Suns

1 unit Bulldogs @ $2.75 (TAB) - Bulldogs form isn't that bad, competitive at times vs West Coast and then pretty good against the Crows over there. Should be closer to 50/50 for mine

1 unit Adelaide @ $4.97 (Betfair) - Got to be a massive letdown for the Hawks this week, and I fear what Walker/Tippett can do if they get a reasonable amount of delivery. Again, a value bet here on a team that is IMO overs

everything alright lenny, some strange betting here.. lol

 

[HurlsMeister18]

Round 1 H2H: +4.8 units
Round 2 H2H: -1.4 units

Round 3:

1 unit Melbourne @ $4.00 (Sportsbet) - more a knock on Richmond at the price than any great confidence in Melbourne. I do expect Richmond to win but happy to have a crack at the odds

1 unit Port Adelaide @ $2.77 (Betchoice) - Swans deserved favourites but interstate and against a much improved Port side I think they're a little to light on in the betting so Port offer some value here.

0.5 units Gold Coast @ $13 (Luxbet) - seems a silly price despite GC's poor form thus far. Despite being 2-0 I don't rate Essendon that highly and Bock and Stanley are massive ins for the light on Suns

1 unit Bulldogs @ $2.75 (TAB) - Bulldogs form isn't that bad, competitive at times vs West Coast and then pretty good against the Crows over there. Should be closer to 50/50 for mine

1 unit Adelaide @ $4.97 (Betfair) - Got to be a massive letdown for the Hawks this week, and I fear what Walker/Tippett can do if they get a reasonable amount of delivery. Again, a value bet here on a team that is IMO overs

You might as well go the whole hog and plonk some on GWS while your at it LOL

 

[Donkson]

lol lenny y u not bet 6 leg multi all faves lmaooo ez mony

 

[Moses01]

from memory Lenny does ok betting like this

 

[KardiniaPark]

from memory Lenny does ok betting like this

He needs to, to pay for his MGS Betts! (see what I did there, yeah you did)

 

[reidfactor]

from memory Lenny does ok betting like this

maybe if he took the headstarts he might do ok... but none of those bets are realistic chances imo... but good luck ya never know


well maybe the bulldogs could upset the saints... maybe

 

[KP78]

Round 1 H2H: +4.8 units
Round 2 H2H: -1.4 units

Round 3:

1 unit Melbourne @ $4.00 (Sportsbet) - more a knock on Richmond at the price than any great confidence in Melbourne. I do expect Richmond to win but happy to have a crack at the odds

1 unit Port Adelaide @ $2.77 (Betchoice) - Swans deserved favourites but interstate and against a much improved Port side I think they're a little to light on in the betting so Port offer some value here.

0.5 units Gold Coast @ $13 (Luxbet) - seems a silly price despite GC's poor form thus far. Despite being 2-0 I don't rate Essendon that highly and Bock and Stanley are massive ins for the light on Suns

1 unit Bulldogs @ $2.75 (TAB) - Bulldogs form isn't that bad, competitive at times vs West Coast and then pretty good against the Crows over there. Should be closer to 50/50 for mine

1 unit Adelaide @ $4.97 (Betfair) - Got to be a massive letdown for the Hawks this week, and I fear what Walker/Tippett can do if they get a reasonable amount of delivery. Again, a value bet here on a team that is IMO overs

There is usually at least one upset per round so I don't mind where you are at on this one Lenny. Unconventional, not for me but it really could pay off handsomely I guess. Much success at this style?

 

[X_box_X]

The Event: Place a minimum $10 bet on the head-to-head market and if your team wins by 30 points or more, we'll credit you a 20% bonus.

Does this mean if you put $100 on a team paying $2.00 and they win by five goals, will Sportingbet give you a return of $240, or will they give you a return of $200 plus a $40 bonus bet?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I'd dare say it'd go into your bonus balance.