AFL round 3

[Donkson]

it would be a $20 bonus.

 

[X_box_X]

West Coast 1-39 now out to $21

I wouldn't expect it to happen, but you're getting some good value odds there.

 

[X_box_X]

it would be a $20 bonus.

Thanks.

 

[The_Doctor]

Does anyone think Sheedy will flood the back line right from the first bounce just to ensure it doesnt get too ugly too early?

 

[KP78]

Does anyone think Sheedy will flood the back line right from the first bounce just to ensure it doesnt get too ugly too early?

I am sure he will at some stage, but he is smart enough to know that will barely help. All it will create is a huge number of inside 50's and WC with strong bodies will dominate them up forward. There really isn't a lot he can do to change the result, even points wise. I think it all depends on how WC approach the game, if they turn up and consider it a bye they will win by 12-15 goals, if they turn up to boost percentage, oh boy.

 

[badabing19]

Thinking of ... $20 free bet on pies, freo, saints, Geelong all under 39.5 @ $38. Any thoughts?

 

[infinity303]

Thinking of ... $20 free bet on pies, freo, saints, Geelong all under 39.5 @ $38. Any thoughts?

I love that bet. My only concern would be freo. I think they have the potential to blow brisbane out of the water at home.

Actually a very tasty looking multi....

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Look I agree 100% that this game isn't worth betting on, I'm not confident either, just wanted to clarify that those saying they 'fell for the hype, same old Richmond, etc' are misguided in their views.

IMO Tigers will win this one, Demons losses in Rnds 1 & 2 had nothing to do with Jimmy's funeral that week or WCE smashing sides in the west. They (the Demons) are still learning their new game plan hence likely to be uncompetitive against most sides this season. Add to this their injury list - Jurrah, Sylvia, Moloney (test). By comparison, the Tigers are into their 3rd season now with coach & game plan and with a healthier list (King OUT). This should translate into a win.

Worth betting on.

 

[Keystone agony]

Richmond defensily are pretty damn good now and they have those freak goal kicking offensive players like Riewoldt and Martin. They need more from Nahas, Maric (this week) and Vickery to really become a very good side and their tall backs are not that great besides Rance.

I actually dont mind Richmond -66.5 vs Melbourne paying $6.20

I might throw in Richmond -40 in a higher odd multi.

The reason im confident on the tigers is because they have lost 2 games and yet to have a win. They wont just be playing for the win they will be wanting to put the sword to a side considered to be raising at the same rate in years gone past by the media and general footy world. They have an opportunity to really make melbourne suffer now.

If you look at the two losses in 2010 Rich vs Melbourne. Round 4 i think people expected Melbourne to win, Richmond were just so out of form. Not sure Melbourne were too much better. The other time In round 19 (2010) Richmond just came off a good win against Adelaide (albeit not that great).

The only reason i can see Melbourne winning is if Richmond think they have had 2 successful weeks by having "brave losses" to Carlton and collingwood. I think Hardwick has kicked that out of them after 3 years.

 

[demon_fanatic]

i am contemplating north as great value too.... they are way overdue to get a big scalp and i think they are ever improving and geelong may well be very tired after an emotional win.. if north can jump them early they may be able to hang on....

anyone else like north... i think they cover the 30 line easy.... be a close game

 

[iluvparis]

Richmond defensily are pretty damn good now and they have those freak goal kicking offensive players like Riewoldt and Martin. They need more from Nahas, Maric (this week) and Vickery to really become a very good side and their tall backs are not that great besides Rance.

Can't agree with this - if the Tigers midfield doesn't win the ball then there defence gets absolutely shredded. I don't rate their backline at all. They gave up a ton of cheap goals against the Blue.

Having said that they should easily account for Melbourne this week.

 

[denitofinito]

There is usually at least one upset per round so I don't mind where you are at on this one Lenny. Unconventional, not for me but it really could pay off handsomely I guess. Much success at this style?

This value betting "style" must be a new concept to some people. Imo melbourne and dogs are good value at the prices he quoted.

 

[DerpWerls]

Rich 1-39 ($2.20)
Freo 25+ ($1.33)
Hawks 25+ ($1.72)

$5.03

 

[Lensen]

maybe if he took the headstarts he might do ok... but none of those bets are realistic chances imo... but good luck ya never know


well maybe the bulldogs could upset the saints... maybe

define "realistic chances"

it's a percentages game, no side is 100% guaranteed to win a game - WC are probably 99.99% likely but there's a chance GWS could win if a number of unlikely situations all lined up

with that in mind it's an assessment of what I believe the percentage chancese of a team winning to be. in all of those cases, I believe the likelihoods to be less than 50% (and in GC's case less than 25%) however believe the likelihoods are greater than the odds suggest

if you consider none of them "realistic chances" then depending on what % chance you define as "realistic" I would expect you'd take the other side at short odds then?

 

[reidfactor]

define "realistic chances"

it's a percentages game, no side is 100% guaranteed to win a game - WC are probably 99.99% likely but there's a chance GWS could win if a number of unlikely situations all lined up

with that in mind it's an assessment of what I believe the percentage chancese of a team winning to be. in all of those cases, I believe the likelihoods to be less than 50% (and in GC's case less than 25%) however believe the likelihoods are greater than the odds suggest

if you consider none of them "realistic chances" then depending on what % chance you define as "realistic" I would expect you'd take the other side at short odds then?

yes i would take the favourite lines if they are within reason, or perhaps the under or over 39's..

i see what you mean that they are a chance mathmatically of upsetting the favs, i just look at exposed form and who they played last week..

for example- melbourne coming back from the perth heat to play a hungry tigers team close to a win, i rate melbourne no chance in hell. i mean the tigers got within 21 points of the pies without riewoldt or vickory kicking a goal.. that wont happen again imo..

the safe bet here is tigers 15+ @ 1.54 sportingbet, might be better elsewhere i havent looked yet...

 

[Lensen]

yes i would take the favourite lines if they are within reason, or perhaps the under or over 39's..

i see what you mean that they are a chance mathmatically of upsetting the favs, i just look at exposed form and who they played last week..

for example- melbourne coming back from the perth heat to play a hungry tigers team close to a win, i rate melbourne no chance in hell. i mean the tigers got within 21 points of the pies without riewoldt or vickory kicking a goal.. that wont happen again imo..

the safe bet here is tigers 15+ @ 1.54 sportingbet, might be better elsewhere i havent looked yet...

you rate richmond a 100% chance of winning a game against anyone?

 

[X_box_X]

Rich 1-39 ($2.20)
Freo 25+ ($1.33)
Hawks 25+ ($1.72)

$5.03

Be very wary.

 

[X_box_X]

i am contemplating north as great value too.... they are way overdue to get a big scalp and i think they are ever improving and geelong may well be very tired after an emotional win.. if north can jump them early they may be able to hang on....

anyone else like north... i think they cover the 30 line easy.... be a close game

Not sure if they cover the line easily, but I think it's a solid bet. I'll probably take them at their line at about odds of $1.40-$1.50... whatever that line is, maybe 39.5-41.5?

Geelong had a much tougher game and have one day less to recover. Added to that, they traveled back from Perth the previous week.

Having said that, Geelong are the greatest team of all, they have an amazing team on and off the field. They tend to always get themselves up for games. Betting against them always comes with a risk.

A plus for North is they get Ziebell back.

 

[reidfactor]

you rate richmond a 100% chance of winning a game against anyone?

no just melbourne this week... if im wrong i'll fess up that im a mug.... what have you seen in melbourne to think they have any hope

 

[reidfactor]

wow north +31.5 against the cats and its not in geelong....

get in early this is the bet of the round imo

 

[Lensen]

no just melbourne this week... if im wrong i'll fess up that im a mug.... what have you seen in melbourne to think they have any hope

100%?

If it's 100% then there's no chance you'll have to fess up - 100% is the likelihood of something completely certain.

I think you're confusing "very very likely" with certain.

 

[Gimp]

I'd take geelong 100+ before trusting north. We just crumble against quality teams (except hawthorn), until we show something against the big boys, avoid it.

 

[Sainters12]

wow north +31.5 against the cats and its not in geelong....

get in early this is the bet of the round imo

Wouldn't touch North tbh, media always pump them up before big games, like last year for example. They were fighting for a finals spot and were coming up against St.Kilda, we came out and destroyed them by 10+ goals. Don't rate them at all.

 

[reidfactor]

I'd take geelong 100+ before trusting north. We just crumble against quality teams (except hawthorn), until we show something against the big boys, avoid it.

no scarlett, and stevie j and selwood under injury clouds... plus the cats are coming off a very physical game, i honestly can see the roos winning..

you guys are pretty much full strength with ziebal back in

 

[DerpWerls]

Be very wary.

Elaborate please
I am open to advice, no arrogance here