AFL Round 8

[Cudi]

Honourable losses are a dime a dozen. True that last weeks one was only by 9 goals...slightly less than usual for the dogs.

I'm not rating Gold Coast at all, but just think there's better bets than one on a team that basically lose by a lot every single week ...even GWS have a better record than WB in the last 18 games

To put that stat into perspective we haven't played GWS, Gold Coast, Melbourne or Port Adelaide in that period. Beat all them last time we played them though.

 

[Tassieboy]

GWS lowest score of the round is great value at York Park.

 

[d3ft]

GWS lowest score of the round is great value at York Park.

GWS lowest score of the round is great value at *insert ground name here*.

 

[Tassieboy]

GWS lowest score of the round is great value at *insert ground name here*.

The Average losing score this decade at York Park has just been 65. It has been just 67 in all 45 matches.

 

[The Taxman]

Collingwood vs. Geelong: The Pies biggest concern is their fourth quarter drop off, winning just two final terms this season (Fremantle and Carlton). Now with Shaw and Thomas out Collingwood's defensive woes will continue, particularly against Geelong's barrage of small forwards.

However, with Ball back in the mix and Pendlebury once again firing they should stay competitive for the first three quarters. I think I'll be following the 81% of punters backing Geelong but put my money on Collingwood to win the third quarter @ 2.50 with Sportsbet.

 

[tupperware]

Collingwood vs. Geelong: The Pies biggest concern is their fourth quarter drop off, winning just two final terms this season (Fremantle and Carlton).

Didn't win final term against Freo..

 

[yamahamoto]

Form wise North is value but if you look at the team West Coast have its strongest line up this season. If Swallow plays I will stay away from this game, if he is a late out then I will jump on Eagles

 

[ricardogp]

The Average losing score this decade at York Park has just been 65. It has been just 67 in all 45 matches.

And what's the median? I prefer medians.

 

[ricardogp]

So is anyone still keen on the Hawthorn line seeing as it's gone from 90 to 103?

There have only been 2 wins at that venue bigger than that line: Hawks by 116 over Freo on 2010 and Hawks by 114 over North last year.

Admittedly GWS are a rubbish side and Hawthorn are fielding a pretty much full-strength team, and last time they met they were wupped by 162. So I'm still tempted.

 

[tupperware]

So is anyone still keen on the Hawthorn line seeing as it's gone from 90 to 103?

There have only been 2 wins at that venue bigger than that line: Hawks by 116 over Freo on 2010 and Hawks by 114 over North last year.

Admittedly GWS are a rubbish side and Hawthorn are fielding a pretty much full-strength team, and last time they met they were wupped by 162. So I'm still tempted.

Over 100 I stay away. Never know when the Hawks will pack up shop for the day.

 

[d3ft]

The Average losing score this decade at York Park has just been 65. It has been just 67 in all 45 matches.

Interesting stat, but as old mate suggested above, median would be far more relevant.

An average is relevant when you are looking at performance over a time period however when looking at a point in time estimate, such as a single game, median is the statistic to use.

 

[banana_bus]

Some really low scores in Launceston in the last few years, including 58 (GCS) 39 (Freo) and 43 (Brisbane)...

 

[Willzzz]

I give a few dogs a good chance of winning SU.
I'm liking NM, Port Adelaide, WB.
Think Geelong and Swans are good value too.
I'm liking Brisbane at the line, The line shouldn't be 50+ for any team other than the expansion ones and Melbourne.

 

[banana_bus]

I'm liking Brisbane at the line, The line shouldn't be 50+ for any team other than the expansion ones and Melbourne.

Brisbane are horrible. Theyre not much better than GCS and nearly got rolled by the Dees at home. Dons seething after last week. This one will be messy.

 

[d3ft]

Yep Brisbane are garbage. Got rolled by 68 by the dogs, 63 by those battlers Norf and struggled to victory against a shitty Melbourne and just fell in against the GC. 60+ for mine but will be taking the 40+ in my multi to be on the safe side

Agreed. I've only watched one Brisbane match - the Sydney game - and they looked abysmal. Swans weren't even trying and did them by 10 goals.

That said, they've had some handy inclusions since.

Once Rich returns along with Staker and Maguire I think they'll look a lot better. But until they show otherwise they should be rated with the Dogs, Melb and the expansions.

 

[Willzzz]

Agreed. I've only watched one Brisbane match - the Sydney game - and they looked abysmal. Swans weren't even trying and did them by 10 goals.

That said, they've had some handy inclusions since.

Once Rich returns along with Staker and Maguire I think they'll look a lot better. But until they show otherwise they should be rated with the Dogs, Melb and the expansions.

Seemed to have done alright against WCE last week. The players r right behind Voss, so I imagine they will put in 100%. Essendon might be in a bit of a slump. Imagine adversities (Drugs scandal) would catch up with a team once they start losing some games.

 

[d3ft]

Seemed to have done alright against WCE last week. The players r right behind Voss, so I imagine they will put in 100%. Essendon might be in a bit of a slump. Imagine adversities (Drugs scandal) would catch up with a team once they start losing some games.

That's more an indictment of West Coast... my gosh they stink this year. I still can't forgive them for squandering that 41 point lead against Port.

 

[Tassieboy]

Best value of the round:

Essendon - 51.5
Swallow under 115.5 DT points
Fremantle + 18.5
Carlton - 18.5

 

[Thedeftouch]

First four games...

NM +19.5 and $3.30 (@ WCE) - North have played higher quality football this year. Eagles have a lot of recent inclusions, and you have to wonder if they will be ready individually and as a team. For reasons unknown, Adam Selwood has returned to play "for" the Eagles. The Eagles have only beaten minnows thus far, and have had some disappointing losses against average opposition (Carlton, Port Adelaide). Meanwhile North have played quite well against a strong class of opponent, and their playing group should be working together quite well by now.

No play BNE @ ESS - hard to tell where Essendon are at right now, after a couple of ordinary weeks. Stanton is back and he destroyed the Lions last year. The Lions should be slightly better with Simon Black playing his first full game, and do have a habit of playing out the second half even when behind by decent margins. The line of 50ish seems about right, although I would lean Essendon simply because the Lions haven't played a top-end team yet (Swannies aren't there yet).

GWS +102.5 (@ HAW) - in a spot like this, best vs worst, where the public is attracted to only one side, I'm always tempted to take on the favourite. I am attracted to the idea that the GWS results are largely a function of how much their opposition cares. E.g. against the lower/mid teams who are hungry for a win, fade GWS (e.g. this year against the Crows, Saints, Demons). But GWS can do quite well against the better sides who are more likely to be complacent (e.g. this year Swans and Bombers). The Hawks play three minnows and then have a bye, so you have to wonder if they will be lacking inspiration here. It certainly could be a triple digit spanking, but I think more likely that GWS will be competitive for at least a quarter of the game, and the margin will be in the vicinity of 10 goals.

WBD +10.5 and $2.35 (@ GC) - trend this year where minnows have struggled after playing previous minnows the week prior. Gold Coast have played very weak opposition lately; MEL/FRE/GCS the last three weeks. So their recent results are being overrated. By contrast the Doggies have only played one minnow (Brisbane, a convincing WBD win), but have put in some reasonable quarters against teams like Geelong and North. I think they're a bit bigger, a bit more experienced, and should be favourites to get a win at Metricon. The Dogs also have some good taggers to stifle the brilliance at Ablett.

 

[buddymania]

The Dogs also have some good taggers to stifle the brilliance at Ablett.

Like who? Ablett absolutely dominates Picken and he's the number one choice in Calvins Captains for DT this week.

I would be staying away from betting on North. I think Swallows unlikely to play, which would make it very difficult for them to win with our ins this week.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Like who? Ablett absolutely dominates Picken and he's the number one choice in Calvins Captains for DT this week.

Picken and Lower have been quite effective this season. Can't comment on Calvin, but I agree Ablett will still be a force even with a solid tag. He's undoubtedly the best player in the game. I'm talking about relative impact.

 

[KP78]

Collingwood are seriously out to 4 bucks on Bet365? Can someone confirm this?

Geelong obviously deserve to start favourites but wow, cannot remember the last time Collingwood were paying over 3 bucks....

 

[Tassieboy]

Great DT odds at Centrebet:

5u Jack over 91.5 - Cleared 6/7 this season (107, 121, 59, 101, 113, 104, 106). Averaged 98 last season, too, but appears more consistent this season.
3u Barlow over 85.5 - Cleared 5/7 this season (126, 91, 90, 81, 122, 81, 100).

Swan looks like a 1.5u play @ 112.5. Lowest line I can recall for Swan.

 

[DragzLS1]

Anybody else a little hesitant on north at the line tonight? I backed them but no Swallow has got be thinking. Boomer is back and will impact but worried west coasts ins have too much class on a big ground.

 

[laam]

Great DT odds at Centrebet:

5u Jack over 91.5 - Cleared 6/7 this season (107, 121, 59, 101, 113, 104, 106). Averaged 98 last season, too, but appears more consistent this season.
3u Barlow over 85.5 - Cleared 5/7 this season (126, 91, 90, 81, 122, 81, 100).

Swan looks like a 1.5u play @ 112.5. Lowest line I can recall for Swan.

good finds there, taking jack and barlow for 1.5u each and swan for 1u all @ 1.87

also 1u GWS lowest score @ 3.55