And in the last 4 matches they've played that actually counted they've lost by 36, 91, 61 and 55.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL Round 9
- Thread starter balmainforever
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And in the last 4 matches they've played that actually counted they've lost by 36, 91, 61 and 55.
yamahamoto
Team Captain
Saints have the wood on bulldogs recently and bulldogs are bad. If they can score 60pts against the suns and how many points can they score against st Kilda.
Also since when port a decent team?
Also since when port a decent team?
Don't mind the Swans but might wait, got a feeling they'll start longer than $2.30
I think you're right. Expecting a lot of Pies love this week.
Did anyone else notice the Pies ran consistently 2-3m over the mark against the Cats and never once got called for it. Completely killed their run.
Apparently this is called "defensive pressure" - I call it cheating.
Yep,
Western Bulldogs is the bet of the round.
I'll take them at the line, SU and -15.5.
St. Kilda, back-to-back 6 day breaks with a trip to Adelaide in between.
It will take a heavy toll on their young players (of which there are many).
Their list is very similar to the Doggies in terms of experience.
Western Bulldogs is the bet of the round.
I'll take them at the line, SU and -15.5.
St. Kilda, back-to-back 6 day breaks with a trip to Adelaide in between.
It will take a heavy toll on their young players (of which there are many).
Their list is very similar to the Doggies in terms of experience.
GWS at the line isnt a bad offer. WCE are in poor form.
GWS + 70.5 vs West Coast
Ade to Win @ 2.75 vs North
BL + 14.5 vs Carlton
Mel + 62.5 vs Freo
My main 4 bets I tried. New to this myself so we will see how I go.
GWS + 70.5 vs West Coast
Ade to Win @ 2.75 vs North
BL + 14.5 vs Carlton
Mel + 62.5 vs Freo
My main 4 bets I tried. New to this myself so we will see how I go.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
Am expecting the Dons to come out firing this week and record a nice win. Richmond were quite poor against the Dees but will come to play for Dreamtime, still think Essendon will win. Gumbleton back, and Hurley to play quarters will be a +
Thoughts on Sydney v Collingwood:
From 2012 stats:
* Collingwood were bad at covering lines, and only covered: 4 of 19 in Victoria, 6 of 16 at night, 1 of 7 on Friday and 4 of 16 at the MCG.
* Sydney covered 9 of 12 interstate and 5 of 7 as interstate underdogs.
In 2013:
* Collingwood have covered 3 of 5 at the MCG, but only 1 of 3 of night games and have failed to cover in their last 3 games as favourites.
* Sydney have only covered 2 lines this year, but note that this is only the second time they haven't played as favourites.
I have 2 models that show that Sydney are possibly 2 goals better than Collingwood. Overall, with the small line, things are pointing to a close game, so something like Sydney 1-39 at $2.90 is looking quite tasty.
Even more tasty - Sportsbet are offering refunds on that game if your H2H bet loses by under 20 points. This could easily be a 2 goal thriller.
[I was about to suggest betting on both sides, but SportsBet already have that covered in the Ts & Cs...
]
From 2012 stats:
* Collingwood were bad at covering lines, and only covered: 4 of 19 in Victoria, 6 of 16 at night, 1 of 7 on Friday and 4 of 16 at the MCG.
* Sydney covered 9 of 12 interstate and 5 of 7 as interstate underdogs.
In 2013:
* Collingwood have covered 3 of 5 at the MCG, but only 1 of 3 of night games and have failed to cover in their last 3 games as favourites.
* Sydney have only covered 2 lines this year, but note that this is only the second time they haven't played as favourites.
I have 2 models that show that Sydney are possibly 2 goals better than Collingwood. Overall, with the small line, things are pointing to a close game, so something like Sydney 1-39 at $2.90 is looking quite tasty.
Even more tasty - Sportsbet are offering refunds on that game if your H2H bet loses by under 20 points. This could easily be a 2 goal thriller.
[I was about to suggest betting on both sides, but SportsBet already have that covered in the Ts & Cs...
]Yeah, I'd be interested in that as well. I've been keeping records this year, but for last year I only have the stats for winning at the line, not what the line was.
^ your logic seems to be based purely on previous lines, not factoring in that Sydney are in average form, woeful at the MCG (see Hawks game) and always lose to Collingwood (except for last years prelim when they were depleted).
As much as I hate to say it, Collingwood is beautiful value this weekend. They will smash the line too which is unders.
Early multi paying $9.
Cats win - cant see port winning, not picking margin as it depends which port/cats turn up.
NM win - even though NM hasn't been winning, they are in great form. NM too strong at ES and Adelaide have a bad record there (lost 1 of past 10 matches at ES).
Hawks -66.5 - very surprised to see the line only at 66.5. Gold coast has a few wins but who have they really beaten. Hawks to easily cover the line.
STK win - Dogs have been very poor. STK won't lose.
Wce 40+ - Wce should win comfortably.
Freo -62.5 - Freo at home will smash the demons.
Cats win - cant see port winning, not picking margin as it depends which port/cats turn up.
NM win - even though NM hasn't been winning, they are in great form. NM too strong at ES and Adelaide have a bad record there (lost 1 of past 10 matches at ES).
Hawks -66.5 - very surprised to see the line only at 66.5. Gold coast has a few wins but who have they really beaten. Hawks to easily cover the line.
STK win - Dogs have been very poor. STK won't lose.
Wce 40+ - Wce should win comfortably.
Freo -62.5 - Freo at home will smash the demons.
1 of those 3 lines will be what costs you here - I think it will be the Dockers or WCE.
I also like the Cats/North/Saints though... Dogs are really bad atm.
I think it's easy to get a bit carried away from last week with Collingwood. They always get up for Geelong and they weren't going that well before last week. They have so many injuries that I can't see them smashing anything. Under 15.5 either way IMO. Sydney had Freo at arms length for all but 5 minutes of the game and that form probably isn't too bad.
X_box_X
The Opportunist
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While I do agree with the first part re: Collingwood not going that well, I can't agree with the second part. I thought Freo controlled the game last week for the majority of the match, despite being behind by over five goals at one stage. I found myself watching that game instead of the Collingwood/Geelong game as part of my work for FanFooty, and what I took out of the game is that Freo should have won that game by about 4-5 goals. Inaccurate kicking cost them severely.
West Coast's last few matches against bottom sides
Won by 94 vs Melbourne
Won by 60 vs Bulldogs
Won by 48 vs Port (in Adelaide)
Won by 98 vs Brisbane
Won by 126 vs GC
Won by 81 vs GWS
Won by 108 vs Melbourne
West Coast go huge quite often against the crap teams
Was the Port match the only away game in there?
EDIT: Never mind, a bunch were. Including the GWS result.
Gone with this multi.
Syd +9.5
Geel
WCE -70.5
StK 25+
Bris +16.5
Rich +4.5
Haw 60+
Adel +30.5
Freo 40+
@ 76
Syd +9.5
Geel
WCE -70.5
StK 25+
Bris +16.5
Rich +4.5
Haw 60+
Adel +30.5
Freo 40+
@ 76
I was worried about that too which is why WCE is only 40+ and not -70. Melbourne is inconsistent, play with some spirit one week and the next they don't turn up. GC managed to thump them at the G so I hope freo at home can do the same.
infinity303
Rookie
I'm going to tail this bet I reckon it's awesome. I'm just swapping the rich + to an ess -
All last year? Not a great time to compare those results. West Coast are playing poorly and just had another two injuries
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Gone with this multi for the weekend.
Collingwood 1-39
Geelong H2H
West Coast -69.5
St Kilda H2H
Carlton H2H
Richmond H2H
North Melbourne 1-39
Fremantle -61.5
Gold Coast +65.5
@135
Thoughts?
Collingwood 1-39
Geelong H2H
West Coast -69.5
St Kilda H2H
Carlton H2H
Richmond H2H
North Melbourne 1-39
Fremantle -61.5
Gold Coast +65.5
@135
Thoughts?
How about the 70 point win over Doggies and 94 point win over the Demons this year?
West Coast are playing poorly and will revel in playing poorer opposition and are a huge chance to beat up on them once they get going. Wham and Schofield pretty easily covered by Embley and Brown this week against GWS.
