AFL Round 9

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Aafter doing well last night and this afternoon, I went terrible tonight. Lost almost every bet.

The good news is that I have now sufficiently turned over the money in my accounts and withdrawn every cent.

For the year, I am down about $85. That's despite taking advantage of $700 worth of free bets ($500 at Luxbet, $200 at Centrebet) so in terms of picking value in the market I have gone pretty woefully, even if I haven't lost much 'real' money. Either I am a crap punter or punting is a mug's game. Or both. In any event, I'm out.

Punting is a lot of fun and I'm happy to lose money 'over the journey' if it adds to the experience of watching sport - which it normally does. But I'm tired of wasting my time trying to pick form and watching matches I normally wouldn't just because I have a bet on it, which is what tends to happen when I have money sitting in an online account. The feeling of wastefulness is only compounded when bets don't get up. In the future if I see an irresistible bet I will deposit money specifically for that bet and then withdraw it immediately afterwards (if it wins) but this business of having an online account with money in it and looking at the odds every weekend is over for me, at least for the foreseeable future.

More good news is that I found out a few weeks ago that I had an old Betezy account which still had $80 in it from god knows when - probably when I had just turned 18 all those years ago. Only discovered this when I was cleaning out an old hotmail account I used to use. So for 2013 I figure am about even in terms of real money. In a way. Shut up.

Good luck to you lads and happy punting!
 
It hurts me to say this but I think North are certainties tomorrow.

Getting on them h2h and at the line.
 
Anyone who likes free money Centrebet have Michael Johnson over Dawson in DT @ $1.80. Average of 70 v 29 and this matchup has not surprisingly been won 8/8 times by Johnson for those of you who weren't convinced after I said it was gain at Dawson. Could only see an injury costing Johnson and even then he would only need to make it through the 2nd quarter.
 
Is anyone else thinking of putting some cash down on Tom Hawkins for the Coleman after this round? He's kicked 25.5 this year, I imagine the most accurate forward in the game, he's only 6 back off the leader but that's having played 1 less game through injury and also having 2 more injury effected games. Cats have a soft draw for the rest of the season, GC and GWS before the bye, plus Demons, Port, Brissy x2. More importantly he's starting to run into some form.

Not much talk about him and his odds should be decent. What do ya think?
 
Anyone who likes free money Centrebet have Michael Johnson over Dawson in DT @ $1.80. Average of 70 v 29 and this matchup has not surprisingly been won 8/8 times by Johnson for those of you who weren't convinced after I said it was gain at Dawson. Could only see an injury costing Johnson and even then he would only need to make it through the 2nd quarter.
this is unbelievable
 
I like the home underdogs this week. Plus these lines are "inexorably" moving toward lowest Mean Average Error for Margin of Victory.

1U Port +30.5
1U GWS +70.5
1.5U Brisbane +16.5

Richmond also look huge value. Both Essendon and Richmond have won the same number of games over the last 15 rounds. Essendon are no better than Richmond. You can say the same about Brisbane and Carlton too.

1U Richmond @ $2.05

YTD: 4-3, +1.81U

1-4 for the weekend. I don't understand how this happened. I smashed the Closing Line on all bets and Steam Chased at every book. Wait, when I think about it, lowest Mean Average Error means absolutely nothing unless you know which side of the line that error leans to and when. Brett128, you duped me.

YTD: 5-7, -0.31U
 
Anyone who likes free money Centrebet have Michael Johnson over Dawson in DT @ $1.80. Average of 70 v 29 and this matchup has not surprisingly been won 8/8 times by Johnson for those of you who weren't convinced after I said it was gain at Dawson. Could only see an injury costing Johnson and even then he would only need to make it through the 2nd quarter.

Wow, how does this even exist. Thanks for pointing this out as I usually check these markets in the morning.

Absolutely speechless.
 

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Anyone who likes free money Centrebet have Michael Johnson over Dawson in DT @ $1.80. Average of 70 v 29 and this matchup has not surprisingly been won 8/8 times by Johnson for those of you who weren't convinced after I said it was gain at Dawson. Could only see an injury costing Johnson and even then he would only need to make it through the 2nd quarter.

...Aaaaaaaaaaand I'm back in the game and all over this bet.

∞U (i.e. a weeks worth of youth allowance) (i.e. $200) @ $1.80.

If this doesn't get up, I will quit punting for the rest of the year, even if they are offering $10 for the Poms to knock us off in the Ashes. I'm not kidding, if Dawson beats Johnson and I do my dough on this one, I wouldn't take $10 odds for a Pommy triumph in the Ashes. I'll be DONE for 2013 (and possibly beyond).
 
Wow, how does this even exist. Thanks for pointing this out as I usually check these markets in the morning.

Absolutely speechless.

What gets me is that it hasn't even come in. foxy_dal has no doubt unloaded on it with his winnings from the St.Kilda/Carlton match, and there's certain to be a few lurkers out there who've laid down similar amounts to me.

I've seen other DT bets mentioned on this forum come in significantly within minutes of being posted on here, but this one still sits at $1.80. If Johnson starts as the sub I'm calling for a Royal Commission into spot-fixing in the AFL. I'm semi-srs btw.
 
Is anyone else thinking of putting some cash down on Tom Hawkins for the Coleman after this round? He's kicked 25.5 this year, I imagine the most accurate forward in the game, he's only 6 back off the leader but that's having played 1 less game through injury and also having 2 more injury effected games. Cats have a soft draw for the rest of the season, GC and GWS before the bye, plus Demons, Port, Brissy x2. More importantly he's starting to run into some form.

Not much talk about him and his odds should be decent. What do ya think?

Not a bad bet at all. I went with Cloke at the start of the year, if only he could kick straight :rolleyes:
 
Anyone who likes free money Centrebet have Michael Johnson over Dawson in DT @ $1.80. Average of 70 v 29 and this matchup has not surprisingly been won 8/8 times by Johnson for those of you who weren't convinced after I said it was gain at Dawson. Could only see an injury costing Johnson and even then he would only need to make it through the 2nd quarter.

It wouldn't surprise me if these bets end up getting refunded. Seems like an obvious mistake on their end, especially since the price didn't move at all.
 
It wouldn't surprise me if these bets end up getting refunded. Seems like an obvious mistake on their end, especially since the price didn't move at all.

Bookies don't normally get it wrong. Maybe they know something we don't.
Ross Lyon might have Zac Dawson playing Ruck or FF with Johnson at FB.
Actually, even then...
 
Bookies don't normally get it wrong. Maybe they know something we don't.
Ross Lyon might have Zac Dawson playing Ruck or FF with Johnson at FB.
Actually, even then...

Like you said, even if it was something like that, the numbers just don't add up. Maybe the bets will stand, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it refunded. Seems odd to take it down if there was nothing going on there.
 

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AFL Round 9

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