Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[gillon]

Parish is netting a pick in the late teens at the absolute best. More likely a second rounder.

Would be all over Luko but would like cost our first + second. No way they are letting him go easily considering his contract status.

 

[Snake Charmer]

In order to behave like US Sport you need player movement, talent pool size and player wages like US Sport.

True but it would also be nice to see the club cut it loses on someone who isn’t good enough. Cox might get there but how long will it take.

 

[faible]

True but it would also be nice to see the club cut it loses on someone who isn’t good enough. Cox might get there but how long will it take.

Plenty of tall guys don't come good until their mid 20s, often they simply get drafted older and we don't realise that it's taken them so long to come good since they're not in the system at 18.

If you look at the stats, Cox is pretty much doing the same thing this year as he was in his first year. Not sure whether having two injury interrupted years has set him back that much, whether we've developed him poorly and he's totally bereft of confidence, or that he's simply not going to be any more than what he currently is, but at his height and age I think you need to persist a bit longer. He's effectively ruckman height, same as Zach Reid, and it might not be until they're closer to 25 that their bodies are mature enough to show what they're capable of.

 

[FootyGuru]

True but it would also be nice to see the club cut it loses on someone who isn’t good enough. Cox might get there but how long will it take.

Cox looks abit laconic sometimes, and I wish he was a little more physical but his qualities are invaluable to a premiership teams. Unfortunately in average teams you wish he would do more.

Look at Blicavs at Geelong and compare their stats at the same age. Then look at the roles filled around super star team mates. He was even awarded an all Aus and bnf, because on a successful team role players are glorified compared to role players on average teams.

Over the last couple games he has been shifted out of the wing float forward role that he was actually playing fairly solid in. He was moved out of desperation. Who was gonna play on Jackson and Andrew? Andrew kicked 0 in the 1 quarter cox was on him and proceeded to kick 4 in the next 3. Jackson was held to only 2. I feel like McKay and leverde generally concede at least that many to their direct opponents. In my opinion cox looked abit flat having to change roles and basically play full back and it took abit of his drive away.

Cox is a work in progress but is a safety blanket for Scott because he knows he can basically fill gaps in any roles. If our team improves and his body fills out he will become a really important role player.

 

[Rick Ross]

True but it would also be nice to see the club cut it loses on someone who isn’t good enough. Cox might get there but how long will it take.

Needs to considered 2 ways -

1. Who are least likely players to kick on? I get Cox might be on that list for some … but I don’t think he’s in the top 3 or 4 least likely.

2. Do we have the capability to get in someone better?

In Cox’s case, is better to cut our loses only to bring in a late draft pick that is little or no chance of making it?

 

[Snake Charmer]

Needs to considered 2 ways -

1. Who are least likely players to kick on? I get Cox might be on that list for some … but I don’t think he’s in the top 3 or 4 least likely.

2. Do we have the capability to get in someone better?

In Cox’s case, is better to cut our loses only to bring in a late draft pick that is little or no chance of making it?

We wouldn’t trade him for a pick in the 40s imo. 0 chance of that happening but I’d love to see it lol

 

[jdstorm]

Id be happy to move him on a pick in the 40s instead of playing him 100+ games but that won’t happen.

Sometimes I wish we’d be more ruthless like American teams are. Once it’s contract time more often than not failed 1st round picks are moved on and the next are ushered in.

NBA first round picks get 5 year guaranteed deals when they are drafted.

Cox would have another year on his rookie deal and would then get another year if he accepted a matched qualifying offer.

 

[Skipper_]

NBA first round picks get 5 year guaranteed deals when they are drafted.

Cox would have another year on his rookie deal and would then get another year if he accepted a matched qualifying offer.

This is incorrect, NBA first round picks only have 2 guaranteed years and then a further 2 years of team options to pick up or terminate the contract.

As I’m sure you’re away though, the vast majority of early picks will be given the full 4 years however teams do occasionally let players go when it’s obvious they’re not going to make it.

 

[andleanback]

Parish is netting a pick in the late teens at the absolute best. More likely a second rounder.

Would be all over Luko but would like cost our first + second. No way they are letting him go easily considering his contract status.

Luko another player who is flaky and lacks competitiveness. Hard pass

 

[Snake Charmer]

Cox looks abit laconic sometimes, and I wish he was a little more physical but his qualities are invaluable to a premiership teams. Unfortunately in average teams you wish he would do more.

Look at Blicavs at Geelong and compare their stats at the same age. Then look at the roles filled around super star team mates. He was even awarded an all Aus and bnf, because on a successful team role players are glorified compared to role players on average teams.

Over the last couple games he has been shifted out of the wing float forward role that he was actually playing fairly solid in. He was moved out of desperation. Who was gonna play on Jackson and Andrew? Andrew kicked 0 in the 1 quarter cox was on him and proceeded to kick 4 in the next 3. Jackson was held to only 2. I feel like McKay and leverde generally concede at least that many to their direct opponents. In my opinion cox looked abit flat having to change roles and basically play full back and it took abit of his drive away.

Cox is a work in progress but is a safety blanket for Scott because he knows he can basically fill gaps in any roles. If our team improves and his body fills out he will become a really important role player.

Comparing Cox to Blicavs is a weird one. One guy wasn’t a footballer the other was a top 10 pick.

 

[Hird05]

How about no.

All of our small forwards for Petracca

 

[Hird05]

Personally would not be trading Parish. Cox can stay but no more seniors till he's tearing it up. Would happily trade Draper, Perkins, McGrath and 2mp for whatever we can get. Need a small forward, KPF and another decent backman

 

[jdstorm]

i should of worded that better: even before contracts up they are trading them if it’s not working out

Fair enough.

I still it doesn’t really happen all that often. Normally year 4 when the drafting team doesn’t want to pay them.

It’s easier in the NBA because you only really need to find 8 players across 3 positions and have 17 list spots vs AFL where it’s 22 players across 8 positions

The other thing is these players aren’t really traded for picks but rather for other players. Trading established players for pics is hard and the AFL market for these pics is pretty broken. Takes away most of the incentive to trade for them knowing every other team is doing the same thing and you will get screwed over.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Fair enough.

I still it doesn’t really happen all that often. Normally year 4 when the drafting team doesn’t want to pay them.

It’s easier in the NBA because you only really need to find 8 players across 3 positions and have 17 list spots vs AFL where it’s 22 players across 8 positions

The other thing is these players aren’t really traded for picks but rather for other players. Trading established players for pics is hard and the AFL market for these pics is pretty broken. Takes away most of the incentive to trade for them knowing every other team is doing the same thing and you will get screwed over.

I agree with everything you’re saying but i should have put more detail into my original post as this isn’t really the point.

 

[Zach Package]

I agree with everything you’re saying but i should have put more detail into my original post as this isn’t really the point.

If we didn’t piss fart around and just signed him because he had obvious tools then we have one on each wing.

At no stage was it either or, or was there any kind of list squeeze.

 

[Cold Sober]

How many Western Australians do we have on our list.

 

[Yoda_]

Martin is a genuine wing. Scott just refuses to play him there.

Ridley is a genuinely good interceptor, 3rd tall defender whom Scot refuses to play to his strengths.

 

[jdstorm]

I agree with everything you’re saying but i should have put more detail into my original post as this isn’t really the point.

My understanding of your point was about sunk cost and selling high on a rapidly depreciating asset.

I agree with you that it makes sense to do that. It’s just the practicality of that makes it hard. Because

1. Trading a young high draft pick if they want to stay means your admitting it was a bad pick (aka you did a bad job as a list manager and that can get you fired)

2. You won’t get close to fair value for these guys. Players like Setterfield and Paddy Dow were top 10 pics that went for a 4th round pick (which is functionally worthless) or a 3rd round pick (which isn’t much better)

The best (cut your losses) trade is probably a BZT for Dursma style trade where you trade a fringe starter across positions for another fringe starter where a team has depth in a position where you have a need and hope to find a hidden gem.

 

[nipst@r]

I think we shouldn't be opposed to trading players for picks before tassie enters.

Can actually even select some tassie kids as tassie can afford to pay overs with draft capital when they enter, if they want to trade for them.

I'd hold off trading players for picks this year though, at least until dodo 100% gone and has no influence on drafting. Has less influence but we need to be at a zero influence to give me any confidence.

 

[cAsEy_18]

Outside of trading for a second, I wanted every draft pick that we take in the next 3 years to have three things in common.

1. Speed
2. Kicking ability
3. For good measure, mental edge. Give me the kid who was clearly the bully at school, rather than the school captain.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Give me the kid who was clearly the bully at school, rather than the school captain.

Yeah nah

 

[cAsEy_18]

Yeah nah

Might not be the exact phrasing, and you obviously don’t want 15 of them.

But mental issues is clearly a major flaw with our list, and it’s something we have very obviously overlooked for a long time.

I want us to prioritise guys that ooze competitiveness, and potentially have a bit of that swagger. That reek of self-confidence. Guys like Caddy, like Roberts, like… early days Hobbs.

Instead, we prioritise “good character” guys, who I’ve seen some will label as ‘private school types’ (I know Roberts was Haileybury). These guys are I’m sure fantastic around the club and during the week, but seriously lack that killer instinct and self confidence you need a footy field. I’m talking McGrath, Wright, potentially even Tsatas (too early to tell) types. Weideman if you want to dip into the reserves.

I’m obviously not saying those are the only 2 types of players that you can drafts. I’m also not saying you only need one type - lists need a balance of characters and personalities.
But as it currently stands, ours is weighted far too strongly to the “nice guy, good character” type, and really lacking that confident, domineering presence types.

 

[FootyGuru]

Comparing Cox to Blicavs is a weird one. One guy wasn’t a footballer the other was a top 10 pick.

Blicavs played junior footy then focussed on running. It’s not like Blicavs had never held a football before. Cox and Blicavs are similar types.
The top 10 pick thing cox was chosen based on his junior football too.

 

[Snake Charmer]

Blicavs played junior footy then focussed on running. It’s not like Blicavs had never held a football before. Cox and Blicavs are similar types.
The top 10 pick thing cox was chosen based on his junior football too.

Blicavs was also pretty close to a world class endurance athlete when he was drafted and wasn’t an 18 year old. Also played in a much better side. I haven’t bothered looking at there stat comparisons because it’s apple and oranges to me

 

[FootyGuru]

Blicavs was also pretty close to a world class endurance athlete when he was drafted and wasn’t an 18 year old. Also played in a much better side. I haven’t bothered looking at there stat comparisons because it’s apple and oranges to me

I agree with playing in a better side, when role players get celebrated. But cox is also an elite endurance athlete, maybe not world class but unbelievable for his height. If you can’t see similarities in their skill sets we will never agree.