Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

Quick links: Player Contract Status | Draft Watch 2023 | AFLW Draft, Trade & Sign

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[FootyGuru]

Isn’t it helpful to have saints supporters telling us what’s best for our club.

 

[Vindicater]

Isn’t it helpful to have saints supporters telling us what’s best for our club.

It sure is nice of them.

 

[Dave]

The bolded should have happened at the end of 2022 but the club decided that it was all Rutten's fault and absolved the players (when both were the issue).

Half of the players listed in the bolded section weren’t even on the list when Rutten was sacked. Of the half that were, four of the seven had been on the list for two years. Not sure what you’re demanding was possible without a time machine.

 

[ant555]

Isn’t it helpful to have saints supporters telling us what’s best for our club.

Have been excited by the prospect all year.

 

[BrunoV]

No it is on Scott , Vozzo and Dodoro. They where the list management crew at the time. Scott said sign him he is part of my future team. Dodoro negotiated the contract. Vozzo and Welsh signed off on it.

As far as the 2024 draft the comment last year was it was a small midfielders draft. Every year the top 10 changes. Even more so when there is not a Harley Reid. Sometimes you really show a lack of understanding or contempt for how it works.
Lets face it we did not know the system would be changed mid year and we would be in line to take Kako via NGA. Secondly Kako was considered to be more 20 to 30 at the start of the year. A player like Tauru who is now being looked at well inside the first round was not even inside the top 30. The fact that multiple clubs now want to trade in shows there was not really an obvious vibe about the top end of this draft. Saying there is no coherent strategy is simply wrong.

So we are in agreement, then, that it was Scott and Vozzo. A contract negotiator does not make any decisions, other than on strategy for negotiating, he acts on instructions. It's thinking that Parish is good that is the problem, looking at the imbalance play out in real time and refusing to acknowledge it for what it is (and then brining in Goldstein because he is needed to make the mids effective). And we know that the rest of the competition, the industry experts I am told I should be listening to, do not rate Parish. We know this because there was no interest in him in his free agency year. That's the sort of player the experts would give a 6 year deal?

When did this draft become considered a really strong one, in August 2024?

 

[ant555]

So we are in agreement, then, that it was Scott and Vozzo. A contract negotiator does not make any decisions, other than on strategy for negotiating, he acts on instructions. It's thinking that Parish is good that is the problem, looking at the imbalance play out in real time and refusing to acknowledge it for what it is (and then brining in Goldstein because he is needed to make the mids effective). And we know that the rest of the competition, the industry experts I am told I should be listening to, do not rate Parish. We know this because there was no interest in him in his free agency year. That's the sort of player the experts would give a 6 year deal?

When did this draft become considered a really strong one, in August 2024?

As far as Parish goes it is all about opinion. You do not rate him at all. I think he is a B grade that is replicable but can play a role. Others think he is more than that. Yes I agree that Scott and Vozzo made the final decision. I am already on record as saying Scott / Vozzo / McPherson / Dodoro where the list management crew in that area. Dodoro was doing the contracts. Had no final say but he still would have had input. So as far as Parish staying it is opinion. Secondly there was interest just not interest at the price his manager wanted and Parish did not actually want to go. Geelong had interest. It was just at $100k a year less and 4 years from the "experts" I got info from. I did not think he was worth 6 years but you will find that the 6 years but that is not really your issue anyway. You did not think he was worth any years.
Funny thing about industry experts. You can line up 5 of them and they will all give you a different expert opinion on football. Anyway. The experts you are told to listen to ? so someone else is telling you to listen to someone else to from an opinion. Did you not flame me a while back because I was using info given directly to me ? I will give you a free tip. Listen to them all. Form your own opinion. Throw away what you do not need. A smart man never stops learning or evolving and in that comes looking at all sides of the conversations.



The draft got considered stronger as the year went on and more players who were not considered top 40 improved over summer and during the year. That is how it works. There is an initial baseline of form from under 16 and bottom age players and then it depends on how many players push up. Clubs was actively looking to trade into this draft in desperation last year. Going by your theory clubs would have been moving their picks from last year to this year if they all thought it was super strong then. All clubs are tracking under age pathways and have an idea of how many really good players are at the top end. The unknown factor is how many Clayton Oliver types there are . The guys that start the year not in the top 50 and end up being top 5 or 5 to 10 or just first round. It is these guys that determine how strong the draft ends up looking and it happens through the year. Then you can throw in a few injuries. Players that where highly rated that miss games early or championships and other get opportunity and shine. They add to the depth.
So no it is not decided in August. The depth starts to show itself as they year goes on. Players from the bottom age take the next step. Players not even in the under 16 pathways come in. The National Championships are played and by around he start of July the clearest indication of how strong the draft may be happens. It is not lineal. There are factors that change the base view that clubs have two years out and one year out.

 

[Corleone]

What is going on here, you guys have lost the plot

We are a victim a bit of our own circumstance. We had very good players Saad, Daniher, Mckenna all want out in 2020 and we ended up with 3 top 10 picks in the worse draft ever - Yep, and now we are looking to trade out of a strong draft?

Dodoro got us Gresham, Mckay and Duursma basically for free

Everyone was picking Hobbs and Tsatas where they went - Hobbs yes, Tsatas No - I wanted Clarke however many wanted Humphrey (in hindsight Humphrey was the right call IMO)

People keep saying we should be doing stuff but then dont say anything or say something ridiculously unrealistic - Nothing about my post was unrealistic.

We arent trading out if the 1st unless a bid comes, which is basically the only sensible option

I actually dont think the top 15 of this draft is that amazing compared to many others. Sure the eveness means you could get your top rated player at pick range 5-9 - It's about ensuring we land a top 10 pick AND Kako without being strong armed on draft night, it's about being Proactive rather than Reactive.

The only thing is we can get guys that cost nothing/little (Prior, Sharp, Dev Robbo, Kostanty, Hawk fall out)

Draper is not getting us a Band 1 plus we need to be going hard at all the quality FAs in 12 months time (LDU, Fogarty, Ed Richards, Rayner, Starcevich ect) so it likeky wont matter if we get one of them - 12 Months ago people would have been shocked at Battle getting Band 1 compensation. It's not unfeasible to see Draper netting that return. Those players you list; even if we were to land one of them aren't going to greatly improve our list. I don't think you're able to see how far off the pace we are. LDU comes here and he's Sheil 2.0, Rayner; he'd be a whipping boy before the bye of year 1 of his contract ...

Brad Scott isnt doing much different to his brother, his vastly improved our territory game, our inside 50 diff is great, just the personnel is

It is extremely hard to be a melbourne based club now. Your competing with 9 other sides for FAs and the majority are picking Geelong due to location the huge adv they have that produces success- Is this likely to change any time soon?

If a Bolton wants to return home, he has 2 clubs and if one is terrible then the club is picked for you, there is zero competition

The huge positive for us will come from a pick hopefully before Kako. Getting 2 top 10 talents plus some late darts would be great - I agree completely and I think we should be doing everything within our power to guarantee this outcome otherwise we might end up looking back and regretting our inaction.

Long contracts to avg players?
Redman, other clubs were offering more - I would have kept Redman to be fair
Parish, you need to take into account No Parish then also No Mckay - There is no need to give him 6 years, even if he were to leave then he leaves, we don't get MacKay? Maybe we would have put 10-15 games into Hayes instead. Who knows?

The issue with our list is only the victim of circumstance with covid 2020. Instead of getting H.Young, Serong and L.Henry.... we didnt get to watch anyone and got Reid, Cox and Perkins - Yep, agree, so we shouldn't be trading out of a strong draft. Once again, this is ensuring it through being proactive, we can trade back in next year if we need to.

The only issues i have is i wish we grabbed only 1 tall that year, said it before the draft and straight after (Bruhn or Powell were my picks)

I probably wouldve liked to have seen Hobbs, Eli and Hayes in the last round or two - Agree completely

A fair bit to respond to here, my answers are in bold above.

I appreciate the discussion.

 

[Corleone]

Yes lets trade away next years first rounder while getting rid of a contract year jake stringer on only 400k and replacing Laverde with a bottom 3 specialist like Rotham.

I can't wait to give West Coast or North a top 5 pick in 2025 because people shit their pants at journo's trying to make news in a ****ing dead trade week and/or clubs like St Kilda trying to make a rookie list manager blink.

Kako must've had a fantastic end to the season and dominated in the combine to go from 15-20 to now a top ten lock, oh wait he's been ****ing injured.

Melbourne lost Brayshay, Neale-Bullen and can potentially lose Petreca and Oliver next year.. but **** they need a small forward right now because in 2 years Pickett could be gone! What sort of idiot is going to sanction that bid/pick when you potentially have Draper, Langford, Smilie, Lalor etc still available and your midfield depth has gone to shit and that's not even counting Petreca and Oliver ****ing off the year after.

They will draft a mid with their first pick and small forward with the second rounder they got from the Crows.

It's St.Kilda who are going to bid on him, they are going to try and strong arm Pick 9 out of us on the night. Their Battle Compo gives them the luxury of bidding on Kako and worst case scenario for them is they get the best Small Forward in the draft. They have no reason not to bid on him.

Saints will finish top 6 next year in my opinion. They are going to try and bully us into giving up Pick 9 this year in a strong draft for Pick 13-16 in a weaker draft. The counter to this; best case scenario if we let it get to this point is to hope that someone like the Dogs or Melbourne are willing to take our pick and we hope they have a bad year next year.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but I don't think you're seeing what's happening here.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I don't understand people (both journos and fans) annoyed at us for not doing anything of note this trade period. We have **** all to bargain with thanks for previous trade period mishaps (hey dodo!) so im not sure what they want us to do? We pretty much get Kako and whatever scraps we can get for stringer/shiel/lav and thats it, can't make something out of nothing. We have been super active the last X number of years, every club seems to have a nothing year and this is ours. I also like the fact that if nothing is really grabbing our attention we are happy to just play it cool. No more chasing anyone and everyone just to show off that we are trade period kings (hey dodo!).

The trade period and draft is the annual hopium hit for people and they’re mad their fix has been watered down

 

[Bjchan13]

It's St.Kilda who are going to bid on him, they are going to try and strong arm Pick 9 out of us on the night. Their Battle Compo gives them the luxury of bidding on Kako and worst case scenario for them is they get the best Small Forward in the draft. They have no reason not to bid on him.

Saints will finish top 6 next year in my opinion. They are going to try and bully us into giving up Pick 9 this year in a strong draft for Pick 13-16 in a weaker draft. The counter to this; best case scenario if we let it get to this point is to hope that someone like the Dogs or Melbourne are willing to take our pick and we hope they have a bad year next year.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but I don't think you're seeing what's happening here.

They do have one. They risk us not matching their bid and they end up with Kako. Happy days for them if they genuinely want him. If he is not a true target at their pick 7 or 8 its a huge risk to take (making us pay overs) and missing out on one of their actual targets.

You are right, of course teams are going to use whatever tactics they can to try and get our pick 9 before and during the draft.

Rosa will have plenty of options, its just a matter of sifting through the shite and finding what suits us best, not St Kilda.

 

[Old Campaigner]

The truth is we are backs against the wall here. We've hamstrung ourselves with long contracts to average players. This is going to take a very long time to fix. Brads 8 year timeline is optimistic and I'm fine with that, but we need to start the process of building a proper list. That needs to start now, with this draft.

I think the long contracts thing gets overblown.

Yes Parish was a ****up but he’s also likely as not to be in the best 22 for the duration and isn’t on huge money. I’d say if he does get pushed out of the side we’d be able to facilitate a trade and get something decent in return.

Otherwise it’s Merrett, McGrath and Redman who got a lot of years I think? It’s not like the entire list is untouchable for the next five years

 

[Orange crush]

They do have one. They risk us not matching their bid and they end up with Kako. Happy days for them if they genuinely want him. If he is not a true target at their pick 7 or 8 its a huge risk to take (making us pay overs) and missing out on one of their actual targets.

You are right, of course teams are going to use whatever tactics they can to try and get our pick 9 before and during the draft.

Rosa will have plenty of options, its just a matter of sifting through the shite and finding what suits us best, not St Kilda.

Saints need the two best mids available … they would be nuts to risk. Bid on Kako

 

[Milanista28]

Ess out 31+Stringer
GWS out 37+53+56+73+Peatling
Crows out 46+F2nd

Ess in 37+46+56
GWS in 31+F2nd+Stringer
Crows in Peatling+53+73

Is this fair for everyone?

 

[Bjchan13]

Saints need the two best mids available … they would be nuts to risk. Bid on Kako

Thats what i believe also. I actually think Melbourne is the bigger risk as i could see them genuinely wanting him at their pick. They'd probably see him as having instant impact on a team what would push for top 4 again if they can sort out the mess with Oliver and Petracca.

 

[Darealrath]

Ess out 31+Stringer
GWS out 37+53+56+73+Peatling
Crows out 46+F2nd

Ess in 37+46+56
GWS in 31+F2nd+Stringer
Crows in Peatling+53+73

Is this fair for everyone?

Loving these trades you are coming up with. They actually look reasonable (without being an expert on the points the clubs need for any bids).

 

[Corleone]

What has more value? Peter Wright or our F1?

If we are going down the full rebuild path (which I believe we should tbh) then this is probably the best case scenario we could get at this time.

 

[Corleone]

I think the long contracts thing gets overblown.

Yes Parish was a ****up but he’s also likely as not to be in the best 22 for the duration and isn’t on huge money. I’d say if he does get pushed out of the side we’d be able to facilitate a trade and get something decent in return.

Otherwise it’s Merrett, McGrath and Redman who got a lot of years I think? It’s not like the entire list is untouchable for the next five years

McGrath and Parish are the ones that hurt imo. It just makes rebuilding harder as we have less options. Had we moved both out and sooked our way into band one compo for both our list would look very different and imo our results wouldn't be much worse than what we've achieved keeping them (so far)

 

[Milanista28]

View attachment 2137836

What has more value? Peter Wright or our F1?

If we are going down the full rebuild path (which I believe we should tbh) then this is probably the best case scenario we could get at this time.

I'd do this to avoid a bid, I'd do it regardless if it got us Lalor.

 

[Darealrath]

View attachment 2137836

What has more value? Peter Wright or our F1?

If we are going down the full rebuild path (which I believe we should tbh) then this is probably the best case scenario we could get at this time.

Our F1, easily. Highly likely to be top 10 and a good chance of being top 5.

 

[Old Campaigner]

McGrath and Parish are the ones that hurt imo. It just makes rebuilding harder as we have less options. Had we moved both out and sooked our way into band one compo for both our list would look very different and imo our results wouldn't be much worse than what we've achieved keeping them (so far)

Why would we move on McGrath? He’s underwhelming for a former pick 1 but he’s still a good player and the club clearly rates his leadership.

The issue is we simply don’t have many players who might bring in a decent draft pick, and the ones who would are part of our very small roster of unquestionably AFL standard players

 

[Keystone agony]

A fair bit to respond to here, my answers are in bold above.

I appreciate the discussion.

We arent trading out of a strong draft?

Were only doing the best if a bid comes before 9, which to any one with half a brain is the best outcome. Rosa said extremly unlikely 9 was moving unless outlandish deal

The tough times for Melb clubs aint changing, it can only change by the AFL changing rules. If you want success support the best sides in each northern state or Geelong

The past year we were trying to win a final.... Hayes cant be expected to get that done

 

[Old Campaigner]

Dev Robertson has requested a trade from the lions. I assume WA is his preferred destination but he’s one that a number of people here have wanted for several years

 

[jdstorm]

On what basis are we having a significantly better season?

“Better depth and balance” and a first year player is going to bring us a significantly better year?

I don’t see it at all

Agreed. With the exception of Ridley and Reid we had a pretty good injury run too. Good growth from Caldwell and Durham. With the exception of Kako addition. Obvious natural growth pathways do not seem to be there.

Value above replacement players is a thing

For instance at times last year our defence had McKay Lav Kelly Hepp Redman McGrath

That’s 5 pretty bad kicks/users

Based on rumours our VFL defence this year would be Weid Hayes Rotham Prior Saad and draft pick

That’s 4 better kicks then guys that got significant AFL minutes last year

(Assuming AFL defense is McKay Reid Ridley Redman McGrath Roberts Cox)

Last year mids struggled with size/durability and at the very least we’re adding a 188cm former top 5 pick who’s been killing it in the VFL and now has an afl ready body

In addition we likely add 1-2 more fringe afl/vfl guys that size to add depth to that group so if Tsatas or Durham or Setters or whoever is out injured/suspended the midfield still has physical presence should be a much better contested group because of it.

Wings started to solidify last year as Martin, Dursma, Jones and will be able to support if one of those guys gets hurt/misses games when we bring in more running power. Vs Having no backup for Dursma last year and Martin out of position all year.

Forward line Jake out for a faster player will be addition by subtraction, and Caddy year 2 will be more of a threat. Contract year Draper being a pest as ruck forward with solid backups in Wright/Goldy if there’s injuries there

All bodes well I think anyway

 

[BrunoV]

The draft got considered stronger as the year went on and more players who were not considered top 40 improved over summer and during the year. That is how it works. There is an initial baseline of form from under 16 and bottom age players and then it depends on how many players push up.

Just got unlucky, again, I suppose.

No pick until 38 in 2018 and no pick until 30 in 2019 and with just 9 and 31 in 2024. Mind you, it's no pick until 30 in 2019 with the pieces in play to get 2 first round picks if we are being honest that Joe Daniher sat out 2019 in which he was otherwise fit enough to play - knowledge clearly available to the decision makers. I've never seen that guy take to the field post 2018 in which he has appeared to have any physical ailment. We've all seen it and anyone who thinks Daniher missed games in 2019 and 2020 because he was physically injured ought to just trust his or her eyes.

In 2018, Port had 3 picks inside 18. I exclude the usual glut of picks GC and GWS have as I accept that unique circumstances apply.

In 2019, Freo had 7, 8 and 9 and Melbourne had 3 and 12. GC and GWS had the usual glut. Geelong had 16 and 19 (and ended up with 3 first round picks in 2020 which it used on Cameron).

Richmond is trading everything it has which is of value to trade into the first round in a 7 weeks time.

It is player movement that creates these defining draft hands. We do not move our players because we always overrate them. Fremantle has rebuilt itself twice since the supplements saga because there has been so much player movement.

This how you know that there is no overarching strategy, certainly not one which competent operators would put together. If you're not prepared to move your valuable players on to provoke change, and you already suck, the only real way forward is an innovate strategy and targeted recruiting to meet that strategy (which is what Hawthorn has done under Mitchell).

It's why there should be no trust in, tolerance for or patience afforded to anyone at Essendon. This is all business as usual.

 

[ghostdog]

Dev Robertson has requested a trade from the lions. I assume WA is his preferred destination but he’s one that a number of people here have wanted for several years

I hope we're having a look at Dev, if only for his leadership qualities.