Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Corleone]

We arent trading out of a strong draft?

Were only doing the best if a bid comes before 9, which to any one with half a brain is the best outcome. Rosa said extremly unlikely 9 was moving unless outlandish deal

The tough times for Melb clubs aint changing, it can only change by the AFL changing rules. If you want success support the best sides in each northern state or Geelong

The past year we were trying to win a final.... Hayes cant be expected to get that done

We will be trading out if a bid comes for Kako, my proposal ensures that won't happen (or at least dramatically reduces the chances)

Trying to win a final? As this year showed we aren't a MacKay away from winning a final. We need to stop this messianic complex we have at Essendon; the idea that we are one individual player away from success is simply daft.

 

[ant555]

Just got unlucky, again, I suppose.

No pick until 38 in 2018 and no pick until 30 in 2019 and with just 9 and 31 in 2024. Mind you, it's no pick until 30 in 2019 with the pieces in play to get 2 first round picks if we are being honest that Joe Daniher sat out 2019 in which he was otherwise fit enough to play - knowledge clearly available to the decision makers. I've never seen that guy take to the field post 2018 in which he has appeared to have any physical ailment. We've all seen it and anyone who thinks Daniher missed games in 2019 and 2020 because he was physically injured ought to just trust his or her eyes.

In 2018, Port had 3 picks inside 18. I exclude the usual glut of picks GC and GWS have as I accept that they're unique circumstances there.
In 2019, Freo had 7, 8 and 9 and Melbourne had 3 and 12. GC and GWS had the usual glut. Geelong had 16 and 19 (and ended up with 3 first round picks in 2020 which it used on Cameron).

Richmond is trading everything it has which is of value to trade into the first round in a 7 weeks time.

It is player movement that creates these defining draft hands. We do not move our players because we always overrate them. Fremantle has rebuilt itself twice since the supplements saga because there has been so much player movement.

This how you know that there is no overarching strategy, certainly not one which competent operators would put together. If you're not prepared to move your valuable players on to provoke change, and you already suck, the only real way forward is an innovate strategy and targeted recruiting to meet that strategy (which is what Hawthorn has done under Mitchell).

It's why there should be no trust in, tolerance for or patience afforded to anyone at Essendon. This is all business as usual.

I added to my reply above in an edit.
You asked what made this years draft strong and when they knew. The answer is still as the year went on. What Dodoro did as strategy in 2018 and 2019 has zero to do with now. What happened last year has nothing to do with now either as the bloke in charge of the list now that Vozzo hired was not involved with it as he came in too last and spent the summer setting up the VFL program. They are the facts.
Rosa is now in charge of the list. They report to him now. This is his first draft / trade period. Scott runs the football program. The bloke who ****ed up most of it is now drinking Latte in Port Melbourne with Robbo. The mistake was not having a list manager in place of Dodoro in 2023 and having the Coach / CEO / GM of footy making some choices based on around half to three quarters of a season.
No one was saying trade into 2024 last year because it is super strong. they where working out how to get into the top 5 of last years draft. We dropped a F2 to move up and get the KPF prospect we wanted.

And Richmond is losing players because they want to go not because they really want to lose them. They are doing what we should have done with Daniher for sure but the point is they want to go. Richmond would not be trading Rioli or Bolton if they did not want to leave. They have come out of their Premiership window and circumstances have allowed them to take a bit of pain. Of course no one knows if they are making the right decision. They can get all of these young guys in and simply be like Carlton for 20 years for all anyone knows. One thing with the Tigers. Their strategy last year was not trade everyone out. It was stockpile some mid range picks to trade up with GC or Brisbane who had players that would likely attract academy bids. they where just looking to grab an extra first round.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Just got unlucky, again, I suppose.

No pick until 38 in 2018 and no pick until 30 in 2019 and with just 9 and 31 in 2024. Mind you, it's no pick until 30 in 2019 with the pieces in play to get 2 first round picks if we are being honest that Joe Daniher sat out 2019 in which he was otherwise fit enough to play - knowledge clearly available to the decision makers. I've never seen that guy take to the field post 2018 in which he has appeared to have any physical ailment. We've all seen it and anyone who thinks Daniher missed games in 2019 and 2020 because he was physically injured ought to just trust his or her eyes.

In 2018, Port had 3 picks inside 18. I exclude the usual glut of picks GC and GWS have as I accept that unique circumstances apply.

In 2019, Freo had 7, 8 and 9 and Melbourne had 3 and 12. GC and GWS had the usual glut. Geelong had 16 and 19 (and ended up with 3 first round picks in 2020 which it used on Cameron).

Richmond is trading everything it has which is of value to trade into the first round in a 7 weeks time.

It is player movement that creates these defining draft hands. We do not move our players because we always overrate them. Fremantle has rebuilt itself twice since the supplements saga because there has been so much player movement.

This how you know that there is no overarching strategy, certainly not one which competent operators would put together. If you're not prepared to move your valuable players on to provoke change, and you already suck, the only real way forward is an innovate strategy and targeted recruiting to meet that strategy (which is what Hawthorn has done under Mitchell).

It's why there should be no trust in, tolerance for or patience afforded to anyone at Essendon. This is all business as usual.

You’re talking about shit that went down years ago, it’s unlikely to reflect how the club is run today even though we’re still feeling the impacts.

 

[ant555]

I hope we're having a look at Dev, if only for his leadership qualities.

No disagreeing but how do we have a look ? we have no capitol. The players we have who want to go are not on the Lions radar. Do we want to end up in the same spot next year by trading out future picks ? It is likely we will have to shed a future 3rd or 4th in a pick trade for this year to make up points for a Kako bid before or after pick 9.
I agree Dev is the sort of player we need to look at but the reality is that the next line is how do we get him ?
It is why the media keeps coming up with why are Essendon so quiet ? They throw up examples of players we should be chasing but we have nothing to spend to buy.

 

[Big Fresh]

If Kako gets bid on and we end up trading pick 9 into next year we will be talking about it in five years time as a mistake.

We have missed so many opportunities in the past. We finally get a "free" hit with Kako and instead of getting two first round players in a strong draft we are looking to trade out of it. It makes absolutely no sense at all.

We should be pushing and trying to move up the order. If that costs us a F1 then so be it. I would rather 2 this year (including Kako) than Kako this year and two first rounders next year.

The list is cooked. We need to turn it over and get games into youth as soon as possible.

I've had too much to drink for a Thursday.

How would Kako be a free hit if Essendon paid a first round pick to get him?

 

[ant555]

How would Kako be a free hit if Essendon paid a first round pick to get him?

He is not which is what some do not understand . The rules have changed so we can match any bids now but yes it is not a free hit

 

[fairbump_playon]

Essendon will have pick 7 because of the leverde and 9 trade

Would you trade Perkins, Cox and Reid to move up to 7 from pick 9?

I definitely would, it would be like erasing the 2020 draft and starting again

 

[ghostdog]

No disagreeing but how do we have a look ? we have no capitol. The players we have who want to go are not on the Lions radar. Do we want to end up in the same spot next year by trading out future picks ? It is likely we will have to shed a future 3rd or 4th in a pick trade for this year to make up points for a Kako bid before or after pick 9.
I agree Dev is the sort of player we need to look at but the reality is that the next line is how do we get him ?
It is why the media keeps coming up with why are Essendon so quiet. They throw up examples of players we should be chasing but we have nothing to spend to buy.

Just worth having a look at. If we can we can. If not, oh well.

 

[ant555]

Just worth having a look at. If we can we can. If not, oh well.

They will have had the discussion internally. The have a look list at AFL clubs is generally 30 to 50 odd players long. You can take that as just normal activity every year.

 

[Old Campaigner]

It is why the media keeps coming up with why are Essendon so quiet ? They throw up examples of players we should be chasing but we have nothing to spend to buy.

it also ignores the likelihood that we are chasing players but they’ve chosen other clubs

 

[ant555]

it also ignores the likelihood that we are chasing players but they’ve chosen other clubs

 

[BrunoV]

You’re talking about shit that went down years ago, it’s unlikely to reflect how the club is run today even though we’re still feeling the impacts.

I didn't say it impacts anything, I am illustrating how nothing has changed.

Edit: Actually, let me rephrase, because I misread you post.

What would you point to that indicates that we still don't just chronically overrate our list?

 

[Old Campaigner]

I didn't say it impacts anything, I am illustrating how nothing has changed,

I don’t think we’ll know for several years if anything has changed.

 

[ant555]

I didn't say it impacts anything, I am illustrating how nothing has changed,

Something did change. We are not in low on picks because we just traded them out on some guy from another club. We are low on the third and fourth round picks as that was the price in the Duursma trade and to get Roberts and Lual along with moving up to get Caddy. On top of that we did not know we would need points for Kako as the rules where not changed until mid year and he was already considered to be a chance to go before we could match a bid. There was an overflow into the 2023 draft as the Setterfield cost us a F4 in that trade in 2022 as well

 

[BrunoV]

I don’t think we’ll know for several years if anything has changed.

We will not know the outcome of the faith in the list I say we overrate for several years, that is true.

We know whether processes / strategies are changing in real time. I'm demonstrating how they are not changing, how the same problems are continuing to occur and are characteristic of the way the Essendon organisation does things. No one is really disputing that point. It would be very interesting to discuss how it can be that administrations can change so dramatically without substantive change ever being effected. It is nothing new. How many chairmen, CEOs and coaches did Melbourne have in its 30 to 40 year dark age post Norm Smith, Richmond between 1980 and 2010 and Carlton between 2001 and 2022? You've got the Fremantle disaster of its first 20 years and GC's first 12 years, too. I think we all accept organisational/institutional culture is a thing, don't we?

 

[ant555]

We will not know the outcome of the faith in the list I say we overrate for several years, that is true.

We know whether processes / strategies are changing in real time. I'm demonstrating how they are not changing, how the same problems are continuing to occur and are characteristic of the way the Essendon organisation does things. No one is really disputing that point. It would be very interesting to discuss how it can be that administrations can change so dramatically without substantive change ever being effected. It is nothing new. How many chairmen, CEOs and coaches did Melbourne have in its 30 to 40 year dark age post Norm Smith, Richmond between 1980 and 2010 and Carlton between 2001 and 2022? You've got the Fremantle disaster of its first 20 years and GC's first 12 years, too. I think we all accept organisational/institutional culture is a thing, don't we?

Well they finally go the guy out who they kept backing every year did they not ? weather you rate Scott as a coach or not it does not change the fact that the list Manager is Matthew Rosa and this is "his" first trade / draft period as list manager. It is a new set of eyes. It is a new guy with a big say.

 

[Old Campaigner]

We will not know the outcome of the faith in the list I say we overrate for several years, that is true.

We know whether processes / strategies are changing in real time. I'm demonstrating how they are not changing, how the same problems are continuing to occur and are characteristic of the way the Essendon organisation does things. No one is really disputing that point. It would be very interesting to discuss how it can be that administrations can change so dramatically without substantive change ever being effected. It is nothing new. How many chairmen, CEOs and coaches did Melbourne have in its 30 to 40 year dark age post Norm Smith, Richmond between 1980 and 2010 and Carlton between 2001 and 2022? You've got the Fremantle disaster of its first 20 years and GC's first 12 years, too. I think we all accept organisational/institutional culture is a thing, don't we?

You seem to have honed in on a lack of player movement as the visible symptom of a system that isn’t changing.

The examples you have given involve clubs backed by a period of competency where they could identify, draft and develop surplus good players that other list managers are prepared to pay a high price for.

There’s maybe a handful of established players on our list who would net us a first round pick if traded, and we need them. Dodoro might’ve hoarded players like a spinster accumulating cats, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Rosa needs to go full firesale mode if he doesn’t think we’ll benefit for it

 

[Keystone agony]

We will be trading out if a bid comes for Kako, my proposal ensures that won't happen (or at least dramatically reduces the chances)

Trying to win a final? As this year showed we aren't a MacKay away from winning a final. We need to stop this messianic complex we have at Essendon; the idea that we are one individual player away from success is simply daft.

Whats your proposal?

We were top 4 after 17 rounds, your talking in hindsight. The club also doesnt believe there just 1 player away from winning a premiership, where have they said so?

 

[bombreys]

with the list as is there aren’t any exciting moves that a competent list management team can make.

I also think people are sleeping on how good Kako is. That we get him basically free is very exciting.

Plus Tsatas will finally have an afl body next season so we are adding 2x top 10 level picks to the best 22 next season even without doing anything.

On top of that the reputation of this draft being so high is going to hugely inflate the value of our pick if we trade out.

To the point we’re we could be adding 3FRP next season.

I do like the optimism, but I think people are putting too much into Kako. He will be subject to the Brad Scott 'he's not ready' treatment for at least his first couple of years. Under Scott, first year players have played in 28 (including 9 as sub) of a possible 161 games across two seasons (so 14 a season with 4.5 of those as sub). That's with 4 & 3 selections. Those figures multiply if you want to add the 0 games from MSD picks and 0 games from RD picks across both years.

It's a huge leap just assuming Kako will be best 22.

With Tsatas, I think the only way he gets a look in is through injury. Even then (in the event of an injury), does he come in ahead of Setterfield? Or is it like the Hayes situation where Weideman (the senior player) is ahead?

 

[Keystone agony]

I didn't say it impacts anything, I am illustrating how nothing has changed.

Edit: Actually, let me rephrase, because I misread you post.

What would you point to that indicates that we still don't just chronically overrate our list?

By trading out mature aged players like Shiel, Lav and Stringer ? and not offering Kelly more years?

 

[Keystone agony]

I do like the optimism, but I think people are putting too much into Kako. He will be subject to the Brad Scott 'he's not ready' treatment for at least his first couple of years. Under Scott, first year players have played in 28 (including 9 as sub) of a possible 161 games across two seasons (so 14 a season with 4.5 of those as sub). That's with 4 & 3 selections. Those figures multiply if you want to add the 0 games from MSD picks and 0 games from RD picks across both years.

It's a huge leap just assuming Kako will be best 22.

With Tsatas, I think the only way he gets a look in is through injury. Even then (in the event of an injury), does he come in ahead of Setterfield? Or is it like the Hayes situation where Weideman (the senior player) is ahead?

The difference is Kako is ready made compared to Caddy and Eli our last 2 First rounders, he is also an urgent list need. The other major difference is positionally he is a small forward, which requires less physical aspects compared to a KPF and an inside midfielder. Eli has shown he is well and truly not ready when hes played, Scott has done the right thing in not playing him

Every 18 year old needs a good PS to play round 1, but if he trains 80-90% of it and doesnt miss a beat 4 weeks lead in and shows hes capable then hes playing round 1

 

[bombreys]

The difference is Kako is ready made compared to Caddy and Eli our last 2 First rounders, he is also an urgent list need. The other major difference is positionally he is a small forward, which requires less physical aspects compared to a KPF and an inside midfielder. Eli has shown he is well and truly not ready when hes played, Scott has done the right thing in not playing him

Every 18 year old needs a good PS to play round 1, but if he trains 80-90% of it and doesnt miss a beat 4 weeks lead in and shows hes capable then hes playing round 1

I guess we'll see. Caddy & Tsatas were both described as ready-made - as was Roberts.

I agree Tsatas was probably not ready (arguably could/should have played towards the end of this season), but you'll see the same thing happen with Kako next year - he'll see plenty of time in the VFL.

 

[Keystone agony]

I guess we'll see. Caddy & Tsatas were both described as ready-made - as was Roberts.

I agree Tsatas was probably not ready (arguably could/should have played towards the end of this season), but you'll see the same thing happen with Kako next year - he'll see plenty of time in the VFL.

Tsatas was definitely not ready made for an AFL midfielder, he was light and not physical which is required for inside mid, thats before we even discuss his kicking which certainky wasnt ready for AFL level and has been proven so

Not many KPFs that play bash and crash walk in round 1. Check JUH, Walter, Cadman, Sam Darcy, Watts ect Talls and KPFs take alot of time re Caddy

Small Forwards rated so high Kozzie, Watson, Stephenson (pseudo small fwd) all played early and straight away

Its not as physical and combative as the tall fwds (Caddy) or mids (Tsatas)

You basically need speed and cleanliness as a small forward

Theres a reason many mids in half ok sides start elsewhere (Pou, Sheezel, Naicos, Humphrey ect)

Its hard to say one or the other for any kid. Its not that simple. It will depend on form.... hes ready for his role. All top 15 small forwards are

 

[rusman]

I guess we'll see. Caddy & Tsatas were both described as ready-made - as was Roberts.

I agree Tsatas was probably not ready (arguably could/should have played towards the end of this season), but you'll see the same thing happen with Kako next year - he'll see plenty of time in the VFL.

Tsatas played a handful of games in his draft year. Whoever described him as ready made has Nfi or was taking a big guess based on measurements.

 

[bombreys]

Tsatas was definitely not ready made for an AFL midfielder, he was light and not physical which is required for inside mid, thats before we even discuss his kicking which certainky wasnt ready for AFL level and has been proven so

Not many KPFs that play bash and crash walk in round 1. Check JUH, Walter, Cadman, Sam Darcy, Watts ect Talls and KPFs take alot of time re Caddy

Small Forwards rated so high Kozzie, Watson, Stephenson (pseudo small fwd) all played early and straight away

Its not as physical and combative as the tall fwds (Caddy) or mids (Tsatas)

You basically need speed and cleanliness as a small forward

Theres a reason many mids in half ok sides start elsewhere (Pou, Sheezel, Naicos, Humphrey ect)

Its hard to say one or the other for any kid. Its not that simple. It will depend on form.... hes ready for his role. All top 15 small forwards are

(I think) it was Scott who said Tsatas had great flexibility and could be played on a wing or either flank. I do certainly agree he was not ready for inside mid time.

I don't think it will depend on form - it didn't for Roberts. And we were screaming out for a small defender and ball use out of the d50.

Going off this year and last, I see Kako playing majority VFL.