Recruiting AFL Trade & Free Agency XII - 💰💰💰

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Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Unless they get Lalor, Id have preferred picks 12 and 14.

 

[JayJ20]

They've accumulate quite a bit of first and second round talent since 2021 which represent their return to the first and second round after deals post 2018 premiership.

2021: Chesser (pick 14, 32 games), Hough (pick 31, 53 games), Bazzo (pick 37, 21 games)
2022: Culley (MSD pick 1, 8 games), Ginbey (pick, 40 games), Hewitt (pick 14, 14 games), Barnett (pick 23, 2 games), Burgiel (pick 29, 0 games)
2023: Maric (MSD pick 1, 19 games), H. Reid (pick 1, 20 games), A. Reid (pick 30, 0 games), Hall (pick 38, 3 games)
2024: pick 12 and pick 26.

That's 14 picks in 4 years of first and second round players. I include Culley and Maric because they were 19 year olds takes at 1 in the MSD when the clear consensus seems to have been that they were top 30 calibre players. I don't know much about a lot of players in the list but they're playing when fit. Barenett, for example, is a very highly regarded ruckman. A. Reid is a ruck-sized KPP so I am not worried about 2 games for their collective 3 years on the list. Players 'making it' is very self-fulfilling when you combine a rebuild, football department competence and first and second round picks. I'd expect 10 to 12 of these players to 10 year players, without looking at rookies and trades over the same period.

I can see why they've gone for Baker. It's been a long time being beaten up on the bottom, even a bit longer than usual for the club that has turned tanking into an art form.

How many of them are top end talent? I like North's build (at least the midfield) much better which is who they'll be competing with. They'll miss out on a Lalor or Draper who I believe could have taken their young midfield to another level.

There's also a real possibility that they lose Harley Reid.

Bad teams should make use of their time in the bottom by focusing on elite talent. My biggest criticism of Essendon's list build is not recruiting high end talent that can mostly be found in the first 4 or 5 draft selections. The likes of Petracca, Dusty, Bont, Cotchin etc. They have Reid, but they need more than that. For a team to actually finish that low and then not capitalise on it isn't great.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Only a day left of this shit thank god

 

[katana]

west coast won't lose reid. they barely ever lose players back to vic.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Although I guess we can all look forward to the usual temporarily embarrassed AFL list managers posting all their draft night pick trades so they have an excuse to talk about all the first round draftees we won’t actually end up getting

 

[Keystone agony]

I think there is an even 8 but a bit of a drop after that, not saying they cant be stars. The real early picks can be played safe by clubs these days. Banking a Jagga, Draper we know what were getting with them but their ceiling isnt as great as potentially some in that next group (Lindsay, Trainor, Travaglia, Bo Allen)

 

[Keystone agony]

west coast won't lose reid. they barely ever lose players back to vic.

They barely finished bottom 2-3 for 3-4 straight years before either

 

[Call Me Cake]

west coast won't lose reid.

Big call.

 

[bombreys]

west coast won't lose reid. they barely ever lose players back to vic.

Agreed. There's been no word he's unhappy there. And they (the Club) seem to be doing everything in their power to keep him happy and build the team around him. He sounded super excited about Baker. He'll stay.

 

[BrunoV]

How many of them are top end talent? I like North's build (at least the midfield) much better which is who they'll be competing with. They'll miss out on a Lalor or Draper who I believe could have taken their young midfield to another level.

There's also a real possibility that they lose Harley Reid.

Bad teams should make use of their time in the bottom by focusing on elite talent. My biggest criticism of Essendon's list build is not recruiting high end talent that can mostly be found in the first 4 or 5 draft selections. The likes of Petracca, Dusty, Bont, Cotchin etc. They have Reid, but they need more than that. For a team to actually finish that low and then not capitalise on it isn't great.

North has definitely amassed an intimidating collecting of midfield players but it all has to work together. So it doesn't really matter to me that their 5th an 6th ranked midfielders are great individuals, it is the combination of players that is important.

In that way I think it is arguable that West Coast have the makings of a complimentary group that would equal North. They have at least 3 players with top end midfield attributes available from that group of players and they're different. H. Reid is the obvious one, pure ball hunter with the strength to work through a stoppage and use the ball as well as anyone while doing it, a generational talent. Hewitt has elite speed and skill in that role as more of a breakaway / Rozee-style of on-baller - I would say he has better potential in this role than any of the North mids (who are more rounded). Ginby has elite physical capacity in terms of his size, athleticism and aggression, he arguably the regista who holds everything together, he will certainly do the grunt work. I'd say Ginby is better at the things he is good at than any of the North mids (who are again more rounded players). Chesser is a pretty well balanced player, very much in the mould of someone like Warner or Shuey and could play alongside just about any combination.

If Reid and Hewitt realise their potential as players, for example, how many sides would have 2 midfielders in one team that can do that level of damage coming out of a clearance? It's a work in progress. I have not done a deep dive on West Coast's players so I cannot say whether Hall has elite abilities, for example. Is Culley a guy who could play inside at a high enough level?

I think Barnett and A. Reid have the ability to be elite talls.

As for the top 4 and 5 in a drafts. Have a look through each draft since 2015 and break it into picks 3 to 12 and then 10 to 25 (I chose the crossover of picks 10 to 12 and a longer tail on the second group because recruiting gets even more subjective from pick 15 onward). Every year there is a mad rush for the highest picks and yet we are not getting anything like the consistent return on the earlier picks that justifies the hype. It is true that there are drafts when a top 3 or even 4 really separates away from the pack and they're the years you don't downgrade. It is almost always evident, too. 2018 is the one time the group seemed to drop all the way down to 12 and of a varied type of player that on reflection you could shuffle a number of ways based on needs. 2019 had Rowell, Anderson, Jackson and Ash (though who knows, maybe half of the teams would not have taken a ruckman that high); 2021 had JHF, Darcy (not part of the pool), Callaghan and Daicos (not part of the pool); and 2023 had Reid, McKercher, Walter (who wasn't part of the pool) and Duursma before it got real subjective.

I'd say you only needed pick 3 in these 3 of the last 9 drafts, though in every year we are told there is a top 3 and then a top 6 that everyone must have.

 

[naraku]

Big melts on the WCE forum, none of them are happy with the deal.

 

[bombreys]

I don't think there's that much difference between 12 and 15 in talent anyway, but the deal is still awful for West Coast. It would have been ok if they kept both, but to give one for a 27y/o at their stage of rebuild? Rosa wouldn't survive if he did that let alone a bottom team like West Coast.

They'll be picking like a finals side with a bad list. They could have done better far better.

I think 'awful' is a tad harsh.

Baker will help them. You need older guys and 'middle aged' guys (i.e. 24-28) to help any rebuild. Plus, it at least sounds like he's a great leader.

They have a heap of kids. Compare their under 21 crew to ours -

They have 15 players under 21, averaging 13.2 games played.

We have 10 under 21, averaging 4.5 games played.

That's a huge difference. And they'll still be adding another kid with pick 12 - and again with 26.

And for as much crap as Owies cops, he's not as terrible as his punchable scone would lead us to believe. He's kicked 60 goals over the past two seasons. That's more than all but two Essendon players.

Not suggesting they've robbed Carlton/Richmond or even that they've won the trade, but it's far from the disaster some are making it out to be.

 

[ghostdog]

Dodoro head to the eagles?

Depends which Dodoro we'd have to deal with for Harley. He's notoriously difficult.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm guessing GC want all of the Richmond junk picks after 24 as part of the Rioli deal.

 

[The Dustbin]

west coast won't lose reid. they barely ever lose players back to vic.

Yeah, but his girlfriend and future brother in law to X lives in Melbourne.

 

[ghostdog]

Pyke's language is interesting, talking about honouring WC's commitment to Baker.
The subtext seems to position Barrass to ask himself why Hawthorn hasn't done the same for him. In other words, that WC values you Tom, where Hawks don't actually care.

 

[katana]

Yeah, but his girlfriend and future brother in law to X lives in Melbourne.

he's 19, the chances of that relationship amounting to anything more are very low.

 

[dank420_]

he's 19, the chances of that relationship amounting to anything more are very low.

But the fact that he's only 19 increases the chance he will do something silly and move interstate for it.