After Round 8: How Do The Top 9 Teams Stack Up?

[DohjDuckDipDive]

Well, isn't this Some Season we're seeing.
If you haven't looked at the ladder since the dust settled today, let me summarise it for you: it starts with 3 teams on 24 points and continues with 6 more on 20 points.
It's not until 10th and 11th that you get two wins behind top spot on 16 points.

With the year's dramatic fall for Sydney and Hawthorn as well as Port's return and the rise of St Kilda, plus the last two weeks of Adelaide shockers, this season has certainly been unpredictable. To say the current top 9 is cemented would be folly.

But in an attempt to get a better understanding of how teams are tracking in terms of opposing team quality, I have drawn a line through the ladder after the last 20-point team (Fremantle at 9th) and run some numbers.

Here's the meat of it, presented in ladder order:
1. Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W3
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W3L2
2. GWS
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W2L2
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
3. West Coast
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W4L1*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W2L1
4. Port Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
5. Geelong
Vs Top 9: 2 Matches W2*
Vs Bot 9: 6 Matches W3L3
6. St Kilda
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W1L2
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W4L1
7. Richmond
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
8. Western Bulldogs
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
9. Fremantle
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W2L3*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W3

*Geelong, West Coast and Fremantle are the only teams to have recorded an interstate win vs Top 9 teams, with one apiece.

Some observations:
- Geelong has had the easiest draw so far with only 2 of their 8 matches vs top 9 teams. Adelaide and St Kilda have also had it a bit easier, with 3 of their 8 against Top 9. On the other hand, Fremantle and West Coast have had it a little harder than average, playing 5 of their 9 matches so far against Top 9 teams.
- Lions and mice: Geelong and Adelaide have registered losses against Bot 9 opponents only.
- The real flat trackers? Port, Richmond and the Bulldogs are all unbeaten (W4) vs Bot 9, but sit on one win from 4 outings vs Top 9.

That's what I notice straight up. I'm sure there are other factoids and perspectives to be wrangled out of this data so I'm interested to read what everyone else sees in it.

Also if anyone wants the detailed data (specific opponent W/L for each team) to do their own analysis, let me know and I can post that as well.

Peace

 

[samFFC]

Good analysis. I assume you mean top 9 and bottom 9?

Also I think it shows what many seem to feel, that Richmond/Freo are beating the lower ranked sides so may fade as season progresses, whereas Adelaide and GWS can get it done against top teams. WC is a surprise in terms of their top v bottom record but those wins have 3/4 been in Perth.

 

[DohjDuckDipDive]

Good analysis. I assume you mean top 9 and bottom 9?

Also I think it shows what many seem to feel, that Richmond/Freo are beating the lower ranked sides so may fade as season progresses, whereas Adelaide and GWS can get it done against top teams. WC is a surprise in terms of their top v bottom record but those wins have 3/4 been in Perth.

Uhh yeah should be bottom 9. Will fix that.

Edit: Regarding your other points, I'd hardly say GWS' 2 wins from 4 outings is "getting it done" vs top teams. Note that both of those wins were in Sydney. Also all 3 of Adelaide's wins vs Top 9 teams were in Adelaide. Every team does better at home.
Edit 2: in fact, this is such a misconception, that I'm adding some info to the original post. Only 3 top 9 teams have beaten a top 9 team interstate this year: West Coast (vs Port @ AO), Geelong (vs Fremantle @ DS), and Fremantle (vs Richmond @ MCG).

 

[WestCoast05]

Interesting data.

Should email AFL360 so some semi-intelligent footy analysis can go on beyond Robbo simpky stating "...they play for each other..."

 

[Topkent]

Uhh yeah should be bottom 9. Will fix that.

Edit: Regarding your other points, I'd hardly say GWS' 2 wins from 4 outings is "getting it done" vs top teams. Note that both of those wins were in Sydney. Also all 3 of Adelaide's wins vs Top 9 teams were in Adelaide. Every team does better at home.
Edit 2: in fact, this is such a misconception, that I'm adding some info to the original post. Only 3 top 9 teams have beaten a top 9 team interstate this year: West Coast (vs Port @ AO), Geelong (vs Fremantle @ DS), and Fremantle (vs Richmond @ MCG).

Well if you include Melbourne who has a top 6 percentage then we beat Adelaide over there

 

[Bokonon_]

Uhh yeah should be bottom 9. Will fix that.

Edit: Regarding your other points, I'd hardly say GWS' 2 wins from 4 outings is "getting it done" vs top teams. Note that both of those wins were in Sydney. Also all 3 of Adelaide's wins vs Top 9 teams were in Adelaide. Every team does better at home.
Edit 2: in fact, this is such a misconception, that I'm adding some info to the original post. Only 3 top 9 teams have beaten a top 9 team interstate this year: West Coast (vs Port @ AO), Geelong (vs Fremantle @ DS), and Fremantle (vs Richmond @ MCG).

Just one small bone to pick. Canberrans feel quite strongly they are not part of Sydney. It was the Capital Giants that beat Port and the Bulldogs. Substantially no difference as they were home games.

 

[Kingfish73]

WCE supporters very sensitive about flat track bully term. Desperately wanting to pass the flag.

Competition very close...analysis complete

 

[Beutbrute]

WCE supporters very sensitive about flat track bully term. Desperately wanting to pass the flag.

Competition very close...analysis complete

Yeah, we wouldn't want truth to get in the way of a good narrative would we


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[sprockets]

Beating top 9 teams and losing to bottom 9 teams is better than losing to top 9 teams and beating bottom 9 teams? Doesn't compute and besides, the reason bottom teams are there is because some top teams put them there.

 

[BPikkers]

Yeah the Pies are good against top 9 but struggle against bottom 9. Hasn't helped us at all.

 

[The Swert]

- The real flat trackers? With one win apiece, Port, St Kilda, Richmond and the Bulldogs are the worst Top 9 teams vs Top 9 opponents.

Good analysis except for this point. Of course teams in the lower part of the 8 have a worse record than teams at the top. That doesn't make them flat track bullies, it makes them worse.

 

[WestCoast05]

WCE supporters very sensitive about flat track bully term. Desperately wanting to pass the flag.

Absolutely we want to pass that flag on. If unfortunately the fox footy team manages to stick it to you it will persist for a couple seasons after it no longer applies.

The worst part about that is when watching fox footy instead of getting to watch those who should have actual footy nuance analyse your team and upcoming matches in an informative manner they just throw the well trotted line out because they got on the piss the night before instead of preparing properly for their cushy job.

 

[Mattdougie]

Lol I know who I will be backing to win later in the year when it matters and it isn't a few of the teams above.

Where teams have played and losing margins are neglected here which doesn't surprise me Coz it doesn't fit the argument above.

Dogs could lose the next 2 and I still think we are yet to play anyone we won't beat in September.

 

[Mattdougie]

Absolutely we want to pass that flag on. If unfortunately the fox footy team manages to stick it to you it will persist for a couple seasons after it no longer applies.

The worst part about that is when watching fox footy instead of getting to watch those who should have actual footy nuance analyse your team and upcoming matches in an informative manner they just throw the well trotted line out because they got on the piss the night before instead of preparing properly for their cushy job.

No longer applies??

You have played no contenders away from home yet. Some may argue Port I don't think they are genuine.

You lost to the Hawks at the G which was god awful.

Flat track bully is 100% real still.

 

[Son_of_Gero]

as even of a season as ever I've seen for a very long time. If Sydney start winning and find a way to sneak back into the eight, they have as much of a chance as what the top 2 will.

 

[WCEbrody]

Just so we're clear, a flat track bully dominates inferior opposition and loses against the best teams. In what scenario have either happened in regards to West Coast this season?
Our biggest win has been by 40 points and our 2 losses have come against teams below us, who both could miss out on the top 8.

 

[DohjDuckDipDive]

Beating top 9 teams and losing to bottom 9 teams is better than losing to top 9 teams and beating bottom 9 teams? Doesn't compute and besides, the reason bottom teams are there is because some top teams put them there.

I wasn't making a quality judgment in the point you're referring to, just an observation.

If you want my opinion: I do think it's more romantic for a team to be a giant-slayer. Even if you're outside the 8 and lose plenty of games, if you can beat Adelaide at AO, it builds belief and hope - mindset: "we can beat anyone this year".

Whereas, even though beating bottom teams is essential for building a strong ladder position at the end of the year, that's not exciting for a fan if you don't win vs real contenders. The mindset: "we'll probably make finals but drop out first or second round." How depressing.

So what do I think is actually better? Neither. There are no easy wins this season (...except Brisbane).

(Note that Adelaide probably don't fit within either group after losing to 10th and 16th in the last two weeks, I certainly don't know what to think. We'll know a lot better where they're at after they play Freo and Geelong in rds 10 & 11.)

 

[DohjDuckDipDive]

Good analysis except for this point. Of course teams in the lower part of the 8 have a worse record than teams at the top. That doesn't make them flat track bullies, it makes them worse.

I will make an edit to that. My point is incomplete because I failed to mention their excellent record vs Bot 9. Hence the flat track question.

 

[Port01]

Happy to be classed as flat trackers, it is far better than we have been the last couple of years, and pretty accurate although we have been competitive in our 3 losses.
Hard label to get rid of though ie:
rd 6, 2015: West coast come to adelaide desperate to get rid of the flat track tag and beat port, proving they can travel
rd 9, 2016: West coast come to adelaide desperate to get rid of the flat track tag and beat port, proving they can travel
rd 7, 2017: West coast come to adelaide desperate to get rid of the flat track tag and beat port, proving they can travel

 

[DohjDuckDipDive]

Just one small bone to pick. Canberrans feel quite strongly they are not part of Sydney. It was the Capital Giants that beat Port and the Bulldogs. Substantially no difference as they were home games.

Fair point! I forgot that GWS play in Canberra for some home matches. You're right that it makes no difference though

 

[Quokka]

Lol I know who I will be backing to win later in the year when it matters and it isn't a few of the teams above.

Where teams have played and losing margins are neglected here which doesn't surprise me Coz it doesn't fit the argument above.

Dogs could lose the next 2 and I still think we are yet to play anyone we won't beat in September.

And yet there's every chance at least one of those teams you're not backing will suprise you with some important wins same as the dogs did last year for a lot of people.

 

[DohjDuckDipDive]

No longer applies??

You have played no contenders away from home yet. Some may argue Port I don't think they are genuine.

You lost to the Hawks at the G which was good awful.

Flat track bully is 100% real still.

If you want a dismissive label to apply to West Coast, please use something that's based in reality. Maybe "MCG wallflowers"?
Flat track bullies would have beaten "good awful" Hawthorn.

 

[Angus Young]

Well, isn't this Some Season we're seeing.
If you haven't looked at the ladder since the dust settled today, let me summarise it for you: it starts with 3 teams on 24 points and continues with 6 more on 20 points.
It's not until 10th and 11th that you get two wins behind top spot on 16 points.

With the year's dramatic fall for Sydney and Hawthorn as well as Port's return and the rise of St Kilda, plus the last two weeks of Adelaide shockers, this season has certainly been unpredictable. To say the current top 9 is cemented would be folly.

But in an attempt to get a better understanding of how teams are tracking in terms of opposing team quality, I have drawn a line through the ladder after the last 20-point team (Fremantle at 9th) and run some numbers.

Here's the meat of it, presented in ladder order:
1. Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W3
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W3L2
2. GWS
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W2L2
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
3. West Coast
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W4L1*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W2L1
4. Port Adelaide
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
5. Geelong
Vs Top 9: 2 Matches W2*
Vs Bot 9: 6 Matches W3L3
6. St Kilda
Vs Top 9: 3 Matches W1L2
Vs Bot 9: 5 Matches W4L1
7. Richmond
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
8. Western Bulldogs
Vs Top 9: 4 Matches W1L3
Vs Bot 9: 4 Matches W4
9. Fremantle
Vs Top 9: 5 Matches W2L3*
Vs Bot 9: 3 Matches W3

*Geelong, West Coast and Fremantle are the only teams to have recorded an interstate win vs Top 9 teams, with one apiece.

Some observations:
- Geelong has had the easiest draw so far with only 2 of their 8 matches vs top 9 teams. Adelaide and St Kilda have also had it a bit easier, with 3 of their 8 against Top 9. On the other hand, Fremantle and West Coast have had it a little harder than average, playing 5 of their 9 matches so far against Top 9 teams.
- Lions and mice: Geelong and Adelaide have registered losses against Bot 9 opponents only.
- The real flat trackers? Port, Richmond and the Bulldogs are all unbeaten (W4) vs Bot 9, but sit on one win from 4 outings vs Top 9.

That's what I notice straight up. I'm sure there are other factoids and perspectives to be wrangled out of this data so I'm interested to read what everyone else sees in it.

Also if anyone wants the detailed data (specific opponent W/L for each team) to do their own analysis, let me know and I can post that as well.

Peace

Haven't got time to read it properly now but love your work OP.

 

[wing it]

No longer applies??

You have played no contenders away from home yet. Some may argue Port I don't think they are genuine.

You lost to the Hawks at the G which was good awful.

Flat track bully is 100% real still.

Check the interstate record of your precious Bullies this year, then get back to us with who the real flat trackers are in 2017.

Probably due to injuries though, right? So brave.

 

[BuffDog]

Even though Melbourne are tenth I'd say you have to include them in such an analysis given their percentage and their most recent performance against Adelaide.

They've defeated two top 8 teams in Adelaide and St. Kilda and really should have beaten Freo. I'd consider them to have greater upside than teams such as Freo and Richmond.

There is daylight growing between 1-10 and 11-18