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IMO there would be a greater chance of being spied on with technologically advanced telescopes than being visited by satelites or alien aircraft.
That's the thing that causes me doubt.
I'd assume any species with interstellar travel capabilities would have long range scanning/sensor/photomapping capabilities that would negate the need to send small ships down to the surface and risk exposure.
Unless they worked out that parking a big mothership close enough would result in our own telescopes/satellites/whatever discovering them, resulting in the decision to try slip small ships past our detection devices instead.