All GWS Rumour And Speculation Thread - Vol 1

[mwalker]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

I spoke to Dane Swan's grandfather at the Merimbula bowls club last weekend and he said Swan has been offered 1.9 mil by Sheedy to go to GWS. When I asked him if he would go he said "wouldn't you for that kind of money?". I then said "So he's going then?" and he said "No, no, I didn't say that", but the way he was talking it didn't sound good!

After what Sheeds wrote about us a few weeks back, I hope they all tell him to go get fuc%ed. How could you play for a guy that after what he said about our coach and playing list...

I know it is a business and all and for some money will talk but I could not look at that sux face everyday knowing what he thought about us during the year.

 

[look at him goooo!]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

This.

Also agree with Jerry. In no way do I want to lose Swanny, but you cannot blame a guy for chasing that type of money. If he helps us to another flag in 2011, he'll have given us 2 flags, great service and 2 x 1st round draft picks as a parting gift. At 28, that is a great return and I'd wish him all the best. That would give us 3 x 1st round choices for the 2012 draft should be bank the 2 from Swanny. Keeps us well and trully in the mix.

2013 draft. 2012 is compromised

 

[Scodog10]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

2013 draft. 2012 is compromised

I'm 99% sure the 2012 draft isn't compromised the only problem is that's the year club's will start using their compensation picks. GWS get only one year of draft concessions but 2 years access to uncontracted players.

As for losing Swanny I personally don't think it will happen, I would be absolutely amazed if GWS targeted him in front of Thomas or Pendles as they are much better players to have as the face of the club. Take a look at Thomas for example in his first season alone his jumper outsold Buckley's at merchandise outlets, GWS are much more likely to target him IMO and what Sheedy said in the paper was more than likely just a ruse. I don't want to lose Swanny but I would prefer to lose him than Thomas or Pendles.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Don't worry guys, he won't be offered that.

I once read an article by this guy Kevin Sheedy who said that Dane Swan was a heart and soul player but in the end just a really good honest battler. He's not elite, he's just got no weapons. If he's the best player in a team the team's definitely not good enough and can't win a premiership. Cotchin's better. Winderlich and Kepler are examples of elite players, this Dane dud comes from Westmeadows and went to school in Gladstone Park.



In all honesty though, if GWS go down the Gold Coast route of recruiting 1 superstar, they'd be stupid to recruit Dane as he'll be 28 in the year that they recruit him. They'll be chasing guys like Martin, Scully, Pendlebury, Tippet, Andrew Swallow, Buddy, Jack Riewoldt, Kruezer, Murphy, Hill, etc. Swan would just be a poor fit as he'll be 30 plus when they're challenging. If they split the cash and go for 2 then it won't matter because we'll be able to offer something close to it anyway. Swanny's a superstar but he's just not marketable enough to justify that kind of coin. He's not a pretty footballer and he's not a media darling. It just won't happen.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

I'm 99% sure the 2012 draft isn't compromised the only problem is that's the year club's will start using their compensation picks. GWS get only one year of draft concessions but 2 years access to uncontracted players.

As for losing Swanny I personally don't think it will happen, I would be absolutely amazed if GWS targeted him in front of Thomas or Pendles as they are much better players to have as the face of the club. Take a look at Thomas for example in his first season alone his jumper outsold Buckley's at merchandise outlets, GWS are much more likely to target him IMO and what Sheedy said in the paper was more than likely just a ruse. I don't want to lose Swanny but I would prefer to lose him than Thomas or Pendles.

These calls are incredible. I know he's a bit older but I can't believe people would prefer to lose Swan than Thomas. The Pendlebury one I at least understand as Swan is a considerably better player than Pendlebury is still an out and out star and an elite player. There is an absolute chasm between Swan and Thomas as footballers though. Swan is a LOT LOT LOT LOT better. You're comparing a top 5 in the league superstar to someone who isn't even A Grade.

Yes Swan is older but c'mon!!

I think what happened in the Grand Finals has warped people's perceptions. People have forgotten Beams's fantastic year and now all of a sudden he is a borderline selection. Thomas would be a bigger loss than Swan. Macaffer is absolutely undroppable under any circumstances and deserves to be in the 22 for eternity because he had a good Grand Final. Sidebottom's poor 2nd half of the year form didn't exist. It's incredible. I'm glad we won the flag as well but I haven't forgotten the year that built it and the players who lifted the most bricks.

 

[soreplums]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Sign up Pendles, Thomas, Beamer and Sidey- hopefully Swan wins us another flag and a Brownlow and norm smith and Two more B&F's and his value goes ^^^^^^^^^^^^. Wouldn't be the worst for us to lose. We can cover him.

 

[HFF]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Gee, people under-rate the impact of losing superstars.

How can you cover one of the best players in the competition over night? Swanny is a premier mid and ranks in the top 5 of overall players in the comp.

His loss would hurt us, particularly short term when we are challenging for silverware.

There is no guarantee we can "cover him" by finding a young replacement via the draft. The draft is hit and miss.

Swanny is on the verge of champion status. These types are simply irreplaceable.

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Pfft, half of you go nuts when Swanny is constantly underrated by the media and doesn't win the Brownlow, yet you're quite happy to offload him for '2 draft picks'....sweet.

 

[Swooop]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

If Dane goes, he goes and truly best of luck to him. It will be solely his decision at the end of the day.

Agree with the west coast guy, he deserves to make as much as he can, while he can,
IF that's what's important to him.

He's majorly helped us win a flag. He already owes us nothing whatsoever.

He's a fully paid up legend of the CFC already

Look how the doubt stuffed up Geelong this year re Gaz. No thank you to that.

Our strength lately has been our ( relative to most opposition) even list.

Hence losing this one or that one won't hurt us as much as most others.

Two round one picks ( eg a young gun midfielder or KPP) won't hurt us a lot as compo.

So, roughly 50/50, and definitely NOT worth stuffing around next year, will he/won't he like Cats did this year.

We have a flag to concentrate on for next year...and nothing else!!!!

 

[Swooop]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Pfft, half of you go nuts when Swanny is constantly underrated by the media and doesn't win the Brownlow, yet you're quite happy to offload him for '2 draft picks'....sweet.

Frankie, not 'happy to unload him,' but if he goes he goes, just like Gaz.

Seriously, it's his call. IF he decides to go, he'll go.

The question then becomes do you want the constant, ongoing uncertainty to hang over the club like a pall, like it did at geelong this year?

It stuffed them up. Do you want our 2011 to be dominated by will he or won't he?

I don't, because it will distract our focus. Which is back to back. And we should celebrate Swannie in our team next year, not be always looking at him, questioning his future, potentially undermining that crucial thing called morale, again like happened to geelong.

Zero gain wondering about it.

We need to learn a lot from the Gaz debacle and we're mad if we don't.

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Frankie, not 'happy to unload him,' but if he goes he goes, just like Gaz.

Seriously, it's his call. IF he decides to go, he'll go.

The question then becomes do you want the constant, ongoing uncertainty to hang over the club like a pall, like it did at geelong this year?

It stuffed them up. Do you want our 2011 to be dominated by will he or won't he?

I don't, because it will distract our focus. Which is back to back. And we should celebrate Swannie in our team next year, not be always looking at him, questioning his future, potentially undermining that crucial thing called morale, again like happened to geelong.

Zero gain wondering about it.

We need to learn a lot from the Gaz debacle and we're mad if we don't.

Personally I think it is a non-issue and he will sign in the first half of next year. He has all his mates here, his girlfriend, starting a fashion label etc. I really doubt he will go as he doesn't seem the greedy, money hungry type.

I would question the fact that GWS even want him...why would they pay for a 28-29 year old come 2012?

 

[Scodog10]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

These calls are incredible. I know he's a bit older but I can't believe people would prefer to lose Swan than Thomas. The Pendlebury one I at least understand as Swan is a considerably better player than Pendlebury is still an out and out star and an elite player. There is an absolute chasm between Swan and Thomas as footballers though. Swan is a LOT LOT LOT LOT better. You're comparing a top 5 in the league superstar to someone who isn't even A Grade.

Yes Swan is older but c'mon!!

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and yours is extremely valid, however your making the comparisons right now whereas there is every chance that Thomas and Pendles will improve again next year barring injury. But that scope for improvement just isn't there for Swanny, what's he going to do lift it to 35 possessions per game next year? I just can't see it happening.

In terms of value to the team I don't think that Thomas is considerably behind Swan anyway and Pendles is almost on par. The Copeland voting will indicate this and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Thomas is close to Swan at the end as he was probably leading at around round 8 or 9.

I love Swanny but I just think it would be a bigger blow to lose Thomas or Pendles than it would Swan as we've probably seen his best, yet we havn't seen the best of the other two. FWIW I hope and prey we don't lose anyone, but it may just be inevitable unfortunately.

 

[Swooop]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

I would question the fact that GWS even want him...why would they pay for a 28-29 year old come 2012?

Agree, you'd think there was a younger, more marketable type for them.

Hope you're right and then will be a non issue, as you say.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and yours is extremely valid, however your making the comparisons right now whereas there is every chance that Thomas and Pendles will improve again next year barring injury. But that scope for improvement just isn't there for Swanny, what's he going to do lift it to 35 possessions per game next year? I just can't see it happening.

In terms of value to the team I don't think that Thomas is considerably behind Swan anyway and Pendles is almost on par. The Copeland voting will indicate this and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Thomas is close to Swan at the end as he was probably leading at around round 8 or 9.

I love Swanny but I just think it would be a bigger blow to lose Thomas or Pendles than it would Swan as we've probably seen his best, yet we havn't seen the best of the other two. FWIW I hope and prey we don't lose anyone, but it may just be inevitable unfortunately.

I see where you're coming from but the fact of the matter is that Thomas's best has about 1% chance of being up to the level of Swan's. Even if Swan is at his best now, he's still only 25/26. There's no reason he can't maintain this elite form for the next 4-5 years. It is highly unlikely that Thomas will ever reach anything near what Swan is producing right now. A very good early to mid 20s player does not outstrip a superstar mid 20s player in terms of importance to a list.

Whilst Thomas is very good I don't think he has really shown that he has the capacity to be up there with the best in the league. I think Pendlebury is approaching this level now. Didak is there now (but not a possibility for GWS due to age). Realistically Thomas is behind Swan, Didak, Pendlebury, Jolly and Shaw as a footballer right now and is comparable to guys like Maxwell, O'Brien and probably Tarrant. The difference between these guys and Swan is immense. I don't think the fact that Thomas's best is in front of him is at all relevant to the argument to be honest. We haven't seen the best of Wellingham yet either.

 

[Scodog10]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Gee, people under-rate the impact of losing superstars.

How can you cover one of the best players in the competition over night? Swanny is a premier mid and ranks in the top 5 of overall players in the comp.

His loss would hurt us, particularly short term when we are challenging for silverware.

There is no guarantee we can "cover him" by finding a young replacement via the draft. The draft is hit and miss.

Swanny is on the verge of champion status. These types are simply irreplaceable.

Also just to this a lot of what you have said is not based on past events. Over the past 2 decades only 5 superstars have changed clubs.

Greg Williams: Sydney - Carlton. Sydney Grand final 4 years later.
Tony Lockett: St Kilda - Sydney. St Kilda grand Final 2 years later.
Gavin Wangerneen: Essendon - Port. Essendon just 3 years later started one of the most dominant eras of all time.
Chris Judd: West Coast - Carlton. The effect of Judd leaving is very difficult to quantify because Cousins also left at the same time. Chances are if one of them had stayed the Eagles wouldn't have faltered as much.

It may also be difficult to quantify the loss of Ablett to Geelong because they lost their coach at the same time but the likelihood is that they will still be in contention next year.

Superstars aren't replaceable but losing one is not the end of the world. I remember in the space of two years we lost Buckley, Clement and Burns, yet just 2-3 years later we are premiers.

 

[datwhitey]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Personally, I would hate to see any of these three go, but understand that if the dosh is being thrown at them, why wouldn't they take the money and run? I do think Pendles would be GWS' first choice, as he offers all they need, i.e. footbally ability + marketability, etc. so I am wondering (and asking myself this question rather than advocating it), from a "Pendles-retention" point of view, would it make sense for us to draft or rookie either/both of Kris & Ryan this year? I understand that years ago when we took C1 & C2 in order to get C3 we were further away from a premiership, so probably an easy choice then, and now that we are "in our window" things are different. But if we can give Pendles added incentive to stay (on top of a decent salary, a leadership role & the adoration of the Collinwood masses!), we might keep him from choosing GWS during the couple of years when they have an easy shot at players. What are your thoughts (I'm expecting to be shot down here!)?

 

[mattys123]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Surely the solution is to get Swan a job at CGU or Emirates as their "environmental specialist" or whatever dodgy title Judd has.

Then GWS won't be able to even match what we are paying him.

The suggested money won't be as high as most are saying, it will be something like 800-900K a year, meaning if we are paying Swan 600k, it isn't a massive difference, especially if we get "outside assistance", which we will.

Also, expect an Alan Didak like line from Swan, something like "I owe this club too much, they stuck by me when no one else would have, I'm not going anywhere".

Swanny will stay, this is where Eddie will kick into high gear and ensure our superstar stays a pie for life.

I won't change my mind, despite what anyone says, until the day Swan is wearing a GWS jumper (a day I think will never come) I will back Swanny to stay.

 

[Scodog10]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

I see where you're coming from but the fact of the matter is that Thomas's best has about 1% chance of being up to the level of Swan's. Even if Swan is at his best now, he's still only 25/26. There's no reason he can't maintain this elite form for the next 4-5 years. It is highly unlikely that Thomas will ever reach anything near what Swan is producing right now. A very good early to mid 20s player does not outstrip a superstar mid 20s player in terms of importance to a list.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?tid1=5&pid1=1608&tid2=5&pid2=491&type=A&fid1=O&fid2=O

That is a comparison between Swan and Thomas at the same age. Thomas has far more impact on games than Swan did at the same age and has improved with each season. Another good comparison is Thomas and Ablett at the same stage of their careers.

Your are more than entitled to your opinion on Thomas not improving to the extent of Swan, but to say that he has a 1 percent chance of being up to the same level of Swan is ludicrous. I think that if he can produce games like his Grand Finals this year just about every week next year (barring injury of course) it would put him very close to the level of Swan IMO. I still think he can improve on the football we saw from him in those two games anyway.

 

[Smoky]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

Dane Swan is staying.

End of story.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...id1=1608&tid2=5&pid2=491&type=A&fid1=O&fid2=O

That is a comparison between Swan and Thomas at the same age. Thomas has far more impact on games than Swan did at the same age and has improved with each season. Another good comparison is Thomas and Ablett at the same stage of their careers.

Your are more than entitled to your opinion on Thomas not improving to the extent of Swan, but to say that he has a 1 percent chance of being up to the same level of Swan is ludicrous. I think that if he can produce games like his Grand Finals this year just about every week next year (barring injury of course) it would put him very close to the level of Swan IMO. I still think he can improve on the football we saw from him in those two games anyway.

I'm not saying it's impossible and you are of course entitled to your opinion also but but why is it ludicrous? How many players enter the AFL? How many players are there who are better players than Thomas right now? He would have to surpass all but a couple of them to get to Swan's level. That's the thing. I'm not saying that Thomas won't be an A-Grader or that he isn't very good right now but it remains that it is extremely unlikely that he will reach this level.

Also, an age for age comparison is unhelpful. To say that Thomas has tracked similarly to Ablett might be accurate but he would have to become a 70% better player to get to Ablett's level. Thomas has improved solidly to now. Ablett didn't do this. He just literally EXPLODED between '06 and '07. He went from a reasonable player to the best in a game. You don't bank on things like this happening because they are once in a decade occurances. You certainly don't rate a good player as more important than your best player and league wide superstar (would have been the worthy Browlow Medalist this year as the best player in the game) on the "chance" that they might drastically improve their output.

Also, the Swan v Thomas comparison is a bit lopsided on your part. You equate a player getting 0.2 possessions/game more, 1.4 marks/game less, 0.2 goals/game more and 0.1 tackles per game more as having FAR more impact? I would also suspect that Swan got more clearances, goal assists, etc at the same age. You are also talking about a comparison of eras where players get far more possessions in 2010 than they did in 2007. It was a lot easier for Thomas to get 24.0 possessions per game in 2010 than it was for Swanny to get 23.8 per game in 2007. You could also argue that Thomas has less scope for improvement because he has played a lot more games than Swan had at the same age because he was a better junior and a better player in his first year or two. I would argue that Swan was every bit as good a player as Thomas at the same age but that his game has improved a LOT since. Swan's form hasn't come from nowhere, he's been one of our very best since 2006. He has won our last 3 best and fairests (i'm including this season because the season has been played and he will literally shit in the award). He is a 2 time All Australian. He has been a Brownlow favourite at different stages of 2 different seasons. He nearly won the Brownlow in a 3rd season. He was the best player in the entire competition this season with over 800 disposals as a goalkicking, clearance machine inside/outside midfielder. Swan is an out and out superstar and has been for ages, he just hasn't been recognised as such the whole time.

 

[Scodog10]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

I'm not saying it's impossible and you are of course entitled to your opinion also but but why is it ludicrous? How many players enter the AFL? How many players are there who are better players than Thomas right now? He would have to surpass all but a couple of them to get to Swan's level. That's the thing. I'm not saying that Thomas won't be an A-Grader or that he isn't very good right now but it remains that it is extremely unlikely that he will reach this level.

You made a huge call by saying there's a one percent chance that Thomas' best will be as good as Swan's, that's why i thought it was ludicrous. The games he played in GF's 1 and 2 weren't all that far behind Swan's best and have made him more than worthy of A grade status.

As far as rating players best right now I'd have Swan about 3rd in the league (just edged by Goddard because of his performances in both GF's) and Thomas about 15th so to me right now the gap isn't even that wide. Had the All Australian team been selected based on home and away plus finals I believe Thomas would have gotten in.

 

[daics_35]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

How can people say he will be staying for sure. If its true that they have offered him 1.9 mil a season why the hell would he play for us. Its all about the money but I actually think we will lose S.Pendulbry.

 

[Snag Breac]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

But all Dane's little friends are at Collingwood.

 

[Pie eyed]

Re: Dane Swan - GWS?

How can people say he will be staying for sure. If its true that they have offered him 1.9 mil a season why the hell would he play for us. Its all about the money but I actually think we will lose S.Pendulbry.

It's going to be a juggling act to keep the core of the side together but if any organisation can do it I'd be backing the Pies. We have been extremely shrewd and successful off-field the last 3-4 years.

 

[Bay Pie]

Re: All GWS rumour and speculation thread

I have read, when/if the free agency comes in, I think in 2012, the veterans list criteria is also changing.

At the moment it is 10 years at the club and player must be 30. I had seen it mentioned that it would be changed to just 10 years at the club.

In 2012 Dids, Taz & Swanny would all qualify for the Vets list should this be the case. BUt as Mattys said, let Swanny do some ads for CGU and instead of them given us the coin, sling some to Swanny in a Visy type of way.