I have recently decided to waste some time working out how fantastic (or otherwise) our trading has been in recent years. Hours, and one too many spreadsheet pages, later I decided that 2019 and 2018 trades are too recent to look at but trading of future picks makes them relevant. So I started at 2017 and will slowly work backwards. I am not going to post my thought on all trades at the same time as some trades can be quite complicated. So I am aiming to cover 1 or 2 per post.
My prefered methodology is rather simple. Number of games played by the incoming vs the same for the outgoing. Repeat for total Supercoach score. Finally look at average SC score per game. I would prefer the champion data number over SC or DT but as I couldn't get those I settled on SC points. Why points? It's problematic evaluating contribution per game by players, games played is one indicator and for key positions brings a measure of balance to the points system which is weighted in favour of midfielders. But there is a difference between named and warming the bench vs 99% time on ground and man of the match. Imperfect though they may be DT or SC points at least make an effort in this direction. So on to the trades.
2017 Trade 27
A rather straight forward trade to start with. Lachlan Weller demanded a trade to Gold Coast and Fremantle made the best of the situation gaining Pick 2 whilst sending Pick 41 with Wellar. GC took P41 to the draft where the vagures of the draft meant that they drafted Charlie Ballard with P42. Freo of course took Andy Brayshaw at P2
In the three seasons following neither side would be particularly unhappy with the result. Brayshaw played 56 matches over three years for a combines SC score of 4302. Resulting in an average SC score per game of 76.8, an impressive average that puts him higher than most of his peers and presenting the only 'win' that Freo had in this trade. Gold Coast's players combined over the same period to produce 104 games and a total SC score of 7188.
Given the age and performance of all three players I find it hard to see how Andy will ever catch up to the combined contributions of the other two baring injury and delisting. On the flip side Andy's performance per match is very hard to match. Last year's average of 101.3 SC points / game shows his value. Still on the raw numbers Gold Coast might have us here. It certainly wasnt the absolutly one sided deal the media portrayed it to be. And in the cold harsh light of day it has to be said Gold Coast did well out of the trade.
2017 Trade 4
But that is not the last thing to be said about trading for Brayshaw. Pick 41, started life as P40 and it belonged to the Western Bulldogs. We recieved it and Pick 82 when Hayden Crozier told us he wanted to go home to Melbourne and took our 2018 fourth round pick (Eventiually P57) with him. Thankfully this future trade is relatively easy to resolve. In 2018 we traded P34 and a P41 to recieve P30 and P57 in the 46th trade of 2018.
So what about the numbers. The Dogs did well, that future pick (2018 Pick 57) accounted for 22.6% (see followng sentences for methodology) of the value on their side of 2018 Trade 46. When combined with Crozier's numbers they gained 56 games and 3220 points at a respectable average of 57.7 SC points per game. As I said we used P40, which pushed out to P41, before we bundled it up in trade 27. But Pick 41 is only worth 412 AFL trade points vs the 2517 for P2 (16.4% of T27) making this portion of the trade worth 9 games and 706 SC points. It gets worse, we didn't even use P82, the "steak knives" in this trade, just threw it away.
No matter how you look at this, we absolutly got smashed on this trade. Andy is going to be a star for us and I am glad about that but this trade was just bad, start to finish. In an ironic twist, the steak knives sent to the dogs, which we asked to be returned as compensation when trading for P30 in 2018, turned into Lachie Schultz. A win for 2018 maybe but not helping us here.
My prefered methodology is rather simple. Number of games played by the incoming vs the same for the outgoing. Repeat for total Supercoach score. Finally look at average SC score per game. I would prefer the champion data number over SC or DT but as I couldn't get those I settled on SC points. Why points? It's problematic evaluating contribution per game by players, games played is one indicator and for key positions brings a measure of balance to the points system which is weighted in favour of midfielders. But there is a difference between named and warming the bench vs 99% time on ground and man of the match. Imperfect though they may be DT or SC points at least make an effort in this direction. So on to the trades.
2017 Trade 27
A rather straight forward trade to start with. Lachlan Weller demanded a trade to Gold Coast and Fremantle made the best of the situation gaining Pick 2 whilst sending Pick 41 with Wellar. GC took P41 to the draft where the vagures of the draft meant that they drafted Charlie Ballard with P42. Freo of course took Andy Brayshaw at P2
In the three seasons following neither side would be particularly unhappy with the result. Brayshaw played 56 matches over three years for a combines SC score of 4302. Resulting in an average SC score per game of 76.8, an impressive average that puts him higher than most of his peers and presenting the only 'win' that Freo had in this trade. Gold Coast's players combined over the same period to produce 104 games and a total SC score of 7188.
Given the age and performance of all three players I find it hard to see how Andy will ever catch up to the combined contributions of the other two baring injury and delisting. On the flip side Andy's performance per match is very hard to match. Last year's average of 101.3 SC points / game shows his value. Still on the raw numbers Gold Coast might have us here. It certainly wasnt the absolutly one sided deal the media portrayed it to be. And in the cold harsh light of day it has to be said Gold Coast did well out of the trade.
2017 Trade 4
But that is not the last thing to be said about trading for Brayshaw. Pick 41, started life as P40 and it belonged to the Western Bulldogs. We recieved it and Pick 82 when Hayden Crozier told us he wanted to go home to Melbourne and took our 2018 fourth round pick (Eventiually P57) with him. Thankfully this future trade is relatively easy to resolve. In 2018 we traded P34 and a P41 to recieve P30 and P57 in the 46th trade of 2018.
So what about the numbers. The Dogs did well, that future pick (2018 Pick 57) accounted for 22.6% (see followng sentences for methodology) of the value on their side of 2018 Trade 46. When combined with Crozier's numbers they gained 56 games and 3220 points at a respectable average of 57.7 SC points per game. As I said we used P40, which pushed out to P41, before we bundled it up in trade 27. But Pick 41 is only worth 412 AFL trade points vs the 2517 for P2 (16.4% of T27) making this portion of the trade worth 9 games and 706 SC points. It gets worse, we didn't even use P82, the "steak knives" in this trade, just threw it away.
No matter how you look at this, we absolutly got smashed on this trade. Andy is going to be a star for us and I am glad about that but this trade was just bad, start to finish. In an ironic twist, the steak knives sent to the dogs, which we asked to be returned as compensation when trading for P30 in 2018, turned into Lachie Schultz. A win for 2018 maybe but not helping us here.
