Avian Flu

Remove this Banner Ad

Good site for info: Centre for Disease Control:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

Note that we appear to be heading towards Stage 6


Stages of a Pandemic
The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global influenza preparedness plan, which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines WHO’s role and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period

Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Notes: The distinction between phase 1 and phase 2 is based on the risk of human infection or disease resulting from circulating strains in animals. The distinction is based on various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge. Factors may include pathogenicity in animals and humans, occurrence in domesticated animals and livestock or only in wildlife, whether the virus is enzootic or epizootic, geographically localized or widespread, and/or other scientific parameters.

The distinction between phase 3, phase 4 and phase 5 is based on an assessment of the risk of a pandemic. Various factors and their relative importance according to current scientific knowledge may be considered. Factors may include rate of transmission, geographical location and spread, severity of illness, presence of genes from human strains (if derived from an animal strain), and/or other scientific parameters.
 
Anyone with an idea where to get tamiflu via the net? Basically a waste of time trying to get it in the UK.
 
Do a search. I found a number of online Canadian pharmacies that sell it.

I'm seriously considering picking some up as insurance. If it never happens then I'm out a few hundred bucks and I look silly. Better to take the risk of looking silly than burying a family member in a mass grave should the very worst happen.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

I may have missed it somewhere in this thread but how is it transmitted to humans?

Through food or other means?

And I guess simply not eating chicken or turkey and the like wouldn't prevent you getting it if someone else close to you already has it?

Scary stuff indeed, think I may just go lay down for a few months.
 
Lets get some perspective..please.

WorldNetDaily

A recently evolved avian flu virus could mutate and become transmissible between humans, touching off a massive global pandemic, agreed public health officials from more than 20 countries in the Western Pacific region who gathered yesterday.

With one small genetic adjustment in Influenza A, or H5N1, millions of people could die, warned World Health Organization Regional Director for the Western Pacific Shigeru Omi

<snip>

If the virus acquires sufficient human genes, allowing transmission from one person to another, an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million people around the world could die, the WHO estimates.
---------------------------
Basically it needs to mutate before it becomes the major issue we are all fearing.

---------------------
out war on the deadly strain, which has killed at least 57 people.
Since mid-December, 21 have died in Vietnam in 64 cases.

----------------------

So it has a 1/3 strike rate

----------------------------------
The H5N1 virus, which spreads through migratory birds, has plagued poultry populations in Asia since 2003, exposing more humans.

More than 140 million birds have died, and half of the 112 people infected have succumbed to the virus.

Russia is the most recent of 10 countries where the virus has turned up, and it now is threatening Europe, according to WHO officials.

------------------------------------

Ok I do recognise there is an opportunity for an epidemic which could be as big as the 1919 Influenza plague. But remember special circumstances need to be around. eg 1919 a lot of people were displaced by war and weakened by food shortages etc .

To me the increased awareness and medical science being brought to bear on this issue , to me, would limit the amount of deaths. I also feel that like SARS, a country will be isolated if it becomes too big.

My concern is for my job ,the Avian Flu , to me, has the potential to make my job redundant .
 
One step closer:

Indonesia on bird flu alert
By Mark Forbes Herald Correspondent in Jakarta
September 21, 2005


Indonesia has been placed on an "extraordinary" alert after doctors discovered more suspected bird flu victims.

However, the plan to control an outbreak, announced after an emergency meeting of the cabinet, descended into confusion after several ministers and Jakarta's Governor warned it would harm tourism.

The Health Minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, who earlier supported a national alert, said the outbreak was "not like the plague" while the Agriculture Minister, Anton Apriyanto, said there were no plans for mass culls of birds because Indonesians had "high resistance" to the virus.

There was also confusion over whether the alert applied nationwide or only to Jakarta.

Health officials put three more people into quarantine yesterday - two zoo employees and a five-year-old girl - bringing the total to seven. Of the four bird flu suspects earlier taken to hospital, two have tested positive. Blood samples from the other patients have been sent to Hong Kong for testing.

Authorities fear a pandemic would kill millions in Indonesia and across the region.

Mrs Supari said that under the alert, which will last for 21 days, authorities have the power to force suspected bird flu victims into quarantine, adding that the Government had assigned 44 state hospitals to treat bird flu patients, for free.

She said the outbreak was an "extraordinary national case … It's a high alert. Every region is on alert so if at any time it occurs in remote areas, we are ready."

She confirmed health officials had detected two cases of the virus after testing at Ragunan Zoo. The zoo was closed on Monday after tests showed most of its birds were infected.

Authorities in Jakarta have already begun testing birds at slaughterhouses and bird markets.

A team of international experts has flown to Jakarta to oversee the investigation into the outbreak and advise on preventative measures. Australia and other countries are discussing funding a bird cull and providing stockpiles of vaccine.

The World Health Organisation official heading the battle, Dr Hitoshi O********ani, said yesterday the world might have just weeks to combat a pandemic before it caused a catastrophic number of deaths. If the virus mutated to one easily passed between humans, it could be impossible to control, he said.

Jakarta's Governor, Sutiyoso, who attended the emergency cabinet meeting, opposed classifying the outbreak as extraordinary, arguing it would harm tourism and investment.

He said foreign governments might issue warnings against travelling to Indonesia.

The Forestry Minister, Malam Kaban, criticised the closure of the zoo, as it could lead to the culling of all the animals. "We should not hurriedly declare that there is a case of bird flu. The people could be in panic."

Bird flu has killed 64 people in four Asian countries since it was detected in 2003.

Dr O********ani said that in retrospect the SARS had been easy to contain. "The pandemic virus is much more difficult, maybe impossible, to contain once it starts, the geographic spread is historically unprecedented."

Dr O********ani said that between December and February there would be a rapid increase in cases, and the more people struck down, the greater risk the virus would mutate.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/indonesia-on-bird-flu-alert/2005/09/20/1126982062497.html#
 
Dry Rot said:
One step closer:

The Health Minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, who earlier supported a national alert, said the outbreak was "not like the plague" while the Agriculture Minister, Anton Apriyanto, said there were no plans for mass culls of birds because Indonesians had "high resistance" to the virus.
Click to expand...

Oh my God...

Jakarta's Governor, Sutiyoso, who attended the emergency cabinet meeting, opposed classifying the outbreak as extraordinary, arguing it would harm tourism and investment.
Click to expand...

... they don't get it, do they?
 
Another death in Indonesia - now an "epidemic":

Bird flu outbreak an 'epidemic', Indonesia says. 21/09/2005. ABC News Online


[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1465425.htm]
Last Update: Wednesday, September 21, 2005. 3:48pm (AEST)


Epidemic: Avian flu has killed a total of 64 people in four Asian countries since late 2003 (Reuters)

Bird flu outbreak an 'epidemic', Indonesia says

Indonesia has described an outbreak of bird flu in its capital Jakarta as an epidemic after a five-year-old girl suspected of having the virus died.

Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said sporadic human cases of bird flu had surfaced in recent months in and around parts of Jakarta, home to 12 million people.

"This can be described as an epidemic. These (cases) will happen again as long as we cannot determine the source," Ms Supari said, but she insisted it would be wrong to label it a "frightening epidemic".

Four Indonesians are already confirmed to have died in recent months from the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed a total of 64 people in four Asian countries since late 2003 and has spread to Russia and Europe.

The UN health agency last week warned bird flu was moving towards a form that could be passed between human beings and the world had no time to waste to prevent a pandemic.

Ms Supari said the girl who died earlier in a Jakarta hospital today had been suspected of suffering from the virus.

At least six other patients are in the same hospital suspected of having avian flu.

Indonesia sends blood tests from all possible bird flu cases to Hong Kong for confirmation.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono issued a set of instructions on Tuesday to government departments on fighting avian flu.

These included fast action to deal with infected birds and people and the cordoning-off of areas where outbreaks occur.

Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono said Indonesia would conduct a mass cull of poultry where any bird flu outbreak was serious.

"We haven't identified the high-intensive areas but once it is done then there will be (a mass cull)," he said, adding that the Government had sufficient funds.

Officials have previously said the Government did not have enough money for a mass cull or to compensate farmers.

Sardikin Giriputro, deputy head of the government-designated hospital to treat bird flu patients, said the five-year-old girl was admitted on Tuesday.

It would take a few days to test if bird flu killed her, he said.

"The symptoms were heavy pneumonia, the same as bird flu symptoms. Her family confirmed to us that she had contact with dead chickens," Mr Giriputro said.

The Government has appealed for public calm over the virus, which has dominated local media reports in recent days.

All human deaths and suspected cases have been in or around Jakarta.

On Monday, the Government imposed a state of high alert, which gives authorities the power to order people showing symptoms of the virus to be hospitalised.

Economic fallout


Despite growing alarm about bird flu in Indonesia, Fauzi Ichsan, an economist at Standard Chartered in Jakarta, said there was no immediate concern it would hit South-East Asia's largest economy.

"I don't think it will have any effect on the economy," Mr Ichsan said.

"The fact that we are an archipelago means, geographically, the disease might not be as problematic as it is in Thailand or Malaysia, although they have better medical facilities to cope."

International health officials have urged Indonesia to conduct mass culling of infected birds or those thought to have come into contact with infected poultry.

Most of the people killed in Asia since 2003 caught the virus from infected birds.

The latest suspected cases in Indonesia included a worker and two food vendors at the city's main zoo, which was closed this week after tests found some exotic birds in the zoo's collection were infected.

Besides Indonesia, bird flu has killed 44 people in Vietnam, 12 people in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

-Reuters
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

CharlieG said:
An 'epidemic' would have to involve human-to-human transmission, wouldn't it? That article isn't particularly clear on whether that is what has happened.
Click to expand...

This may help - worth a read - note:

"The lack of close contact with suspect sources of H5N1 infections raise concerns that the clusters will continue to grow, signaling a significant increase in efficient human transmission.** The transmission is cause for concern is Jakarta is a major metropolitan city with an International Airport."

Seems the number of cases of suspected human-human transmission is increasing:

Commentary
.
Casual Human Transmision of H5N1 in Jakarta Raises Phase 5 Flags

Recombinomics Commentary
September 20, 2005

The reason for this, according to Minister of Health Siti Fadilah Supari, is that the number of victims is higher following the case of Iwan Iswara, an auditor at the Supreme Audit Agency (BPK), who died together with his two daughters a month ago.

"At that time, there was only one occurrence, that of Mr Iwan and his daughters. But now, there are two others, that of Rini Dina and Mutiara," said Supari during a meeting at her office in Jakarta on Monday (19/09).

Rina Dina died at Bintaro International Hospital on Saturday (10/09), while Mutiara is still being treated at Suliyanto Saroso hospital.

The above comments highlight the increase in human-to-human transmission, but the number of people developing symptoms is increasing steadily and most transmissions appear to be casual.** These casual transmission are cause for major concern.

The first two suspect cases in the current wave suggest infection linked to close proximilty to a slaughterhouse may have cause the initial cases.** Rini Dina developed symptoms on August 31 and was reported to live 100 meters from a slaughterhouse.** One September 6, a 2 month old baby boy, Livo Rusting died of pneumonia.** He had bird flu symptoms and lived above a slaughterhouse, which may have been the same slaughterhouse 100 meters from Rina Dina's home.

However, Rini Dina was a immigration officer and would have little contact with poultry.** Similarly, the 2 month old would not have had direct contact.** Both have died and Rini Dina tested positive for H5N1.

A neighbor was also reported to have developed symptoms, and this was probably Mutiara Gaytri, a 6 or 7 year-old girl who was initially admitted to Siloam Gleneagles hospital in Tangerang and then transferred to Suliyanto Saroso on September 14.** She was also positive for H5N1 Thus, three neighbors appear to have been infected over a relatively short time frame..

However, H5N1 was transmitted further.** Rini Dina's 8 year-old nephew also tested positive for H5N1 and it is not clear if he is Firdaus, a 9 year-old also at the Saroso hospital.** He may not have been admitted yet, but has begun to show symptoms.

As noted above Mutiara Gaytri also transmitted H5N1.** This transmission is said to be to an 18 month old contact with initials RH, who was admitted September 18 in critical condition.

Also admitted that day was Rosani Ningsih a three year old who is also in critical condition,

Early on the morning of September 19, a two or three year old girl named Windy Lisa was also admitted.** She lived near a chicken farm in the northern section of Jakarta.

Today a five year old girl, Riska Ardian, was transferred to the hospital and placed on a ventilator,** She had initially been diagnosed as having measles.

In addition to the steady stream of children being admitted, there are now at least three workers from the Ragunan Zoo, including a 28 year-old tour guide, a 39 year old food vendor, and a 50 year-old trader, who may be the second food vendor described in media reports.** The zoo employees would not be expected to have close contact with the birds at the zoo, who are asymtomatic but have tested positive fro H5N1.** The zoo workers are developing symptoms at about the same time signaling a major up-trend of patients who have bird flu symptoms but don't have direct contact with birds.

The growing familial and geographic clustering of cases in a relatively small area are cause for concern and suggest the pandemic has moved to phase 5, which is characterized by growing clusters of cases.

The lack of close contact with suspect sources of H5N1 infections raise concerns that the clusters will continue to grow, signaling a significant increase in efficient human transmission.** The transmission is cause for concern is Jakarta is a major metropolitan city with an International Airport.

More testing and sequence data would be useful to see if the virus is novel and is a recombinant.** Testing to see if the H5N1 is the same in the zoo employees and the Tangerang neighbors would be useful, as would the sensitivity to the amantadines.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09200504/H5N1_Casual_Phase_5.html
 
CharlieG said:
An 'epidemic' would have to involve human-to-human transmission, wouldn't it? That article isn't particularly clear on whether that is what has happened.
Click to expand...

"The symptoms were heavy pneumonia, the same as bird flu symptoms. Her family confirmed to us that she had contact with dead chickens," Mr Giriputro said.
Click to expand...

id like to think that means it wasnt human to human.
 
Yeah, it was on it. They said something along the lines of it being a high death rate, if it mutates from human to human it will be an epidemic. Australia is unprepared too.

Just out of curiousity, why do these flus always seem to come out of asia?
 
I care about a bird flu outbreak because I will be making the vaccine if it gets to Australia. I will be involved with it when it is in live virus form. One positive for me is that I would think I will have access to antivirals and be protected as much as possible in bio hazard suits and such.

One negative is that I could infect family members even though we would have to go through decontamination.

In the paper last week it said that a vaccine could be out in 4- 6 weeks after a outbreak. Australia does have a stock pile of antivirals for vital workers but there is not much else you can do.
 
For those who want to get some Tamiflu, there’s now been a run on it and Sydney is virtually out of stock, confirmed by Roche. Stuff takes a year to make – they hope to possibly get more in in November.

May still be some stocks in Melbourne and elsewhere, but recent news reports has seen panic buying.
 
new_begining said:
I care about a bird flu outbreak because I will be making the vaccine if it gets to Australia.

In the paper last week it said that a vaccine could be out in 4- 6 weeks after a outbreak.
Click to expand...

From what I've read, doesn't it take up to 6 months to isolate the mutated flu virus, check out some candidate vaccines and get full scale production under way?
 
Dry Rot said:
From what I've read, doesn't it take up to 6 months to isolate the mutated flu virus, check out some candidate vaccines and get full scale production under way?
Click to expand...


They already have a vaccine that still needs to go through human trials that will be done soon. But it can be rushed out if needed.

They are aiming for a vaccine to be available next August.

CSL hopes for 2006 bird flu vaccine
 
new_begining said:
They already have a vaccine that still needs to go through human trials that will be done soon. But it can be rushed out if needed.

They are aiming for a vaccine to be available next August.

CSL hopes for 2006 bird flu vaccine
Click to expand...

Presume that vaccine is based on current bird to human flu - what if it mutates into person-person flu ie a slightly different flu?
 
Dry Rot said:
Presume that vaccine is based on current bird to human flu - what if it mutates into person-person flu ie a slightly different flu?
Click to expand...

It is for the flu that is currently in Asia. If it was to mutate to much they would probably have to start over again.

I don’t know that much though I am only a grunt worker at the bottom level.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Avian Flu

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top