Speculation Bailey Smith

[Pure_Ownage]

So basically you want to offer garbage picks and a garbage fridge player.

Not garbage but it might be someone with potential who isnt b22.

Can i remind you lohmann wasnt b22 when you targeted him either but he looks decent now.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The Dogs would be entitled to suggest to Smith’s manager that if Geelong only intend on offering magic beans, think about nominating Hawthorn …

How would the "magic beans" be any different if the trade was Hawthorn?

 

[Doggy]

How would the "magic beans" be any different if the trade was Hawthorn?

Their first rounder will be better for a start

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Their first rounder will be better for a start

Marginally. It's not really an issue

 

[Doggy]

Marginally. It's not really an issue

Geelong is probably making the top 4.

More than marginal. Hence the magic beans comment

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Geelong is probably making the top 4.

More than marginal. Hence the magic beans comment

There's a fair bit to go before we get there. 2 weeks ago it was 6 selections apart

 

[Biscut]

Righto, I think I’ve come up with the perfect trade. Dogs give us smith, in return Geelong will give up this years first round pick and a 3rd round pick. Wells and co will also slip them a note on draft night telling the dogs who to draft with that pick. It more than likely ends up a rising star nomination!

 

[Bald]

Righto, I think I’ve come up with the perfect trade. Dogs give us smith, in return Geelong will give up this years first round pick and a 3rd round pick. Wells and co will also slip them a note on draft night telling the dogs who to draft with that pick. It more than likely ends up a rising star nomination!

I like this.

Except when we draft with first round picks we don’t miss.

Busslinger will play one day.

 

[sleep]

Often a nomination comes after an understanding is reached on trade value.
It would be poor form from Smith to leave the Dogs open to being slaughtered in a trade …

Where did you hear that?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Unfortunately Dogs fans, there is nothing sure than Geelong getting very good to elite players for very cheap on the semi regular and it's been a few years since Cameron...

 

[Doggy Dan]

Reckon he ends up staying. I’m 63% confident.

 

[FB19]

Reckon he ends up staying. I’m 63% confident.

That makes you 37% correct.

 

[The Inbetweener]

It is an accurate comparison because a top 4 team got it done without any top 15 picks. And this will be similar here.

Yes but it took their future 1st to get it done.

Future 1st, pick 21 and a shuffle of other picks in our favour.

Which isn’t an accurate comparison for what you have said.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yes but it took their future 1st to get it done.

Future 1st, pick 21 and a shuffle of other picks in our favour.

Which isn’t an accurate comparison for what you have said.

No one would expect Brisbane's future first to be top 10 though. That's the difference. For Geelong's future first the only thing I'll rule out is bottom 4

 

[Stevooo3940]

Righto, I think I’ve come up with the perfect trade. Dogs give us smith, in return Geelong will give up this years first round pick and a 3rd round pick. Wells and co will also slip them a note on draft night telling the dogs who to draft with that pick. It more than likely ends up a rising star nomination!

Or a Jhye Clark.... haha

 

[The Inbetweener]

No one would expect Brisbane's future first to be top 10 though. That's the difference. For Geelong's future first the only thing I'll rule out is bottom 4

I Get what you are saying. I’m very confident though that you’ll be around the mark like you always are.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I Get what you are saying. I’m very confident though that you’ll be around the mark like you always are.

Expect a much harder run and more games of experience lost than North did when they turfed out their seniors

 

[FoochPackage]

Cats fans are hilarious. The downplaying of Smiths ability. Now also trying to tell us they will fall off a cliff next year. Classic stuff.

 

[BEEG]

Geelong will give stuff all.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Cats fans are hilarious. The downplaying of Smiths ability. Now also trying to tell us they will fall off a cliff next year. Classic stuff.

Three weeks ago it was a dead certainty that Geelong was in the process of active free fall off the cliff. What changed?

The demographic shift is being cushioned by a few decent kids coming through but it didn't disappear

 

[FoochPackage]

Three weeks ago it was a dead certainty that Geelong was in the process of active free fall off the cliff. What changed?

The demographic shift is being cushioned by a few decent kids coming through but it didn't disappear

10 weeks ago you hadn't lost a game and everyone was marveling at you. You had a small dip which every team has had outside of Sydney. There is no evidence to suggest you will drop off dramatically next year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

10 weeks ago you hadn't lost a game and everyone was marveling at you. You had a small dip which every team has had outside of Sydney. There is no evidence to suggest you will drop off dramatically next year.

Evidence? How about the numbers of players we're losing. Duncan is the only debatable name on my list here for retirement and I'm starting to lean towards him staying on but that's 1600+ games experience lost if he goes.

North melbourne turned into a basket case off losing 1,319

Some numbers on the retirements below and it's stark

To add numbers here too. My 7 players on the "I'll miss you" list have a combined 1,619 games experience.

The total games experience on the list coming into the year was something around 3,890. At the end if the year that tally is going to be 4,396. My 7 names probably play a combined 35 gamesish to see out the year so say we are dropping 1,674. If we're only adding draftees it'll be around a 38-40% reduction in games tally end of year.

We came in as the most experienced team at 88.6 games per player. If we draft to replace and fill the same number of spots we end up with 2,722 games of experience over 44 players for about 61 average games. This year that number would be the same as the Crows, 4th to last. Only Hawthorn, Freo, and North would be less experienced going into '24 as we go into '25 on that basis.

For context, North Melbourne in 2016 had more average games than we do this year. They delisted 1,345 games of experience, so ~300 less than my list. They ended up with a list experience total of 55.8, which was a drop from by far the oldest to the 7th youngest. Harvey did some heavy lifting in those numbers, but their numbers were lower. They won 6 games for the year.

Now I'm not saying we'll be North. But we do need some serious trade ins.

PS: we'd go from 11 listed players currently over 30 to 5 players over 30 by start of 2025

 

[FoochPackage]

Evidence? How about the numbers of players we're losing. Duncan is the only debatable name on my list here for retirement and I'm starting to lean towards him staying on but that's 1600+ games experience lost if he goes.

North melbourne turned into a basket case off losing 1,319

Some numbers on the retirements below and it's stark

List me the 7 that are going at the end of the year and I'm happy to debate with you the relevance of each player.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

List me the 7 that are going at the end of the year and I'm happy to debate with you the relevance of each player.

Maybe let's not clog up a Bailey smith thread. Shall we discuss elsewhere?

Hawkins
Duncan
Tuohy
Bews
Parfitt
Rohan
Stanley

 

[PurpJuice]

Reckon he ends up staying. I’m 63% confident.

As I dogs fan I really hope he doesn’t stay. We need that first round pick(s) to hit the draft or get Barass in. Richards is a significant upgrade on Smith in the middle and West has replaced him in the half fwd role.