- Jun 17, 2019
- 7,941
- 19,573
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Why would it change? Not every club is the Gold Coast and bends over for Geelong.
-
LIVE: Sydney v Port Adelaide - 7:40 / 7:10 Fri
Squiggle tips Swans at 57% chance -- What's your tip? -- Teams on Thurs »
-
LIVE: Geelong v Brisbane Lions - 7:30PM Sat
Squiggle tips Cats at 54% chance -- What's your tip? -- Teams on Thurs »
-
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Prelim Finals
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
Round SF Winner: And_ROOS
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Trade Requested Bailey Smith
- Thread starter Pleasedontfail11
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Kobe Gryant
Lawson Humphries enthusiast
100%.
Obviously we have no say, but mentioned earlier in the thread that if it was me doing the deal I'd be more than happy to give this year's first and next year's first to get 2019 Tim Kelly into our side.
Can't say the same for Smith. He's a very talented footballer, but that's all he is right now, accompanied with an ACL and some unfortunate off-field issues.
Obviously neither of those things are his fault, but it does change the scenario here.
To go really big in these deals you actually need some tangible runs on the board for mine.
- Aug 18, 2018
- 30,268
- 50,827
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Aug 18, 2018
- 30,268
- 50,827
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Of course we wouldn't be interested if Smith wasn't good, but u don't think 2019 Tim Kelly is a remotely close comparison. If you were selling is 2019 TK I wouldn't question it
Because Bailey Smith has not ever been on the level of 2019 Tim Kelly?
Pretty straightforward
I think you know why…
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
In which year did Bailey Smith make the AA team and finish top 5 in the Brownlow?
If your team values Bailey Smith so highly, why have you only offered him a two year deal?
1. All Australian selection is a farce. Every year players miss out who should be in and others dubiously get in. It's not a great yardstick;
2. Your club values him highly enough to make him one of your highest paid players over the next 5 or 6 years.
You can't offer huge contracts then offer dogshit
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,637
- 22,189
- AFL Club
- Geelong
I think the strong interest in Smith, along with a few other decisions we've made recently (and ones that I'm certainly comfortable with at this point) have created an area of attention (certainly not panic stations at this stage) for Geelong 2-3 years from now.
It's been mentioned a bit over recent years that our list has been a bit lopsided with a lot of over 30s still playing key roles and a lot of encouraging early signs from our 2019-23 draftees, but not a lot in the usual prime 24-28 age group. As the years go on and the younger players approach mid-career age, the challenge will be to continue to bring in <21 talent to keep the senior side ticking along. And - at this stage - trading for Bruhn and Henry, targeting mature agers and unconventional backgrounds in last year's anticipated shallow draft and now probably trading out of at least two of the first two rounds of the 2024/25 drafts if we trade for Smith leaves us in the position of not having much proven talent born after 2003 at this stage.
From what I can see on the list the 2004 and later birthday group includes Jhye Clark, Mitch Edwards, Connor O'Sullivan, George Stevens, Ted Clohesy, Phoenix Foster and Oscar Murdoch. They've played 20 AFL games combined, take Clark out and it becomes 4 games. Again, not the end of the world, but something that we do need to be pretty careful about, to make sure we're still bringing in future talent, even in this draft from limited opportunities.
EDIT: Removed Ollie Wiltshire (born in 2002) from the list of 2004 and younger players on our list currently.
It's been mentioned a bit over recent years that our list has been a bit lopsided with a lot of over 30s still playing key roles and a lot of encouraging early signs from our 2019-23 draftees, but not a lot in the usual prime 24-28 age group. As the years go on and the younger players approach mid-career age, the challenge will be to continue to bring in <21 talent to keep the senior side ticking along. And - at this stage - trading for Bruhn and Henry, targeting mature agers and unconventional backgrounds in last year's anticipated shallow draft and now probably trading out of at least two of the first two rounds of the 2024/25 drafts if we trade for Smith leaves us in the position of not having much proven talent born after 2003 at this stage.
From what I can see on the list the 2004 and later birthday group includes Jhye Clark, Mitch Edwards, Connor O'Sullivan, George Stevens, Ted Clohesy, Phoenix Foster and Oscar Murdoch. They've played 20 AFL games combined, take Clark out and it becomes 4 games. Again, not the end of the world, but something that we do need to be pretty careful about, to make sure we're still bringing in future talent, even in this draft from limited opportunities.
EDIT: Removed Ollie Wiltshire (born in 2002) from the list of 2004 and younger players on our list currently.
Last edited:
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,637
- 22,189
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Top 5 Brownlow, runner-up best and fairest in both his years at Geelong. Unquestionably one of the elite midfielders in the league at the time. I'd be amazed if you could find anyone outside one-eyed Bulldogs supporters who thinks 2024 Bailey Smith and 2019 Tim Kelly is a reasonable comparison.
Okay, so let's say the deal doesn't go through. Smith goes somewhere else for nothing. Who's the big loser in that scenario? It's not Geelong.
If the deal doesn't go through he might even stay. He may think that's a far better option than one of the cellar dwellers. Noone knows but I'm sure someone here will pretend they do.
Dogs supporters were not even the ones bringing up Kelly so don't get your knickers in a knot
FB19
Premiership Player
- Feb 2, 2022
- 3,773
- 7,508
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
WTF aren’t Carlton all over him exactly the point of difference their midfield needs. Move one of Kennedy hewett cerra out and bring him in absolute no brainer
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,637
- 22,189
- AFL Club
- Geelong
And that's fine. If that happens, best wishes to him and the Dogs. I'm just saying I'd much rather walk away from the deal altogether, rather than give up a package of this year's first and next year's first, plus this year or next year's second. I don't want to trade our 2025 first round pick (certainly not as a throw-in/sweetener), because I think it has the potential to be our earliest pick that I can remember.
That would be a disaster for our club with the current list profile: it would basically be trading out of the next two drafts and saying that the current list, plus Smith and with 1-2 more years of Dangerfield and 2-3 more years of Stewart and Cameron and every other over 30 player removed, is all we need to be competitive through to the end of the decade. Which would be a pretty wild overestimation of our <25 talent and depth as it stands, in my humble opinion.
Geelong don't even have that many over 30s playing now that won't be there for a while.
It's funny how Geelong supporters have been snitty about opposition supporters saying they might drop off for years and now suddenly when they're a good chance to play in another grand final they're going to drop off and miss the finals next year
Or you could just call a spade a spade and admit you just don't want to pay fair market value for a player but expect first rounders for spuds like Ratagolea
flamin_heck
Debutant
- Aug 18, 2024
- 85
- 228
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
This here is kinda true. They’ve expected heaps for shit trucks and then don’t want to pay for talent. Bailey has injury issues and off field also, but if he’s being offered 5-6 years on good coin then he’s obviously worth a bit. I wouldn’t mind seeing clubs holding the Cats to a higher asking price anyway- 20 years of non stop being up the top they deserve to be clipped a littleGeelong don't even have that many over 30s playing now that won't be there for a while.
It's funny how Geelong supporters have been snitty about opposition supporters saying they might drop off for years and now suddenly when they're a good chance to play in another grand final they're going to drop off and miss the finals next year
Or you could just call a spade a spade and admit you just don't want to pay fair market value for a player but expect first rounders for spuds like Ratagolea
Geelong are very good at finding talent late in draft and from other sources. No reason why that should change.
Some Cat fans seem pessimistic about the future, hence the reluctance to trade a future first I think you'll be fine.
Some of the players you mentioned have shown enough. Plus Mannagh, Knevitt and Conway look like being very good players.
People forget that first rounders have different values. Yes Baz isn’t worth two top tens at the moment, but two picks 16-18 is daylight robbery.
Tim Kelly was worth more and rightfully so, nobody will argue that. But he cost WCE way more than what Dogs will ask for Smith so I don’t see how it’s comparable.
There are many more examples of clubs giving up more than two 16-18 picks for footballers nowhere near Baz’s level, Taranto, Cerra and Shiel come to mind.
Tim Kelly was worth more and rightfully so, nobody will argue that. But he cost WCE way more than what Dogs will ask for Smith so I don’t see how it’s comparable.
There are many more examples of clubs giving up more than two 16-18 picks for footballers nowhere near Baz’s level, Taranto, Cerra and Shiel come to mind.
- Jun 1, 2013
- 1,416
- 2,194
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
This will have to be 2 first rounders from the cats now I would have thought
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,637
- 22,189
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Geelong don't even have that many over 30s playing now that won't be there for a while.
It's funny how Geelong supporters have been snitty about opposition supporters saying they might drop off for years and now suddenly when they're a good chance to play in another grand final they're going to drop off and miss the finals next year
Or you could just call a spade a spade and admit you just don't want to pay fair market value for a player but expect first rounders for spuds like Ratagolea
Sounds like you're accusing me of hypocrisy. It doesn't really work to attribute the opinions of someone I don't even know to me because we support the same football club.
You can go back over my posting history if you like. My predictions and hopes for what we get done during this player movement period have been pretty consistent (going back to before this season started), with 2025/26 shaping up as rebuild years.
I'm not especially interested in importing a plug and play first ruck (even if there were one out there) even though we're looking thin there. I'm not particularly keen on bringing in Jackson Macrae. Even if things progressed and we had any realistic shot at getting him, I wouldn't be interested in Christian Petracca. Simply because I don't think we're a premiership chance next year: whatever happens this year, I think it's the last dance for Dangerfield, Blicavs, Duncan (and even though he probably won't play, C.Guthrie) certainly, as far as competing for a flag.
Once again, if I were in charge, I'd much rather do nothing than pay a top 20 pick this year and a likely top ten pick next year (with one or two seconds thrown in) for Bailey Smith. I'd much rather walk away than overpay for him. Port Adelaide were more than within their rights to do the same for Ratugolea.
Last edited:
- Aug 17, 2006
- 23,637
- 22,189
- AFL Club
- Geelong
I think we'll be fine too. But that doesn't mean we'll continue to buck the trend indefinitely and make finals year after year. There's a trough coming and I think it will be 2025/26 and we hopefully climb again from there (though of course there are no guarantees). And so, I think 2025/26 are crucial draft years for us if we bring Smith in, we probably need five long-term senior players from those drafts. So I'm not very keen on us going ahead with paying whatever it takes for Smith, then winning 8-10 games next year, followed by another 4-5 retirements and - whoopsie - no pick 7-8 because we threw it in to get the Baz trade over the line.
Similar threads
