Trade Requested Bailey Smith

[Snuffaluphagus]

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

The problem is in applying logic to a team that uses voodoo magic to never fall down the ladder like everyone else. You can apply all sorts of reasoning but I'm not buying it anymore until you actually fall down for more than a year. Cats supporters being weary of falling is like Essendon or Freo supporters thinking they can a flag. Cute, but not based in reality.

TWO FIRSTS OR RIOT

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year on top of the youngsters.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

agree with all of this but it's still fun to argue on the internet sometimes.
I dont see a tonne of risk for Geelong though to be honest. They have the ability to attract talent, even if they somehow end up having a shocker in 25 and overpay they're one fo the best equipped clubs to bounce back. Mostly through their ability to retain players and attract new targets and free agents.

I think this is probably the part some Cats fans maybe dont get or possibly can't empathise with, and thats that the Dogs have much more to lose in this deal than Geelong by not getting paid properly. We dont have that ability to just raid free agency next year for some big ticket players or lineup the next big interstate go-homer ina couple of years. We rely on the draft, and the club owes it to itself to make sure Geelong pay what they see as being at least moderately fair. They'll threaten the chaos option and are crazy enough to follow through on it

 

[54Bulldog16]

Yeah I don’t get the losing soooo much experience you’ll fall down the ladder. You didn’t get much out of that group this year and are still playing in a prelim. Add to that natural progression of your younger players, add BS to your mid rotation. You’ll be right, might just sneak into the 8

 

[PurpJuice]

There's room for both schools of thought here I reckon.

PO is massively overdoing it acting like it's a certainty, but he's not totally wrong either.

If you could guarantee the Cats have an identical (or better) injury run next year, then I'd do the deal.

The problem is you can't guarantee that, and that's why they're list managers, and it's why we're guys on a footy forum.

The whole 'cliff narrative' the Geelong posters are talking about has nothing to do with the names on paper.

Adding Smith, as well as another pre-season into the kids will hold us in good stead to compete again if we stay fit.

The worry is our lack of depth. As CatToTheFuture points out, the experience leaving at the end of this year is no joke.

If we cop some injuries it'll literally be draftees taking their spots, rather than Rohan, Parfitt, Touhy, Stanley, Bews, Hawkins & even Duncan, who have been the fringe guys this year.

2023 would be the obvious example. On paper, that side had just as much talent - if not more - than the 2022 model, but if you get unlucky with injuries the drop off is huge.

I can totally understand the Dogs supporters asking for the future first, but by that same token, you have to understand why Cats supporters are wary of giving up the future first. It goes both ways.

It's all academic, as it's not like we have any say regardless lmao.

I can understand completely cats fans wanting to get him for peanuts. The reality is, Bailey was pick 7 who has outperformed Walsh (pick 1 same draft) for most of his career. There’s no doubt he’s a star with proven finals performances, game breaking abilities and X factor.

Whether it’s mutual or not, I can’t think of an example where a club has lost their future midfield star for essentially a second and third round pick. You can scroll up for examples of clubs selling the world for a player not even close to Bailey’s level (Cerra).

Yes there is risk with Geelong trading their f1, but there’s no other way they can satisfy the Dogs to get the trade done. With reports that they’ve been in his ear for at least 12 months, the responsibility is on them to get the deal done after selling the dream.

Sam Power does not care about Geelong’s risk. He’s in charge of making sure the Dogs are not reamed because a club that’s been in contention for 15 years thinks the cliff is coming next year, after adding one of our best young players to their list.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I can understand completely cats fans wanting to get him for peanuts. The reality is, Bailey was pick 7 who has outperformed Walsh (pick 1 same draft) for most of his career. There’s no doubt he’s a star with proven finals performances, game breaking abilities and X factor.

Whether it’s mutual or not, I can’t think of an example where a club has lost their future midfield star for essentially a second and third round pick. You can scroll up for examples of clubs selling the world for a player not even close to Bailey’s level (Cerra).

Yes there is risk with Geelong trading their f1, but there’s no other way they can satisfy the Dogs to get the trade done. With reports that they’ve been in his ear for at least 12 months, the responsibility is on them to get the deal done after selling the dream.

Sam Power does not care about Geelong’s risk. He’s in charge of making sure the Dogs are not reamed because a club that’s been in contention for 15 years thinks the cliff is coming next year, after adding one of our best young players to their list.

You have a habit of making really reasonable points, and then just throwing in hyperbole to ruin it.

Bailey Smith hasn't outperformed Sam Walsh - and even if you believe he had - he hasn't done it since March-May of 2022.

I know it feels like yesterday, but that's an eternity in the footy world.

Cam Guthrie hasn't played good footy since September of '22, and we're almost certain we'll never see that player again.

It's a lifetime ago, and that's without even throwing in the ACL, or the unfortunate off-field struggles.

1 first round pick + 2 second round picks (or equivalent player) is reasonable when you factor all that in.

Nothing coming back our way, except Bailey off an ACL, without playing good football in two years.

Again, academic as nobody has any say in the deal here, but it's a fair deal.

Nobody is getting reamed there. If we were living in 2022 like you appear to be, then it's a different story.

 

[FootyLad0]

Hmm, so long as you are suffering to get GC F1 then ill allow it.

Best we can do is 1 year rebuild.

 

[frggr]

The deal will get done, of course. Who knows what will end up changing hands? But my advice to Geelong would be to tread carefully. Because for an older team, if they make a deal like this and it turns out they've drastically overestimated how their list will develop, it's the sort of thing that can cripple a club for years.

See also: West Coast

 

[PurpJuice]

You have a habit of making really reasonable points, and then just throwing in hyperbole to ruin it.

Bailey Smith hasn't outperformed Sam Walsh - and even if you believe he had - he hasn't done it since March-May of 2022.

I know it feels like yesterday, but that's an eternity in the footy world.

Cam Guthrie hasn't played good footy since September of '22, and we're almost certain we'll never see that player again.

It's a lifetime ago, and that's without even throwing in the ACL, or the unfortunate off-field struggles.

1 first round pick + 2 second round picks (or equivalent player) is reasonable when you factor all that in.

Nothing coming back our way, except Bailey off an ACL, without playing good football in two years.

Again, academic as nobody has any say in the deal here, but it's a fair deal.

Nobody is getting reamed there. If we were living in 2022 like you appear to be, then it's a different story.

You know Cam Guthrie is 32 right?

Bailey Smith is 23. The ACL is the reason Dogs aren’t asking for a top 5 pick. That argument goes out the window when they’re offering him a 5 year deal.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I have no skin in this, just having fun but if I'm Power I am not trading him there unless it's both 1sts. Geelong can risk losing a trade for once and the best run club in the land for nigh on 20 years shouldn't be able to argue they aren't making a prelim AGAIN in valuing it's future 1st.

Pick 15/16/17/18 into God knows what on draft night shouldn't be close

Yeah not saying don't add to the trade, just think they'll put a very high value on it. They traded pretty much every pick they had to prevent trading their future first in the Henry trade and I think they'd do the same here

 

[frggr]

Then they'll probably leave it and let Smith play for Richmond.

That'll do wonders for future players requesting a trade to Geelong, knowing that Geelong will try to lowball and they'll end up playing elsewhere

It will also do wonders for any player thinking of heading to the Dogs and players currently playing for them.

Who has more to lose in that situation and who will prospective players think is 'the bad guy'?

 

[danster168]

can someone tell me why he wants to leave the dogs anyway? it seems to be a widely accepted thing but never explained why

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

It will also do wonders for any player thinking of heading to the Dogs and players currently playing for them.

Who has more to lose in that situation and who will prospective players think is 'the bad guy'?

both clubs will have stink on them in this scenario as much as each fanbase will try to tell the other it's them

Clubs need to get deals done for outgoing players begrudgingly, just as clubs who lure other players need to make realistic attempts to get them in. Anything otherwise and everyone looks like a prick

 

[bzparkes]

It will also do wonders for any player thinking of heading to the Dogs and players currently playing for them.

Who has more to lose in that situation and who will prospective players think is 'the bad guy'?

Well, if they only intend on going to a club, why would they care?

if a club makes overtures to an OOC player and fails to bring them in because they're stingy, no player manager will want a bar of them.

The onus isn't on the club they're exiting from to do everything in their power to get them there, they're gone anyway. Their job is to get the best return, or send a message.

Imagine 10 players request trades to Geelong over 5 or so years and can't land a single one because they try to be smart-arses.

You reckon any player manager will recommend a trade to a club that consistently fails to get a trade done?

Nope.

 

[bzparkes]

can someone tell me why he wants to leave the dogs anyway? it seems to be a widely accepted thing but never explained why

Probably saw how Stengle got shitfaced and had to get an ambulance after a game and nobody gave 2 shits.

 

[Lingsface]

How much is Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

making a year from Cotton On?
Surely we are going to do something to get him a bit more and take it away from our salary cap? Be rude not to.

 

[Revan11]

It ll be 2024 and 2025 firsts, with later pick swaps.

 

[sleep]

Cotton On deal under massive scrutiny by the AFL already.

This whole thing sounds so messy.

No wonder he hasn't nominated yet.

AFL trying to get new garb for themselves.

Nothing to see here.

 

[sleep]

Nup, not copping that "next years is likely top 10". This year is the final straw, your future pick should be valued as 16+ until proven otherwise for like 5 years.

Snuffy needs to keep his Pavlich sized nose out of this.

That Schultz trade was grand larceny and you have the gall trying to be the voice of reason in this thread.

See yourself out.

 

[Rockford]

I'm happy enough with the club offering current and future first rounder and maybe getting some change back.. maybe a second, or even third, in this draft. Then package up the change to trade up somewhere, or maybe get the next Gulden this time because a club doesn't match our bid... then grab a player like Humphreys late on and get another Ollie Dempsey out of the rookie draft... rinse and repeat. O'Sullivan is developing nicely in the VFL, we need to stop being greedy. We don't need to crush our enemies, see them driven before us. The lamentations of their women are getting annoying.
Seriously though, two firsts as a starting point I don't have an issue with. The club will have done their due diligence on Smith's recovery both on and off the field. I think Geelong might offer less than that though.

 

[Lingsface]

I'm happy enough with the club offering current and future first rounder and maybe getting some change back.. maybe a second, or even third, in this draft. Then package up the change to trade up somewhere, or maybe get the next Gulden this time because a club doesn't match our bid... then grab a player like Humphreys late on and get another Ollie Dempsey out of the rookie draft... rinse and repeat. O'Sullivan is developing nicely in the VFL, we need to stop being greedy. We don't need to crush our enemies, see them driven before us. The lamentations of their women are getting annoying.
Seriously though, two firsts as a starting point I don't have an issue with. The club will have done their due diligence on Smith's recovery both on and off the field. I think Geelong might offer less than that though.

McRae and Smith for 1st and 2nd round?

 

[sleep]

I'm happy enough with the club offering current and future first rounder and maybe getting some change back.. maybe a second, or even third, in this draft. Then package up the change to trade up somewhere, or maybe get the next Gulden this time because a club doesn't match our bid... then grab a player like Humphreys late on and get another Ollie Dempsey out of the rookie draft... rinse and repeat. O'Sullivan is developing nicely in the VFL, we need to stop being greedy. We don't need to crush our enemies, see them driven before us. The lamentations of their women are getting annoying.
Seriously though, two firsts as a starting point I don't have an issue with. The club will have done their due diligence on Smith's recovery both on and off the field. I think Geelong might offer less than that though.

Scottys half time address

 

[amazingjoshy]

Cotton On deal under massive scrutiny by the AFL already.

This whole thing sounds so messy.

No wonder he hasn't nominated yet.

‘Can’t rort the system’: Why Smith trade will be under ‘big scrutiny’; likely price for Eagle — Whispers

‘Can’t rort the system’: Why Smith trade will be under ‘big scrutiny’; likely price for Eagle — Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

Sounds like it is. I'm sure it's all fine

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

the age cliff is coming for real guys, trust us next year it's real, definitely top 10 pick. geelong fans say as they simultaneously trade in a 23yo midfielder

Cam Guthrie (33 next year, B&F in our 2020 GF side and our 2022 premiership side) has played four AFL games since Anzac Day 2023.

Patrick Dangerfield will be 35 at the start of next year and only played 14 H&A games - we lost five of the games he missed which indicates how vital he still is to the team.

Mitch Duncan and Mark Blicavs (both 34 next year) are currently nowhere near the players they were in their respective primes. But Blicavs in particular still plays a vital role in the team, just nowhere near as well as he used to.

Shannon Neale (19 career games) is going to be relied on to fill the role that Tom Hawkins occupied for the past 13 years. And there's no clear alternative if his form drops or he gets injured.

Our heir apparent to assume the #1 ruck mantle, Toby Conway, has suffered a litany of injuries throughout his AFL career, culminating in foot surgery to end his 2024 campaign. Rhys Stanley is going to retire. Unless Conway can stay on the park, we're going with a band-aid of Blicavs, de Koning or even Joe Furphy, a category B basketball convert (brother of Johnny). What could possibly go wrong there?

We'll potentially lose Brandan Parfitt, Gary Rohan and Jed Bews, to go with the retirements of Hawkins, Tuohy and Stanley. We may look at trading someone like Mitch Knevitt to facilitate the Smith deal. Leaving us with barely any meaningful AFL experience outside our first choice team. What happens if we have the standard injuries that any AFL team gets, along with the routine unavailability of Guthrie, Dangerfield, de Koning, Conway, even Stewart? Well, to me it looks like we're screwed next year if that happens with the list we expect to have heading into the offseason, plus Bailey Smith and with no meaningful draft picks in 2024 and 2025.

And, of course. it's very foreseeable that it will happen. It's just a lot of people - many of whom were probably joking about how the 2024 Geelong was the worst third-placed H&A team in AFL history - who are now failing to see it.

 

[St 07]

It ll be 2024 and 2025 firsts, with later pick swaps.

Those firsts will be rubbish, they need to throw in more

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

can someone tell me why he wants to leave the dogs anyway? it seems to be a widely accepted thing but never explained why

He asked to leave in his exit meeting. He explained the reasons to the club. He may talk about it in a press conference in the future but until then we are all guessing as to why.