Best attack v best defence....really? (GF week hyperbola)

[Pessimistic]

Many thanks to the squiggle, but the hawks and eagles are so close to each other in both aspects its laughable that a paid journalist and his editor would come up with that headline

Genuine 50 50 game. I hope I feel more confident about the hawks come saturday
For mine the closeness indicates we could have a genuine classic game coming up

 

[WaltzingMatera]

Many thanks to the squiggle, but the hawks and eagles are so close to each other in both aspects its laughable that a paid journalist and his editor would come up with that headline

Genuine 50 50 game. I hope I feel more confident about the hawks come saturday
For mine the closeness indicates we could have a genuine classic game coming up

View attachment 178775

Victorian journalists who have seen WC play just a couple of times a year are now being forced to write articles about them. A lot of them don't even know that Priddis is not captain.

 

[WCE1698]

Gonna be one for the ages.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

when hawks decide to bring their a-game to the G they're close to unbeatable. the only way west coast can win this game is by hawthorn kicking inaccurately. hawks by 30+.

 

[Roby]

In the second half of the year (since round 11) the Eagles have conceded 70 points a game, and only have one game in that time conceded 100+ points, in fact only two games in that time they have conceded 90+ points (both these times it was against the Crows). Only Richmond do better with an average of 69 points per game and only one game 90+, ironically it was their final.


In that same time Fremantle have conceded an average of 76 points per game 5 games 90+
In that same time Hawthorn have conceded an average of 71 points per game and 3 games 90+
In that same time Sydney have conceded an average of 77 points per game and 4 games 90+.


Anyone who has watched the Eagles play all year will tell you how well their zoning defence moves around the ground. They have an excellent setup and move in position very quickly when they don't have the ball.

 

[Hawkk]

In the second half of the year (since round 11) the Eagles have conceded 70 points a game, and only have one game in that time conceded 100+ points, in fact only two games in that time they have conceded 90+ points (both these times it was against the Crows). Only Richmond do better with an average of 69 points per game and only one game 90+, ironically it was their final.


In that same time Fremantle have conceded an average of 76 points per game 5 games 90+
In that same time Hawthorn have conceded an average of 71 points per game and 3 games 90+
In that same time Sydney have conceded an average of 77 points per game and 4 games 90+.


Anyone who has watched the Eagles play all year will tell you how well their zoning defence moves around the ground. They have an excellent setup and move in position very quickly
when they don't have the ball.

Just as a point for comparison...

West Coast Rd 12 - PF
Rd 12 WCE 13.12 90 def Rich 10.10 70 (MCG)
Rd 14 WCE 16.18 114 def Melb 9.6 60 (Marrara)
Rd 15 WCE 22.15 147 def Adel 14.7 91 (Subiaco)
Rd 16 WCE 11.21 87 def Syd 7.14 56 (Docklands)
Rd 17 WCE 15.13 103 def Syd 7.9 51 (Subiaco)
Rd 18 WCE 11.17 83 drawn with GC 12.11 83 (Metricon)
Rd 19 Haw 13.10 87 def WCE 11.8 74 (Subiaco)
Rd 20 WCE 15.14 104 def Frem 11.14 80 (Subiaco)
Rd 21 WCE 25.12 162 def WB 13.7 85 (Subiaco)
Rd 22 Adel 19.12 126 def WCE 10.9 69 (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23 WCE 18.17 125 def STK 4.6 30 (Subiaco)
QF WCE 14.12 96 def Haw 9.10 64 (Subiaco)
PF WCE 10.20 85 def NM 7.13 55 (Subiaco)

Hawthorn Rd 12 - PF
Rd 12 Haw 17.12 114 def Adel 12.13 85 (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 13 Haw 16.18 114 def Ess 11.10 76 (MCG)
Rd 14 Haw 15.11 101 def Coll 12.19 91 (MCG)
Rd 15 Haw 17.13 115 def Frem 6.7 43 (York Park)
Rd 16 Haw 23.8 146 def Syd 7.15 57 (ANZ)
Rd 17 Haw 27.11 173 def Carl 4.11 35 (Docklands)
Rd 18 Rich 10.11 71 def Haw 7.11 53 (MCG)
Rd 19 Haw 13.10 87 def WCE 11.8 74 (Subiaco)
Rd 20 Haw 19.7 121 def Geel 12.13 85 (MCG)
Rd 21 PA 16.12 108 def Haw 13.8 86 (Docklands)
Rd 22 Haw 21.8 134 def BL 9.8 62 (York Park)
Rd 23 Haw 17.11 113 def Carl 8.8 56 (MCG)
QF WCE 14.12 96 def Haw 9.10 64 (Subiaco)
SF Haw 21.9 135 def Adel 8.13 61 (MCG)
PF Haw 15.4 94 def Frem 10.7 67 (Subiaco)

A couple of observations -

- Hawthorn give away a lot of shots, however the opposition is invariably less accurate than Hawthorn. I assume this is due to playing the majority of our home and away games (anywhere from 15-17) at the MCG (171sqm x 146sqm) or York Park (175sqm x 145sqm)...the two widest stadiums in the league. The Hawks push the opposition to take set shots from low percentage angles...
- West Coast take a lot of shots, from these figures you can deduce that West Coast will have more shots at goal than Hawthorn and here is why...

The dimensions of Subiaco is 175sqm x 122sqm. Between Darling, Kennedy, LaCras and co. the Eagles forward line is formidable. They lead the competition for contested marks inside 50 and back themselves to kick goals through sum of opportunities...

Hawthorn by contrast is much more reserved. They hold possession for longer (1st in league), target the flanks and centre the ball inside forward 50 to maximize their position for a shot on goal. While they were 14th for goal kicking accuracy in the first half of the season (49%) they are now back to being #1 in the league (as they were in 2013 and 2014) for goal kicking conversion

It goes without saying that the MCG is much more difficult to zone than Subiaco (or even the Adelaide Oval - 167sqm x 124sqm, Docklands 159sqm x 128.5sqm or Metricon 161sqm v 134sqm) so it remains to be seen just how the Eagles will manage it.

They were very impressive in the Richmond win earlier this season in picking off the Tigers across their half forward line so there is no reason to assume that the web won't work very effectively at the MCG.

Certainly value with the Eagles at 2.40 (I think it should be crunched into a 1.80 - 2.10 game)

 

[Pessimistic]

Easily the worst indicator for hawthorn, two run ons with no response ?

 

[Hawkk]

Not good however as above Subiaco is 24sqm narrower than the MCG.

This game will be a very different game (who knows, the width might help the Eagles run!)

 

[Roby]

Just as a point for comparison...

West Coast Rd 12 - PF
Rd 12 WCE 13.12 90 def Rich 10.10 70 (MCG)
Rd 14 WCE 16.18 114 def Melb 9.6 60 (Marrara)
Rd 15 WCE 22.15 147 def Adel 14.7 91 (Subiaco)
Rd 16 WCE 11.21 87 def Syd 7.14 56 (Docklands)
Rd 17 WCE 15.13 103 def Syd 7.9 51 (Subiaco)
Rd 18 WCE 11.17 83 drawn with GC 12.11 83 (Metricon)
Rd 19 Haw 13.10 87 def WCE 11.8 74 (Subiaco)
Rd 20 WCE 15.14 104 def Frem 11.14 80 (Subiaco)
Rd 21 WCE 25.12 162 def WB 13.7 85 (Subiaco)
Rd 22 Adel 19.12 126 def WCE 10.9 69 (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23 WCE 18.17 125 def STK 4.6 30 (Subiaco)
QF WCE 14.12 96 def Haw 9.10 64 (Subiaco)
PF WCE 10.20 85 def NM 7.13 55 (Subiaco)

Hawthorn Rd 12 - PF
Rd 12 Haw 17.12 114 def Adel 12.13 85 (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 13 Haw 16.18 114 def Ess 11.10 76 (MCG)
Rd 14 Haw 15.11 101 def Coll 12.19 91 (MCG)
Rd 15 Haw 17.13 115 def Frem 6.7 43 (York Park)
Rd 16 Haw 23.8 146 def Syd 7.15 57 (ANZ)
Rd 17 Haw 27.11 173 def Carl 4.11 35 (Docklands)
Rd 18 Rich 10.11 71 def Haw 7.11 53 (MCG)
Rd 19 Haw 13.10 87 def WCE 11.8 74 (Subiaco)
Rd 20 Haw 19.7 121 def Geel 12.13 85 (MCG)
Rd 21 PA 16.12 108 def Haw 13.8 86 (Docklands)
Rd 22 Haw 21.8 134 def BL 9.8 62 (York Park)
Rd 23 Haw 17.11 113 def Carl 8.8 56 (MCG)
QF WCE 14.12 96 def Haw 9.10 64 (Subiaco)
SF Haw 21.9 135 def Adel 8.13 61 (MCG)
PF Haw 15.4 94 def Frem 10.7 67 (Subiaco)

A couple of observations -

- Hawthorn give away a lot of shots, however the opposition is invariably less accurate than Hawthorn. I assume this is due to playing the majority of our home and away games (anywhere from 15-17) at the MCG (171sqm x 146sqm) or York Park (175sqm x 145sqm)...the two widest stadiums in the league. The Hawks push the opposition to take set shots from low percentage angles...
- West Coast take a lot of shots, from these figures you can deduce that West Coast will have more shots at goal than Hawthorn and here is why...

The dimensions of Subiaco is 175sqm x 122sqm. Between Darling, Kennedy, LaCras and co. the Eagles forward line is formidable. They lead the competition for contested marks inside 50 and back themselves to kick goals through sum of opportunities...

Hawthorn by contrast is much more reserved. They hold possession for longer (1st in league), target the flanks and centre the ball inside forward 50 to maximize their position for a shot on goal. While they were 14th for goal kicking accuracy in the first half of the season (49%) they are now back to being #1 in the league (as they were in 2013 and 2014) for goal kicking conversion

It goes without saying that the MCG is much more difficult to zone than Subiaco (or even the Adelaide Oval - 167sqm x 124sqm, Docklands 159sqm x 128.5sqm or Metricon 161sqm v 134sqm) so it remains to be seen just how the Eagles will manage it.

They were very impressive in the Richmond win earlier this season in picking off the Tigers across their half forward line so there is no reason to assume that the web won't work very effectively at the MCG.

Certainly value with the Eagles at 2.40 (I think it should be crunched into a 1.80 - 2.10 game)

There is no doubt the Eagles are 4+ goal better side at home than when they play away. I mean they should've lost to Gold Coast reserves (drew), smashed by Adelaide, beaten by North. Eagles average nearly 70 point margins in their home wins.

That's why the odds are they way there are. They haven't moved since Saturday (which is unusual), maybe because I haven't posted tips or bets. Or maybe there is that much money on the Hawks the bookies want the Eagles money.

 

[cryptor]

View attachment 178806

Easily the worst indicator for hawthorn, two run ons with no response ?

I count one run-on with no response - in the 2nd quarter. The 3rd quarter run-on is answered in the 4th quarter.

 

[Anoncomment]

I read the title and got excited, but I am disappoint. Where is the hyperbola?

 

[smeltitdeltit]

There is no doubt the Eagles are 4+ goal better side at home than when they play away. I mean they should've lost to Gold Coast reserves (drew), smashed by Adelaide, beaten by North. Eagles average nearly 70 point margins in their home wins.

That's why the odds are they way there are. They haven't moved since Saturday (which is unusual), maybe because I haven't posted tips or bets. Or maybe there is that much money on the Hawks the bookies want the Eagles money.

how much a better side are the hawks at the G to domain?

 

[Eastern Rangers]

There is also no reason to suggest that West Coast forwards won't also benefit from the wide spaces found inside the 50 arch at the MCG.


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I count one run-on with no response - in the 2nd quarter. The 3rd quarter run-on is answered in the 4th quarter.

You mean where the Eagles got up by 50+ and switched off into rest mode, highlighted by having 5 players on the bench for the last 5 minutes.

 

[cryptor]

You mean where the Eagles got up by 50+ and switched off into rest mode, highlighted by having 5 players on the bench for the last 5 minutes.

Sorry, my mistake. West Coast locks for premiers. Theirs to lose with a fit and rested young list against the weary Hawks who are too old and too slow.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Sorry, my mistake. West Coast locks for premiers. Theirs to lose with a fit and rested young list against the weary Hawks who are too old and too slow.

Not at all. We'll probably be carved up and I'll be crying in the stands, but that doesn't change the facts of the game that has already happened.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I hope I feel more confident about the hawks come saturday

Well, well, aren't you living up to your username.

 

[cryptor]

Not at all. We'll probably be carved up and I'll be crying in the stands, but that doesn't change the facts of the game that has already happened.

Haha just playing. And if it does go down like that then you'll be understandably upset so I won't patronise you by saying don't be. But you should consider where you are now relative to where you expected last year. You'd have to be favourites going into 2016 with MacKenzie and Brown returning given it frees McGovern to play loose and Yeo to play midfield more again.

 

[Hawkk]

Not at all. We'll probably be carved up and I'll be crying in the stands, but that doesn't change the facts of the game that has already happened.

You are Hawthorn 2008

This is probably the best GF as a supporter as the ascent is always more enjoyable than the peak!

Embrace it and come what may...

One thing is for sure, no club has the marking forwards and raw ascendency in the ruck divisions to go with you. Youll get enough shots to salute...convert those chances and the flag will probably head west

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

Sorry, my mistake. West Coast locks for premiers. Theirs to lose with a fit and rested young list against the weary Hawks who are too old and too slow.

Why do some of you Hawks supporters take such umbrage to the fact you were outplayed in the QF?

It's evident you were, yet you just shut down with petty responses like 'West coast locks for premiers111!!!.'

NB Some of the Hawks fans in this thread is Hawkk are quite good.

 

[cryptor]

Why do some of you Hawks supporters take such umbrage to the fact you were outplayed in the QF?

It's evident you were, yet you just shut down with petty responses like 'West coast locks for premiers111!!!.'

NB Some of the Hawks fans in this thread is Hawkk are quite good.

Read my post just above. I was being facetious.

I'll admit we were thoroughly out played in that game. I'm not going to sook about it. Why would I? We still got to the GF and I'd be astounded if we played that poorly again. And yes your pressure contributed to that poor performance but only partially.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Read my post just above. I was being facetious.

I'll admit we were thoroughly out played in that game. I'm not going to sook about it. Why would I? We still got to the GF and I'd be astounded if we played that poorly again. And yes your pressure contributed to that poor performance but only partially.

So what was the main contributing factor?

 

[Rotayjay]

Eagles. Just.

 

[cryptor]

So what was the main contributing factor?

I don't know what the 'main' one was but there were a few...
- general poor form stretching back to the Port loss in round 21. Weren't impressive against Lions or Blues.
- preparation was poor. We weren't tested to the intensity that West Coast threw at us in our last couple weeks (and that's not hindsight. Many on our board were wary of our soft finish after seeing what it did for Swans in the 2014 finals)
- Hodge was playing within his shell and while he got some touches in the second half he wasn't leading like he does when we play well
- they were intimidated. Lewis admitted as much. They let the crowd noise get to them and it compounded the pressure West Coast applied.
- poor coaching. There were a few really bad choices but none worse than having Frawley play up forward for the first half while Lake struggled to stay with Kennedy

I think (and hope) all these things have been rectified since we last played so while pressuring us again will be something that will contribute to you winning, it alone won't guarantee it.

 

[Hawkk]

There is no doubt the Eagles are 4+ goal better side at home than when they play away. I mean they should've lost to Gold Coast reserves (drew), smashed by Adelaide, beaten by North. Eagles average nearly 70 point margins in their home wins.

That's why the odds are they way there are. They haven't moved since Saturday (which is unusual), maybe because I haven't posted tips or bets. Or maybe there is that much money on the Hawks the bookies want the Eagles money.

This is a pretty reasonable point...

West Coast's record at Subiaco - 12 wins, 2 losses 1594/903 (174.3%)
West Coast's record away from Subiaco - 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses 932/788 (118%)

Of West Coast's 10 games away from Subiaco, the Eagles played at the following venues -

Docklands (159sqm x 128.5sqm) - 2 wins, 1 loss 305/231 (133%)
Adelaide Oval (167sqm x 124sqm) - 1 win, 1 loss 147/194 (75.77%)
MCG (171sqm x 146sqm) - 1 win, 0 losses 90/70 N/A
Marrara Oval (I can't get anyone to confirm the dimensions?) - 1 win, 0 losses 114/60 N/A
Metricon Stadium (161sqm x 134sqm) - 1 draw 83/83 N/A
Bellrieve Oval (175sqm x 135sqm) - 0 wins, 1 loss 75/85 N/A

Hawthorn's record at the MCG and York Park - 11 wins, 3 losses 1536/904 (169.11%)
Hawthorn's record away from MCG / York Park - 7 wins, 3 losses 1216/868 (140%)

Of Hawthorn's 11 games away from the MCG / York Park...

Docklands (159sqm x 128.5sqm) - 3 wins, 1 loss 521/282 (184%)
Subiaco (175sqm x 122sqm) - 2 wins, 1 loss 246/237 (103.7%)
Adelaide Oval (167sqm x 124sqm) - 1 win, 1 loss 205/184 (111.4%)
ANZ Stadium (170sqm x 128sqm) - 1 win, 0 losses 146/57 N/A
Showgrounds (160sqm x 134sqm) - 0 wins, 1 loss 98/108

That's not to say West Coast can't and won't adapt to the wide expanses of the MCG, on paper they have the ruck division and forward line to expose Hawthorn if they opt for a shootout.

The width of the ground is the major reason why Hawthorn exposes Fremantle time and again at the MCG / York Park however West Coast have the firepower to match Hawthorn if the game opens up anyway...

Its a bit ironic that the non Victorian clubs complain about York Park (175sqm x 145sqm) when it is the closest venue the AFL has to the MCG (171sqm x 146sqm) in terms of size and dimensions.

It's also a major reason why Hawthorn's agreement with Tasmania has worked so well for the club given they typically play anywhere from 70% to 80% of their Victorian fixtures at the MCG...it basically means the club has anywhere from 70% to 80% of their home and away games on a venue with the same dimensions as the MCG