BBL Big Bash Finals Maths

[eth-dog]

Thought I'd separate this discussion from the debate of whether or not the BBL is any good. Looking at the fixtures, points and everything I think it's a race in 5 as to who can make it but there are probably ways for the bottom 3 to make it still and I will try to find them.

1. Brisbane Heat (7 games, 12 points). Remaining fixtures: Hobart (H), Perth (H), Perth (A). I'm pretty sure it's mathematically impossible for them to miss given that Hobart and the Stars play each other so both can't overtake them, same with the Sixers and Stars. Need to beat Perth both times to secure top spot and the home Qualifying Final in all likelihood
2. Perth (5 games, 9 points). Remaining fixtures: Adelaide (A), Thunder (A), Brisbane (A), Brisbane (H), Sixers (H). Hard to see them miss, would basically have to lose 4 of their last 5 and results to fall against them, and with them playing two of the bottom 3 next couple I can't really see them missing.
3. Sydney Sixers (7 games, 8 points). Remaining fixtures: Stars (A), Thunder (H), Perth (A). Massive next game, lose and they could miss for Hobart. Perth in Perth in Perth is a tough assignment to win to make finals.
4. Melbourne Stars (7 games, 8 points). Remaining fixtures: Sixers (H), Renegades (A), Hurricanes (H). Win their next match and they probably make it, lose it and it could come down to the last game against Hobart. Only need to win 2 to make it if my maths is correct, and have hit a rich vein of form recently.
5. Hobart Hurricanes (5 games, 4 points). Remaining fixtures: Renegades (A), Brisbane (A), Adelaide (A), Adelaide (H), Stars (A). Realistically the only team that can pass the Stars or Sixers, but they can really only afford one loss to still make it. If they beat the Renegades and Adelaide twice then that last game is massive.
6. Sydney Thunder (6 games, 3 points). Remaining fixtures: Perth (H), Sixers (A), Adelaide (H), Renegades (H). Pretty much have to win all four with the Sixers losing all three, and Hobart losing two games. If they can pull off a massive upset against Perth they might start believing.
7. Melbourne Renegades (7 games, 3 points). Remaining fixtures: Hobart (H), Stars (H), Thunder (A). Need to win all three with Hobart losing 3, and either the Sixers or Stars going winless from here, for them ideally the Sixers as it allows the Stars to beat Hobart in the last game.
8. Adelaide Strikers (6 games, 3 points). Remaining fixtures: Perth (H), Hobart (H), Hobart (A), Thunder (A). Need to win all four, have the Sixers or Stars win one more at most.

I think it ends up as:

QF: Perth vs Brisbane, Perth Stadium
EF: Stars vs Sixers, MCG

 

[sohohoho]

I did some work on this the other day, have just updated with last nights results.
I have my own ratings for each team which give me probabilities for upcoming fixtures, these were the teams average wins

Scorchers 7
Heat 6.4
Stars 5.4
Sixers 4.6
Hurricanes 4.5
Thunder 2.8
Strikers 2.7
Renegades 2.4

My tiers for teams were as follows
Scorchers
gap
Heat
Sixers
Canes/Thunder/Stars
gap
Gades/Strikers


Scorchers a 42% chance to win it for me

 

[Hamingja]

Canes stiff they have to play Adelaide twice with Head and Carey back.

 

[sohohoho]

Canes stiff they have to play Adelaide twice with Head and Carey back.

not too bad given Strikers batting was already their only strength

 

[Hamingja]

not too bad given Strikers batting was already their only strength

With Harry Neilsen they are basically playing with 10 men. Heavily compromised fixture when all other teams in finals calculations have already got to play them twice without their two best players.

 

[Tugga27]

Canes stiff they have to play Adelaide twice with Head and Carey back.

Do you know if all of the test players with BBL contract will be available or just some?

It never seems clear to me.
The Scorchers could do with MM.

 

[Hamingja]

Do you know if all of the test players with BBL contract will be available or just some?

It never seems clear to me.
The Scorchers could do with MM.

It always just seems to be some. MM would usually be the type of guy they would cotton wool but if they want to give the finals a boost marketing wise they might let him play.

 

[Tugga27]

It always just seems to be some. MM would usually be the type of guy they would cotton wool but if they want to give the finals a boost marketing wise they might let him play.

I wouldn't have thought any players would be available for the finals seeing as it's in the middle of the WI tour.

I thought one or two might be available now for a few days.

 

[sohohoho]

I wouldn't have thought any players would be available for the finals seeing as it's in the middle of the WI tour.

I thought one or two might be available now for a few days.

Yeah it was always only going to be this week they potentially were going to be available.
The communication in this league is terrible however so no one ever knows.
They have confirmed Smith will play in the derby vs Warner but that is it I think

 

[Tugga27]

Yeah it was always only going to be this week they potentially were going to be available.
The communication in this league is terrible however so no one ever knows.
They have confirmed Smith will play in the derby vs Warner but that is it I think

I thought I read somewhere that Lyon will play a game as well.
Someone on here posted that Carey and Head also.

This is an excerpt from the Herald Sun today.

"The precise BBL availability of Australian players between the Pakistan and West Indies Test series remains unclear."

Why is it unclear?
Just give a cut off date and leave it up to the players.
It's not hard.

 

[eth-dog]

Carey playing one game, Head none.

 

[Cleavy]

Khawaja, Labuschagne and Carey available for BBL cameos

Travis Head has been rested by Cricket Australia ahead of the West Indies Test series

www.espncricinfo.com

it's all over the shop really, due to scheduling and "management".

 

[eth-dog]

Thunder all but out.

Need to win all three (including the Sixers in third), have Adelaide win 2/3, Hobart to only beat Stars, and the Stars to also lose to the Renegades whilst gaining 0.203 NRR on Adelaide.

Adelaide need to win all three and have the Stars lose at least one.

Hobart needs to win 2, and one needs to be the Stars or hope the Renegades beat them.

 

[eddiesmith]

I thought I read somewhere that Lyon will play a game as well.
Someone on here posted that Carey and Head also.

This is an excerpt from the Herald Sun today.

"The precise BBL availability of Australian players between the Pakistan and West Indies Test series remains unclear."

Why is it unclear?
Just give a cut off date and leave it up to the players.
It's not hard.

Lyon isn’t allowed to play because they have to arrive a day early for training…

Luckily though it just happens to be the day after the Sydney derby…

Lyon was also ‘managed’ earlier in the year and not allowed to play v Sydney, whilst Steve Smith played…

 

[eth-dog]

Thunder all but out.

Need to win all three (including the Sixers in third), have Adelaide win 2/3, Hobart to only beat Stars, and the Stars to also lose to the Renegades whilst gaining 0.203 NRR on Adelaide.

Adelaide need to win all three and have the Stars lose at least one.

Hobart needs to win 2, and one needs to be the Stars or hope the Renegades beat them.

Nothing has changed here. Either Adelaide or Hobart will be knocked out tomorrow night

 

[MarcusP2]

Nothing has changed here. Either Adelaide or Hobart will be knocked out tomorrow night

Hobart gone.

 

[eth-dog]

Hobart gone.

Yep. Thunder now need to win their last 3 and have a big win in at least one of them and hope the Stars lose their last two

Sixers can still miss as well, if they lose their last two, and both the Stars and Strikers win their last two, Melbourne will host Adelaide in the elimination final

 

[eth-dog]

And then there were 2...

 

[Cleavy]

bye Stars