King Brown
Club Legend
- Aug 12, 2017
- 2,582
- 3,763
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #126
By their nature black swan events are meant to be unpredictable.
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Society/Culture Bitcoin
- Thread starter nut
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
I can't be bothered to even enrol to vote, so I don't think politics is my calling.
BEaston
Hungry
- Oct 9, 2013
- 12,055
- 16,545
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Made a fair bit of easy cash. Have now decreased my holdings as the landscape has changed.
Blockchain is here to stay though, without a doubt. There are some good cryptos around still with practical uses. If any serious coin is to be made now it will be in picking the winners.
Blockchain is here to stay though, without a doubt. There are some good cryptos around still with practical uses. If any serious coin is to be made now it will be in picking the winners.
King Brown
Club Legend
- Aug 12, 2017
- 2,582
- 3,763
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #130
I think you’ve missed the point of what “black swan” means.
King Brown
Club Legend
- Aug 12, 2017
- 2,582
- 3,763
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #132
You don’t know what unpredictable means do you. If something is “predicted” then by its nature it is not unpredictable.
Darkyprotector
Premiership Player
- Apr 10, 2017
- 4,871
- 2,379
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
This smells of con
Who in their right mind would put their superannuation into this
Great for crims
Who in their right mind would put their superannuation into this
Great for crims
Chief
~ Shmalpha ~
- Admin
- #134
Live look into that guy who bought 15 million worth of BitCoin ATMs to put around Sydney.
Nah money laundering will make him heaps.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
King Brown
Club Legend
- Aug 12, 2017
- 2,582
- 3,763
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Banned
- #136
Yes, this is explained by Taleb:
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
Taleb has also constantly said there are few Black Swans in finance. He has repeatedly said at length that the GFC was not a Black Swan.
To Taleb, the creation and success of Bitcoin (or the blockchain) would be the Black Swan. Not it's bubble.
think he is saying events previously thought to be black swan no longer become black swan. Everything in this world is theoretically predictable as the universe is deterministic. Its just whether man has the information to be able to predict it.
- Jun 22, 2008
- 24,580
- 21,287
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Work with two guys. They've both put a tiny amount of money in, one put in $150 the other $60. They talk about it all day and spend all day looking at their phones.The $150 man talks about it buying him his $30,000 Harley. $60 man thinks it's going to explode like Bitcoin and pay his $400,000 mortgage and put his kids through private school and uni. If his value drops a few dollars he sounds like he's been asked to surrender his first born or donate an organ or limb.
$150 man, I'm $500 in front, no I'm $100 in front, now it's $300. I asked him if he could get it out. He said yep, sure, anytime he liked, it was like an atm. I asked if he'd actually taken any out or tried to. He said that he hadn't, but he'd tried and he must have done something wrong because he couldn't get it.
A pair of absolute muppets.
$150 man, I'm $500 in front, no I'm $100 in front, now it's $300. I asked him if he could get it out. He said yep, sure, anytime he liked, it was like an atm. I asked if he'd actually taken any out or tried to. He said that he hadn't, but he'd tried and he must have done something wrong because he couldn't get it.
A pair of absolute muppets.
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
I wonder where it goes next month?
RupieDupie
Guru
- Jun 30, 2017
- 4,228
- 3,499
- AFL Club
- GWS
A bit of pump n’ dump, like what happens with everything that could be beautiful in society, invariably it is destroyed by greed.
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
it makes me smile that people buy into a currency and see it run like an investment but pile in anyway. good luck to those making money in a ponzi scheme but the losers shouldn't whinge on the way down.
RupieDupie
Guru
- Jun 30, 2017
- 4,228
- 3,499
- AFL Club
- GWS
Investment (=munny) ruins everything
- May 5, 2006
- 62,757
- 70,116
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Bitcoin spruikers are worse than vegans. At least vegans understand what they are talking about.
It's amazing the number of people who are converts to the future of blockchain that don't know what a blockchain is.
There's also seemingly a lot of people buying to some kind of anti-establishment revolution while simultaneously counting their (on paper) establishment money.
It's amazing the number of people who are converts to the future of blockchain that don't know what a blockchain is.
There's also seemingly a lot of people buying to some kind of anti-establishment revolution while simultaneously counting their (on paper) establishment money.
- Mar 25, 2003
- 35,681
- 28,341
In serious decline now. Was always going to happen at some point.
Well done to all those who got in early, but there's going to be a lot of tears from people that got in around November and December just past.
As someone who's been following bitcoin and as far more interested in the technology behind it than the actual value of it (although I did make a bit of cash a few years back but hardly enough to write home about), I can't help but have a wry smirk at all the bitcoin experts that suddenly sprung up over the last few months that in reality actually know nothing about it other than it was once worth a few cents each, then exploded and each bitcoin is now are worth $10,000.
Wouldn't be surprised if the value drops back under $1000 US soon.
Well done to all those who got in early, but there's going to be a lot of tears from people that got in around November and December just past.
As someone who's been following bitcoin and as far more interested in the technology behind it than the actual value of it (although I did make a bit of cash a few years back but hardly enough to write home about), I can't help but have a wry smirk at all the bitcoin experts that suddenly sprung up over the last few months that in reality actually know nothing about it other than it was once worth a few cents each, then exploded and each bitcoin is now are worth $10,000.
Wouldn't be surprised if the value drops back under $1000 US soon.
- May 5, 2006
- 62,757
- 70,116
- AFL Club
- West Coast
The thing is that the only thing giving it value is people pumping money into it. There's nothing to say it should be worth 1c, $100 or $1m per coin. It's dotcom 2.0, with the exception that shares are intended to be income generating.
The problem for the cult of BTC is that now it's seen USD20k anyone with a decent amount of them isn't interested in what they were worth over the last 5 or 6 years. They're convinced that it's all "FUD" and you should "HODL" because they will keep going up and up. It's a bit of a catch 22 IMO. The only way any of these things will ever be widely accepted (ignoring the whole decentralised system, trying to get around the man thing which will never work long term) is with stability, and once they are stable they stop being interesting to invest in.
Agree 100% about how many 'experts' there are. I've heard that blockchain is great plenty of times, but not one person that thinks it is great has explained to me what it is, how it works or what its value should be.
The problem for the cult of BTC is that now it's seen USD20k anyone with a decent amount of them isn't interested in what they were worth over the last 5 or 6 years. They're convinced that it's all "FUD" and you should "HODL" because they will keep going up and up. It's a bit of a catch 22 IMO. The only way any of these things will ever be widely accepted (ignoring the whole decentralised system, trying to get around the man thing which will never work long term) is with stability, and once they are stable they stop being interesting to invest in.
Agree 100% about how many 'experts' there are. I've heard that blockchain is great plenty of times, but not one person that thinks it is great has explained to me what it is, how it works or what its value should be.
Oh a lot of them know, they just hate government telling them what to do, and I think the Bitcoin popularity was a response to the Quantitative Easing that they saw as devaluing their wealth.
But yeah a lot have got no idea as well.
- Mar 25, 2003
- 35,681
- 28,341
As it's not simply a two line explanation do you need to know? I am happy to explain but it's not a really two minute job. I work in software development so am familiar with it, although haven't done anything blockchain related for about a year now and there has been quite a few advancements in it. Can't really be ****ed going into any detail if you are already familiar.
As for it's potential uses I often see it written that it's a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. I agree with that to an extent. You got a tech meetup and every second ****ing developer says I got an idea and I'm going to use blockchain to implement. They don't stop to think about whether it's the right technology. But it's the buzzword in tech circles. Me and a mate started writing an online voting application (it was not an original idea) based on blockchain a couple of years ago but we ended up getting bogged down in paid work. But that is one area I believe is a great use of blockchain. https://followmyvote.com/ is currently leading the race in this area. Worth noting the lead developer Brian Fox is one of the most well known software engineers in the world.
Medial records, financial contracts, fraud prevention, charity funding distribution and IT security are a few examples of potential blockchain uses I could see. There's no shortage of articles written about potential uses. Basically if there is a system where is data is stored by only one or two actors (the parties within a transaction), then there is a potential to secure that data from manipulation through a distributed ledger.
